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Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC). However, available studies reflect older treatment and surveillance paradigms, and most have assessed risks for incident CRC without taking surveillance and lead-time bias into account, such as by assessing CRC incidence by tumour stage, or stage-adjusted mortality from CRC. We aimed to compare both overall and country-specific risks of CRC mortality and incident CRC among patients with UC. In this population-based cohort study of 96 447 patients with UC in Denmark (n=32 919) and Sweden (n=63 528), patients were followed up for CRC incidence and CRC mortality between Jan 1, 1969, and Dec 31, 2017, and compared with matched reference individuals from the general population (n=949 207). Patients with UC were selected from national registers and included in the analysis if they had two or more records with a relevant International Classification of Disease in the patient register (in the country in question) or one such record plus a colorectal biopsy report with a morphology code suggestive of inflammatory bowel disease. For every patient with UC, we selected matched reference individuals from the total population registers of Denmark and Sweden, who were matched for sex, age, birth year, and place of residence. We used Cox regression to compute hazard ratios (HRs) for incident CRC, and for CRC mortality, taking tumour stage into account. During follow-up, we observed 1336 incident CRCs in the UC cohort (1·29 per 1000 person-years) and 9544 incident CRCs in reference individuals (0·82 per 1000 person-years; HR 1·66, 95% CI 1·57–1·76). In the UC cohort, 639 patients died from CRC (0·55 per 1000 person-years), compared with 4451 reference individuals (0·38 per 1000 person-years; HR 1·59, 95% CI 1·46–1·72) during the same time period. The CRC stage distribution in people with UC was less advanced (p<0·0001) than in matched reference individuals, but taking tumour stage into account, patients with UC and CRC remained at increased risk of CRC death (HR 1·54, 95% CI 1·33–1·78). The excess risks declined over calendar periods: during the last 5 years of follow-up (2013–17, Sweden only), the HR for incident CRC in people with UC was 1·38 (95% CI 1·20–1·60, or one additional case per 1058 patients with UC per 5 years) and the HR for death from CRC was 1·25 (95% CI 1·03–1·51, or one additional case per 3041 patients with UC per 5 years). Compared with those without UC, individuals with UC are at increased risk of developing CRC, are diagnosed with less advanced CRC, and are at increased risk of dying from CRC, although these excess risks have declined substantially over time. There still seems to be room for improvement in international surveillance guidelines. The Swedish Medical Society, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm County Council, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research, Independent Research Fund Denmark, Forte Foundation, Swedish Cancer Foundation.

ObjectivePopulation-based data are lacking regarding the risk of overall and cause-specific mortality across the complete histological spectrum of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).DesignThis nationwide, matched cohort study included all individuals in Sweden with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD (1966 to 2017; n=10 568). NAFLD was confirmed histologically from all liver biopsies submitted to Sweden’s 28 pathology departments, after excluding other etiologies of liver disease, and further categorised as, simple steatosis, non-fibrotic steatohepatitis (NASH), non-cirrhotic fibrosis and cirrhosis. NAFLD cases were matched to ≤5 general population comparators by age, sex, calendar year and county (n=49 925). Using Cox regression, we estimated multivariable-adjusted HRs (aHRs) and 95% CIs.ResultsOver a median of 14.2 years, 4,338 NAFLD patients died. Compared with controls, NAFLD patients had significantly increased overall mortality (16.9 vs 28.6/1000 PY; difference=11.7/1000 PY; aHR=1.93, 95% CI=1.86 to 2.00). Compared with controls, significant excess mortality risk was observed with simple steatosis (8.3/1000 PY, aHR=1.71, 95% CI=1.64 to 1.79), non-fibrotic NASH (13.4/1000 PY, aHR=2.14, 95% CI=1.93 to 2.38), non-cirrhotic fibrosis (18.4/1000 PY, aHR=2.44, 95% CI=2.22 to 2.69) and cirrhosis (53.6/1000 PY, aHR=3.79, 95% CI=3.34 to 4.30)(ptrend <0.01). This dose-dependent gradient was similar when simple steatosis was the reference (ptrend <0.01). The excess mortality associated with NAFLD was primarily from extrahepatic cancer (4.5/1000 PY, aHR=2.16, 95% CI=2.03 to 2.30), followed by cirrhosis (2.7/1000 PY, aHR=18.15, 95% CI=14.78 to 22.30), cardiovascular disease (1.4/1000 PY, aHR=1.35, 95% CI=1.26 to 1.44) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (1.2/1000 PY, aHR=11.12, 95% CI=8.65 to 14.30).ConclusionAll NAFLD histological stages were associated with significantly increased overall mortality, and this risk increased progressively with worsening NAFLD histology. Most of this excess mortality was from extrahepatic cancer and cirrhosis, while in contrast, the contributions of cardiovascular disease and HCC were modest.

