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Diabetes is one of the fastest growing diseases worldwide, projected to affect 693 million adults by 2045. Devastating macrovascular complications (cardiovascular disease) and microvascular complications (such as diabetic kidney disease, diabetic retinopathy and neuropathy) lead to increased mortality, blindness, kidney failure and an overall decreased quality of life in individuals with diabetes. Clinical risk factors and glycaemic control alone cannot predict the development of vascular complications; numerous genetic studies have demonstrated a clear genetic component to both diabetes and its complications. Early research aimed at identifying genetic determinants of diabetes complications relied on familial linkage analysis suited to strong-effect loci, candidate gene studies prone to false positives, and underpowered genome-wide association studies limited by sample size. The explosion of new genomic datasets, both in terms of biobanks and aggregation of worldwide cohorts, has more than doubled the number of genetic discoveries for both diabetes and diabetes complications. We focus herein on genetic discoveries for diabetes and diabetes complications, empowered primarily through genome-wide association studies, and emphasize the gaps in research for taking genomic discovery to the next level.This Review describes advances in genomic analysis that have enabled novel genetic discoveries, more than doubled the number of genetic loci associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus and uncovered several novel candidate genes for diabetes complications.

Unhealthful dietary habits are leading risk factors for life-altering diseases and mortality. Large-scale biobanks now enable genetic analysis of traits with modest heritability, such as diet. We perform a genomewide association on 85 single food intake and 85 principal component-derived dietary patterns from food frequency questionnaires in UK Biobank. We identify 814 associated loci, including olfactory receptor associations with fruit and tea intake; 136 associations are only identified using dietary patterns. Mendelian randomization suggests our top healthful dietary pattern driven by wholemeal vs. white bread consumption is causally influenced by factors correlated with education but is not strongly causal for coronary artery disease or type 2 diabetes. Overall, we demonstrate the value in complementary phenotyping approaches to complex dietary datasets, and the utility of genomic analysis to understand the relationships between diet and human health. The choice of food intake is at least partially influenced by genetics, even though the effect sizes appear rather modest. Here, Cole et al. perform GWAS for food intake (85 individual food items and 85 derived dietary patterns) and test potential causal relationships with cardiometabolic traits using Mendelian randomization.

Epidemiological studies report associations of diverse cardiometabolic conditions including obesity with COVID-19 illness, but causality has not been established. We sought to evaluate the associations of 17 cardiometabolic traits with COVID-19 susceptibility and severity using 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses. We selected genetic variants associated with each exposure, including body mass index (BMI), at p < 5 × 10-8 from genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We then calculated inverse-variance-weighted averages of variant-specific estimates using summary statistics for susceptibility and severity from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative GWAS meta-analyses of population-based cohorts and hospital registries comprising individuals with self-reported or genetically inferred European ancestry. Susceptibility was defined as testing positive for COVID-19 and severity was defined as hospitalization with COVID-19 versus population controls (anyone not a case in contributing cohorts). We repeated the analysis for BMI with effect estimates from the UK Biobank and performed pairwise multivariable MR to estimate the direct effects and indirect effects of BMI through obesity-related cardiometabolic diseases. Using p < 0.05/34 tests = 0.0015 to declare statistical significance, we found a nonsignificant association of genetically higher BMI with testing positive for COVID-19 (14,134 COVID-19 cases/1,284,876 controls, p = 0.002; UK Biobank: odds ratio 1.06 [95% CI 1.02, 1.10] per kg/m2; p = 0.004]) and a statistically significant association with higher risk of COVID-19 hospitalization (6,406 hospitalized COVID-19 cases/902,088 controls, p = 4.3 × 10-5; UK Biobank: odds ratio 1.14 [95% CI 1.07, 1.21] per kg/m2, p = 2.1 × 10-5). The implied direct effect of BMI was abolished upon conditioning on the effect on type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease, stroke, and chronic kidney disease. No other cardiometabolic exposures tested were associated with a higher risk of poorer COVID-19 outcomes. Small study samples and weak genetic instruments could have limited the detection of modest associations, and pleiotropy may have biased effect estimates away from the null. In this study, we found genetic evidence to support higher BMI as a causal risk factor for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity. These results raise the possibility that obesity could amplify COVID-19 disease burden independently or through its cardiometabolic consequences and suggest that targeting obesity may be a strategy to reduce the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes.

