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With substantial risks arising from resource constraints on global growth, serious questions are being posed about how a scarcity of finite resources may impact global social and political fragility. The research which forms the core of this book focuses on how this scarcity will impact the financial sector, especially through insurance, pension and banking activities. The UK finance sector, which is considered to be amongst the most globalised, is placed under the microscope, and its approaches to food and oil are particularly noteworthy. Interviews with senior financial experts are analysed alongside more traditional quantitative economic analysis to explore potential future impacts, the scope of natural resource constraints and their impact on the economy--back cover.

Heart rate variability (HRV) is a cardiac autonomic marker with predictive value in cardiac patients. Ultra-short HRV (usHRV) can be measured at scale using standard and wearable ECGs, but its association with cardiovascular events in the general population is undetermined. We aimed to validate usHRV measured using ≤ 15-s ECGs (using RMSSD, SDSD and PHF indices) and investigate its association with atrial fibrillation, major adverse cardiac events, stroke and mortality in individuals without cardiovascular disease. In the National Survey for Health and Development (n = 1337 participants), agreement between 15-s and 6-min HRV, assessed with correlation analysis and Bland–Altman plots, was very good for RMSSD and SDSD and good for PHF. In the UK Biobank (n = 51,628 participants, 64% male, median age 58), after a median follow-up of 11.5 (11.4–11.7) years, incidence of outcomes ranged between 1.7% and 4.3%. Non-linear Cox regression analysis showed that reduced usHRV from 15-, 10- and 5-s ECGs was associated with all outcomes. Individuals with low usHRV (< 20th percentile) had hazard ratios for outcomes between 1.16 and 1.29, p  < 0.05, with respect to the reference group. In conclusion, usHRV from ≤ 15-s ECGs correlates with standard short-term HRV and predicts increased risk of cardiovascular events in a large population-representative cohort.

This book presents a new and innovative approach to understanding the dynamics of international climate change negotiations using India as a focal point. The authors consider India's negotiating position at multilateral climate negotiations and its focus on the notion of 'equity' and its new avatar 'climate justice'. This book delves into the media's representation of India as a rural economy, a rising industrial power, a developing country, a member of the 5 emerging economies (BRICS), and a country with severe resource security issues, in order to examine the diverse and at time divergent narratives on India's national identity in the context of policy formulation. Those researching such diverse fields as international development, politics, economics, climate change, and international law will find this book offers useful insights into the motivations and drivers of a nation's response to climate change imperatives. Samir Saran is Vice President at the Observer Research Foundation, India. He is honorary Director of the centre for peace and conflict studies at the Sardar Patel Police University (SPUP) and faculty at a number of other schools and programs. His research interests include: the representation of Islam and mediation of radicalism, climate change, internet governance and cyber security, and the emergence of BRICS in the international order. Aled Jones is Director of the Global Sustainability Institute (GSI) at Anglia Ruskin University, UK. His research focusses on the finance sector and government and how they will respond to the impacts of global resource trends and climate change.

Background Health‐care service users are often being described as ‘co‐producers’ with an active role in their care. However, there are challenges associated with this approach, including how standardization affects personalized care, and the ability of patients to retain high volumes of information. Objective Our study explores patient and nursing perspectives of information provision in the pre‐admission element of an Enhanced Recovery After Surgery programme, an evidence‐based approach implemented to improve the quality of surgical care. Our analysis has been informed by an evidence‐based model developed by Grande et al Patient Educ Couns. 2014;95:281. Design/Setting and participants This was a qualitative study including observations of pre‐admission clinics and semi‐structured interviews across three surgical wards. Patients (n = 21) and registered nurses (n = 21) were purposively selected for interviews. Results Patients welcomed the opportunity for active involvement in their care. However, we also identified informational boundaries and how illness and treatment‐related anxieties were barriers to patient engagement with the information provided. Discussion We recommend that to support a patient‐centred and individualized approach to patient involvement the ‘information (giving) + activation’ element of Grande et al Patient Educ Couns. 2014;95:281 model be reconfigured to allow for ‘information (giving) + exploration +activation’. Conclusion Nurses need to feel empowered to adopt strategies that allow for different informational needs, rather than adopting a one‐size‐fits‐all paternalistic approach. Patient contribution This study focused on patient involvement and we give thanks to all the patients who took part in interviews and those who allowed us to observe their care.