ObjectiveSome data suggest a positive association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). However, data are lacking from large cohorts with liver histology, which remains the gold standard for staging NAFLD severity.DesignThis population-based cohort included all Swedish adults with histologically confirmed NAFLD and without cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline (1966–2016, n=10 422). NAFLD was defined from prospectively recorded histopathology and categorised as simple steatosis, non-fibrotic steatohepatitis, non-cirrhotic fibrosis and cirrhosis. Patients with NAFLD were matched to ≤5 population controls without NAFLD or CVD, by age, sex, calendar year and county (n=46 517). Using Cox proportional hazards modelling, we calculated multivariable adjusted HRs (aHRs) and 95% CIs for MACE outcomes (ie, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, congestive heart failure (CHF) or cardiovascular (CV) mortality).ResultsOver a median of 13.6 years, incident MACE was confirmed in 2850 patients with NAFLD and 10 648 controls. Patients with NAFLD had higher incidence of MACE than controls (24.3 vs 16.0/1000 person-years (PY); difference=8.3/1000 PY; aHR 1.63, 95% CI 1.56 to 1.70), including higher rates of IHD (difference=4.2/1000 PY; aHR 1.64, 95% CI 1.54 to 1.75), CHF (difference=3.3/1000 PY; aHR 1.75, 95% CI 1.63 to 1.87), stroke (difference=2.4/1000 PY; aHR 1.58, 95% CI 1.46 to 1.71) and CV mortality (difference=1.2/1000 PY; aHR 1.37, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.48). Rates of incident MACE increased progressively with worsening NAFLD severity (ptrend=0.02), with the highest incidence observed with cirrhosis (difference vs controls=27.2/1000 PY; aHR 2.15, 95% CI 1.77 to 2.61).ConclusionCompared with matched population controls, patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD had significantly higher incidence of MACE, including IHD, stroke, CHF and CV mortality. Excess risk was evident across all stages of NAFLD and increased with worsening disease severity.

ObjectiveEarlier studies on antibiotics exposure and development of IBD (Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC)) may have been biased by familial factors and gastroenteritis. We aimed to estimate the association between antibiotics during pregnancy or infantile age and very early onset (VEO) IBD.DesignIn this cohort study of 827 239 children born in Sweden between 2006 and 2013, we examined the link between exposure to systemic antibiotics and VEO-IBD (diagnosis <6 years of age), using Cox proportional hazard regression models. Information on antibiotics and IBD was retrieved from the nationwide population-based Swedish Prescribed Drug Register and the National Patient Register. We specifically examined potential confounding from parental IBD and gastroenteritis.ResultsChildren exposed to antibiotics during pregnancy were at increased risk of IBD compared with general population controls (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.93; 95% CI 1.06 to 3.50). Corresponding aHRs were 2.48 (95% CI 1.01 to 6.08) for CD and 1.25 (95% CI 0.47 to 3.26) for UC, respectively. For antibiotics in infantile age, the aHR for IBD was 1.11 (95% CI 0.57 to 2.15); for CD 0.72 (95% CI 0.27 to 1.92) and 1.23 (95% CI 0.45 to 3.39) for UC. Excluding children with gastroenteritis 12 months prior to the first IBD diagnosis retained similar aHR for antibiotics during pregnancy and CD, while the association no longer remained significant for IBD.ConclusionWe found that exposure to antibiotics during pregnancy, but not in infantile age, is associated with an increased risk of VEO-IBD regardless of gastroenteritis. The risk increase for exposure in pregnancy may be due to changes in the microbiota.

