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India has long been thought to have more snakebites than any other country. However, inadequate hospital-based reporting has resulted in estimates of total annual snakebite mortality ranging widely from about 1,300 to 50,000. We calculated direct estimates of snakebite mortality from a national mortality survey. We conducted a nationally representative study of 123,000 deaths from 6,671 randomly selected areas in 2001-03. Full-time, non-medical field workers interviewed living respondents about all deaths. The underlying causes were independently coded by two of 130 trained physicians. Discrepancies were resolved by anonymous reconciliation or, failing that, by adjudication. A total of 562 deaths (0.47% of total deaths) were assigned to snakebites. Snakebite deaths occurred mostly in rural areas (97%), were more common in males (59%) than females (41%), and peaked at ages 15-29 years (25%) and during the monsoon months of June to September. This proportion represents about 45,900 annual snakebite deaths nationally (99% CI 40,900 to 50,900) or an annual age-standardised rate of 4.1/100,000 (99% CI 3.6-4.5), with higher rates in rural areas (5.4/100,000; 99% CI 4.8-6.0), and with the highest state rate in Andhra Pradesh (6.2). Annual snakebite deaths were greatest in the states of Uttar Pradesh (8,700), Andhra Pradesh (5,200), and Bihar (4,500). Snakebite remains an underestimated cause of accidental death in modern India. Because a large proportion of global totals of snakebites arise from India, global snakebite totals might also be underestimated. Community education, appropriate training of medical staff and better distribution of antivenom, especially to the 13 states with the highest prevalence, could reduce snakebite deaths in India.

National malaria death rates are difficult to assess because reliably diagnosed malaria is likely to be cured, and deaths in the community from undiagnosed malaria could be misattributed in retrospective enquiries to other febrile causes of death, or vice-versa. We aimed to estimate plausible ranges of malaria mortality in India, the most populous country where the disease remains common. Full-time non-medical field workers interviewed families or other respondents about each of 122 000 deaths during 2001–03 in 6671 randomly selected areas of India, obtaining a half-page narrative plus answers to specific questions about the severity and course of any fevers. Each field report was sent to two of 130 trained physicians, who independently coded underlying causes, with discrepancies resolved either via anonymous reconciliation or adjudication. Of all coded deaths at ages 1 month to 70 years, 2681 (3·6%) of 75 342 were attributed to malaria. Of these, 2419 (90%) were in rural areas and 2311 (86%) were not in any health-care facility. Death rates attributed to malaria correlated geographically with local malaria transmission ratesderived independently from the Indian malaria control programme. The adjudicated results show 205 000 malaria deaths per year in India before age 70 years (55 000 in early childhood, 30 000 at ages 5–14 years, 120 000 at ages 15–69 years); 1·8% cumulative probability of death from malaria before age 70 years. Plausible lower and upper bounds (on the basis of only the initial coding) were 125 000–277 000. Malaria accounted for a substantial minority of about 1·3 million unattended rural fever deaths attributed to infectious diseases in people younger than 70 years. Despite uncertainty as to which unattended febrile deaths are from malaria, even the lower bound greatly exceeds the WHO estimate of only 15 000 malaria deaths per year in India (5000 early childhood, 10 000 thereafter). This low estimate should be reconsidered, as should the low WHO estimate of adult malaria deaths worldwide. US National Institutes of Health, Canadian Institute of Health Research, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute.

Background Malaria in India has been difficult to measure. Mortality and morbidity are not comprehensively reported, impeding efforts to track changes in disease burden. However, a set of blood measures has been collected regularly by the National Malaria Control Program in most districts since 1958. Methods Here, we use principal components analysis to combine these measures into a single index, the Summary Index of Malaria Surveillance (SIMS), and then test its temporal and geographic stability using subsets of the data. Results The SIMS correlates positively with all its individual components and with external measures of mortality and morbidity. It is highly consistent and stable over time (1995-2005) and regions of India. It includes measures of both vivax and falciparum malaria, with vivax dominant at lower transmission levels and falciparum dominant at higher transmission levels, perhaps due to ecological specialization of the species. Conclusions This measure should provide a useful tool for researchers looking to summarize geographic or temporal trends in malaria in India, and can be readily applied by administrators with no mathematical or scientific background. We include a spreadsheet that allows simple calculation of the index for researchers and local administrators. Similar principles are likely applicable worldwide, though further validation is needed before using the SIMS outside India.

