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Background Non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) are a frequent cause of invasive infections in sub-Saharan Africa. They are frequently multidrug resistant (co-resistant to ampicillin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and chloramphenicol), and resistance to third-generation cephalosporin and fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility have been reported. Third-generation cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones are often used to treat invasive NTS infections, but azithromycin might be an alternative. However, data on antibiotic treatment efficacy in invasive NTS infections are lacking. In this study, we aimed to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of antimicrobial resistance in invasive NTS infections in sub-Saharan Africa and to describe the available evidence and recommendations on antimicrobial treatment. Methods We conducted a systematic review of all available literature on antimicrobial resistance and treatment in invasive NTS infections. We performed a random effects meta-analysis to assess the temporal distribution of multidrug resistance, third-generation cephalosporin resistance, and fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility. We mapped these data to assess the spatial distribution. We provided a narrative synthesis of the available evidence and recommendations on antimicrobial treatment. Results Since 2001, multidrug resistance was observed in 75% of NTS isolates from all sub-Saharan African regions (95% confidence interval, 70–80% and 65–84%). Third-generation cephalosporin resistance emerged in all sub-Saharan African regions and was present in 5% (95% confidence interval, 1–10%) after 2010. Fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility emerged in all sub-Saharan African regions but did not increase over time. Azithromycin resistance was reported in DR Congo. There were no reports on carbapenem resistance. We did not find high-quality evidence on the efficacy of antimicrobial treatment. There were no supranational guidelines. The “Access group” antibiotics ampicillin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and chloramphenicol and “Watch group” antibiotics ceftriaxone, cefotaxime, and ciprofloxacin were recommended as the first-choice antibiotics in national guidelines or reviews. These also recommended (a switch to) oral fluoroquinolones or azithromycin. Conclusions In addition to the widespread multidrug resistance in invasive NTS infections in sub-Saharan Africa, resistance to third-generation cephalosporins and fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility was present in all regions. There was a lack of data on the efficacy of antimicrobial treatment in these infections, and supranational evidence-based guidelines were absent.

We examine the dynamic impact of household borrowing on the trade balance using data from 32 developing countries and 36 developed countries over the 1980-2020 period. Our findings suggest that the impact of household borrowing on the trade balance is negative, both in the short and long run, but the effects are more pronounced in developing countries. Moreover, we find that for developing countries the negative effect of household borrowing on the trade balance is achieved via boosting imports. In developed countries, household borrowing stimulates both imports and exports, where the effect on imports is larger.

If output gaps in a currency union are not sufficiently coherent, the common monetary policy will not be optimal for all countries or regions in the union. It is common practice to measure coherence of output gaps by a correlation coefficient. We propose new measures of output gap coherence, which take differences in the signs and/or amplitudes of the output gaps more adequately into account than the correlation coefficient. We apply these measures to the euro area, using the US as a benchmark. We also examine how sensitive our findings are to different ways of calculating the output gaps.

Economists typically use seasonally adjusted data in which the assumption is imposed that seasonality is uncorrelated with trend and cycle. The importance of this assumption has been highlighted by the Great Recession. The paper examines an unobserved components model that permits nonzero correlations between seasonal and nonseasonal shocks. Identification conditions for estimation of the parameters are discussed from the perspectives of both analytical and simulation results. Applications to UK household consumption expenditures and US employment reject the zero correlation restrictions and also show that the correlation assumptions imposed have important implications about the evolution of the trend and cycle in the post-Great Recession period.

Background Fixed-dose combinations (FDC) are medicine formulations that combine two or more ingredients in fixed ratios in a single dose form. Although advantageous in tuberculosis and malaria (efficacy, adherence, protection against resistance), only a few antibiotic FDC (FDC-AB) have been developed along full microbiological, pharmacological and clinical validation and safety studies. The World Health Organization (WHO) database of Access, Watch and Reserve (AWaRe) antibiotics contains, since 2021, a list of “Not Recommended” FDC-AB (n = 103) which are rejected for use in clinical practice. Body The share of non-recommended FDC-AB in global antimicrobial use (2000–2015) was < 3% but substantially higher in middle income countries. The share increases over time, but recent data particular concerning sub-Saharan Africa are rare. Along three non-recommended FDC-AB listed in the Tanzanian National Essential Medicine List (ampicillin-cloxacillin, flucloxacillin-amoxicillin and ceftriaxone-sulbactam) we discuss the concerns and reasons behind use of these products. Non-recommended FDC-AB have poor rationale (ratios of both ingredients), lack evidence of efficacy (pharmacological, microbiological and clinical), have difficulties in dosing (underdosing of the single ingredients, absence of pediatric dosing) and risks of safety (additive toxicity). They are expected to fuel antimicrobial resistance (unnecessary broad spectrum coverage) and are incompatible with antimicrobial stewardship. The specific context of low- and middle-income countries contributes to their increased use: at the side of prescriber and supplier are the lack of diagnostics, poor training in antibiotic prescribing, patients’ preferences, role-model of senior prescribers and pharmaceutical promotion. International market mechanisms include economic motivation for development, branding and promotion, poor access to the single antibiotic forms and weak national regulatory capacity. Conclusion and implications There is an urgent need for monitoring consumption of non-recommended FDC-AB in low- and middle-income countries, particular in Sub-Saharan Africa. A multinational and multisectoral antimicrobial stewardship strategy is needed in order to abolish the use of non-recommended FDC-AB.