Education, income, and occupation are factors known to affect health and disease. In this review we describe the Swedish Longitudinal Integrated Database for Health Insurance and Labour Market Studies (LISA, Longitudinell Integrationsdatabas för Sjukförsäkrings- och Arbetsmarknadsstudier). LISA covers the adult Swedish population aged ≥ 16 years registered on December 31 each year since 1990 (since 2010 individuals aged ≥ 15 years). The database was launched in response to rising levels of sick leave in the country. Participation in Swedish government-administered registers such as LISA is compulsory, and hence selection bias is minimized. The LISA database allows researchers to identify individuals who do not work because of injury, disease, or rehabilitation. It contains data on sick leave and disability pension based on calendar year. LISA also includes information on unemployment benefits, disposable income, social welfare payments, civil status, and migration. During 2000–2017, an average of 97,000 individuals immigrated to Sweden each year. This corresponds to about 1% of the Swedish population (10 million people in 2017). Data on occupation have a completeness of 95%. Income data consist primarily of income from employment, capital, and allowances, including parental allowance. In Sweden, work force participation is around 80% (2017: overall: 79.1%; men 80.3% and women 77.9%). Education data are available in > 98% of all individuals aged 25–64 years, with an estimated accuracy for highest attained level of education of 85%. Some information on civil status, income, education, and employment before 1990 can be obtained through the Population and Housing Census data (FoB, Folk- och bostadsräkningen).

Small for gestational age (SGA) has been associated with increased risks of stillbirth and neonatal mortality, but data on long-term childhood mortality are scarce. Maternal antenatal care, including globally reducing the risk of SGA birth, may be key to achieving the Millennium Development Goal of reducing under-5 mortality. We therefore aimed to examine the association between SGA and mortality from 28 days to <18 years using a population-based and a sibling control design. In a Swedish population study, we identified 3,795,603 non-malformed singleton live births and 2,781,464 full siblings born from January 1, 1973, to December 31, 2012. We examined the associations of severe (<3rd percentile) and moderate (3rd to <10th percentile) SGA with risks of death from 28 days to <18 years after birth. Children born SGA were first compared to non-SGA children from the population, and then to non-SGA siblings. The sibling-based analysis, by design, features a better control for unmeasured factors that are shared between siblings (e.g., socioeconomic status, lifestyle, and genetic factors). Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards and flexible parametric survival models. During follow-up (1973-2013), there were 10,838 deaths in the population-based analysis and 1,572 deaths in sibling pairs with discordant SGA and mortality status. The crude mortality rate per 10,000 person-years was 5.32 in children born with severe SGA, 2.76 in children born with moderate SGA, and 1.93 in non-SGA children. Compared with non-SGA children, children born with severe SGA had an increased risk of death in both the population-based (HR = 2.58, 95% CI = 2.38-2.80) and sibling-based (HR = 2.61, 95% CI = 2.19-3.10) analyses. Similar but weaker associations were found for moderate SGA in the population-based (HR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.28-1.47) and sibling-based (HR = 1.38, 95% CI = 1.22-1.56) analyses. The excess risk was most pronounced between 28 days and <1 year of age but remained throughout childhood. The greatest risk increase associated with severe SGA was noted for deaths due to infection and neurologic disease. Although we have, to our knowledge, the largest study sample so far addressing the research question, some subgroup analyses, especially the analysis of cause-specific mortality, had limited statistical power using the sibling-based approach. We found that SGA, especially severe SGA, was associated with an increased risk of childhood death beyond the neonatal period, with the highest risk estimates for death from infection and neurologic disease. The similar results obtained between the population- and sibling-based analyses argue against strong confounding by factors shared within families.

The ESPRESSO study constitutes a novel approach to examine the etiology and prognosis of gastrointestinal disease in which histopathology plays a prominent role. Between 2015 and 2017, all pathology departments (n=28) in Sweden were contacted and asked to procure histopathology record data from the gastrointestinal tract (pharynx to anus), liver, gallbladder, and pancreas. For each individual, local histopathology IT personnel retrieved data on personal identity number, date of histopathology, topography (where the biopsy is taken), morphology (biopsy appearance), and where available free text. In total, between 1965 and 2017, histopathology record data were available in 2.1 million unique individuals, but the number of data entries was 6.1 million because more than one biopsy was performed in many of the study participants. Index individuals with histopathology data were matched with up to five controls from the general population. We also identified all first-degree relatives (parents, children, full siblings), and the index individual's first spouse. The total study population consisted of 13.0 million individuals. Data from all the study participants have been linked to Swedish National Healthcare Registers allowing research not only on such aspects as fetal and perinatal conditions and the risk of future gastrointestinal disease but also on the risk of comorbidity and complications (including cancer and death). Furthermore, the ESPRESSO database allows researchers and practitioners to identify diagnoses and disease phenotypes not currently indexed in national registers (including disease precursors). The ESPRESSO database increases the sensitivity and specificity of already-recorded diseases in the national health registers. This paper is an overview of the ESPRESSO database.