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Background. There is limited information on the association between colonization density of upper respiratory tract colonizers and pathogen-specific pneumonia. We assessed this association for Haemophilus influenzae, Moraxella catarrhalis, Staphylococcus aureus, and Pneumocystis jirovecii. Methods. In 7 low- and middle-income countries, nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs from children with severe pneumonia and age-frequency matched community controls were tested using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Differences in median colonization density were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Density cutoffs were determined using receiver operating characteristic curves. Cases with a pathogen identified from lung aspirate culture or PCR, pleural fluid culture or PCR, blood culture, and immunofluorescence for P. jirovecii defined microbiologically confirmed cases for the given pathogens. Results. Higher densities of H. influenzae were observed in both microbiologically confirmed cases and chest radiograph (CXR)–positive cases compared to controls. Staphylococcus aureus and P. jirovecii had higher densities in CXR-positive cases vs controls. A 5.9 log10 copies/mL density cutoff for H. influenzae yielded 86% sensitivity and 77% specificity for detecting microbiologically confirmed cases; however, densities overlapped between cases and controls and positive predictive values were poor (<3%). Informative density cutoffs were not found for S. aureus and M. catarrhalis, and a lack of confirmed case data limited the cutoff identification for P. jirovecii. Conclusions. There is evidence for an association between H. influenzae colonization density and H. influenzae–confirmed pneumonia in children; the association may be particularly informative in epidemiologic studies. Colonization densities of M. catarrhalis, S. aureus, and P. jirovecii are unlikely to be of diagnostic value in clinical settings.

IntroductionShort message service (SMS) reminders coupled with a small monetary incentive conditioned on prompt vaccination have been shown to improve first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) uptake. We assessed whether SMS reminders and unconditional monetary incentives—more amenable to programmatic implementation—can improve MCV1 uptake in Kenya.MethodsCaregivers of eligible infants aged 6–8 months were enrolled into an individually randomised controlled trial and assigned to receive either: no intervention (control), two SMS reminders (SMS) sent 3 days, and 1 day before the scheduled MCV1 date, or SMS reminders coupled with a Kenya Shilling (KES) 150 incentive (SMS +150 KES) sent 3 days before the scheduled MCV1 date. Study staff conducted a household follow-up visit at age 12 months to ascertain vaccination status. Log-binomial regression was used to estimate the relative and absolute difference in MCV1 timely coverage (by age 10 months), the primary outcome.ResultsBetween 6 December 2016 and 31 March 2017, 179 infants were enrolled into each of the three study arms. Follow-up visits were completed between 19 April 2017 and 8 October 2017 for control (n=170), SMS (n=157) and SMS + 150 KES (n=158) children. MCV1 timely coverage was 68% among control arm infants compared with 78% in each intervention arm. This represented a non-statistically significant increase in the SMS arm (adjusted relative risk 1.13; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.30; p=0.070; adjusted risk difference 9.2%; 95% CI: −0.6 to 19.0%; p=0.066), but a statistically significant increase in the SMS + 150 KES arm (1.16; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.32; p=0.035; 10.6%; 95% CI 0.8 to 20.3%; p=0.034).ConclusionThese findings suggest that the effect of SMS reminders coupled with a small unconditional monetary incentive on MCV1 uptake is comparable to that of SMS reminders alone, limiting their utility. Further studies in the absence of unexpected supply-side constraints are needed.Trial registration numberNCT02904642

In settings with low pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) coverage, multi-age cohort mass campaigns could increase population immunity, and fractional dosing could increase affordability. We aimed to evaluate the effect of mass campaigns on nasopharyngeal pneumococcal carriage of Pneumosil (PCV10) in children aged 1–9 years in Niger. In this three-arm, open-label, cluster-randomised trial, 63 clusters of one to four villages in Niger were randomly assigned (3:3:1) using block randomisation to receive campaigns consisting of a single full dose of a 10-valent PCV (Pneumosil), a single one-fifth dose of Pneumosil, or no campaign. Independently sampled carriage surveys were done among 2268 households 6 months before and after vaccination, collecting nasopharyngeal swabs from healthy children for culture and serotyping; those with contraindication to nasopharyngeal swabbing were excluded. The primary outcome was nasopharyngeal carriage of vaccine-serotype pneumococcus. We tested whether vaccine-type carriage was reduced in full-dose versus control clusters; and whether fractional doses were non-inferior to full-doses (lower bound 95% CI more than –7·5%), using generalised estimating equations to analyse cluster summaries at baseline and follow-up, controlling for covariates to estimate risk differences and their 95% CIs. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05175014) and the Pan-African Clinical Trials Registry (PACTR20211257448484). Surveys were done between Dec 22, 2021, and March 18, 2022, and between Dec 12, 2022, and March 9, 2023. The vaccination campaign ran from June 15 to Aug 2, 2022. Participants' characteristics were consistent across surveys and groups. Pre-vaccination, vaccine-type carriage was 15·6% (149 of 955 participants) in the full-dose group, 17·9% (170 of 948) in the fractional-dose group, and 18·8% (60 of 320) in the control group. Post-vaccination, vaccine-type carriage was 4·6% (44 of 967) in the full-dose group, 8·0% (77 of 962) in the fractional-dose group, and 16·5% (53 of 321) in the control group. The primary analysis showed a risk difference of –16·2% (95% CI –28·6 to –3·0) between the full-dose group and control group (p=0·002 for superiority), and –3·8% (–6·1 to –1·6) between the full-dose group and fractional-dose group, meeting the non-inferiority criteria. No adverse events were judged to be related to vaccination. Multi-age cohort campaigns had a marked effect on vaccine-type carriage and fractional-dose campaigns met non-inferiority criteria. Such campaigns should be considered in low-coverage settings, including humanitarian emergencies, to accelerate population protection. EDCTP2 programme supported by the EU. For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

