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Characterization of longitudinal trajectories of biomarkers implicated in sporadic Alzheimer's disease (AD) in decades before clinical diagnosis is important for disease prevention and monitoring. We used a multivariate Bayesian model to temporally align 1369 Alzheimer's disease Neuroimaging Initiative participants based on the similarity of their longitudinal biomarker measures and estimated a quantitative template of the temporal evolution of cerebrospinal fluid Aβ1−42, p-tau181p, and t-tau and hippocampal volume, brain glucose metabolism, and cognitive measurements. We computed biomarker trajectories as a function of time to AD dementia and predicted AD dementia onset age in a disjoint sample. Quantitative template showed early changes in verbal memory, cerebrospinal fluid Aβ1–42 and p-tau181p, and hippocampal volume. Mean error in predicted AD dementia onset age was <1.5 years. Our method provides a quantitative approach for characterizing the natural history of AD starting at preclinical stages despite the lack of individual-level longitudinal data spanning the entire disease timeline.

Yeast two-hybrid screens are an important method for mapping pairwise physical interactions between proteins. The fraction of interactions detected in independent screens can be very small, and an outstanding challenge is to determine the reason for the low overlap. Low overlap can arise from either a high false-discovery rate (interaction sets have low overlap because each set is contaminated by a large number of stochastic false-positive interactions) or a high false-negative rate (interaction sets have low overlap because each misses many true interactions). We extend capture-recapture theory to provide the first unified model for false-positive and false-negative rates for two-hybrid screens. Analysis of yeast, worm, and fly data indicates that 25% to 45% of the reported interactions are likely false positives. Membrane proteins have higher false-discovery rates on average, and signal transduction proteins have lower rates. The overall false-negative rate ranges from 75% for worm to 90% for fly, which arises from a roughly 50% false-negative rate due to statistical undersampling and a 55% to 85% false-negative rate due to proteins that appear to be systematically lost from the assays. Finally, statistical model selection conclusively rejects the Erdös-Rényi network model in favor of the power law model for yeast and the truncated power law for worm and fly degree distributions. Much as genome sequencing coverage estimates were essential for planning the human genome sequencing project, the coverage estimates developed here will be valuable for guiding future proteomic screens. All software and datasets are available in and , -, and -, and are also available from our Web site, http://www.baderzone.org.

While neurodegenerative diseases are characterized by steady degeneration over relatively long timelines, it is widely believed that the early stages are the most promising for therapeutic intervention, before irreversible neuronal loss occurs. Developing a therapeutic response requires a precise measure of disease progression. However, since the early stages are for the most part asymptomatic, obtaining accurate measures of disease progression is difficult. Longitudinal databases of hundreds of subjects observed during several years with tens of validated biomarkers are becoming available, allowing the use of computational methods. We propose a widely applicable statistical methodology for creating a disease progression score (DPS), using multiple biomarkers, for subjects with a neurodegenerative disease. The proposed methodology was evaluated for Alzheimer's disease (AD) using the publicly available AD Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database, yielding an Alzheimer's DPS or ADPS score for each subject and each time-point in the database. In addition, a common description of biomarker changes was produced allowing for an ordering of the biomarkers. The Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test delayed recall was found to be the earliest biomarker to become abnormal. The group of biomarkers comprising the volume of the hippocampus and the protein concentration amyloid beta and Tau were next in the timeline, and these were followed by three cognitive biomarkers. The proposed methodology thus has potential to stage individuals according to their state of disease progression relative to a population and to deduce common behaviors of biomarkers in the disease itself. [Display omitted] ► A computational neurodegenerative disease progression score (DPS) is proposed ► The DPS combines measurements from multiple biomarkers ► Validation with the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort ► An Alzheimer's DPS (ADPS) is computed for each subject and time-point in ADNI ► Evidence for a common Alzheimer's disease progression within ADNI subjects

