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AbstractObjectiveTo assess the immediate impact of the introduction of minimum unit pricing in Scotland on household alcohol purchases.DesignControlled interrupted time series analysis.SettingPurchase data from Kantar Worldpanel’s household shopping panel for 2015-18.Participants5325 Scottish households, 54 807 English households as controls, and 10 040 households in northern England to control for potential cross border effects.InterventionsIntroduction of a minimum price of 50p (€0.55; $0.61) per UK unit (6.25p per gram) for the sale of alcohol in Scotland on 1 May 2018.Main outcome measuresPrice per gram of alcohol, number of grams of alcohol purchased from off-trade by households, and weekly household expenditure on alcohol.ResultsThe introduction of minimum unit pricing in Scotland was associated with an increase in purchase price of 0.64p per gram of alcohol (95% confidence interval 0.54 to 0.75), a reduction in weekly purchases of 9.5 g of alcohol per adult per household (5.1 to 13.9), and a non-significant increase in weekly expenditure on alcohol per household of 61p (−5 to 127). The increase in purchase price was higher in lower income households and in households that purchased the largest amount of alcohol. The reduction in purchased grams of alcohol was greater in lower income households and only occurred in the top fifth of households by income that purchased the greatest amount of alcohol, where the reduction was 15 g of alcohol per week (6 to 24). Changes in weekly expenditure were not systematically related to household income but increased with increasing household purchases.ConclusionsIn terms of immediate impact, the introduction of minimum unit pricing appears to have been successful in reducing the amount of alcohol purchased by households in Scotland. The action was targeted, in that reductions of purchased alcohol only occurred in the households that bought the most alcohol.

Background A classic methodology used in evaluating the impact of health policy interventions is interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis, applying a quasi-experimental design that uses both pre- and post-policy data without randomization. In this paper, we took a simulation-based approach to estimating intervention effects under different assumptions. Methods Each of the simulated mortality rates contained a linear time trend, seasonality, autoregressive, and moving-average terms. The simulations of the policy effects involved three scenarios: 1) immediate-level change only, 2) immediate-level and slope change, and 3) lagged-level and slope change. The estimated effects and biases of these effects were examined via three matched generalized additive mixed models, each of which used two different approaches: 1) effects based on estimated coefficients ( estimated approach), and 2) effects based on predictions from models ( predicted approach). The robustness of these two approaches was further investigated assuming misspecification of the models. Results When one simulated dataset was analyzed with the matched model, the two analytical approaches produced similar estimates. However, when the models were misspecified, the number of deaths prevented, estimated using the predicted vs. estimated approaches, were very different, with the predicted approach yielding estimates closer to the real effect. The discrepancy was larger when the policy was applied early in the time-series. Conclusion Even when the sample size appears to be large enough, one should still be cautious when conducting ITS analyses, since the power also depends on when in the series the intervention occurs. In addition, the intervention lagged effect needs to be fully considered at the study design stage (i.e., when developing the models).

IntroductionGermany is reforming its legal approach to cannabis, allowing the possession and cultivation of cannabis for recreational purposes. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of the policy reform on (1) The prevalence of cannabis use in the general population and (2) Driving under the influence of cannabis (DUIC) among regular users.Methods and analysisA quasi-experimental research design will be employed, with repeated cross-sectional surveys on self-reported DUIC and cannabis use conducted at three measurement points in Germany (intervention group) and Austria (control group) over a 2-year observation period (2023–2025). Data will be collected from approximately 50 000 individuals aged between 18 years and 64 years. To minimise reporting biases in the measurement of DUIC, we will use direct and indirect assessments via crosswise model and motor vehicle accident data from official statistics. In a difference-in-difference framework, regression analyses and interrupted time series analysis will be carried out for hypothesis testing.Ethics and disseminationParticipants will be informed about voluntary participation, data protection laws and the option to delete data on request. Ethical approval was obtained from the Local Psychological Ethics Committee of the Centre for Psychosocial Medicine in Hamburg, Germany (reference number: 0686). Findings will be disseminated through scientific networks and will be key for a comprehensive evaluation of the cannabis law reform. The findings will facilitate the design and implementation of road safety measures.