Cattel’s (Multivar Behav Res 1:245–276, 1966) heuristic determines the number of factors as the elbow point between ‘steep’ and ‘not steep’ in the scree plot. In contrast, an elbow is by definition absent in points on a hyberbole with corresponding equisized surfaces. We formalize this heuristic and propose a criterion to determine the number of factors by comparing surfaces under the scree plot. Monte Carlo simulations shows that the finite-sample properties of our proposed criterion outperform benchmarks in the dynamic factor model literature.

We investigate the propagation of financial turbulence via trade, capital flows, and distance channels in the pre-crisis and Global Financial Crisis periods by modeling spillover and interdependence effects, using spatial econometric techniques. Financial turbulence is proxied by the ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans in a country. Spillover effects are defined as significant changes in the linkages between countries due to a shock, and interdependence effects as strong linkages among pairs of countries independent of shocks. Using annual data of 40 countries from 2003 to 2010, we find that interdependence and spillover effects should be jointly analyzed. Furthermore, our results suggest that the capital flows channel is more important than the other two channels in capturing propagation of financial turbulence. By deriving what is known in the spatial econometrics literature as direct and indirect effect estimates, we show that the marginal effects of macroeconomic variables (like GDP growth, inflation, and credit growth) on financial turbulence take different forms during a crisis than in tranquil periods.

Background Antibiotic resistance is a global concern threatening achievements in health care since the discovery of antibiotics. In Kenya, this topic remains understudied in a context of rising demand for livestock products, intensification and the concomitant increase in antibiotic use. Our study investigates drivers and practices of antibiotic use in poultry farming. The study was conducted in Kiambu County, Kenya. Methods A qualitative research methodology was employed: fourteen key informant interviews, twenty in-depth interviews, and four focus group discussions were undertaken. The interviews were semi-structured. Themes and subthemes from the interviews were generated through inductive analysis. Findings Of the farmers interviewed, sixty eight percent were female, thirty three percent of the sampled farmers could not read, and the majority (eight five percent) of farmers had reared poultry for at least ten years. Research findings showed that farmers extensively used antibiotics. Antibiotic use was influenced by factors such as high disease burden, access to medicines and economic pressure. Common practices included prophylactic use, use of antibiotics to enhance production, self-prescription use, use of combination antibiotics (A combination antibiotic is one in which two or more antibiotics are added together for additional therapeutic effect.), and antibiotics classified as critically important in human medicine. Key information sources for the farmers were agro- veterinary dispensers, sellers of day-old chicks, and peer-learning. External factors driving the inappropriate use of antibiotics included access to the antibiotics, influence by marketers such as sellers of day-old chicks, and branding. Use of antibiotics was also driven by economic factors among the farmers, sellers of day-old chicks and agro-veterinary dispensers. Conclusions Our findings indicate widespread use of antibiotics among poultry farmers in our study site. The use of antibiotics is influenced by an interplay of issues at the farmers’ level as well as broader social, economic and structural level factors. A multifaceted One Health approach focusing on regulatory frameworks, knowledge transfer, and research is required to promote stewardship and judicious use of antibiotics.

This paper investigates the performance of early warning systems for currency crises in real-time, using forecasts of indicators that are available at the moment predictions are to be made. We investigate two types of commonly used early warning systems for currency crises: the signal approach and the logit model. We apply each EWS to a panel of fifteen emerging economies, distinguishing an estimation period 1991Q1–2010Q4 and a prediction period 2011Q1–2017Q4. We find that using indicator forecasts in the predictions worsens the ability of early warning systems to signal crises compared to the most recently available information.

We empirically determine whether a Ricardian or a non-Ricardian regime is more plausible for the euro area, following the research strategy of Canzoneri et al. (Am Econ Rev 91:1221–1238, 2001). A Vector AutoRegressive model for the primary government balance and the government debt is estimated for the period 1980q2–2013q4. Our model uses dummy interaction terms to account for the breaks due to the introduction of the Euro Convergence Criteria (ECC) and the start of the global financial crisis, respectively. No evidence is found in favour of either regime for the pre-ECC period. In the post-ECC period, a Ricardian regime is more plausible. Some evidence points in the direction of a non-Ricardian regime for the period after the start of the financial crisis.