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Sediment Accumulation Rate (SAR; measured as mm yr−1) and Mass Accumulation Rate (MAR; measured as g cm−2 yr−1) data were collected from published lake core records that spanned the past ~  150 years, from approximately 500 sites worldwide. For each lake, key watershed characteristics including watershed size, slope, land use and climate were extracted, with the goal of quantifying the relative importance of these variables as drivers of SAR and MAR. General additive models provided evidence of accelerated global lake sediment infilling rates after AD 1950. Whereas the onset of sedimentation acceleration varied across ecoregions, global lake MAR values were found to have increased ~  threefold on average, since baseline conditions pre-1900 (i.e. μbaseline = 0.040 ± 0.044 g cm−2 yr−1 and μmodern = 0.13 ± 0.22 g cm−2 yr−1). The significant drivers, identified through Linear Mixed Effect modeling of MAR time series, were watershed population density (log-transformed) and watershed cropland density (log-transformed). Our results highlight important spatial heterogeneity in SAR and MAR among lakes, precluding the use of simple modeling approaches. SAR and MAR were found to be moderately correlated to one another, despite the potential for post-depositional disparities between segments of the sediment cores. We identified organic matter content (loss-on-ignition, LOI) as a significant co-variate that could be used to correct inflated very recent SAR rates. Our empirical analyses suggest that, despite a wide range of natural variability among lakes, both SAR and MAR increased globally and the increases appear to be mainly the result of enhanced watershed activities associated with agriculture and urbanization.

Nonlinear responses to changing external pressures are increasingly studied in real‐world ecosystems. However, as many of the changes observed by ecologists extend beyond the monitoring record, the occurrence of critical transitions, where the system is pushed from one equilibrium state to another, remains difficult to detect. Paleo‐ecological records thus represent a unique opportunity to expand our temporal perspective to consider regime shifts and critical transitions, and whether such events are the exception rather than the rule. Yet, sediment core records can be affected by their own biases, such as sediment mixing or compression, with unknown consequences for the statistics commonly used to assess regime shifts, resilience, or critical transitions. To address this shortcoming, we developed a protocol to simulate paleolimnological records undergoing regime shifts or critical transitions to alternate states and tested, using both simulated and real core records, how mixing and compression affected our ability to detect past abrupt shifts. The smoothing that is built into paleolimnological data sets apparently interfered with the signal of rolling window indicators, especially autocorrelation. We thus turned to time‐varying autoregressions (online dynamic linear models, DLMs; and time‐varying autoregressive state‐space models, TVARSS) to evaluate the possibility of detecting regime shifts and critical transitions in simulated and real core records. For the real cores, we examined both varved (annually laminated sediments) and non‐varved cores, as the former have limited mixing issues. Our results show that state‐space models can be used to detect regime shifts and critical transitions in some paleolimnological data, especially when the signal‐to‐noise ratio is strong. However, if the records are noisy, the online DLM and TVARSS have limitations for detecting critical transitions in sediment records.

Recent decades have witnessed widespread deoxygenation of temperate lakes. The intricate interplay between climate change and nutrient loading and its impact on oxygen dynamics still lacks clear understanding. We develop a paleo-data-model coupling approach to investigate long-term variations of dissolved oxygen conditions in Lake Geneva over the period 1850-2100. Our approach provides first estimates of oxygen baseline conditions and quantifies duration of hypoxia since pre-disturbance. Over the 19 th and 20 th centuries, an increase in DO consumption rates (from 0.3 to 2.5 g O 2 m À2 d À1 ) following nutrient over-enrichment caused the onset of hypoxia, and its intensity and duration were governed by the combined influence of climatic forcing and high phosphorus concentration. In the future, hypoxia will be primarily disrupted by reduced frequency of full mixing events.

Understanding how internal climate variability influences arctic regions is required to better forecast future global climate variations. This paper investigates an annually-laminated (varved) record from the western Canadian Arctic and finds that the varves are negatively correlated with both the instrumental Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) during the past century and also with reconstructed PDO over the past 700 years, suggesting drier Arctic conditions during high-PDO phases, and vice versa. These results are in agreement with known regional teleconnections, whereby the PDO is negatively and positively correlated with summer precipitation and mean sea level pressure respectively. This pattern is also evident during the positive phase of the North Pacific Index (NPI) in autumn. Reduced sea-ice cover during summer–autumn is observed in the region during PDO− (NPI+) and is associated with low-level southerly winds that originate from the northernmost Pacific across the Bering Strait and can reach as far as the western Canadian Arctic. These climate anomalies are associated with the PDO− (NPI+) phase and are key factors in enhancing evaporation and subsequent precipitation in this region of the Arctic. Collectively, the sedimentary evidence suggests that North Pacific climate variability has been a persistent regulator of the regional climate in the western Canadian Arctic. Since projected sea-ice loss will contribute to enhanced future warming in the Arctic, future negative phases of the PDO (or NPI+) will likely act to amplify this positive feedback.

