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Meat consumption is rising annually as human populations grow and affluence increases. Godfray et al. review this trend, which has major negative consequences for land and water use and environmental change. Although meat is a concentrated source of nutrients for low-income families, it also enhances the risks of chronic ill health, such as from colorectal cancer and cardiovascular disease. Changing meat consumption habits is a challenge that requires identifying the complex social factors associated with meat eating and developing policies for effective interventions. Science , this issue p. eaam5324 Both the global average per capita consumption of meat and the total amount of meat consumed are rising, driven by increasing average individual incomes and by population growth. The consumption of different types of meat and meat products has substantial effects on people’s health, and livestock production can have major negative effects on the environment. Here, we explore the evidence base for these assertions and the options policy-makers have should they wish to intervene to affect population meat consumption. We highlight where more research is required and the great importance of integrating insights from the natural and social sciences.

Background Reducing meat consumption can help prevent non-communicable diseases and protect the environment. Interventions targeting conscious determinants of human behaviour are generally acceptable approaches to promote dietary change, but little is known about their effectiveness to reduce the demand for meat. Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of interventions targeting conscious determinants of human behaviour to reduce the demand for meat. Methods We searched six electronic databases on the 31st of August 2017 with a predefined algorithm, screened publicly accessible resources, contacted authors, and conducted forward and backward reference searches. Eligible studies employed experimental designs to evaluate interventions targeting conscious determinants of human behaviour to reduce the consumption, purchase, or selection of meat in comparison to a control condition, a baseline period, or relative to other eligible interventions. We synthesised results narratively and conducted an exploratory crisp-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to identify combinations of intervention characteristics associated with significant reductions in the demand for meat. Results We included 24 papers reporting on 59 interventions and 25,477 observations. Self-monitoring interventions and individual lifestyle counselling led to, or were associated with reduced meat consumption. Providing information about the health or environmental consequences of eating meat was associated with reduced intentions to consume and select meat in virtual environments, but there was no evidence to suggest this approach influenced actual behaviour. Education about the animal welfare consequences of eating meat was associated with reduced intentions to consume meat, while interventions implicitly highlighting animal suffering were not. Education on multiple consequences of eating meat led to mixed results. Tailored education was not found to reduce actual or intended meat consumption, though few studies assessed this approach. Conclusion Some interventions targeting conscious determinants of human behaviour have the potential to reduce the demand for meat. In particular, self-monitoring interventions and individual lifestyle counselling can help to reduce meat consumption. There was evidence of effectiveness of some educational messages in reducing intended consumption and selection of meat in virtual environments. Protocol registration CRD42017076720 .

Keywords: Obesity, Food, Environment, Policy

Background Contested evidence suggests that obesity confers no risk to health in people who have a healthy lifestyle, particularly if there are no metabolic complications of obesity. The aim was to examine the association between adherence to lifestyle recommendations and the absence of metabolic complications on the incident or fatal cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality across different categories of body mass index (BMI). Methods This contemporary prospective cohort study included 339,902 adults without cardiovascular disease at baseline, recruited between 2006 and 2010 from the UK Biobank and followed until 2018–2020. The main exposures were four healthy lifestyle behaviours: never smoker, alcohol intake ≤ 112g/ week, 150 min moderate physical activity or 75 min vigorous activity/week, ≥ 5 servings of fruit or vegetables/day, and we assessed these overall and across the BMI groups. Metabolic complications of excess adiposity were hypertension, diabetes and hyperlipidaemia, and we examined whether obesity was associated with increased risk in the absence of these complications. The outcomes were all-cause mortality, death from, and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD). Results Individuals who met four lifestyle recommendations but had excess weight had higher all-cause mortality; for BMI 30–34.9 kg/m 2 , the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.42 (95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.68), and for BMI ≥ 35 kg/m 2 , HR was 2.17 (95% CI 1.71 to 2.76). The risk was lower, but still increased for people with no metabolic complications; for all-cause mortality, BMI 30–34.9 kg/m 2 had an HR of 1.09 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.21), and BMI ≥ 35 kg/m 2 had an HR of 1.44 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.74) for all-cause mortality. Similar patterns were found for incident and fatal CVD. Conclusions Meeting healthy lifestyle recommendations, or the absence of metabolic complications of obesity offsets some, but not all, of the risk of subsequent CVD, and premature mortality in people with overweight or obesity. Offering support to achieve and maintain a healthy weight and to adopt healthy behaviours are likely to be important components in effective preventative healthcare.

