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30 result(s) for "Kariuki, Rebecca"
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Integrating stakeholders’ perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania
Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959–1999) and present (2000–2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders’ perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders’ perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8–20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5–5% and 10–19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs.
Convergence research as transdisciplinary knowledge coproduction within cases of effective collaborative governance of social-ecological systems
Successful collaborative governance (CG) of social-ecological systems (SES) involves multiple stakeholders convening iteratively over the long term to reach a commonly held vision. This often involves building knowledge for social learning processes induced to come to collective decisions about managing complex systems in flux. Because of the complexity of any SES in the Anthropocene, this coproduced knowledge is frequently transdisciplinary, using a convergence of applied and scientific knowledge from a variety of disciplines and stakeholders outside academia. We find evidence that these cases of effective SES CG involve both knowledge coproduction and convergence research. We evaluated seven case studies of CG across four continents using criteria (principles and methods) developed to facilitate and describe convergence research on SES and found them to be largely present. We also assess these CG cases using indicators of knowledge coproduction, and show that they all involved transdisciplinary knowledge coproduction, which can provide an informative lens for deepening our shared understanding of convergence and its application to complex adaptive systems. All the cases selected for this paper are examples of CG of SES in which research was conducted as part of a collaborative effort to improve the social-ecological conditions in a particular place, and several incorporate various forms of knowledge and ways of knowing. We suggest that these cases demonstrate both convergence research and knowledge coproduction because of the overlap and similarity of these concepts, providing a brief comparison and contrasting of these approaches to addressing sustainability problems collaboratively.
Assessing Interactions between Agriculture, Livestock Grazing and Wildlife Conservation Land Uses: A Historical Example from East Africa
Despite mobile livestock grazing being widely recognized as one of the most viable and sustainable land uses for semi-arid savanna, which can deliver clear wildlife conservation benefits, the levels of pastoral sedentarization and transitions to agricultural livelihoods continue to rise in many pastoral communities across the world. Using questionnaire interviews with community elders, our study assessed changing trends in livestock grazing, wildlife conservation, and sedentarization levels from the 1960s to the present day across three savannas in southern Kenya. Our study identified the drivers of land uses and land subdivision and the implications of land use change on savanna ecology. Over the last half century, there has been a 30% decline in livestock grazing land in southern Kenya due to the expansion of land for agriculture and wildlife conservation. Despite the decline, livestock grazing remains the preferred land use in subdivided and privatized lands. Pastoralist land used for wildlife conservation was perceived to be higher (30%) in southwestern Kenya compared to southeastern Kenya (16%), despite their geographical proximity. These historical insights provide useful lessons for maintaining space for wildlife, diversifying livelihoods, and increasing the resilience of pastoralists in the process of transitioning from traditional subsistence to market economies and the threats of social and ecological dislocation.
‘Kesho’ Scenario Development for Supporting Water-Energy Food Security under Future Conditions in Zanzibar
Social-ecological interactions mediate water–energy–food security in small developing islands, but community-scale insights are underrepresented in nexus research. These interactions are dynamic in their response to environmental and anthropogenic pressures and need to be understood to inform sustainable land use planning into the future. This study centered on bringing together diverse stakeholders to explore water–energy–food futures using the “Kesho” (meaning “tomorrow” in Kiswahili) scenario tool for two of the largest islands that comprise the Zanzibar Archipelago. The methodology comprised four core stages: (1) exploration of how past drivers of change impacted water–energy–food security; (2) modeling of a Business as Usual Scenario for land cover change; (3) narrative development to describe alternative futures for 2030 based on themes developed at the community scale; and (4) predictions about how narratives would shape land cover and its implications for the nexus. These results were used to model alternate land cover scenarios in TerrSet IDRISI (v. 18.31) and produce visual representations of expected change. Findings demonstrated that deforestation, saltwater incursion, and a reduction in permanent waterbodies were projected by 2030 in a Business as Usual Scenario. Three alternative scenario narratives were developed, these included Adaptation, Ecosystem Management, and Settlement Planning. The results demonstrate that the effectiveness of actions under the scenario options differ between the islands, indicating the importance of understanding the suitability of national policies across considered scales. Synergies across the alternative scenario narratives also emerged, including integrated approaches for managing environmental change, community participation in decision making, effective protection of forests, cultural sensitivity to settlement planning, and poverty alleviation. These synergies could be used to plan strategic action towards effectively strengthening water–energy–food security in Zanzibar.
