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"Kaldor, John M."
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Prevalence of scabies and impetigo worldwide: a systematic review
by
Steer, Andrew C
,
Romani, Lucia
,
Kaldor, John M
in
Bacterial infections
,
Bias
,
Cardiovascular diseases
2015
Scabies is a skin disease that, through secondary bacterial skin infection (impetigo), can lead to serious complications such as septicaemia, renal disease, and rheumatic heart disease. Yet the worldwide prevalence of scabies is uncertain. We undertook a systematic review, searching several databases and the grey literature, for population-based studies that reported on the prevalence of scabies and impetigo in a community setting. All included studies were assessed for quality. 2409 articles were identified and 48 studies were included. Data were available for all regions except North America. The prevalence of scabies ranged from 0·2% to 71·4%. All regions except for Europe and the Middle East included populations with a prevalence greater than 10%. Overall, scabies prevalence was highest in the Pacific and Latin American regions, and was substantially higher in children than in adolescents and adults. Impetigo was common, particularly in children, with the highest prevalence in Australian Aboriginal communities (49·0%). Comprehensive scabies control strategies are urgently needed, such as a community-based mass drug administration approach, along with a more systematic approach to the monitoring of disease burden.
Journal Article
How Are Health Research Priorities Set in Low and Middle Income Countries? A Systematic Review of Published Reports
by
McGregor, Skye
,
Henderson, Klara J.
,
Kaldor, John M.
in
Councils
,
Data processing
,
Developing Countries
2014
Priority setting is increasingly recognised as essential for directing finite resources to support research that maximizes public health benefits and drives health equity. Priority setting processes have been undertaken in a number of low- and middle-income country (LMIC) settings, using a variety of methods. We undertook a critical review of reports of these processes.
We searched electronic databases and online for peer reviewed and non-peer reviewed literature. We found 91 initiatives that met inclusion criteria. The majority took place at the global level (46%). For regional or national initiatives, most focused on Sub Saharan Africa (49%), followed by East Asia and Pacific (20%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (18%). A quarter of initiatives aimed to cover all areas of health research, with a further 20% covering communicable diseases. The most frequently used process was a conference or workshop to determine priorities (24%), followed by the Child Health and Nutrition Initiative (CHNRI) method (18%). The majority were initiated by an international organization or collaboration (46%). Researchers and government were the most frequently represented stakeholders. There was limited evidence of any implementation or follow-up strategies. Challenges in priority setting included engagement with stakeholders, data availability, and capacity constraints.
Health research priority setting (HRPS) has been undertaken in a variety of LMIC settings. While not consistently used, the application of established methods provides a means of identifying health research priorities in a repeatable and transparent manner. In the absence of published information on implementation or evaluation, it is not possible to assess what the impact and effectiveness of health research priority setting may have been.
Journal Article
Very Low Prevalence of Vaccine Human Papillomavirus Types Among 18- to 35-Year Old Australian Women 9 Years Following Implementation of Vaccination
2018
Prevalence of quadrivalent vaccine-targeted HPV types has declined by 92% among women aged 18–35. Strong herd protection, and the effectiveness of less than 3 doses of the vaccine, have likely contributed to the size of these reductions.
Abstract
Introduction
A quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccination program targeting females aged 12–13 years commenced in Australia in 2007, with catch-up vaccination of 14–26 year olds through 2009. We evaluated the program’s impact on HPV prevalence among women aged 18–35 in 2015.
Methods
HPV prevalence among women aged 18–24 and 25–35 was compared with prevalence in these age groups in 2005–2007. For women aged 18–24, we also compared prevalence with that in a postvaccine study conducted in 2010–2012.
Results
For the 2015 sample, Vaccination Register-confirmed 3-dose coverage was 53.3% (65.0% and 40.3% aged 18–24 and 25–35, respectively). Prevalence of vaccine HPV types decreased from 22.7% (2005–2007) and 7.3% (2010–2012), to 1.5% (2015) (P trend < .001) among women aged 18–24, and from 11.8% (2005–2007) to 1.1% (2015) (P = .001) among those aged 25–35.
Conclusions
This study, reporting the longest surveillance follow-up to date, shows prevalence of vaccine-targeted HPV types has continued to decline among young women. A substantial fall also occurred in women aged 25–35, despite lower coverage. Strong herd protection and effectiveness of less than 3 vaccine doses likely contributed to these reductions.
