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Classical mathematical models of tumor growth have shaped our understanding of cancer and have broad practical implications for treatment scheduling and dosage. However, even the simplest textbook models have been barely validated in real world-data of human patients. In this study, we fitted a range of differential equation models to tumor volume measurements of patients undergoing chemotherapy or cancer immunotherapy for solid tumors. We used a large dataset of 1472 patients with three or more measurements per target lesion, of which 652 patients had six or more data points. We show that the early treatment response shows only moderate correlation with the final treatment response, demonstrating the need for nuanced models. We then perform a head-to-head comparison of six classical models which are widely used in the field: the Exponential, Logistic, Classic Bertalanffy, General Bertalanffy, Classic Gompertz and General Gompertz model. Several models provide a good fit to tumor volume measurements, with the Gompertz model providing the best balance between goodness of fit and number of parameters. Similarly, when fitting to early treatment data, the general Bertalanffy and Gompertz models yield the lowest mean absolute error to forecasted data, indicating that these models could potentially be effective at predicting treatment outcome. In summary, we provide a quantitative benchmark for classical textbook models and state-of-the art models of human tumor growth. We publicly release an anonymized version of our original data, providing the first benchmark set of human tumor growth data for evaluation of mathematical models.

Artificial intelligence (AI) can extract complex information from visual data. Histopathology images of gastrointestinal (GI) and liver cancer contain a very high amount of information which human observers can only partially make sense of. Complementing human observers, AI allows an in-depth analysis of digitised histological slides of GI and liver cancer and offers a wide range of clinically relevant applications. First, AI can automatically detect tumour tissue, easing the exponentially increasing workload on pathologists. In addition, and possibly exceeding pathologist’s capacities, AI can capture prognostically relevant tissue features and thus predict clinical outcome across GI and liver cancer types. Finally, AI has demonstrated its capacity to infer molecular and genetic alterations of cancer tissues from histological digital slides. These are likely only the first of many AI applications that will have important clinical implications. Thus, pathologists and clinicians alike should be aware of the principles of AI-based pathology and its ability to solve clinically relevant problems, along with its limitations and biases.

Histopathology and genomic profiling are cornerstones of precision oncology and are routinely obtained for patients with cancer. Traditionally, histopathology slides are manually reviewed by highly trained pathologists. Genomic data, on the other hand, is evaluated by engineered computational pipelines. In both applications, the advent of modern artificial intelligence methods, specifically machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL), have opened up a fundamentally new way of extracting actionable insights from raw data, which could augment and potentially replace some aspects of traditional evaluation workflows. In this review, we summarize current and emerging applications of DL in histopathology and genomics, including basic diagnostic as well as advanced prognostic tasks. Based on a growing body of evidence, we suggest that DL could be the groundwork for a new kind of workflow in oncology and cancer research. However, we also point out that DL models can have biases and other flaws that users in healthcare and research need to know about, and we propose ways to address them.

Introduction The Laurén classification is widely used for Gastric Cancer (GC) histology subtyping. However, this classification is prone to interobserver variability and its prognostic value remains controversial. Deep Learning (DL)-based assessment of hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) stained slides is a potentially useful tool to provide an additional layer of clinically relevant information, but has not been systematically assessed in GC. Objective We aimed to train, test and externally validate a deep learning-based classifier for GC histology subtyping using routine H&E stained tissue sections from gastric adenocarcinomas and to assess its potential prognostic utility. Methods We trained a binary classifier on intestinal and diffuse type GC whole slide images for a subset of the TCGA cohort ( N  = 166) using attention-based multiple instance learning. The ground truth of 166 GC was obtained by two expert pathologists. We deployed the model on two external GC patient cohorts, one from Europe ( N  = 322) and one from Japan ( N  = 243). We assessed classification performance using the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUROC) and prognostic value (overall, cancer specific and disease free survival) of the DL-based classifier with uni- and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models and Kaplan–Meier curves with log-rank test statistics. Results Internal validation using the TCGA GC cohort using five-fold cross-validation achieved a mean AUROC of 0.93 ± 0.07. External validation showed that the DL-based classifier can better stratify GC patients' 5-year survival compared to pathologist-based Laurén classification for all survival endpoints, despite frequently divergent model-pathologist classifications. Univariate overall survival Hazard Ratios (HRs) of pathologist-based Laurén classification (diffuse type versus intestinal type) were 1.14 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.66–1.44, p -value = 0.51) and 1.23 (95% CI 0.96–1.43, p -value = 0.09) in the Japanese and European cohorts, respectively. DL-based histology classification resulted in HR of 1.46 (95% CI 1.18–1.65, p -value < 0.005) and 1.41 (95% CI 1.20–1.57, p -value < 0.005), in the Japanese and European cohorts, respectively. In diffuse type GC (as defined by the pathologist), classifying patients using the DL diffuse and intestinal classifications provided a superior survival stratification, and demonstrated statistically significant survival stratification when combined with pathologist classification for both the Asian (overall survival log-rank test p -value < 0.005, HR 1.43 (95% CI 1.05–1.66, p -value = 0.03) and European cohorts (overall survival log-rank test p -value < 0.005, HR 1.56 (95% CI 1.16–1.76, p -value < 0.005)). Conclusion Our study shows that gastric adenocarcinoma subtyping using pathologist’s Laurén classification as ground truth can be performed using current state of the art DL techniques. Patient survival stratification seems to be better by DL-based histology typing compared with expert pathologist histology typing. DL-based GC histology typing has potential as an aid in subtyping. Further investigations are warranted to fully understand the underlying biological mechanisms for the improved survival stratification despite apparent imperfect classification by the DL algorithm.