Acute abdominal conditions have high case-fatality rates in the absence of timely surgical care. In India, and many other low-income and middle-income countries, few population-based studies have quantified mortality from surgical conditions and related mortality to access to surgical care. We aimed to describe the spatial and socioeconomic distributions of deaths from acute abdomen (DAA) in India and to quantify potential access to surgical facilities in relation to such deaths. We examined deaths from acute abdominal conditions within a nationally representative, population-based mortality survey of 1·1 million Indian households and linked these to nationally representative facility data. Spatial clustering of deaths from acute abdominal conditions was calculated with the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic from about 4000 postal codes. We compared high or low acute abdominal mortality clusters for their geographic access to well-resourced surgical care (24 h surgical and anaesthesia services, blood bank, critical care beds, basic laboratory, and radiology). 923 (1·1%) of 86 806 study deaths in those aged 0–69 years were identified as deaths from acute abdominal conditions, corresponding to an estimated 72 000 deaths nationally in India in 2010. Most deaths occurred at home (71%), in rural areas (87%), and were caused by peptic ulcer disease (79%). There was wide variation in rates of deaths from acute abdominal conditions. We identified 393 high-mortality geographic clusters and 567 low-mortality clusters. High-mortality clusters of acute abdominal conditions were located significantly further from well-resourced hospitals than were low-mortality clusters. The odds ratio of a postal code area being a high-mortality cluster was 4·4 (99% CI 3·2–6·0) for living 50 km or more from well-resourced district hospitals (rising to an OR of 16·1 for >100 km), after adjustment for socioeconomic status and caste. Improvements in human and physical resources at existing public hospitals are required to reduce deaths from acute abdominal conditions in India. Had all of the Indian population had access to well-resourced hospitals within 50 km, more than 50 000 deaths from acute abdominal conditions could have been averted in 2010, and likely more from other emergency surgical conditions. Our geocoded facility data were limited to public district hospitals. However, noting the high rate of catastrophic health expenditures in India, we chose to focus on publicly provided services which are the only option usually available to the poor. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, and Canadian Institute of Health Research.

Malaria in India has been difficult to measure. Mortality and morbidity are not comprehensively reported, impeding efforts to track changes in disease burden. However, a set of blood measures has been collected regularly by the National Malaria Control Program in most districts since 1958. Here, we use principal components analysis to combine these measures into a single index, the Summary Index of Malaria Surveillance (SIMS), and then test its temporal and geographic stability using subsets of the data. The SIMS correlates positively with all its individual components and with external measures of mortality and morbidity. It is highly consistent and stable over time (1995-2005) and regions of India. It includes measures of both vivax and falciparum malaria, with vivax dominant at lower transmission levels and falciparum dominant at higher transmission levels, perhaps due to ecological specialization of the species. This measure should provide a useful tool for researchers looking to summarize geographic or temporal trends in malaria in India, and can be readily applied by administrators with no mathematical or scientific background. We include a spreadsheet that allows simple calculation of the index for researchers and local administrators. Similar principles are likely applicable worldwide, though further validation is needed before using the SIMS outside India.

[...] confirmation bias might have led to overdiagnosis of malaria among fever deaths in endemic areas; coding physicians were aware of the state in which each death occurred. [...] although N K Shah and colleagues suggest a case-fatality rate of only 0.1-0.3% for P falciparum, the true risk of death in rural untreated individuals with fever due to P falciparum could well be an order of magnitude higher.