Near and far future conservation, land use, and land cover interactions around the wider Etosha landscape, north-central Namibia
Recent conservation efforts have resulted in the growth of protected and conserved areas as a land use across African drylands. However, land use and land cover change (LULCC) associated with habitat fragmentation continues to be a substantive driver of biodiversity loss in multiple-use landscapes. This study highlights the significance of perspectives from diverse stakeholders in understanding LULCC in a southern African dryland where the coverage of protected and conserved areas is increasing. The study models future land cover change scenarios and assesses their alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Agenda 2030 and the African Union (AU) Agenda 2063. Three scenarios representing business-as-usual conditions, conservation and livestock production, and agricultural and livestock production are outlined. Under business-as-usual conditions, protected areas are conserved and built-up areas expand. However, land degradation occurs where people are concentrated around key resource areas. In a scenario focused on conservation and livestock production, conservation initiatives are strengthened, but expansion of shrublands occurs in livestock-dominated areas that are not well managed. In a scenario focused on agricultural and livestock production, farms grow but their expansion within protected areas causes human-wildlife conflicts. Desirable near and far futures — characterised by environmental integrity, human-wildlife coexistence, and an equitable, thriving wildlife-based economy — are seen as attainable through coordinated land-based activities and the implementation of community-based conservation legislation. Outputs from this study demonstrate the value of a stakeholder-led approach in tackling conservation challenges and in planning for a sustainable future for an arid region heavily reliant on land-based livelihoods.
Ecology for a social revolution: Re-defining the role of ecological and environmental science professionals and their responsibilities towards society
The sixth mass extinction and the ongoing biodiversity and climate crises demand urgent action from ecologists and environmental scientists (EESs). Despite their critical role in addressing these challenges, EESs face unclear professional responsibilities towards society, local communities and ecosystems. The 2024 ANdiNA workshop was held in Conguillío National Park in Chile, within Wallmapu the ancestral land of the Mapuche people. It gathered global EESs to explore the roles, obligations and accountability of professionals in this field. The discussions focused on the evolving responsibilities of EESs amidst the environmental crises, as well as the need for clearer frameworks to guide their actions. Key questions included the scope of EESs' professional activities, how their obligations should adapt during times of crisis and whether they should be held accountable for scientific mistakes that lead to negative societal outcomes. The workshop explored the potential for creating a codified framework, such as an oath or manifesto, to clarify EESs' professional responsibilities. Participants highlighted the importance of integrating financial, intellectual, ethical and institutional dimensions in defining these roles, particularly in how EESs engage with local communities and society. Emerging themes included the need for a shared framework to align EESs' actions, exemplified by the Conguillío Statement , which encourages collaboration, inclusivity and ethical engagement with communities, especially Indigenous ones. The workshop also emphasised the importance of solution-orientated, transformative research and advocacy, calling for a shift in how EESs approach their roles as agents of change. By critically reflecting on their responsibilities, the workshop provided a foundation for re-imagining the role of EESs in the face of global environmental crises, urging systemic, collaborative approaches to safeguarding both nature and humanity.