Background Evidence suggests we must change both the type of food we consume and the way we produce it, at a transformational scale, to protect population and planetary health and avoid exacerbating existing diet-related health inequalities. Discussion We summarise key findings from behaviour change theory and literature, highlighting the need for means, motive and opportunity to enact behaviour change. We evaluate and contrast the implications for interventions aimed at individuals vs. businesses, arguing that policy must shift focus from individual responsibility to systemic change. Conclusion Past public health interventions have tended to focus on individuals’ motivation, with limited impact, while interventions that target the motivation of businesses, if enacted, would likely garner substantially greater impact. Governments implementing mandatory reporting could provide the foundation to realign the incentives that shape business practices. This would subsequently enable mandatory targets to be introduced on foods sold, providing in turn the necessary conditions — the means and opportunity — for individuals to enact dietary change.

Background Traditionally, studies investigating diet and health associations have focused on single nutrients. However, key nutrients co-exist in many common foods, and studies focusing solely on individual nutrients may obscure their combined effects on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality. We aimed to identify food-based dietary patterns which operate through excess energy intake and explain high variability in energy density, free sugars, saturated fat, and fiber intakes and to investigate their association with total and fatal CVD and all-cause mortality. Methods Detailed dietary data was collected using a 24-h online dietary assessment on two or more occasions ( n  = 116,806). We used reduced rank regression to derive dietary patterns explaining the maximum variance. Multivariable Cox-proportional hazards models were used to investigate prospective associations with all-cause mortality and fatal and non-fatal CVD. Results Over an average of 4.9 years of follow-up, 4245 cases of total CVD, 838 cases of fatal CVD, and 3629 cases of all-cause mortality occurred. Two dietary patterns were retained that jointly explained 63% of variation in energy density, free sugars, saturated fat, and fiber intakes in total. The main dietary pattern was characterized by high intakes of chocolate and confectionery, butter and low-fiber bread, and low intakes of fresh fruit and vegetables. There was a positive linear association between the dietary pattern and total CVD [hazard ratio (HR) per z- score 1.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04–1.09; HR total CVD 1.40, 95% CI 1.31–1.50, and HR all-cause mortality 1.37, 95% CI 1.27–1.47 in highest quintile]. A second dietary pattern was characterized by a higher intakes of sugar-sweetened beverages, fruit juice, and table sugar/preserves. There was a non-linear association with total CVD risk and all-cause mortality, with increased risk in the highest quintile [HR total CVD 1.14, 95% CI 1.07–1.22; HR all-cause mortality 1.11, 95% CI 1.03–1.19]. Conclusions We identified dietary patterns which are associated with increased risk of CVD and all-cause mortality. These results help identify specific foods and beverages which are major contributors to unhealthy dietary patterns and provide evidence to underpin food-based dietary advice to reduce health risks.

Reducing meat consumption could bring health and environmental benefits, but there is little research to date on effective interventions to achieve this. A non-randomised controlled intervention study was used to evaluate whether prominent positioning of meat-free products in the meat aisle was associated with a change in weekly mean sales of meat and meat-free products. Weekly sales data were obtained from 108 stores: 20 intervention stores that moved a selection of 26 meat-free products into a newly created meat-free bay within the meat aisle and 88 matched control stores. The primary outcome analysis used a hierarchical negative binomial model to compare changes in weekly sales (units) of meat products sold in intervention versus control stores during the main intervention period (Phase I: February 2019 to April 2019). Interrupted time series analysis was also used to evaluate the effects of the Phase I intervention. Moreover, 8 of the 20 stores enhanced the intervention from August 2019 onwards (Phase II intervention) by adding a second bay of meat-free products into the meat aisle, which was evaluated following the same analytical methods. Prominent positioning of meat-free products into the meat aisle in a supermarket was not effective in reducing sales of meat products, but successfully increased sales of meat-free alternatives in the longer term.