Objectives(1) A comprehensive mortality assessment of alcoholic cardiomyopathy (ACM) and (2) examination of under-reporting using vital statistics data.MethodsA modelling study estimated sex-specific mortality rates for each country, which were subsequently aggregated by region and globally. Input data on ACM mortality were obtained from death registries for n=91 countries. For n=99 countries, mortality estimates were predicted using aggregate alcohol data from WHO publications. Descriptive additional analyses illustrated the scope of under-reporting.ResultsIn 2015, there were an estimated 25 997 (95% CI 17 385 to 49 096) global deaths from ACM. This translates into 6.3% (95% CI 4.2% to 11.9%) of all global deaths from cardiomyopathy being caused by alcohol. There were large regional variations with regard to mortality burden. While the majority of ACM deaths were found in Russia (19 749 deaths, 76.0% of all ACM deaths), for about one-third of countries (n=57) less than one ACM death was found. Under-reporting was identified for nearly every second country with civil registration data. Overall, two out of three global ACM deaths might be misclassified.ConclusionsThe variation of ACM mortality burden is greater than for other alcohol-attributable diseases, and partly may be the result of stigma and lack of detection. Misclassification of ACM fatalities is a systematic phenomenon, which may be caused by low resources, lacking standards and stigma associated with alcohol-use disorders. Clinical management may be improved by including routine alcohol assessments. This could contribute to decrease misclassifications and to provide the best available treatment for affected patients.

Background High-risk alcohol use is an established modifiable risk factor for dementia. However, prior reviews have not addressed sex differences in alcohol-related dementia risk. In this systematic review, we take a sex-specific perspective towards the alcohol-dementia link, taking into account the age of dementia onset. Methods We searched electronic databases for original cohort or case–control studies investigating the association between alcohol use and dementia. Two restrictions were considered: First, studies had to report results stratified by sex. Second, given the fact that the age at dementia onset seems to affect the alcohol-dementia link, studies were required to distinguish between early-onset and late-onset dementia (cut-off: 65 years). Additionally, the contribution of alcohol to dementia incidence was quantified for a set of 33 European countries for the year 2019. Results We reviewed 3,157 reports, of which 7 publications were finally included and summarised narratively. A lower dementia risk when drinking alcohol infrequent or at moderate levels was found in men (three studies) and women (four studies). High-risk use and alcohol use disorders increased the risk of mild cognitive impairment and dementia, particularly early-onset dementia. Estimating the alcohol-attributable share of incident dementia cases revealed that 3.2% and 7.8% of incident dementia cases were estimated to be attributable to high-risk alcohol use (at least 24 g of pure alcohol per day) in 45-to-64-year-old women and men, respectively. Conclusions Research to date has paid little attention to the sex-specific link of alcohol and dementia. In the absence of sex-specific research, the established recommendations on high-risk alcohol use should be employed to communicate the alcohol-attributable dementia risk.

Screening, brief intervention and referral to treatment (SBIRT) is a programme to reduce alcohol consumption for drinkers with high alcohol consumption levels. Only 2.9% of patients in primary health care (PHC) are screened for their alcohol use in Germany, despite high levels of alcohol consumption and attributable harm. We developed an open-access simulation model to estimate the impact of higher SBIRT delivery rates in German PHC settings on population-level alcohol consumption. A hypothetical population of drinkers and non-drinkers was simulated by sex, age, and educational status for the year 2009 based on survey and sales data. Risky drinking persons receiving BI or RT were sampled from this population based on screening coverage and other parameters. Running the simulation model for a ten-year period, drinking levels and heavy episodic drinking (HED) status were changed based on effect sizes from meta-analyses. In the baseline scenario of 2.9% screening coverage, 2.4% of the adult German population received a subsequent intervention between 2009 and 2018. If every second PHC patient would have been screened for alcohol use, 21% of adult residents in Germany would have received BI or RT by the end of the ten-year simulation period. In this scenario, population-level alcohol consumption would be 11% lower than it was in 2018, without any impact on HED prevalence. Screening coverage rates below 10% were not found to have a measurable effect on drinking levels. Large-scale implementation of SBIRT in PHC settings can yield substantial reductions of alcohol consumption in Germany. As high screening coverage rates may only be achievable in the long run, other effective alcohol policies are required to achieve short-term reduction of alcohol use and attributable harm in Germany. There is large potential to apply this open-access simulation model to other settings and for other alcohol interventions.

Background SARS-CoV-2 reached Europe in early 2020 and disrupted the private and public life of its citizens, with potential implications for substance use. The objective of this study was to describe possible changes in substance use in the first months of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Europe. Methods Data were obtained from a cross-sectional online survey of 36,538 adult substance users from 21 European countries conducted between April 24 and July 22 of 2020. Self-perceived changes in substance use were measured by asking respondents whether their use had decreased (slightly or substantially), increased (slightly or substantially), or not changed during the past month. The survey covered alcohol (frequency, quantity, and heavy episodic drinking occasions), tobacco, cannabis, and other illicit drug use. Sample weighted data were descriptively analysed and compared across substances. Results Across all countries, use of all substances remained unchanged for around half of the respondents, while the remainder reported either a decrease or increase in their substance use. For alcohol use, overall, a larger proportion of respondents indicated a decrease than those reporting an increase. In contrast, more respondents reported increases in their tobacco and cannabis use during the previous month compared to those reporting decreased use. No distinct direction of change was reported for other substance use. Conclusions Our findings suggest changes in use of alcohol, tobacco and cannabis during the initial months of the pandemic in several European countries. This study offers initial insights into changes in substance use. Other data sources, such as sales statistics, should be used to corroborate these preliminary findings.

