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Recently, machine learning (ML) methods have been used in causal inference to estimate treatment effects in order to reduce concerns for model mis-specification. However, many ML methods require that all confounders are measured to consistently estimate treatment effects. In this paper, we propose a family of ML methods that estimate treatment effects in the presence of cluster-level unmeasured confounders, a type of unmeasured confounders that are shared within each cluster and are common in multilevel observational studies. We show through simulation studies that our proposed methods are robust from biases from unmeasured cluster-level confounders in a variety of multilevel observational studies. We also examine the effect of taking an algebra course on math achievement scores from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, a multilevel observational educational study, using our methods. The proposed methods are available in the CURobustML R package.

The study of metabolomics and disease has enabled the discovery of new risk factors, diagnostic markers, and drug targets. For neurological and psychiatric phenotypes, the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) is of particular importance. However, the CSF metabolome is difficult to study on a large scale due to the relative complexity of the procedure needed to collect the fluid. Here, we present a metabolome-wide association study (MWAS), which uses genetic and metabolomic data to impute metabolites into large samples with genome-wide association summary statistics. We conduct a metabolome-wide, genome-wide association analysis with 338 CSF metabolites, identifying 16 genotype-metabolite associations (metabolite quantitative trait loci, or mQTLs). We then build prediction models for all available CSF metabolites and test for associations with 27 neurological and psychiatric phenotypes, identifying 19 significant CSF metabolite-phenotype associations. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of MWAS to study omic data in scarce sample types.Here, the authors introduce a metabolome-wide association study that combines a genome-wide association study of cerebrospinal fluid metabolites with publicly available genome-wide association study summary statistics of neurological and psychiatric conditions to identify 19 significant CSF metabolite-phenotype associations.

There has been increasing interest in exploring heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning (ML) methods such as causal forests, Bayesian additive regression trees, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation. However, there is little work on applying these methods to estimate treatment effects in latent classes defined by well-established finite mixture/latent class models. This article proposes a hybrid method, a combination of finite mixture modeling and ML methods from causal inference to discover effect heterogeneity in latent classes. Our simulation study reveals that hybrid ML methods produced more precise and accurate estimates of treatment effects in latent classes. We also use hybrid ML methods to estimate the differential effects of private lessons across latent classes from Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study data.

Rich data from large biobanks, coupled with increasingly accessible association statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), provide great opportunities to dissect the complex relationships among human traits and diseases. We introduce BADGERS, a powerful method to perform polygenic score-based biobank-wide association scans. Compared to traditional approaches, BADGERS uses GWAS summary statistics as input and does not require multiple traits to be measured in the same cohort. We applied BADGERS to two independent datasets for late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (AD; n=61,212). Among 1738 traits in the UK biobank, we identified 48 significant associations for AD. Family history, high cholesterol, and numerous traits related to intelligence and education showed strong and independent associations with AD. Furthermore, we identified 41 significant associations for a variety of AD endophenotypes. While family history and high cholesterol were strongly associated with AD subgroups and pathologies, only intelligence and education-related traits predicted pre-clinical cognitive phenotypes. These results provide novel insights into the distinct biological processes underlying various risk factors for AD.

Mendelian randomization (MR) has become a popular approach to study the effect of a modifiable exposure on an outcome by using genetic variants as instrumental variables. A challenge in MR is that each genetic variant explains a relatively small proportion of variance in the exposure and there are many such variants, a setting known as many weak instruments. To this end, we provide a theoretical characterization of the statistical properties of two popular estimators in MR: the inverse-variance weighted (IVW) estimator and the IVW estimator with screened instruments using an independent selection dataset, under many weak instruments. We then propose a debiased IVW estimator, a simple modification of the IVW estimator, that is robust to many weak instruments and does not require screening. Additionally, we present two instrument selection methods to improve the efficiency of the new estimator when a selection dataset is available. An extension of the debiased IVW estimator to handle balanced horizontal pleiotropy is also discussed. We conclude by demonstrating our results in simulated and real datasets.

Facial attractiveness is a complex human trait of great interest in both academia and industry. Literature on sociological and phenotypic factors associated with facial attractiveness is rich, but its genetic basis is poorly understood. In this paper, we conducted a genome-wide association study to discover genetic variants associated with facial attractiveness using 4,383 samples in the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. We identified two genome-wide significant loci, highlighted a handful of candidate genes, and demonstrated enrichment for heritability in human tissues involved in reproduction and hormone synthesis. Additionally, facial attractiveness showed strong and negative genetic correlations with BMI in females and with blood lipids in males. Our analysis also suggested sex-specific selection pressure on variants associated with lower male attractiveness. These results revealed sex-specific genetic architecture of facial attractiveness and provided fundamental new insights into its genetic basis.

Metabolomics technology facilitates studying associations between small molecules and disease processes. Correlating metabolites in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) with Alzheimer's disease (AD) CSF biomarkers may elucidate additional changes that are associated with early AD pathology and enhance our knowledge of the disease. The relative abundance of untargeted metabolites was assessed in 161 individuals from the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention. A metabolome-wide association study (MWAS) was conducted between 269 CSF metabolites and protein biomarkers reflecting brain amyloidosis, tau pathology, neuronal and synaptic degeneration, and astrocyte or microglial activation and neuroinflammation. Linear mixed-effects regression analyses were performed with random intercepts for sample relatedness and repeated measurements and fixed effects for age, sex, and years of education. The metabolome-wide significance was determined by a false discovery rate threshold of 0.05. The significant metabolites were replicated in 154 independent individuals from then Wisconsin Alzheimer's Disease Research Center. Mendelian randomization was performed using genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms from a CSF metabolites genome-wide association study. Metabolome-wide association study results showed several significantly associated metabolites for all the biomarkers except Aβ42/40 and IL-6. Genetic variants associated with metabolites and Mendelian randomization analysis provided evidence for a causal association of metabolites for soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (sTREM2), amyloid β (Aβ40), α-synuclein, total tau, phosphorylated tau, and neurogranin, for example, palmitoyl sphingomyelin (d18:1/16:0) for sTREM2, and erythritol for Aβ40 and α-synuclein. This study provides evidence that CSF metabolites are associated with AD-related pathology, and many of these associations may be causal.

Instrumental variables have been widely used for estimating the causal effect between exposure and outcome. Conventional estimation methods require complete knowledge about all the instruments' validity; a valid instrument must not have a direct effect on the outcome and not be related to unmeasured confounders. Often, this is impractical as highlighted by Mendelian randomization studies where genetic markers are used as instruments and complete knowledge about instruments' validity is equivalent to complete knowledge about the involved genes' functions. In this article, we propose a method for estimation of causal effects when this complete knowledge is absent. It is shown that causal effects are identified and can be estimated as long as less than 50% of instruments are invalid, without knowing which of the instruments are invalid. We also introduce conditions for identification when the 50% threshold is violated. A fast penalized ℓ 1 estimation method, called sisVIVE, is introduced for estimating the causal effect without knowing which instruments are valid, with theoretical guarantees on its performance. The proposed method is demonstrated on simulated data and a real Mendelian randomization study concerning the effect of body mass index(BMI) on health-related quality of life (HRQL) index. An R package sisVIVE is available on CRAN. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.