Obesity is a common cause of non-communicable disease. Guidelines recommend that physicians screen and offer brief advice to motivate weight loss through referral to behavioural weight loss programmes. However, physicians rarely intervene and no trials have been done on the subject. We did this trial to establish whether physician brief intervention is acceptable and effective for reducing bodyweight in patients with obesity. In this parallel, two-arm, randomised trial, patients who consulted 137 primary care physicians in England were screened for obesity. Individuals could be enrolled if they were aged at least 18 years, had a body-mass index of at least 30 kg/m2 (or at least 25 kg/m2 if of Asian ethnicity), and had a raised body fat percentage. At the end of the consultation, the physician randomly assigned participants (1:1) to one of two 30 s interventions. Randomisation was done via preprepared randomisation cards labelled with a code representing the allocation, which were placed in opaque sealed envelopes and given to physicians to open at the time of treatment assignment. In the active intervention, the physician offered referral to a weight management group (12 sessions of 1 h each, once per week) and, if the referral was accepted, the physician ensured the patient made an appointment and offered follow-up. In the control intervention, the physician advised the patient that their health would benefit from weight loss. The primary outcome was weight change at 12 months in the intention-to-treat population, which was assessed blinded to treatment allocation. We also assessed asked patients' about their feelings on discussing their weight when they have visited their general practitioner for other reasons. Given the nature of the intervention, we did not anticipate any adverse events in the usual sense, so safety outcomes were not assessed. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, number ISRCTN26563137. Between June 4, 2013, and Dec 23, 2014, we screened 8403 patients, of whom 2728 (32%) were obese. Of these obese patients, 2256 (83%) agreed to participate and 1882 were eligible, enrolled, and included in the intention-to-treat analysis, with 940 individuals in the support group and 942 individuals in the advice group. 722 (77%) individuals assigned to the support intervention agreed to attend the weight management group and 379 (40%) of these individuals attended, compared with 82 (9%) participants who were allocated the advice intervention. In the entire study population, mean weight change at 12 months was 2·43 kg with the support intervention and 1·04 kg with the advice intervention, giving an adjusted difference of 1·43 kg (95% CI 0·89–1·97). The reactions of the patients to the general practitioners' brief interventions did not differ significantly between the study groups in terms of appropriateness (adjusted odds ratio 0·89, 95% CI 0·75–1·07, p=0·21) or helpfulness (1·05, 0·89–1·26, p=0·54); overall, four (<1%) patients thought their intervention was inappropriate and unhelpful and 1530 (81%) patients thought it was appropriate and helpful. A behaviourally-informed, very brief, physician-delivered opportunistic intervention is acceptable to patients and an effective way to reduce population mean weight. The UK National Prevention Research Initiative.