Background Taxation increases which reduce the affordability of alcohol are expected to reduce mortality inequalities. A recent taxation increase in Lithuania offers the unique possibility to test this hypothesis. Methods Census-linked mortality data between 2011 and 2019 were used to calculate monthly sex- and education-stratified age-standardized mortality rates for the population aged 40 to 70 years. As primary outcome, we analysed the difference in age-standardized all-cause mortality rates between the population of lowest versus highest educational achievement. The impact of the 2017 taxation increase was evaluated using interrupted time series analyses. To identify whether changes in alcohol use can explain the observed effects on all-cause mortality, the education-based mortality differences were then decomposed into n  = 16 cause-of-death groupings. Results Between 2012 and 2019, education-based all-cause mortality inequalities in Lithuania declined by 18% among men and by 14% among women. Following the alcohol taxation increase, we found a pronounced yet temporary reduction of mortality inequalities among Lithuanian men (− 13%). Subsequent decomposition analyses suggest that the reduction in mortality inequalities between lower and higher educated men was mainly driven by narrowing mortality differences in injuries and infectious diseases. Conclusions A marked increase in alcohol excise taxation was associated with a decrease in mortality inequalities among Lithuanian men. More pronounced reductions in deaths from injuries and infectious diseases among lower as compared to higher educated groups could be the result of differential changes in alcohol use in these populations.

Background: Based on civil registries, 26,000 people died from alcoholic cardiomyopathy (ACM) in 2015 globally. In the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study, garbage coded deaths were redistributed to ACM, resulting in substantially higher ACM mortality estimates (96,669 deaths, 95% confidence interval: 82,812–97,507). We aimed to explore the gap between civil registry and GBD mortality data, accounting for alcohol exposure as a cause of ACM. Methods: ACM mortality rates were obtained from civil registries and GBD for n = 77 countries. The relationship between registered and estimated mortality rates was assessed by sex and age groups, using Pearson correlation coefficients, in addition to comparing mortality rates with population alcohol exposure—the underlying cause of ACM. Results: Among people aged 65 years or older, civil registry mortality rates of ACM decreased markedly whereas GBD mortality rates increased. The widening gap of registered and estimated mortality rates in the elderly is reflected in a decrease of correlations. The age distribution of alcohol exposure is more consistent with the distribution of civil registry rather than GBD mortality rates. Conclusions: Among older adults, GBD mortality estimates of ACM seem implausible and are inconsistent with alcohol exposure. The garbage code redistribution algorithm should include alcohol exposure for ACM and other alcohol-attributable diseases.

Background Although many individuals with alcohol dependence (AD) are recognized in the German healthcare system, only a few utilize addiction-specific treatment services. Those who enter treatment are not well characterized regarding their prospective pathways through the highly fragmented German healthcare system. This paper aims to (1) identify typical care pathways of patients with AD and their adherence to treatment guidelines and (2) explore the characteristics of these patients using routine data from different healthcare sectors. Methods We linked routinely collected register data of individuals with a documented alcohol-related diagnosis in the federal state of Bremen, Germany, in 2016/2017 and their addiction-specific health care: two statutory health insurance funds (outpatient pharmacotherapy for relapse prevention and inpatient episodes due to AD with and without qualified withdrawal treatment (QWT)), the German Pension Insurance (rehabilitation treatment) and a group of communal hospitals (outpatient addiction care). Individual care pathways of five different daily states of utilized addiction-specific treatment following an index inpatient admission due to AD were analyzed using state sequence analysis and cluster analysis. The follow-up time was 307 days (10 months). Individuals of the clustered pathways were compared concerning current treatment recommendations (1: QWT followed by postacute treatment; 2: time between QWT and rehabilitation). Patients’ characteristics not considered during the cluster analysis (sex, age, nationality, comorbidity, and outpatient addiction care) were then compared using a multinomial logistic regression. Results The analysis of 518 individual sequences resulted in the identification of four pathway clusters differing in their utilization of acute and postacute treatment. Most did not utilize subsequent addiction-specific treatment after their index inpatient episode ( n  = 276) or had several inpatient episodes or QWT without postacute treatment ( n  = 205). Two small clusters contained pathways either starting rehabilitation ( n  = 26) or pharmacotherapy after the index episode ( n  = 11). Overall, only 9.3% utilized postacute treatment as recommended. Conclusions A concern besides the generally low utilization of addiction-specific treatment is the implementation of postacute treatments for individuals after QWT.