Abstract During the last decade, there have been substantial advances in the identification and characterization of DNA sequence variants associated with individual predisposition to type 1 and type 2 diabetes. As well as providing insights into the molecular, cellular, and physiological mechanisms involved in disease pathogenesis, these risk variants, when combined into a polygenic score, capture information on individual patterns of disease predisposition that have the potential to influence clinical management. In this review, we describe the various opportunities that polygenic scores provide: to predict diabetes risk, to support differential diagnosis, and to understand phenotypic and clinical heterogeneity. We also describe the challenges that will need to be overcome if this potential is to be fully realized.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have long relied on proposed statistical significance thresholds to be able to differentiate true positives from false positives. Although the genome-wide significance P-value threshold of 5 × 10(-8) has become a standard for common-variant GWAS, it has not been updated to cope with the lower allele frequency spectrum used in many recent array-based GWAS studies and sequencing studies. Using a whole-genome- and -exome-sequencing data set of 2875 individuals of European ancestry from the Genetics of Type 2 Diabetes (GoT2D) project and a whole-exome-sequencing data set of 13 000 individuals from five ancestries from the GoT2D and T2D-GENES (Type 2 Diabetes Genetic Exploration by Next-generation sequencing in multi-Ethnic Samples) projects, we describe guidelines for genome- and exome-wide association P-value thresholds needed to correct for multiple testing, explaining the impact of linkage disequilibrium thresholds for distinguishing independent variants, minor allele frequency and ancestry characteristics. We emphasize the advantage of studying recent genetic isolate populations when performing rare and low-frequency genetic association analyses, as the multiple testing burden is diminished due to higher genetic homogeneity.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous disease for which (1) disease-causing pathways are incompletely understood and (2) subclassification may improve patient management. Unlike other biomarkers, germline genetic markers do not change with disease progression or treatment. In this paper, we test whether a germline genetic approach informed by physiology can be used to deconstruct T2D heterogeneity. First, we aimed to categorize genetic loci into groups representing likely disease mechanistic pathways. Second, we asked whether the novel clusters of genetic loci we identified have any broad clinical consequence, as assessed in four separate subsets of individuals with T2D. In an effort to identify mechanistic pathways driven by established T2D genetic loci, we applied Bayesian nonnegative matrix factorization (bNMF) clustering to genome-wide association study (GWAS) results for 94 independent T2D genetic variants and 47 diabetes-related traits. We identified five robust clusters of T2D loci and traits, each with distinct tissue-specific enhancer enrichment based on analysis of epigenomic data from 28 cell types. Two clusters contained variant-trait associations indicative of reduced beta cell function, differing from each other by high versus low proinsulin levels. The three other clusters displayed features of insulin resistance: obesity mediated (high body mass index [BMI] and waist circumference [WC]), \"lipodystrophy-like\" fat distribution (low BMI, adiponectin, and high-density lipoprotein [HDL] cholesterol, and high triglycerides), and disrupted liver lipid metabolism (low triglycerides). Increased cluster genetic risk scores were associated with distinct clinical outcomes, including increased blood pressure, coronary artery disease (CAD), and stroke. We evaluated the potential for clinical impact of these clusters in four studies containing individuals with T2D (Metabolic Syndrome in Men Study [METSIM], N = 487; Ashkenazi, N = 509; Partners Biobank, N = 2,065; UK Biobank [UKBB], N = 14,813). Individuals with T2D in the top genetic risk score decile for each cluster reproducibly exhibited the predicted cluster-associated phenotypes, with approximately 30% of all individuals assigned to just one cluster top decile. Limitations of this study include that the genetic variants used in the cluster analysis were restricted to those associated with T2D in populations of European ancestry. Our approach identifies salient T2D genetically anchored and physiologically informed pathways, and supports the use of genetics to deconstruct T2D heterogeneity. Classification of patients by these genetic pathways may offer a step toward genetically informed T2D patient management.

[...]they incorporated the PS into cluster analyses of baseline routine clinical characteristics, replicating clusters defined in European populations and identifying a cluster resembling a subgroup of severe insulin deficiency. Transferability of PSs and T2D clusters to other ethnicities The generation of ethnicity-specific T2D PS for every subethnic group remains aspirational, as the large sample sizes needed to do this robustly are prohibitive (the genetic ancestry of the Indian subcontinent, for example, is more diverse than the whole of Europe [9]). [...]strategies to utilise existing scores derived from other populations, or leveraging multi-ancestry GWAS, have predominated. [...]the risk of undiagnosed diabetes in some control participants cannot be excluded. [...]the application of process-specific PS (scores that cluster SNPs based on physiological associations) has huge potential to interrogate the biology underlying T2D [14].