Clinical workflows in oncology rely on predictive and prognostic molecular biomarkers. However, the growing number of these complex biomarkers tends to increase the cost and time for decision-making in routine daily oncology practice; furthermore, biomarkers often require tumour tissue on top of routine diagnostic material. Nevertheless, routinely available tumour tissue contains an abundance of clinically relevant information that is currently not fully exploited. Advances in deep learning (DL), an artificial intelligence (AI) technology, have enabled the extraction of previously hidden information directly from routine histology images of cancer, providing potentially clinically useful information. Here, we outline emerging concepts of how DL can extract biomarkers directly from histology images and summarise studies of basic and advanced image analysis for cancer histology. Basic image analysis tasks include detection, grading and subtyping of tumour tissue in histology images; they are aimed at automating pathology workflows and consequently do not immediately translate into clinical decisions. Exceeding such basic approaches, DL has also been used for advanced image analysis tasks, which have the potential of directly affecting clinical decision-making processes. These advanced approaches include inference of molecular features, prediction of survival and end-to-end prediction of therapy response. Predictions made by such DL systems could simplify and enrich clinical decision-making, but require rigorous external validation in clinical settings.

Artificial intelligence (AI) methods have multiplied our capabilities to extract quantitative information from digital histopathology images. AI is expected to reduce workload for human experts, improve the objectivity and consistency of pathology reports, and have a clinical impact by extracting hidden information from routinely available data. Here, we describe how AI can be used to predict cancer outcome, treatment response, genetic alterations and gene expression from digitized histopathology slides. We summarize the underlying technologies and emerging approaches, noting limitations, including the need for data sharing and standards. Finally, we discuss the broader implications of AI in cancer research and oncology.Schmatko et al. review the application of artificial intelligence to digitized histopathology for cancer diagnosis, prognosis and classification and discuss its potential utility in the clinic and broader implications for cancer research and care.

Background Digitized histopathological tissue slides and genomics profiling data are available for many patients with solid tumors. In the last 5 years, Deep Learning (DL) has been broadly used to extract clinically actionable information and biological knowledge from pathology slides and genomic data in cancer. In addition, a number of recent studies have introduced multimodal DL models designed to simultaneously process both images from pathology slides and genomic data as inputs. By comparing patterns from one data modality with those in another, multimodal DL models are capable of achieving higher performance compared to their unimodal counterparts. However, the application of these methodologies across various tumor entities and clinical scenarios lacks consistency. Methods Here, we present a systematic survey of the academic literature from 2010 to November 2023, aiming to quantify the application of DL for pathology, genomics, and the combined use of both data types. After filtering 3048 publications, our search identified 534 relevant articles which then were evaluated by basic (diagnosis, grading, subtyping) and advanced (mutation, drug response and survival prediction) application types, publication year and addressed cancer tissue. Results Our analysis reveals a predominant application of DL in pathology compared to genomics. However, there is a notable surge in DL incorporation within both domains. Furthermore, while DL applied to pathology primarily targets the identification of histology-specific patterns in individual tissues, DL in genomics is more commonly used in a pan-cancer context. Multimodal DL, on the contrary, remains a niche topic, evidenced by a limited number of publications, primarily focusing on prognosis predictions. Conclusion In summary, our quantitative analysis indicates that DL not only has a well-established role in histopathology but is also being successfully integrated into both genomic and multimodal applications. In addition, there is considerable potential in multimodal DL for harnessing further advanced tasks, such as predicting drug response. Nevertheless, this review also underlines the need for further research to bridge the existing gaps in these fields.

