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Since 2013, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted an annual influenza season forecasting challenge. The 2015–2016 challenge consisted of weekly probabilistic forecasts of multiple targets, including fourteen models submitted by eleven teams. Forecast skill was evaluated using a modified logarithmic score. We averaged submitted forecasts into a mean ensemble model and compared them against predictions based on historical trends. Forecast skill was highest for seasonal peak intensity and short-term forecasts, while forecast skill for timing of season onset and peak week was generally low. Higher forecast skill was associated with team participation in previous influenza forecasting challenges and utilization of ensemble forecasting techniques. The mean ensemble consistently performed well and outperformed historical trend predictions. CDC and contributing teams will continue to advance influenza forecasting and work to improve the accuracy and reliability of forecasts to facilitate increased incorporation into public health response efforts.

President Biden is expected to slam election deniers into asurprise speech tonight; as the election closes in, candidates arerolling out their closing messages. The plan to rope Supreme CourtClarence Thomas into the 2020 election; why a Trump lawyer calledThomas the only chance to delay the process. A top Democrat isdemanding answers from the U.S. Capitol Police after last week'sviolent assault on Paul Pelosi, the husband of House Speaker NancyPelosi. A judge has just formally sentenced the gunman who killed 17people at Marjory Stoneman Douglas in Parkland, Florida. GUESTS: Keisha Lance Bottoms, Sarah Longwell

Transcription errors occur in all living cells; however, it is unknown how these errors affect cellular health. To answer this question, we monitor yeast cells that are genetically engineered to display error-prone transcription. We discover that these cells suffer from a profound loss in proteostasis, which sensitizes them to the expression of genes that are associated with protein-folding diseases in humans; thus, transcription errors represent a new molecular mechanism by which cells can acquire disease phenotypes. We further find that the error rate of transcription increases as cells age, suggesting that transcription errors affect proteostasis particularly in aging cells. Accordingly, transcription errors accelerate the aggregation of a peptide that is implicated in Alzheimer's disease, and shorten the lifespan of cells. These experiments reveal a previously unappreciated role for transcriptional fidelity in cellular health and aging. Transcription, like DNA replication, is an error-prone process. Vermulst et al. show that transcription errors increase with age in yeast, and find that prematurely increasing the error rate overwhelms the proteotoxic stress response, allowing aggregation-prone proteins to escape protein quality control.

Core Ideas Soil organic C was two times greater with a no‐tillage rye cover crop system compared with conventional tillage (winter fallow) 17 yr after imposing treatments. A greater rate of C gain was observed with a no‐tillage mixed species cover crop system than with a rye cover crop in a 3‐yr period. Cotton lint yield and gross margins were less with a no‐tillage rye cover crop system than conventional tillage. Differences of lint yield and gross margins did not exist between the conventional tillage and no‐tillage mixed species cover crop treatments. Conservation tillage coupled with winter cover crops may reduce wind erosion in the North America Great Plains. Although farmers recognize the benefits of conservation practices, their decision to use cover crops is often based on the farm’s operating budget. In semiarid ecoregions dependent on irrigation for cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) production and limited groundwater resources, cover crops using stored soil moisture is a major concern. The objective of this research was to quantify the long‐term impacts of conservation tillage and cover crop use on C storage, cotton lint yield, and economic returns in monoculture cotton production. Conservation tillage and rye cover were implemented in 1998 and a mixed species cover of rye (Secale cereale L.), hairy vetch (Vicia villosa Roth), radish (Raphanus sativus L.), and winter pea (Pisum sativum L.) was seeded in 2014 into half of the rye cover crop plots. Soil organic C in the top 15‐cm soil depth was increased by combining conservation tillage with winter cover crops. Cotton lint yield was less with no‐tillage and the rye cover when compared with conventional tillage in 2 of 3 yr. As a result, cotton lint revenue and gross margins of conservation tillage were on average less than conventional tillage.

Many human populations are dependent on marine ecosystems for a range of benefits, but we understand little about where and to what degree people rely on these ecosystem services. We created a new conceptual model to map the degree of human dependence on marine ecosystems based on the magnitude of the benefit, susceptibility of people to a loss of that benefit, and the availability of alternatives. We focused on mapping nutritional, economic, and coastal protection dependence, but our model is repeatable, scalable, applicable to other ecosystems, and designed to incorporate additional services and data. Here we show that dependence was highest for Pacific and Indian Ocean island nations and several West African countries. More than 775 million people live in areas with relatively high dependence scores. By identifying where and how people are dependent on marine ecosystems, our framework can be used to design more effective large‐scale management and policy interventions.

BackgroundThe provision of neonatal care is variable and commonly lacks adequate evidence base; strategic development of methodologically robust clinical trials is needed to improve outcomes and maximise research resources. Historically, neonatal research topics have been selected by researchers; prioritisation processes involving wider stakeholder groups have generally identified research themes rather than specific questions amenable to interventional trials.ObjectiveTo involve stakeholders including parents, healthcare professionals and researchers to identify and prioritise research questions suitable for answering in neonatal interventional trials in the UK.DesignResearch questions were submitted by stakeholders in population, intervention, comparison, outcome format through an online platform. Questions were reviewed by a representative steering group; duplicates and previously answered questions were removed. Eligible questions were entered into a three-round online Delphi survey for prioritisation by all stakeholder groups.ParticipantsOne hundred and eight respondents submitted research questions for consideration; 144 participants completed round one of the Delphi survey, 106 completed all three rounds.ResultsTwo hundred and sixty-five research questions were submitted and after steering group review, 186 entered into the Delphi survey. The top five ranked research questions related to breast milk fortification, intact cord resuscitation, timing of surgical intervention in necrotising enterocolitis, therapeutic hypothermia for mild hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy and non-invasive respiratory support.ConclusionsWe have identified and prioritised research questions suitable for practice-changing interventional trials in neonatal medicine in the UK at the present time. Trials targeting these uncertainties have potential to reduce research waste and improve neonatal care.