Both genetic and lifestyle factors contribute to the risk of type 2 diabetes, but the extent to which there is a synergistic effect of the 2 factors is unclear. The aim of this study was to examine the joint associations of genetic risk and diet quality with incident type 2 diabetes. We analyzed data from 35,759 men and women in the United States participating in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) I (1986 to 2016) and II (1991 to 2017) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS; 1986 to 2016) with available genetic data and who did not have diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer at baseline. Genetic risk was characterized using both a global polygenic score capturing overall genetic risk and pathway-specific polygenic scores denoting distinct pathophysiological mechanisms. Diet quality was assessed using the Alternate Healthy Eating Index (AHEI). Cox models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for type 2 diabetes after adjusting for potential confounders. With over 902,386 person-years of follow-up, 4,433 participants were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. The relative risk of type 2 diabetes was 1.29 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25, 1.32; P < 0.001) per standard deviation (SD) increase in global polygenic score and 1.13 (1.09, 1.17; P < 0.001) per 10-unit decrease in AHEI. Irrespective of genetic risk, low diet quality, as compared to high diet quality, was associated with approximately 30% increased risk of type 2 diabetes (Pinteraction = 0.69). The joint association of low diet quality and increased genetic risk was similar to the sum of the risk associated with each factor alone (Pinteraction = 0.30). Limitations of this study include the self-report of diet information and possible bias resulting from inclusion of highly educated participants with available genetic data. These data provide evidence for the independent associations of genetic risk and diet quality with incident type 2 diabetes and suggest that a healthy diet is associated with lower diabetes risk across all levels of genetic risk.

Amino acid profiles could aid in diabetes risk assessment, as a five-amino-acid signature had highly significant associations with the development of future diabetes in two large, independent cohorts. Emerging technologies allow the high-throughput profiling of metabolic status from a blood specimen (metabolomics). We investigated whether metabolite profiles could predict the development of diabetes. Among 2,422 normoglycemic individuals followed for 12 years, 201 developed diabetes. Amino acids, amines and other polar metabolites were profiled in baseline specimens by liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS). Cases and controls were matched for age, body mass index and fasting glucose. Five branched-chain and aromatic amino acids had highly significant associations with future diabetes: isoleucine, leucine, valine, tyrosine and phenylalanine. A combination of three amino acids predicted future diabetes (with a more than fivefold higher risk for individuals in top quartile). The results were replicated in an independent, prospective cohort. These findings underscore the potential key role of amino acid metabolism early in the pathogenesis of diabetes and suggest that amino acid profiles could aid in diabetes risk assessment.

Aims/hypothesis Type 2 diabetes is highly polygenic and influenced by multiple biological pathways. Rapid expansion in the number of type 2 diabetes loci can be leveraged to identify such pathways. Methods We developed a high-throughput pipeline to enable clustering of type 2 diabetes loci based on variant–trait associations. Our pipeline extracted summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for type 2 diabetes and related traits to generate a matrix of 323 variants × 64 trait associations and applied Bayesian non-negative matrix factorisation (bNMF) to identify genetic components of type 2 diabetes. Epigenomic enrichment analysis was performed in 28 cell types and single pancreatic cells. We generated cluster-specific polygenic scores and performed regression analysis in an independent cohort ( N =25,419) to assess for clinical relevance. Results We identified ten clusters of genetic loci, recapturing the five from our prior analysis as well as novel clusters related to beta cell dysfunction, pronounced insulin secretion, and levels of alkaline phosphatase, lipoprotein A and sex hormone-binding globulin. Four clusters related to mechanisms of insulin deficiency, five to insulin resistance and one had an unclear mechanism. The clusters displayed tissue-specific epigenomic enrichment, notably with the two beta cell clusters differentially enriched in functional and stressed pancreatic beta cell states. Additionally, cluster-specific polygenic scores were differentially associated with patient clinical characteristics and outcomes. The pipeline was applied to coronary artery disease and chronic kidney disease, identifying multiple overlapping clusters with type 2 diabetes. Conclusions/interpretation Our approach stratifies type 2 diabetes loci into physiologically interpretable genetic clusters associated with distinct tissues and clinical outcomes. The pipeline allows for efficient updating as additional GWAS become available and can be readily applied to other conditions, facilitating clinical translation of GWAS findings. Software to perform this clustering pipeline is freely available. Graphical abstract