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Objectives(1) Examine the associations between imprisonment history and mortality among adults with neurodevelopmental disabilities and (2) examine the associations between receipt of disability services and post-release mortality among adults with neurodevelopmental disabilities released from prison.DesignPopulation-based data-linkage cohort study using historical administrative data.SettingNew South Wales (NSW), Australia.Participants67 217 adults aged ≥18 years (59.1% male) with one or more neurodevelopmental disabilities in NSW, Australia, from July 2001 to June 2015.Outcome measuresThe main outcome measure was all-cause mortality. In the full cohort, we used Cox regression to examine the associations between release from imprisonment and all-cause mortality. In a subcohort of those released from prison, we used Poisson regression to examine the associations between receipt of disability services and post-release all-cause mortality.Results3.3% of participants (n=2214) were imprisoned and released at least once during follow-up. In all age groups<55 years, age-specific all-cause mortality rates were higher in those released from prison than in those who were not imprisoned. In Cox regression models, after adjusting for sociodemographic factors, release from prison was associated with higher all-cause mortality compared with never imprisonment (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.50 (95% CI 1.17 to 1.92)); however, this association was no longer present after further adjustment for mental illness, substance use and physical comorbidity (aHR 1.02 (95% CI 0.79 to 1.31)). Among those released from prison, being known to the prison disability service was associated with higher post-release mortality (adjusted mortality rate ratio (aMRR) 1.97 (95% CI 1.18 to 3.30)), whereas receipt of community disability services was not associated with post-release mortality (aMRR 1.09 (95% CI 0.55 to 2.15)).ConclusionsAmong adults with neurodevelopmental disabilities, mortality was increased among those released from prison compared with their peers who had not been imprisoned, although this was largely explained by health-related factors, including mental illness, substance use and physical comorbidity. Comprehensive policy and service system responses are required to meet the health and safety needs of people with neurodevelopmental disabilities who have complex needs, including criminal legal system involvement, mental illness and substance use.

BackgroundSelf-harm and suicide are common among prison inmates, but less is known about these phenomena in those with psychosis.ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to examine self-harm behaviour in New South Wales (NSW) prisons in Australia among inmates diagnosed with psychosis. This study also examined self-harm-related alerts applied by Corrective Services to assist staff with the management of the security and well-being of inmates.Design and settingA retrospective case-control data-linkage study was conducted using administrative data collections in NSW, Australia.ParticipantsThe study included all individuals diagnosed with psychosis and incarcerated between 2001 and 2020 in NSW as cases and an age and sex matched control group with no such diagnosis with a record of incarceration in the same time period.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe primary outcome measure was self-harm among the cases and controls. The secondary outcome measure was the application of alerts by Corrective Services in relation to self-harm incidents.ResultsMultivariate regression analysis was used to examine predictors of self-harm in prison. Prisoners with psychosis (n=14 900) were more likely to self-harm than controls (n=2713), with 15.0% versus 3.6% engaging in self-harm (highest odds of self-harm observed in those with schizophrenia and related psychoses, aOR=4.84, 95% CI: 3.93 to 5.98). Those of Aboriginal heritage had an increased risk of self-harm (aOR=1.58, 95% CI: 1.43 to 1.75). Factors associated with a lower risk of self-harm were male sex and older age (≥25 years) at the time of their first incarceration. 35.6% of those released from prison with a prior psychosis diagnosis had at least one alert applied during incarceration compared with 10.1% of prisoners without a diagnosis of psychosis. Overall, 35 individuals with psychosis and 1 individual from the control group died while in prison between 2001 and 2020. 17 prison suicides were recorded from the study population; all occurred in the psychosis group.ConclusionsGiven the heightened risk of self-harm in those with histories of psychosis, consideration should be given to sharing mental health information between agencies to improve the care and management of this group during incarceration. Prison alerts may be a useful tool to help staff manage inmates’ well-being if used appropriately.