Journal Article
Assessment of herd immunity and cross-protection after a human papillomavirus vaccination programme in Australia: a repeat cross-sectional study
by
Phillips, Samuel
,
Liu, Bette
,
Bateson, Deborah
in
Adolescent
,
Alphapapillomavirus - immunology
,
Australia - epidemiology
2014
After the introduction of a quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme in Australia in April, 2007, we measured the prevalence of vaccine-targeted and closely related HPV types with the aim of assessing direct protection, cross-protection, and herd immunity.
In this repeat cross-sectional study, we recruited women aged 18–24 years who attended Pap screening between October, 2005, and July, 2007, in three major metropolitan areas of Australia to form our prevaccine-implementation sample. For our postvaccine-implementation sample, we recruited women aged 18–24 years who attended Pap screening in the same three metropolitan areas from August, 2010, to November, 2012. We compared the crude prevalence of HPV genotypes in cervical specimens between the prevaccine and the postvaccine implementation groups, with vaccination status validated against the National HPV Vaccination Program Register. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios using log linear regression. We estimated vaccine effectiveness both for vaccine-targeted HPV types (16, 18, 6, and 11) and non-vaccine but related HPV types (31, 33, and 45).
202 women were recruited into the prevaccine-implementation group, and 1058 were recruited into the postvaccine-implementation group. Crude prevalence of vaccine-targeted HPV genotypes was significantly lower in the postvaccine-implementation sample than in the prevaccine-implementation sample (58 [29%] of 202 vs 69 [7%] of 1058; p<0·0001). Compared with the prevaccine-implementation sample, adjusted prevalence ratios for vaccine-targeted HPV genotypes were 0·07 (95% CI 0·04–0·14; p<0·0001) in fully vaccinated women and 0·65 (0·43–0·96; p=0·03) in unvaccinated women, which suggests herd immunity. No significant declines were noted for non-vaccine-targeted HPV genotypes. However, within the postvaccine-implementation sample, adjusted vaccine effectiveness against vaccine-targeted HPV types for fully vaccinated women compared with unvaccinated women was 86% (95% CI 71–93), and was 58% (26–76) against non-vaccine-targeted but related genotypes (HPV 31, 33, and 45).
6 years after the initiation of the Australian HPV vaccination programme, we have detected a substantial fall in vaccine-targeted HPV genotypes in vaccinated women; a lower prevalence of vaccine-targeted types in unvaccinated women, suggesting herd immunity; and a possible indication of cross-protection against HPV types related to the vaccine-targeted types in vaccinated women.
Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and Cancer Council Victoria.
Journal Article
Risk of Pelvic Inflammatory Disease in Relation to Chlamydia and Gonorrhea Testing, Repeat Testing, and Positivity: A Population-Based Cohort Study
2018
There is uncertainty around whether the risks of pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) differ following Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (gonorrhea) infection. We quantified the risk of PID associated with chlamydia and gonorrhea infection and subsequent repeat infections in a whole-population cohort.
A cohort of 315123 Western Australian women, born during 1974-1995, was probabilistically linked to chlamydia and gonorrhea testing records and to hospitalizations and emergency department presentations for PID from 2002 to 2013. Time-updated survival analysis was used to investigate the association between chlamydia and gonorrhea testing, and positivity, and risk of PID.
Over 3199135 person-years, 120748 women had pathology test records for both chlamydia and gonorrhea, 10745 chlamydia only, and 653 gonorrhea only. Among those tested, 16778 (12.8%) had ≥1 positive chlamydia test, 3195 (2.6%) ≥1 positive gonorrhea test, and 1874 (1.6%) were positive for both. There were 4819 PID presentations (2222 hospitalizations, 2597 emergency presentations). Adjusting for age, Aboriginality, year of follow-up, health area, and socioeconomic status, compared to women negative for chlamydia and gonorrhea, the relative risk (adjusted incidence rate ratio) of PID was 4.29 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.66-5.03) in women who were both chlamydia and gonorrhea positive; 4.54 (95% CI, 3.87-5.33) in those only gonorrhea positive; and 1.77 (95% CI, 1.61-1.94) in those only chlamydia positive.
Gonorrhea infection conferred a substantially higher risk than chlamydia of hospitalization or emergency department presentation for PID. The emergence of gonorrhea antimicrobial resistance may have a serious impact on rates of PID and its associated reproductive health sequelae.
Journal Article
Community control strategies for scabies: A cluster randomised noninferiority trial
2021
Scabies is a neglected tropical disease hyperendemic to many low- and middle-income countries. Scabies can be successfully controlled using mass drug administration (MDA) using 2 doses of ivermectin-based treatment. If effective, a strategy of 1-dose ivermectin-based MDA would have substantial advantages for implementing MDA for scabies at large scale.