In response to political and social factors over the last sixty years mental health systems internationally have endeavoured to transfer the delivery of care from hospitals into community settings. As a result, there has been increased emphasis on the need for better quality care planning and care coordination between hospital services, community services and patients and their informal carers. The aim of this systematic review of international research is to explore which interventions have proved more or less effective in promoting personalized, recovery oriented care planning and coordination for community mental health service users. A systematic meta-narrative review of research from 1990 to the present was undertaken. From an initial return of 3940 papers a total of 50 research articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria, including research from the UK, Australia and the USA. Three research traditions are identified consisting of (a) research that evaluates the effects of government policies on the organization, management and delivery of services; (b) evaluations of attempts to improve organizational and service delivery efficiency; (c) service-users and carers experiences of community mental health care coordination and planning and their involvement in research. The review found no seminal papers in terms of high citation rates, or papers that were consistently cited over time. The traditions of research in this topic area have formed reactively in response to frequent and often unpredictable policy changes, rather than proactively as a result of intrinsic academic or intellectual activity. This may explain the absence of seminal literature within the subject field. As a result, the research tradition within this specific area of mental health service delivery has a relatively short history, with no one dominant researcher or researchers, tradition or seminal studies amongst or across the three traditions identified. The research findings reviewed suggests a gap has existed internationally over several decades between policy aspirations and service level interventions aimed at improving personalised care planning and coordination and the realities of everyday practices and experiences of service users and carers. Substantial barriers to involvement are created through poor information exchange and insufficient opportunities for care negotiation.

Background Migrant and ethnic inequalities in maternal and perinatal mortality persist across high‐income countries. Addressing social adversity and inequities across the childbirth trajectory cannot be left to chance and the good intentions of practitioners. Robust, evidence‐based tools designed to address inequity by enhancing both the quality of provision and the experience of care are needed. Methods An inductive modelling approach was used to develop a new evidence‐based conceptual model of woman–midwife relationships, drawing on data from an ethnographic study of relationships between migrant Pakistani women and midwives, conducted between 2013 and 2016 in South Wales, UK. Key analytic themes from early data were translated into social–ecological concepts, and a model was developed to represent how these key themes interacted to influence the woman–midwife relationship. Results Three key concepts influencing the woman–midwife relationship were developed from the three major themes of the underpinning research: (1) Healthcare System; (2) Culture and Religion; and (3) Family Relationships. Two additional weaving concepts appeared to act as a link between these three key concepts: (1) Authoritative Knowledge and (2) Communication of Information. Social and political factors were also considered as contextual factors within the model. A visual representation of this model was developed and presented. Conclusions The model presented in this paper, along with future work to further test and refine it in other contexts, has the potential to impact on inequalities by facilitating future discussion on cultural issues, encouraging collaborative learning and knowledge production and providing a framework for future global midwifery practice, education and research. Patient or Public Contribution At the outset of the underpinning research, a project involvement group was created to contribute to study design and conduct. This group consisted of the three authors, an Advocacy Officer at Race Equality First and an NHS Consultant Midwife. This group met regularly throughout the research process, and members were involved in discussions regarding ethical/cultural/social issues, recruitment methods, the creation of participant information materials, interpretation of data and the dissemination strategy. Ideas for the underpinning research were also discussed with members of the Pakistani community during community events and at meetings with staff from minority ethnic and migrant support charities (BAWSO, Race Equality First, The Mentor Ring). Local midwives contributed to study design through conversations during informal observations of antenatal appointments for asylum seekers and refugees.

Background Involving mental health service users in planning and reviewing their care can help personalised care focused on recovery, with the aim of developing goals specific to the individual and designed to maximise achievements and social integration. We aimed to ascertain the views of service users, carers and staff in acute inpatient wards on factors that facilitated or acted as barriers to collaborative, recovery-focused care. Methods A cross-national comparative mixed-methods study involving 19 mental health wards in six service provider sites in England and Wales. This included a survey using established standardised measures of service users ( n  = 301) and staff ( n  = 290) and embedded case studies involving interviews with staff, service users and carers ( n  = 76). Quantitative and qualitative data were analysed within and across sites using descriptive and inferential statistics, and framework method. Results For service users, when recovery-oriented focus was high, the quality of care was rated highly, as was the quality of therapeutic relationships. For staff, there was a moderate correlation between recovery orientation and quality of therapeutic relationships, with considerable variability. Staff members rated the quality of therapeutic relationships higher than service users did. Staff accounts of routine collaboration contrasted with a more mixed picture in service user accounts. Definitions and understandings of recovery varied, as did views of hospital care in promoting recovery. Managing risk was a central issue for staff, and service users were aware of measures taken to keep them safe, although their involvement in discussions was less apparent. Conclusions There is positive practice within acute inpatient wards, with evidence of commitment to safe, respectful, compassionate care. Recovery ideas were evident but there remained ambivalence on their relevance to inpatient care. Service users were aware of efforts taken to keep them safe, but despite measures described by staff, they did not feel routinely involved in care planning or risk management decisions. Research on increasing therapeutic contact time, shared decision making in risk assessment and using recovery focused tools could further promote personalised and recovery-focused care planning. This paper arises from a larger study published by National Institute for Health Research (Simpson A, et al, Health Serv Deliv Res 5(26), 2017).