Listening Deeply to Indigenous People: A Collaborative Perspective and Reflection Between a Mapuche Machi and Ecologists
Indigenous Peoples are key knowledge holders and essential partners to confront global environmental crises, especially biodiversity loss. Many calls have been made to better integrate Indigenous Traditional Ecological Knowledge and Western ecological sciences. However, partnerships between these communities are complex due to power imbalances, distrust, different objectives, and injustices towards Indigenous Peoples. This raises the question of what meaningful engagement is, and for whom. These issues were discussed at a scientific workshop in Conguillío National Park, Chile. This initial encounter between ecologists and Mapuche elders, including a Machi (a Mapuche spiritual authority), has led to ongoing dialog and engagement. Responding to calls to listen deeply towards engagement with Indigenous Peoples in Western ecological sciences, we—the Machi and scientists—present our joint perspectives and reflections upon the process, drawing from Indigenous Knowledge and Western ecological sciences. Interweaving both lived experiences and scientific evidence, we document the environmental issues confronting the local Mapuche community caused by industrial developments in the territory. Our joint account highlights conflicts caused by non‐native tree plantations and the plans to construct a hydroelectric plant in the Truful–Truful watershed, which was opposed strongly by the local communities. Together with the industrial forestry plantations that cause land‐use change, the construction of this hydroelectric plant endangers biodiversity, including species of conservation significance, medicinal plants, and ultimately, the Mapuche way of life. Reflecting upon our collaboration and the process facilitated by Two‐Eyed Seeing, we illustrate that Indigenous voices and scientific evidence, together, can deepen our understanding of social‐ecological change in the territory and reveal opportunities for building trust and relationships. We highlight the importance of time, preparation for engagement, and advocating for change in knowledge partnerships in the ecological sciences. Learning from our collaboration, we call upon our communities to continue listening, engaging, and advocating for Indigenous representation in ecology. Two‐eyed seeing offers a way to see with both Indigenous Traditional Ecological Knowledge and Western ecological sciences. In this collaborative perspective piece between ecologists and a Mapuche spiritual authority (a Machi), we interweave lived experiences and ecological evidence to present the alarming social‐ecological devastation and conflict in Mapuche territory in Chile. We offer learnings from our collaboration and call upon our communities to respond to the call for deep listening and meaningful engagement.
Pathways from research to sustainable development: Insights from ten research projects in sustainability and resilience
Drawing on collective experience from ten collaborative research projects focused on the Global South, we identify three major challenges that impede the translation of research on sustainability and resilience into better-informed choices by individuals and policy-makers that in turn can support transformation to a sustainable future. The three challenges comprise: (i) converting knowledge produced during research projects into successful knowledge application; (ii) scaling up knowledge in time when research projects are short-term and potential impacts are long-term; and (iii) scaling up knowledge across space, from local research sites to larger-scale or even global impact. Some potential pathways for funding agencies to overcome these challenges include providing targeted prolonged funding for dissemination and outreach, and facilitating collaboration and coordination across different sites, research teams, and partner organizations. By systematically documenting these challenges, we hope to pave the way for further innovations in the research cycle.
Rangeland Livelihood Strategies under Varying Climate Regimes: Model Insights from Southern Kenya
Rangelands throughout sub-Saharan Africa are currently undergoing two major pressures: climate change (through altered rainfall and seasonality patterns) and habitat fragmentation (brought by land use change driven by land demand for agriculture and conservation). Here we explore these dimensions, investigating the impact of land use change decisions, by pastoralists in southern Kenya rangelands, on human well-being and animal densities using an agent-based model. The constructed agent-based model uses input biomass data simulated by the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) dynamic vegetation model and parameterized with data from literature. Scenarios of land use change under different rainfall years, land tenure types and levels of wildlife conservation support were simulated. Reflecting reality, our results show livestock grazing as the predominant land use that changes with precipitation and land tenure leading to varying livelihood strategies. For example, agriculture is the most common livelihood in wet years and conservation levels increase with increasing support of wildlife conservation initiatives. Our model demonstrates the complex and multiple interactions between pastoralists, land management and the environment. We highlight the importance of understanding the conditions driving the sustainability of semi-arid rangelands and the communities they support, and the role of external actors, such as wildlife conservation investors, in East Africa.