We did a cluster randomised, noninferiority, open-label, 3-group unblinded study comparing the effectiveness of control strategies on community prevalence of scabies at 12 months. All residents from 35 villages on 2 Fijian islands were eligible to participate. Villages were randomised 1:1:1 to 2-dose ivermectin-based MDA (IVM-2), 1-dose ivermectin-based MDA (IVM-1), or screen and treat with topical permethrin 5% for individuals with scabies and their household contacts (SAT). All groups also received diethylcarbamazine and albendazole for lymphatic filariasis control. For IVM-2 and IVM-1, oral ivermectin was dosed at 200 μg/kg and when contraindicated substituted with permethrin. We designated a noninferiority margin of 5%. We enrolled 3,812 participants at baseline (July to November 2017) from the 35 villages with median village size of 108 (range 18 to 298). Age and sex of participants were representative of the population with 51.6% male and median age of 25 years (interquartile range 10 to 47). We enrolled 3,898 at 12 months (July to November 2018). At baseline, scabies prevalence was similar in all groups: IVM-2: 11.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 8.5 to 16.0); IVM-1: 15.2% (95% CI 9.4 to 23.8); SAT: 13.6% (95% CI 7.9 to 22.4). At 12 months, scabies decreased substantially in all groups: IVM-2: 1.3% (95% CI 0.6 to 2.5); IVM-1: 2.7% (95% CI 1.1 to 6.5); SAT: 1.1% (95% CI 0.6 to 2.0). The risk difference in scabies prevalence at 12 months between the IVM-1 and IVM-2 groups was 1.2% (95% CI -0.2 to 2.7, p = 0.10). Limitations of the study included the method of scabies diagnosis by nonexperts, a lower baseline prevalence than anticipated, and the addition of diethylcarbamazine and albendazole to scabies treatment.
All 3 strategies substantially reduced prevalence. One-dose was noninferior to 2-dose ivermectin-based MDA, as was a screen and treat approach, for community control of scabies. Further trials comparing these approaches in varied settings are warranted to inform global scabies control strategies.
Clinitrials.gov NCT03177993 and ANZCTR N12617000738325.
Journal Article
Relation between HIV viral load and infectiousness: a model-based analysis
by
Kaldor, John M
,
Wilson, David P
,
Cooper, David A
in
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome
,
AIDS
,
Anti-Retroviral Agents - therapeutic use
2008
A consensus statement released on behalf of the Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS suggests that people receiving effective antiretroviral therapy—ie, those with undetectable plasma HIV RNA (<40 copies per mL)—are sexually non-infectious. We analysed the implications of this statement at a population level.
We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the cumulative risk of HIV transmission from effectively treated HIV-infected patients (HIV RNA <10 copies per mL) over a prolonged period. We investigated the risk of unprotected sexual transmission per act and cumulatively over many exposures, within couples initially discordant for HIV status.
Assuming that each couple had 100 sexual encounters per year, the cumulative probability of transmission to the serodiscordant partner each year is 0·0022 (uncertainty bounds 0·0008–0·0058) for female-to-male transmission, 0·0043 (0·0016–0·0115) for male-to-female transmission, and 0·043 (0·0159–0·1097) for male-to-male transmission. In a population of 10 000 serodiscordant partnerships, over 10 years the expected number of seroconversions would be 215 (80–564) for female-to-male transmission, 425 (159–1096) for male-to-female transmission, and 3524 (1477–6871) for male-to-male transmission, corresponding to an increase in incidence of four times compared with incidence under current rates of condom use.
Our analyses suggest that the risk of HIV transmission in heterosexual partnerships in the presence of effective treatment is low but non-zero and that the transmission risk in male homosexual partnerships is high over repeated exposures. If the claim of non-infectiousness in effectively treated patients was widely accepted, and condom use subsequently declined, then there is the potential for substantial increases in HIV incidence.
Australian Research Council.
Journal Article
Scabies and Impetigo Prevalence and Risk Factors in Fiji: A National Survey
2015
Scabies is recognised as a major public health problem in many countries, and is responsible for significant morbidity due to secondary bacterial infection of the skin causing impetigo, abscesses and cellulitis, that can in turn lead to serious systemic complications such as septicaemia, kidney disease and, potentially, rheumatic heart disease. Despite the apparent burden of disease in many countries, there have been few large-scale surveys of scabies prevalence or risk factors. We undertook a population-based survey in Fiji of scabies and impetigo to evaluate the magnitude of the problem and inform public health strategies.