Accelerated soil erosion has become a pervasive feature on landscapes around the world and is recognized to have substantial implications for land productivity, downstream water quality, and biogeochemical cycles. However, the scarcity of global syntheses that consider long-term processes has limited our understanding of the timing, the amplitude, and the extent of soil erosion over millennial time scales. As such, we lack the ability to make predictions about the responses of soil erosion to long-term climate and land cover changes. Here, we reconstruct sedimentation rates for 632 lakes based on chronologies constrained by 3,980 calibrated 14C ages to assess the relative changes in lake-watershed erosion rates over the last 12,000 y. Estimated soil erosion dynamics were then complemented with land cover reconstructions inferred from 43,669 pollen samples and with climate time series from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. Our results show that a significant portion of the Earth surface shifted to human-driven soil erosion rate already 4,000 y ago. In particular, inferred soil erosion rates increased in 35%of the watersheds, andmost of these sites showed a decrease in the proportion of arboreal pollen, which would be expected with land clearance. Further analysis revealed that land cover change was the main driver of inferred soil erosion in 70% of all studied watersheds. This study suggests that soil erosion has been altering terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems for millennia, leading to carbon (C) losses that could have ultimately induced feedbacks on the climate system.

Like many lakes worldwide, French sub-alpine lakes (lakes Annecy, Bourget and Geneva) have suffered from eutrophication in the mid-20th century. Although restoration measures have been undertaken and resulted in significant reductions in nutrient inputs and concentrations over the last 30 years in all three lakes, the limnological monitoring does not extend back far enough to establish the reference conditions, as defined by the European Water Framework Directive. The over-arching aim of this work was to reconstruct, using a paleolimnological approach, the pre-eutrophication levels and subsequent temporal changes in the lakes trophic status over the last century. The objectives were three-fold: i) to test whether fossil diatoms archived in deep sediment cores adequately reflect past changes in the planktonic diatom communities for these deep sub-alpine lakes based on data from lake Geneva; ii) to investigate changes in the diatom communities over the last 150 years in the three lakes; and iii) to infer the past total phosphorus (TP) concentrations of the lakes from a diatom based transfer function. Annual paleolimnological and limnological diatom countings for lake Geneva were strongly correlated over the last 30 years. Most notable differences essentially resulted from both taphonomic and depositional biases, as evidenced by the underestimation of thin skeleton species such as Asterionella formosa and Diatoma tenuis in the paleolimnological dataset and the presence of many benthic taxa. The fossil diatom records revealed shifts in the communities in the three lakes over time, most of which were changes typically associated with nutrient enrichment. Indeed, in all three lakes, the proportion of Cyclotella spp. was very high before the 1950s, but these species were then replaced by more eutrophic taxa, such as Stephanodiscus spp, by the mid-20th century. From the 1980s, some but not all diatom species typical of re-oligotrophicated conditions (i.e. Cyclotella sp.) re-appeared in all three lakes. Yet, not all changes that occurred in the diatom communities since then may be attributed to decreasing TP. TP concentrations inferred from weighted averaging with classical deshrinking in lake Annecy and lake Geneva and weighted averaging with inverse deshrinking in Lake Bourget were very close to the monitored values. Comparisons of diatom-inferred TP concentrations to other paleo-proxies for trophic status revealed though that the transfer functions were rather insensitive to changes occurring below 10 µg L–1, which limits the study ability to set accurate TP reference conditions below this threshold. However, current diatom community compositions arestill rather different from the pre-eutrophication ones, suggesting that reference conditions are still not achieved.