A knowledge gap persists between machine learning (ML) developers (e.g., data scientists) and practitioners (e.g., clinicians), hampering the full utilization of ML for clinical data analysis. We investigated the potential of the ChatGPT Advanced Data Analysis (ADA), an extension of GPT-4, to bridge this gap and perform ML analyses efficiently. Real-world clinical datasets and study details from large trials across various medical specialties were presented to ChatGPT ADA without specific guidance. ChatGPT ADA autonomously developed state-of-the-art ML models based on the original study’s training data to predict clinical outcomes such as cancer development, cancer progression, disease complications, or biomarkers such as pathogenic gene sequences. Following the re-implementation and optimization of the published models, the head-to-head comparison of the ChatGPT ADA-crafted ML models and their respective manually crafted counterparts revealed no significant differences in traditional performance metrics ( p  ≥ 0.072). Strikingly, the ChatGPT ADA-crafted ML models often outperformed their counterparts. In conclusion, ChatGPT ADA offers a promising avenue to democratize ML in medicine by simplifying complex data analyses, yet should enhance, not replace, specialized training and resources, to promote broader applications in medical research and practice. A knowledge gap persists between machine learning developers and clinicians. Here, the authors show that the Advanced Data Analysis extension of ChatGPT could bridge this gap and simplify complex data analyses, making them more accessible to clinicians.

Although generative adversarial networks (GANs) can produce large datasets, their limited diversity and fidelity have been recently addressed by denoising diffusion probabilistic models, which have demonstrated superiority in natural image synthesis. In this study, we introduce Medfusion, a conditional latent DDPM designed for medical image generation, and evaluate its performance against GANs, which currently represent the state-of-the-art. Medfusion was trained and compared with StyleGAN-3 using fundoscopy images from the AIROGS dataset, radiographs from the CheXpert dataset, and histopathology images from the CRCDX dataset. Based on previous studies, Progressively Growing GAN (ProGAN) and Conditional GAN (cGAN) were used as additional baselines on the CheXpert and CRCDX datasets, respectively. Medfusion exceeded GANs in terms of diversity (recall), achieving better scores of 0.40 compared to 0.19 in the AIROGS dataset, 0.41 compared to 0.02 (cGAN) and 0.24 (StyleGAN-3) in the CRMDX dataset, and 0.32 compared to 0.17 (ProGAN) and 0.08 (StyleGAN-3) in the CheXpert dataset. Furthermore, Medfusion exhibited equal or higher fidelity (precision) across all three datasets. Our study shows that Medfusion constitutes a promising alternative to GAN-based models for generating high-quality medical images, leading to improved diversity and less artifacts in the generated images.

For virtually every patient with colorectal cancer (CRC), hematoxylin-eosin (HE)-stained tissue slides are available. These images contain quantitative information, which is not routinely used to objectively extract prognostic biomarkers. In the present study, we investigated whether deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) can extract prognosticators directly from these widely available images. We hand-delineated single-tissue regions in 86 CRC tissue slides, yielding more than 100,000 HE image patches, and used these to train a CNN by transfer learning, reaching a nine-class accuracy of >94% in an independent data set of 7,180 images from 25 CRC patients. With this tool, we performed automated tissue decomposition of representative multitissue HE images from 862 HE slides in 500 stage I-IV CRC patients in the The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) cohort, a large international multicenter collection of CRC tissue. Based on the output neuron activations in the CNN, we calculated a \"deep stroma score,\" which was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival (OS) in a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model (hazard ratio [HR] with 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.99 [1.27-3.12], p = 0.0028), while in the same cohort, manual quantification of stromal areas and a gene expression signature of cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) were only prognostic in specific tumor stages. We validated these findings in an independent cohort of 409 stage I-IV CRC patients from the \"Darmkrebs: Chancen der Verhütung durch Screening\" (DACHS) study who were recruited between 2003 and 2007 in multiple institutions in Germany. Again, the score was an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR 1.63 [1.14-2.33], p = 0.008), CRC-specific OS (HR 2.29 [1.5-3.48], p = 0.0004), and relapse-free survival (RFS; HR 1.92 [1.34-2.76], p = 0.0004). A prospective validation is required before this biomarker can be implemented in clinical workflows. In our retrospective study, we show that a CNN can assess the human tumor microenvironment and predict prognosis directly from histopathological images.