A total of 75 communities, including villages and settlements in both urban and rural areas, were randomly selected from 305 communities across the four administrative divisions, and all residents in each location were invited to participate in skin examination by trained personnel. The study enrolled 10,887 participants. The prevalence of scabies was 23.6%, and when adjusted for age structure and geographic location based on census data, the estimated national prevalence was 18.5%. The prevalence was highest in children aged five to nine years (43.7%), followed by children aged less than five (36.5%), and there was also an indication of prevalence increasing again in older age. The prevalence of scabies was twice as high in iTaukei (indigenous) Fijians compared to Indo-Fijians. The prevalence of impetigo was 19.6%, with a peak in children aged five to nine years (34.2%). Scabies was very strongly associated with impetigo, with an estimated 93% population attributable risk.
As far as we are aware, this is the first national survey of scabies and impetigo ever conducted. We found that scabies occurs at high levels across all age groups, ethnicities, and geographical locations. Improved strategies are urgently needed to achieve control of scabies and its complications in endemic communities.
Journal Article
A framework for scabies control
by
Jacobson, Julie
,
Rainima-Qaniuci, Merelesita
,
Lardizabal Dofitas, Belen
in
Antiparasitic Agents - administration & dosage
,
Antiparasitic Agents - therapeutic use
,
Bacterial infections
2021
Scabies is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) that causes a significant health burden, particularly in disadvantaged communities and where there is overcrowding. There is emerging evidence that ivermectin-based mass drug administration (MDA) can reduce the prevalence of scabies in some settings, but evidence remains limited, and there are no formal guidelines to inform control efforts. An informal World Health Organization (WHO) consultation was organized to find agreement on strategies for global control. The consultation resulted in a framework for scabies control and recommendations for mapping of disease burden, delivery of interventions, and establishing monitoring and evaluation. Key operational research priorities were identified. This framework will allow countries to set control targets for scabies as part of national NTD strategic plans and develop control strategies using MDA for high-prevalence regions and outbreak situations. As further evidence and experience are collected and strategies are refined over time, formal guidelines can be developed. The control of scabies and the reduction of the health burden of scabies and associated conditions will be vital to achieving the targets set in WHO Roadmap for NTDs for 2021 to 2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals.
Journal Article
Timely health care seeking and first source of care for acute febrile illness in children in Hawassa, southern Ethiopia
by
Vaz Nery, Susana
,
Tadesse, Birkneh Tilahun
,
Crump, John A.
in
Acute febrile neutrophilic dermatosis
,
Biology and Life Sciences
,
Care and treatment
2022
Timely health care seeking with access to quality health care are crucial to improve child survival. We conducted a study which aimed to identify factors influencing timely health care seeking and choice of first source of health care in Ethiopia.
A total of 535 caregivers who sought health care for febrile children aged under 5 years at a tertiary hospital, and one urban and two rural health centres in Hawassa, southern Ethiopia were recruited to participate in the study from August to November 2019. Caregivers were interviewed using pretested structured questionnaires on socio-demographic and clinical factors to identify associations with health care seeking practice and first source of care, and reasons for particular practices. Delayed care seeking was defined as seeking care from a health facility after 24 hours of onset of fever.
Of 535 caregivers who participated, 271 (50.7%) had sought timely health care; 400 (74.8%) utilized a primary health care (PHC) facility as first source; and 282 (52.7%) bypassed the nearest PHC facility. Rural residents (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.85; 95% CI 1.11-3.09), and those who reported cough (AOR 1.87; 95% CI 1.20-2.93) as a reason for consultation were more likely to delay seeking health care. While caregivers were less likely delayed for children aged 24-35 months (AOR 0.50; 95% CI 0.28-0.87) compared to infants. Utilizing higher-level hospitals as the first source of care was less frequent among rural residents (AOR 0.15; 95% CI 0.06-0.39) and in those with no formal education (AOR 0.03; 95% CI 0.01-0.27). Those having a longer travel time to the provider (AOR 2.11; 95% CI 1.09-4.08) more likely utilized higher hospitals.
We identified a need to improve timely health seeking among rural residents, infants, and those presenting with respiratory symptoms. Improvements may be achieved by educating communities on the need of early care seeking, and ensuring the communities members' expectations of services at each level consistent with the services capacity.
Journal Article