In Kilifi (Kenya), a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in 2011 in infants (aged <1 year, 3 + 0 schedule) with a catch-up campaign in children aged 1–4 years. We aimed to measure the effect of PCV10 on population immunity. In this observational study, repeated cross-sectional serosurveys were conducted in independent random samples of 500 children younger than 15 years every 2 years between 2009 and 2017. During these surveys, blood samples were collected by venesection. Concentrations of anti-capsular IgGs against vaccine serotypes (VTs) 1, 4, 5, 6B, 7F, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, and 23F, and against serotypes 6A and 19A, were assayed by ELISA. We plotted the geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) by birth year to visualise age-specific antibody profiles. In infants, IgG concentrations of 0·35 μg/mL or higher were considered protective. Of 3673 volunteers approached, 2152 submitted samples for analysis across the five surveys. Vaccine introduction resulted in an increase in the proportion of young children with protective IgG concentrations, compared with before vaccine introduction (from 0–33% of infants with VT-specific levels over the correlate of protection in 2009, to 60–94% of infants in 2011). However, among those vaccinated in infancy, GMCs of all ten VTs had waned rapidly by the age of 1, but rose again later in childhood. GMCs among children aged 10–14 years were consistently high over time (eg, the range of GMCs across survey rounds were between 0·45 μg/mL and 1·00 μg/mL for VT 23F and between 2·00 μg/mL and 3·11 μg/mL for VT 19F). PCV10 in a 3 + 0 schedule elicited protective IgG levels during infancy, when disease risk is high. The high antibody levels in children aged 10–14 years might indicate continued exposure to vaccine serotypes due to residual carriage or to memory responses to cross-reactive antigens. Despite rapid waning of IgG after vaccination, disease incidence among young children in this setting remains low, suggesting that lower thresholds of antibody, or other markers of immunity (eg, memory B cells), may be needed to assess population protection among children who have aged past infancy. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Wellcome Trust.

Background. Chest radiographs (CXRs) are frequently used to assess pneumonia cases. Variations in CXR appearances between epidemiological settings and their correlation with clinical signs are not well documented. Methods. The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health project enrolled 4232 cases of hospitalized World Health Organization (WHO)–defined severe and very severe pneumonia from 9 sites in 7 countries (Bangladesh, the Gambia, Kenya, Mali, South Africa, Thailand, and Zambia). At admission, each case underwent a standardized assessment of clinical signs and pneumonia risk factors by trained health personnel, and a CXR was taken that was interpreted using the standardized WHO methodology. CXRs were categorized as abnormal (consolidation and/or other infiltrate), normal, or uninterpretable. Results. CXRs were interpretable in 3587 (85%) cases, of which 1935 (54%) were abnormal (site range, 35%–64%). Cases with abnormal CXRs were more likely than those with normal CXRs to have hypoxemia (45% vs 26%), crackles (69% vs 62%), tachypnea (85% vs 80%), or fever (20% vs 16%) and less likely to have wheeze (30% vs 38%; all P < .05). CXR consolidation was associated with a higher case fatality ratio at 30-day follow-up (13.5%) compared to other infiltrate (4.7%) or normal (4.9%) CXRs. Conclusions. Clinically diagnosed pneumonia cases with abnormal CXRs were more likely to have signs typically associated with pneumonia. However, CXR-normal cases were common, and clinical signs considered indicative of pneumonia were present in substantial proportions of these cases. CXR-consolidation cases represent a group with an increased likelihood of death at 30 days post-discharge.