Access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a global priority. However, the attrition across the continuum of care for HIV-infected children between their HIV diagnosis and ART initiation is not well known. We analyzed the time from enrollment into HIV care to ART initiation in HIV-infected children within the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) Global Cohort Consortium. We included 135,479 HIV-1-infected children, aged 0-19 years and ART-naïve at enrollment, between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2015, in IeDEA cohorts from Central Africa (3 countries; n = 4,948), East Africa (3 countries; n = 22,827), West Africa (7 countries; n = 7,372), Southern Africa (6 countries; n = 93,799), Asia-Pacific (6 countries; n = 4,045), and Latin America (7 countries; n = 2,488). Follow-up in these cohorts is typically every 3-6 months. We described time to ART initiation and missed opportunities (death or loss to follow-up [LTFU]: last clinical visit >6 months) since baseline (the date of HIV diagnosis or, if unavailable, date of enrollment). Cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) for and determinants of ART initiation were computed, with death and LTFU as competing risks. Among the 135,479 children included, 99,404 (73.4%) initiated ART, 1.9% died, 1.4% were transferred out, and 20.4% were lost to follow-up before ART initiation. The 24-month CIF for ART initiation was 68.2% (95% CI: 67.9%-68.4%); it was lower in sub-Saharan Africa-ranging from 49.8% (95% CI: 48.4%-51.2%) in Central Africa to 72.5% (95% CI: 71.5%-73.5%) in West Africa-compared to Latin America (71.0%, 95% CI: 69.1%-72.7%) and the Asia-Pacific (78.3%, 95% CI: 76.9%-79.6%). Adolescents aged 15-19 years and infants <1 year had the lowest cumulative incidence of ART initiation compared to other ages: 62.2% (95% CI: 61.6%-62.8%) and 66.4% (95% CI: 65.7%-67.0%), respectively. Overall, 49.1% were ART-eligible per local guidelines at baseline, of whom 80.6% initiated ART. The following children had lower cumulative incidence of ART initiation: female children (p < 0.01); those aged <1 year, 2-4 years, 5-9 years, and 15-19 years (versus those aged 10-14 years, p < 0.01); those who became eligible during follow-up (versus eligible at enrollment, p < 0.01); and those receiving care in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (p < 0.01). The main limitations of our study include left truncation and survivor bias, caused by deaths of children prior to enrollment, and use of enrollment date as a proxy for missing data on date of HIV diagnosis, which could have led to underestimation of the time between HIV diagnosis and ART initiation. In this study, 68% of HIV-infected children initiated ART by 24 months. However, there was a substantial risk of LTFU before ART initiation, which may also represent undocumented mortality. In 2015, many obstacles to ART initiation remained, with substantial inequities. More effective and targeted interventions to improve access are needed to reach the target of treating 90% of HIV-infected children with ART.

Despite improvements in HIV testing and earlier antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in children living with HIV through the years, a considerable proportion start treatment with advanced disease. We studied characteristics of children and adolescents living with HIV and their level of immunodeficiency at ART initiation using data from a multi-country Asian cohort. We included children and adolescents who were ART-naïve and <18 years of age at ART initiation from 2011 to 2020 at 17 HIV clinics in six countries. Incidence rates of opportunistic infections (OIs) in the first two years of triple-drug ART (≥3 antiretrovirals) was also reported. Competing risk regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with first occurrence of OI. In 2,027 children and adolescents (54% males), median age at ART initiation increased from 4.5 years in 2011–2013 to 6.7 in 2017–2020, median CD4 count doubled from 237 cells/μl to 466 cells/μl, and proportion of children who initiated ART as severely immunodeficient decreased from 70% to 45%. During follow-up, 275 (14%) children who received triple-drug ART as first treatment and had at least one clinic visit, developed at least one OI in the first two years of treatment (9.40 per 100 person-years). The incidence rate of any first OI declined from 12.52 to 7.58 per 100 person-years during 2011–2013 and 2017–2020. Lower hazard of OIs were found in those with age at first ART 2–14 years, current CD4 ≥200 cells/μl, and receiving ART between 2017 and 2020. The analysis demonstrated increasing number of children and adolescents starting ART with high CD4 count at ART start. The rate of first OI markedly decreased in children who started ART in more recent years. There remains a clear need for improvement in HIV control strategies in children, by promoting earlier diagnosis and timely treatment.

Background and aimsIndividuals with psychosis are over-represented in the criminal justice system and, as a group, are at elevated risk of re-offending. Recent studies have observed an association between increased contacts with mental health services and reduced re-offending, as well as reduced risk of re-offending in those who are ordered to mental health treatment rather than punitive sanctions. In furthering this work, this study examines the effect of disengagement from mental health treatment on probability of re-offence in offenders with psychosis over time.MethodsData linkage was conducted with judicial, health and mortality datasets from New South Wales, Australia (2001–2015). The study population included 4960 offenders with psychosis who received non-custodial sentences and engaged with community-based mental health treatment. Risk factors for leaving treatment and/or reconviction were examined using multivariate cox regression. Further, a multi-state model was used to observe the probabilities associated with individuals moving between three states: conviction, disengagement from mental health treatment and subsequent re-conviction.ResultsA threefold increase was observed in the risk of re-offending for those who disengaged from treatment compared to those who did not (aHR = 2.76, 95% CI 1.65–4.62, p < 0.001). The median time until re-offence was 195 days, with the majority (67%) being convicted within one year of leaving treatment. A higher risk of leaving treatment was found for those born outside of Australia, with substance-related psychosis, and a history of violent offence.ConclusionsThe findings argue for an emphasis on continued engagement with mental health services following release for offenders with psychosis and identify subgroups within this population for whom concentrated efforts regarding treatment retention should be targeted.