It is important to characterize the temporal trajectories of disease-related biomarkers in order to monitor progression and identify potential points of intervention. These are especially important for neurodegenerative diseases, as therapeutic intervention is most likely to be effective in the preclinical disease stages prior to significant neuronal damage. Neuroimaging allows for the measurement of structural, functional, and metabolic integrity of the brain at the level of voxels, whose volumes are on the order of mm3. These voxelwise measurements provide a rich collection of disease indicators. Longitudinal neuroimaging studies enable the analysis of changes in these voxelwise measures. However, commonly used longitudinal analysis approaches, such as linear mixed effects models, do not account for the fact that individuals enter a study at various disease stages and progress at different rates, and generally consider each voxelwise measure independently. We propose a multivariate nonlinear mixed effects model for estimating the trajectories of voxelwise neuroimaging biomarkers from longitudinal data that accounts for such differences across individuals. The method involves the prediction of a progression score for each visit based on a collective analysis of voxelwise biomarker data within an expectation–maximization framework that efficiently handles large amounts of measurements and variable number of visits per individual, and accounts for spatial correlations among voxels. This score allows individuals with similar progressions to be aligned and analyzed together, which enables the construction of a trajectory of brain changes as a function of an underlying progression or disease stage. We apply our method to studying cortical β-amyloid deposition, a hallmark of preclinical Alzheimer's disease, as measured using positron emission tomography. Results on 104 individuals with a total of 300 visits suggest that precuneus is the earliest cortical region to accumulate amyloid, closely followed by the cingulate and frontal cortices, then by the lateral parietal cortex. The extracted progression scores reveal a pattern similar to mean cortical distribution volume ratio (DVR), an index of global brain amyloid levels. The proposed method can be applied to other types of longitudinal imaging data, including metabolism, blood flow, tau, and structural imaging-derived measures, to extract individualized summary scores indicating disease progression and to provide voxelwise trajectories that can be compared between brain regions. •We present a method to estimate trajectories of voxelwise imaging biomarkers.•Method accounts for differences in rate of progression and onset across subjects.•Scores extracted from imaging data at each longitudinal visit represent disease stage.•Application on amyloid imaging reveals precuneus as the earliest cortical accumulator.

The cerebellum plays an important role in both motor control and cognitive function. Cerebellar function is topographically organized and diseases that affect specific parts of the cerebellum are associated with specific patterns of symptoms. Accordingly, delineation and quantification of cerebellar sub-regions from magnetic resonance images are important in the study of cerebellar atrophy and associated functional losses. This paper describes an automated cerebellar lobule segmentation method based on a graph cut segmentation framework. Results from multi-atlas labeling and tissue classification contribute to the region terms in the graph cut energy function and boundary classification contributes to the boundary term in the energy function. A cerebellar parcellation is achieved by minimizing the energy function using the α-expansion technique. The proposed method was evaluated using a leave-one-out cross-validation on 15 subjects including both healthy controls and patients with cerebellar diseases. Based on reported Dice coefficients, the proposed method outperforms two state-of-the-art methods. The proposed method was then applied to 77 subjects to study the region-specific cerebellar structural differences in three spinocerebellar ataxia (SCA) genetic subtypes. Quantitative analysis of the lobule volumes shows distinct patterns of volume changes associated with different SCA subtypes consistent with known patterns of atrophy in these genetic subtypes. •Proposed an automated cerebellar lobule segmentation method•Validated on expert delineated cohort containing both healthy and patients•Performed better than two state-of-the-art segmentation methods•Applied to ataxia dataset and showed group differences consistent with literature

Introduction: Characterization of longitudinal trajectories of biomarkers implicated in sporadic Alzheimer's disease~(AD) in decades prior to clinical diagnosis is important for disease prevention and monitoring. Methods: We used a multivariate Bayesian model to temporally align 1369 AD Neuroimaging Initiative participants based on the similarity of their longitudinal biomarker measures and estimated a quantitative template of the temporal evolution cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) A 1-42, p-tau181p, and t-tau, hippocampal volume, brain glucose metabolism, and cognitive measurements. We computed biomarker trajectories as a function of time to AD dementia, and predicted AD dementia onset age in a disjoint sample. Results: Quantitative template showed earliest changes in verbal memory, followed by CSF A 1-42, hippocampal volume, and p-tau181p. Mean error in predicted AD dementia onset age was < 1.5 years. Discussion: Our method provides a quantitative approach for characterizing the natural history of AD starting at preclinical stages despite the lack of individual-level longitudinal data spanning the entire disease timeline.