Background Increasing the availability of lower energy-density foods is a promising intervention to encourage healthier food purchasing but few studies have examined the effect of increasing availability of meat-free meals to promote more sustainable purchasing. We report three studies, all examining the impact of altering the availability of meat-free meals on meal selection. Methods Study 1 (a natural experiment in one university cafeteria) examined the impact of altering the ratio of meat-free meals (one meat-free and two meat, to two meat-free and one meat) on weekly sales of meals containing meat. Study 2 (a natural experiment in 18 worksite cafeterias) examined the impact on meat-free meal sales of a menu change designed to increase the availability of meat-free meals. Study 3 (an online study of 2205 UK-representative adults) compared meal selections when participants were randomised to ranges comprised of (a) one meat-free, three meat options; (b) two meat-free, two meat; or (c) three meat-free, one meat. Results Study 1 suggested a significant decrease in the proportion of sales of meat options when the availability of meat-free options increased (− 19.9 percentage points; 95%CIs:-25.2,-14.6), with no evidence of changes to meat-based meal sales in other university cafeterias during the same period. Findings from Study 2 were mixed: multilevel regressions found no evidence of an increase in meat-free meals following the menu change (2.3 percentage points; 95%CIs: − 1.3,5.9), while interrupted time-series analyses suggested sales did increase (2.3; 95%CIs: 0.4,4.2), but implementation of the planned change was limited. In Study 3 reducing meat-free options from 50 to 25% reduced participants’ selection of meat-free options (odds ratio 0.35; 95%CIs: 0.26,0.46), while increasing meat-free options from 50 to 75% increased meat-free selections (odds ratio 2.43; 95%CIs: 1.94,3.04). There was no evidence effects were moderated by gender, socioeconomic status or usual meat consumption. Conclusion Increasing the availability of meat-free options is effective at reducing meat selection and purchasing for different ratios of meat to meat-free options. The magnitude of the effect is uncertain, but with no evidence of differences in response by demographic groups when directly tested. Trial registration Study 3: Open Science Framework; https://osf.io/ze9c6 ; 6/8/2020.

The proportion of energy from free sugars and saturated fat currently exceeds the UK-recommended intake across all age groups. Recognising the limits of reformulation programmes, the government in England has announced their intention to introduce legislation to restrict the promotion of foods high in free sugars, salt, and saturated fats in prominent store locations. Here, we evaluated a grocery store intervention to remove seasonal confectionery from prominent locations within a major UK supermarket. A nonrandomised controlled intervention study with interrupted time series (ITS) analysis was used. Data were analysed from 34 intervention stores located in 2 London boroughs and 151 matched control stores located elsewhere in the UK owned by the same retailer. Stores were matched based on store size and overall sales during the previous year. Between 15 February 2019 and 3 April 2019 (before Easter), stores removed free-standing promotional display units of seasonal confectionery from prominent areas, although these products were available for purchase elsewhere in the store. Store-level weekly sales (units, weight (g), and value (£)) of seasonal chocolate confectionery products were used in primary analyses, with data from 1 January 2018 to 24 November 2019. Secondary outcomes included total energy, fat, saturated fat, and sugars from all in-store purchases. Multivariable hierarchical models were used to investigate pre/post differences in weekly sales of confectionery in intervention versus control stores. ITS analyses were used to evaluate differences in level and trends after intervention implementation. Over a preintervention baseline period (15 February 2018 to 3 April 2018), there were no significant differences in sales (units, weight, and value) of all chocolate confectionery between intervention versus control stores. After intervention implementation, there was an attenuation in the seasonal increase of confectionery sales (units) in intervention stores compared to control (+5% versus +18%; P < 0.001), with similar effects on weight (g) (+12% versus +31%; P < 0.001) and value (£) (-3% versus +10%; P < 0.001). ITS analyses generally showed statistically significant differences in the level at the point of intervention (P ranges 0.010 to 0.067) but also in the trend afterwards (P ranges 0.024 to 0.053), indicating that the initial difference between intervention and control stores reduced over time. There was a significant difference in level change in total energy sold, adjusted for the total weight of food and drink (kcal/g, P = 0.002), and total fat (fat/g) (P = 0.023), but no significant changes in saturated fat or sugars from total sales in ITS models. There was no evidence that the main results varied across store deprivation index. The limitations of this study include the lack of randomisation, residual confounding from unmeasured variables, absolute differences in trends and sales between intervention versus control stores, and no independent measures of intervention fidelity. Removal of chocolate confectionery from prominent locations was associated with reduced purchases of these products, of sufficient magnitude to observe a reduction in the energy content of total food purchases. These results from a \"real-world\" intervention provide promising evidence that the proposed legislation in England to restrict promotions of less healthy items in prominent locations may help reduce overconsumption. https://osf.io/br96f/.