Introduction The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) projections of paediatric HIV prevalence and deaths rely on the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium for mortality estimates among children living with HIV (CHIV) receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Previous estimates, based on data through 2014, may no longer be accurate due to expanded paediatric HIV care and treatment eligibility, and the possibility of unreported deaths in CHIV considered lost to follow‐up (LTFU). We therefore estimated all‐cause mortality and its trends in CHIV (<15 years old) on ART using extended and new IeDEA data. Methods We analysed (i) IeDEA observational data from CHIV in routine care globally, and (ii) novel data from an IeDEA tracing study that determined outcomes in a sample of CHIV after being LTFU in southern Africa. We included 45,711 CHIV on ART during 2004 to 2017 at 72 programmes in Africa, Asia‐Pacific and Latin America. We used mixed effects Poisson regression to estimate mortality by age, sex, CD4 at ART start, time on ART, region and calendar year. For Africa, in an adjusted analysis that accounts for unreported deaths among those LTFU, we first modified the routine data by simulating mortality outcomes within six months after LTFU, based on a Gompertz survival model fitted to the tracing data (n = 221). Results Observed mortality rates were 1.8 (95% CI: 1.7 to 1.9) and 9.4 (6.3 to 13.4) deaths per 100 person‐years in the routine and tracing data, respectively. We found strong evidence of higher mortality at shorter ART durations, lower CD4 values, and in infancy. Averaging over covariate patterns, the adjusted mortality rate was 54% higher than the unadjusted rate. In unadjusted analyses, mortality reduced by an average 60% and 73% from 2005 to 2017, within and outside of Africa, respectively. In the adjusted analysis for Africa, this temporal reduction was 42%. Conclusions Mortality rates among CHIV have decreased substantially over time. However, when accounting for worse outcomes among those LTFU, mortality estimates increased and temporal improvements were slightly reduced, suggesting caution in interpreting analyses based only on programme data. The improved and updated IeDEA estimates on mortality among CHIV on ART support UNAIDS efforts to accurately model global HIV statistics.

Introduction Stunting is a key issue for adolescents with perinatally acquired HIV (APH) that needs to be better understood. As part of the IeDEA multiregional consortium, we described growth evolution during adolescence for APH on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Methods We included data from sub‐Saharan Africa, the Asia‐Pacific, and the Caribbean, Central and South America regions collected between 2003 and 2016. Adolescents on ART, reporting perinatally acquired infection or entering HIV care before 10 years of age, with at least one height measurement between 10 and 16 years of age, and followed in care until at least 14 years of age were included. Characteristics at ART initiation and at 10 years of age were compared by sex. Correlates of growth defined by height‐for‐age z‐scores (HAZ) between ages 10 and 19 years were studied separately for males and females, using linear mixed models. Results Overall, 8737 APH were included, with 46% from Southern Africa. Median age at ART initiation was 8.1 years (interquartile range (IQR) 6.1 to 9.6), 50% were females, and 41% were stunted (HAZ<−2 SD) at ART initiation. Males and females did not differ by age and stunting at ART initiation, CD4 count over time or retention in care. At 10 years of age, 34% of males were stunted versus 39% of females (p < 0.001). Females had better subsequent growth, resulting in a higher prevalence of stunting for males compared to females by age 15 (48% vs. 25%) and 18 years (31% vs. 15%). In linear mixed models, older age at ART initiation and low CD4 count were associated with poor growth over time (p < 0.001). Those stunted at 10 years of age or at ART initiation had the greatest growth improvement during adolescence. Conclusions Prevalence of stunting is high among APH worldwide. Substantial sex‐based differences in growth evolution during adolescence were observed in this global cohort, which were not explained by differences in age of access to HIV care, degree of immunosuppression or region. Other factors influencing growth differences in APH, such as differences in pubertal development, should be better documented, to guide further research and inform interventions to optimize growth and health outcomes among APH.