To examine whether anti-tetanus toxoid (anti-TT) immunoglobulin G (IgG) levels measured in oral fluid and adjusted for collection difficulties and specimen quality are associated with total IgG and anti-TTIgG in oral fluid and assess if statistical adjustment for them improves prediction of anti-TT IgG in serum. 267 children, ages 12 to 15 months, enrolled in the M-SIMU randomized controlled trial participated in this nested cross-sectional analysis. Venous blood and oral fluid (OF) specimens were collected, and OF collection difficulties such as crying or gagging were recorded. OF volume was documented and total IgG was measured in OF specimens and anti-TT IgG was measured in OF and serum by enzyme immunoassay (EIA). Collection difficulties, volume and sociodemographic characteristics were assessed in relation to total IgG and anti-TT IgG in OF via multivariate regression. These models were extended to evaluate the association between anti-TT IgG in OF and in serum. A prediction model was developed to adjust anti-TT IgG in OF estimates as proxy for serum. Blood in the specimen, sores in the mouth and crying were positively associated with total IgG concentration while high oral fluid volume and sucking on the swab were inversely associated. None were significant predictors of anti-TT IgG in OF after adjusting for total IgG (geometric mean [GM] ratio: 1.99; 95% confidence interval: 1.78–2.24) and vaccination history (GM ratio: 2.44; 95% CI: 1.98–3.01). When predicting anti-TT IgG levels in serum with OF, total IgG modified the effect of anti-TT IgG in OF. Anti-TT IgG in OF is a good proxy for levels in serum, after controlling for total IgG in the specimen and other variables. Post hoc adjustments for OF volume and total IgG concentration are an important consideration when conducting serosurveys with oral fluid.

We sought to estimate SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence within representative samples of the Kenyan population during the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the second year of COVID-19 vaccine use. We conducted cross-sectional serosurveys among randomly selected, age-stratified samples of Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) residents in Kilifi and Nairobi. Anti-spike (anti-S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) serostatus was measured using a validated in-house ELISA and antibody concentrations estimated with reference to the WHO International Standard for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin. HDSS residents were sampled in February-June 2022 (Kilifi HDSS N = 852; Nairobi Urban HDSS N = 851) and in August-December 2022 (N = 850 for both sites). Population-weighted coverage for ≥1 doses of COVID-19 vaccine were 11.1% (9.1-13.2%) among Kilifi HDSS residents by November 2022 and 34.2% (30.7-37.6%) among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents by December 2022. Population-weighted anti-S IgG seroprevalence among Kilifi HDSS residents increased from 69.1% (65.8-72.3%) by May 2022 to 77.4% (74.4-80.2%) by November 2022. Within the Nairobi Urban HDSS, seroprevalence by June 2022 was 88.5% (86.1-90.6%), comparable with seroprevalence by December 2022 (92.2%; 90.2-93.9%). For both surveys, seroprevalence was significantly lower among Kilifi HDSS residents than among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents, as were antibody concentrations (p < 0.001). More than 70% of Kilifi residents and 90% of Nairobi residents were seropositive for anti-S IgG by the end of 2022. There is a potential immunity gap in rural Kenya; implementation of interventions to improve COVID-19 vaccine uptake among sub-groups at increased risk of severe COVID-19 in rural settings is recommended.

We estimated the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 among household contacts of PCR-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in rural Kenya and analysed risk factors for transmission. We enrolled incident PCR-confirmed cases and their household members. At baseline, a questionnaire, a blood sample, and naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected. Household members were followed 4, 7, 10, 14, 21 and 28 days after the date of the first PCR-positive in the household; naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected at each visit and used to define secondary cases. Blood samples were collected every 1-2 weeks. Symptoms were collected in a daily symptom diary. We used binomial regression to estimate secondary attack rates and survival analysis to analyse risk factors for transmission. A total of 119 households with at least one positive household member were enrolled between October 2020 and September 2022, comprising 503 household members; 226 remained in follow-up at day 14 (45%). A total of 43 secondary cases arose within 14 days of identification of the primary case, and 81 household members remained negative. The 7-day secondary attack rate was 4% (95% CI 1%-10%), the 14-day secondary attack rate was 28% (95% CI 17%-40%). Of 38 secondary cases with data, eight reported symptoms (21%, 95% CI 8%-34%). Antibody to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein at enrolment was not associated with risk of becoming a secondary case. Households in our setting experienced a lower 7-day attack rate than a recent meta-analysis indicated as the global average (23%-43% depending on variant), and infection is mostly asymptomatic in our setting.

The Kenya Multi Site Serosurveillance (KEMIS) collaboration set out to implement an integrated, nationally representative, population-based program of serological surveillance for past infection for a number of important infectious diseases in Kenya. The project started in December 2021 and built on a portfolio of SARS-CoV-2 research conducted in 2020 and 2021. In this profile paper, we describe the background of the KEMIS collaboration, its aim and objectives, the Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites that were involved in data collection, and the key activities undertaken. We also explain how we established governance and management of the KEMIS collaboration, and reflect on opportunities, challenges, lessons learned, and future directions.