Background Midwifery continuity of carer (MCoC) is a model of care in which the same midwife or small team of midwives supports women throughout pregnancy, birth and the postnatal period. The model has been prioritised by policy makers in a number of high-income countries, but widespread implementation and sustainability has proved challenging. Methods In this narrative review and synthesis of the global literature on the implementation and sustainability of midwifery continuity of carer, we identify barriers to, and facilitators of, this model of delivering maternity care. By mapping existing research evidence onto the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR), we identify factors for organisations to consider when planning and implementing midwifery continuity of carer as well as gaps in the current research evidence. Results Analysing international evidence using the CFIR shows that evidence around midwifery continuity of carer implementation is patchy and fragmented, and that the impetus for change is not critically examined. Existing literature pays insufficient attention to core aspects of the innovation such as the centrality of on call working arrangements and alignment with the professional values of midwifery. There is also limited attention to the political and structural contexts into which midwifery continuity of carer is introduced. Conclusions By synthesizing international research evidence with the CFIR, we identify factors for organisations to consider when planning and implementing midwifery continuity of carer. We also call for more systematic and contextual evidence to aid understanding of the implementation or non-implementation of midwifery continuity of carer. Existing evidence should be critically evaluated and used more cautiously in support of claims about the model of care and its implementation, especially when implementation is occurring in different settings and contexts to the research being cited.

Background Unprofessional behaviour (UB) between staff encompasses various behaviours, including incivility, microaggressions, harassment, and bullying. UB is pervasive in acute healthcare settings and disproportionately impacts minoritised staff. UB has detrimental effects on staff wellbeing, patient safety and organisational resources. While interventions have been implemented to mitigate UB, there is limited understanding of how and why they may work and for whom. Methods This study utilised a realist review methodology with stakeholder input to improve understanding of these complex context-dependent interventions. Initial programme theories were formulated drawing upon scoping searches and reports known to the study team. Purposive systematic searches were conducted to gather grey and published global literature from databases. Documents were selected if relevant to UB in acute care settings while considering rigour and relevance. Data were extracted from these reports, synthesised, and initial theories tested, to produce refined programme theories. Results Of 2977 deduplicated records, 148 full text reports were included with 42 reports describing interventions to address UB in acute healthcare settings. Interventions drew on 13 types of behaviour change strategies and were categorised into five types of intervention (1) single session (i.e. one off); (2) multiple session; (3) single or multiple sessions combined with other actions (e.g. training sessions plus a code of conduct); (4) professional accountability and reporting programmes and; (5) structured culture change interventions. We formulated 55 context-mechanism-outcome configurations to explain how, why, and when these interventions work. We identified twelve key dynamics to consider in intervention design, including importance of addressing systemic contributors, rebuilding trust in managers, and promoting a psychologically safe culture; fifteen implementation principles were identified to address these dynamics. Conclusions Interventions to address UB are still at an early stage of development, and their effectiveness to reduce UB and improve patient safety is unclear. Future interventions should incorporate knowledge from behavioural and implementation science to affect behaviour change; draw on multiple concurrent strategies to address systemic contributors to UB; and consider the undue burden of UB on minoritised groups. Study registration This study was registered on the international database of prospectively registered systematic reviews in health and social care (PROSPERO): https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42021255490 .

Induced innovation is a multi-faceted process characterized by interaction between demand-pull forces, path-dependent self-reinforcing change, and the cost reduction of technology that occurs with cumulative deployment. By endogenously including induced innovation in energy models, policy analysts and modellers could enable a mission-oriented approach to policymaking that envisions the opportunities of accelerating the low-carbon energy transition while avoiding the risks of inaction. While the integrated assessment models used in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC-IAMs) account for induced innovation, their assumptions of general equilibrium and optimality may reveal weaknesses that produce unsatisfactory results for policymakers. In this paper, we develop a menu of options for modelling induced innovation in the energy transition with non-equilibrium, non-optimal models by a three step methodology: a modelling survey questionnaire, a review of the literature, and an analysis of case studies from modelling applications within the economics of energy innovation and system transition (EEIST) programme. The survey questionnaire allows us to compare 24 models from EEIST partner institutions developed to inform energy and decarbonisation policy decisions. We find that only six models, future technological transformations, green investment barriers mode, stochastic e xperience c urves, economy-energy-environment macro-econometric, M3E3 and Dystopian Schumpeter meeting Keynes, represent endogenous innovation—in the form of learning curves, R&D, and spillover effects. The review of the literature and analysis of case studies allow us to form a typology of different models of induced innovation alongside the IPCC-IAMs and develop a decision tree to guide policy analysts and modellers in the choice of the most appropriate models to answer specific policy questions. The paper provides evidence for integrating narrow and systemic approaches to modelling-induced innovation in the context of low-carbon energy transition, and promotes cooperation instead of competition between different but complementary approaches. These findings are consistent with the implementation of risk-opportunity analysis as a policy appraisal method to evaluate low-carbon transition pathways.