While considerable insights on the ecological consequences of climate change have been gained from studies conducted on remote lakes, little has been done on lakes under direct human exposure. Ecosystem vulnerability and responses to climate warming might yet largely depend on the ecological state and thus on local anthropogenic pressures. We tested this hypothesis through a paleolimnological approach on three temperate large lakes submitted to rather similar climate warming but varying intensities of analogous local forcings (changes in nutrient inputs and fisheries management practices). Changes in the structure of the cladoceran community were considered as revealing for alterations, over the time, of the pelagic food web. Trajectories of the cladoceran communities were compared among the three study lakes (Lakes Geneva, Bourget, and Annecy) over the last 70-150 years. Generalized additive models were used to develop a hierarchical understanding of the respective roles of local stressors and climate warming in structuring cladoceran communities. The cladoceran communities were not equally affected by climate warming between lakes. In Lake Annecy, which is the most nutrient-limited, the cladoceran community was essentially controlled by local stressors, with very limited impact of climate. In contrast, the more nutrient-loaded Lakes Geneva and Bourget were more sensitive to climate warming, although the magnitude of their responses and the pathways under which climate warming affected the communities varied between the two lakes. Finally, our results demonstrated that lake vulnerability and responses to climate warming are modulated by lake trophic status but can also be altered by fisheries management practices through changes in fish predation pressure.

International audience

We sampled modern chironomids at multiple water depths in Lake Annecy, France, before reconstructing changes in chironomid assemblages at sub-decadal resolution in sediment cores spanning the last 150 years. The lake is a large, deep (z(max) = 65 m), subalpine waterbody that has recently returned to an oligotrophic state. Comparison between the water-depth distributions of living chironomid larvae and subfossil head capsules (HC) along three surface-sediment transects indicated spatial differences in the influence of external forcings on HC deposition (e.g. tributary effects). The transect with the lowest littoral influence and the best-preserved, depth-specific chironomid community characteristics was used for paleolimnological reconstructions at various water depths. At the beginning of the twentieth century, oxygen-rich conditions prevailed in the lake, as inferred from M. contracta-type and Procladius sp. at deep-water sites (i.e. cores from 56 to 65 m) and Paracladius sp. and H. grimshawi-type in the core from 30 m depth. Over time, chironomid assemblages in cores from all three water depths converged toward the dominance of S. coracina-type, indicating enhanced hypoxia. The initial change in chironomid assemblages from the deep-water cores occurred in the 1930s, at the same time that an increase in lake trophic state is inferred from an increase in total organic carbon (TOC) concentration in the sediment. In the 1950s, an assemblage change in the core from 30 m water depth reflects the rapid expansion of the hypoxic layer into the shallower region of the lake. Lake Annecy recovered its oligotrophic state in the 1990s. Chironomid assemblages, however, still indicate hypoxic conditions, suggesting that modern chironomid assemblages in Lake Annecy are decoupled from the lake trophic state. Recent increases in both TOC and the hydrogen index indicate that changes in pelagic functioning have had a strong indirect influence on the composition of the chironomid assemblage. Finally, the dramatic decrease in HC accumulation rate over time suggests that hypoxic conditions are maintained through a feedback loop, wherein the accumulation of (un-consumed) organic matter and subsequent bacterial respiration prevent chironomid re-colonization. We recommend study of sediment cores from multiple water depths, as opposed to investigation of only a single core from the deepest part of the lake, to assess the details of past ecological changes in large deep lakes.

The concentration of dissolved oxygen in aquatic systems helps to regulate biodiversity(1,2), nutrient biogeochemistry(3), greenhouse gas emissions(4), and the quality of drinking water(5). The long-term declines in dissolved oxygen concentrations in coastal and ocean waters have been linked to climate warming and human activity(6,7), but little is known about the changes in dissolved oxygen concentrations in lakes. Although the solubility of dissolved oxygen decreases with increasing water temperatures, long-term lake trajectories are difficult to predict. Oxygen losses in warming lakes may be amplified by enhanced decomposition and stronger thermal stratification(8,9) or oxygen may increase as a result of enhanced primary production(10). Here we analyse a combined total of 45,148 dissolved oxygen and temperature profiles and calculate trends for 393 temperate lakes that span 1941 to 2017. We find that a decline in dissolved oxygen is widespread in surface and deep-water habitats. The decline in surface waters is primarily associated with reduced solubility under warmer water temperatures, although dissolved oxygen in surface waters increased in a subset of highly productive warming lakes, probably owing to increasing production of phytoplankton. By contrast, the decline in deep waters is associated with stronger thermal stratification and loss of water clarity, but not with changes in gas solubility. Our results suggest that climate change and declining water clarity have altered the physical and chemical environment of lakes. Declines in dissolved oxygen in freshwater are 2.75 to 9.3 times greater than observed in the world's oceans(6,7) and could threaten essential lake ecosystem services(2,3,5,11).