Investigation of the temporal trajectories of currently used neuropsychological tests is critical to identifying earliest changing measures on the path to dementia due to Alzheimer's disease (AD). We used the Progression Score (PS) method to characterize the temporal trajectories of measures of verbal memory, executive function, attention, processing speed, language, and mental state using data spanning normal cognition, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and AD from 1661 participants with a total of 7839 visits (age at last visit 77.6 SD 9.2) in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging and 1542 participants with a total of 4467 visits (age at last visit 59.9 SD 7.3) in the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention. This method aligns individuals in time based on the similarity of their longitudinal measurements to reveal temporal trajectories. As a validation of our methodology, we explored the associations between the individualized cognitive progression scores (Cog PS) computed by our method and clinical diagnosis. Digit span tests were the first to show declines in both data sets, and were detected mainly among cognitively normal individuals. These were followed by tests of verbal memory, which were in turn followed by Trail Making Tests, Boston Naming Test, and Mini-Mental State Examination. Differences in Cog-PS across the clinical diagnosis groups were statistically significant, highlighting the potential use of Cog-PS as individualized indicators of disease progression. Identifying cognitive measures that are changing in preclinical AD can lead to the development of novel cognitive tests that are finely tuned to detecting earliest changes.

Learning nonparametric systems of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) dot x = f(t,x) from noisy data is an emerging machine learning topic. We use the well-developed theory of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS) to define candidates for f for which the solution of the ODE exists and is unique. Learning f consists of solving a constrained optimization problem in an RKHS. We propose a penalty method that iteratively uses the Representer theorem and Euler approximations to provide a numerical solution. We prove a generalization bound for the L2 distance between x and its estimator and provide experimental comparisons with the state-of-the-art.

It is important to characterize the temporal trajectories of disease-related biomarkers in order to monitor progression and identify potential points of intervention. This is especially important for neurodegenerative diseases, as therapeutic intervention is most likely to be effective in the preclinical disease stages prior to significant neuronal damage. Longitudinal neuroimaging allows for the measurement of structural, functional, and metabolic integrity of the brain over time at the level of voxels. However, commonly used longitudinal analysis approaches, such as linear mixed effects models, do not account for the fact that individuals enter a study at various disease stages and progress at different rates, and generally consider each voxelwise measure independently. We propose a multivariate nonlinear mixed effects model for estimating the trajectories of voxelwise neuroimaging biomarkers from longitudinal data that accounts for such differences across individuals. The method involves the prediction of a progression score for each visit based on a collective analysis of voxelwise biomarker data within an expectation-maximization framework that efficiently handles large amounts of measurements and variable number of visits per individual, and accounts for spatial correlations among voxels. This score allows individuals with similar progressions to be aligned and analyzed together, which enables the construction of a trajectory of brain changes as a function of an underlying progression or disease stage. Application of our method to studying images of beta-amyloid deposition, a hallmark of preclinical Alzheimer's disease, suggests that precuneus is the earliest cortical region to accumulate amyloid. The proposed method can be applied to other types of longitudinal imaging data, including metabolism, blood flow, tau, and structural imaging-derived measures.

The primary outcome of Randomized clinical Trials (RCTs) are typically dichotomous, continuous, multivariate continuous, or time-to-event. However, what if this outcome is unstructured, e.g., a list of variables of mixed types, longitudinal sequences, images, audio recordings, etc. When the outcome is unstructured it is unclear how to assess RCT success and how to compute sample size. We show that kernel methods offer natural extensions to traditional biostatistics methods. We demonstrate our approach with the measurements of computer usage in a cohort of aging participants, some of which will become cognitively impaired. Simulations as well as a real data experiment show the superiority of the proposed approach compared to the standard in this situation: generalized mixed effect models.