BackgroundMental health services are available for young people involved with the criminal justice system. However, they have unmet mental health needs after the expiration of criminal justice supervision.ObjectiveTo determine the incidence rate and identify predictors of psychiatric hospitalisations within 24 months after the expiration of criminal justice supervision among young people involved with the New South Wales (NSW) criminal justice system.MethodsRetrospective data from 1556 individuals aged 14–22 years who participated in four surveys of justice-involved young people in NSW were harmonised and linked to four NSW data collections. We calculated the incidence rates of psychiatric hospitalisations within 24 months postsupervision and identified predictors of these hospitalisations using a competing risks regression analysis.ResultsWithin 24 months postsupervision, 11.4% had a psychiatric hospitalisation compared with 3.5% during supervision. 20.7% of those admitted had a known history of mental illness and engaged with community-based and outpatient mental health services postsupervision. Predictors of psychiatric hospitalisations were: female sex (adjusted subdistribution HR (asHR) 1.84, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.73); previous incarceration (highest asHR for ≥4 episodes 1.67, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.78); head injury (asHR 1.63, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.21); personality disorder (asHR 3.66, 95% CI 2.06 to 6.48) and alcohol and substance use disorder (asHR 1.89, 95% CI 1.29 to 2.77).ConclusionJustice-involved youth have higher rates of psychiatric admissions after criminal justice supervision. Engagement with mental health services postsupervision is important in addressing emerging or persisting mental health needs.

Introduction The third of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90‐90‐90 targets is to achieve a 90% rate of viral suppression (HIV viral load <1000 HIV‐1 RNA copies/ml) in patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART) by 2020. However, some countries use different thresholds when reporting viral suppression, and there is thus a need for an adjustment to standardize estimates to the <1000 threshold. We aim to propose such an adjustment, to support consistent monitoring of progress towards the “third 90” target. Methods We considered three possible distributions for viral loads in ART patients: Weibull, Pareto and reverse Weibull (imposing an upper limit but no lower limit on the log scale). The models were fitted to data on viral load distributions in ART patients in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) collaboration (representing seven global regions) and the ART Cohort Collaboration (representing Europe), using separate random effects models for adults and children. The models were validated using data from the World Health Organization (WHO) HIV drug resistance report and the Brazilian national ART programme. Results Models were calibrated using 921,157 adult and 37,431 paediatric viral load measurements, over 2010–2019. The Pareto and reverse Weibull models provided the best fits to the data, but for all models, the “shape” parameters for the viral load distributions differed significantly between regions. The Weibull model performed best in the validation against the WHO drug resistance survey data, while the Pareto model produced uncertainty ranges that were too narrow, relative to the validation data. Based on these analyses, we recommend using the reverse Weibull model. For example, if a country reports an 80% rate of viral suppression at <200 copies/ml, this model estimates the proportion virally suppressed at <1000 copies/ml is 88.3% (0.800.56), with uncertainty range 85.5–90.6% (0.800.70–0.800.44). Conclusions Estimates of viral suppression can change substantially depending on the threshold used in defining viral suppression. It is, therefore, important that viral suppression rates are standardized to the same threshold for the purpose of assessing progress towards UNAIDS targets. We have proposed a simple adjustment that allows this, and this has been incorporated into UNAIDS modelling software.

Introduction: The number of HIV‐infected children and adolescents requiring second‐line antiretroviral treatment (ART) is increasing in low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMIC). However, the effectiveness of paediatric second‐line ART and potential risk factors for virologic failure are poorly characterized. We performed an aggregate analysis of second‐line ART outcomes for children and assessed the need for paediatric third‐line ART. Methods: We performed a multicentre analysis by systematically reviewing the literature to identify cohorts of children and adolescents receiving second‐line ART in LMIC, contacting the corresponding study groups and including patient‐level data on virologic and clinical outcomes. Kaplan–Meier survival estimates and Cox proportional hazard models were used to describe cumulative rates and predictors of virologic failure. Virologic failure was defined as two consecutive viral load measurements >1000 copies/ml after at least six months of second‐line treatment. Results: We included 12 cohorts representing 928 children on second‐line protease inhibitor (PI)‐based ART in 14 countries in Asia and sub‐Saharan Africa. After 24 months, 16.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 13.9–19.4) of children experienced virologic failure. Adolescents (10–18 years) had failure rates of 14.5 (95% CI 11.9–17.6) per 100 person‐years compared to 4.5 (95% CI 3.4–5.8) for younger children (3–9 years). Risk factors for virologic failure were adolescence (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3.93, p < 0.001) and short duration of first‐line ART before treatment switch (aHR 0.64 and 0.53, p = 0.008, for 24–48 months and >48 months, respectively, compared to <24 months). Conclusions: In LMIC, paediatric PI‐based second‐line ART was associated with relatively low virologic failure rates. However, adolescents showed exceptionally poor virologic outcomes in LMIC, and optimizing their HIV care requires urgent attention. In addition, 16% of children and adolescents failed PI‐based treatment and will require integrase inhibitors to construct salvage regimens. These drugs are currently not available in LMIC.