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"Kennedy, Edward"
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Nonparametric Causal Effects Based on Incremental Propensity Score Interventions
Most work in causal inference considers deterministic interventions that set each unit's treatment to some fixed value. However, under positivity violations these interventions can lead to nonidentification, inefficiency, and effects with little practical relevance. Further, corresponding effects in longitudinal studies are highly sensitive to the curse of dimensionality, resulting in widespread use of unrealistic parametric models. We propose a novel solution to these problems: incremental interventions that shift propensity score values rather than set treatments to fixed values. Incremental interventions have several crucial advantages. First, they avoid positivity assumptions entirely. Second, they require no parametric assumptions and yet still admit a simple characterization of longitudinal effects, independent of the number of timepoints. For example, they allow longitudinal effects to be visualized with a single curve instead of lists of coefficients. After characterizing incremental interventions and giving identifying conditions for corresponding effects, we also develop general efficiency theory, propose efficient nonparametric estimators that can attain fast convergence rates even when incorporating flexible machine learning, and propose a bootstrap-based confidence band and simultaneous test of no treatment effect. Finally, we explore finite-sample performance via simulation, and apply the methods to study time-varying sociological effects of incarceration on entry into marriage. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
Journal Article
إدوارد سعيد : مقدمة نقدية
يركز الكتاب على إصرار سعيد على العلاقة بين الأدب والسياسة والثقافة، تقدم كينيدي لمحة عامة وتقييم لأهم مسارات العمل الرئيسية لسعيد، مستخلصة الروابط والتناقضات بين كل مجال. يبدأ الكتاب مع دراسة الاستشراق، والذي هو واحد من النصوص المؤسسة للدراسات ما بعد الاستعمارية وتتناول الكتاب بالتفصيل وتسبر كلاً من نقاط القوة والضعف فيه، وتربطه بتتمته كتاب الثقافة والإمبريالية. ثم تنظر في عمل سعيد حول الشعب الفلسطيني، بتأكيده على الحاجة إلى السرد الفلسطيني للتصدي للروايات المؤيدة لإسرائيل في الشرق الأوسط، وانتقاداته اللازعة للولايات المتحدة وإسرائيل وحتى الحكومات العربية. ثم ينتهي الكتاب بدراسة أهمية سعيد في مجال الدراسات ما بعد الاستعمارية، ولا سيما تحليل الخطاب الاستعماري والنظرية ما بعد الاستعمارية، وأهميته كمفكر عام.
Book
SHARP INSTRUMENTS FOR CLASSIFYING COMPLIERS AND GENERALIZING CAUSAL EFFECTS
It is well known that, without restricting treatment effect heterogeneity, instrumental variable (IV) methods only identify “local” effects among compliers, that is, those subjects who take treatment only when encouraged by the IV. Local effects are controversial since they seem to only apply to an unidentified subgroup; this has led many to denounce these effects as having little policy relevance. However, we show that such pessimism is not always warranted: it can be possible to accurately predict who compliers are, and obtain tight bounds on more generalizable effects in identifiable subgroups. We propose methods for doing so and study estimation error and asymptotic properties, showing that these tasks can sometimes be accomplished even with very weak IVs. We go on to introduce a new measure of IV quality called “sharpness,” which reflects the variation in compliance explained by covariates, and captures how well one can identify compliers and obtain tight bounds on identifiable subgroup effects. We develop an estimator of sharpness and show that it is asymptotically efficient under weak conditions. Finally, we explore finite-sample properties via simulation, and apply the methods to study canvassing effects on voter turnout. We propose that sharpness should be presented alongside strength to assess IV quality.
Journal Article
Edward M. Kennedy : an oral history
\"For Kennedy devotees, as well as readers unfamiliar with the \"lion of the Senate,\" this book presents the compelling story of Edward Kennedy's unexpected rise to become one of the most consequential legislators in American history and a passionate defender of progressive values, achieving legislative compromises across the partisan divide. What distinguishes Edward Kennedy: An Oral History is the nuanced detail that emerges from the senator's never-before published, complete descriptions of his life and work, placed alongside the observations of his friends, family, and associates. The senator's twenty released interviews reveal, in his own voice, the stories of Kennedy triumph and tragedy from the Oval Office to the waters of Chappaquiddick. Spanning the presidencies of JFK to Barack Obama, Edward Kennedy was an iconic player in American political life, the youngest sibling of America's most powerful dynasty; he candidly addresses this role: his legislative accomplishments and failures, his unsuccessful run for the White House, his impact on the Supreme Court, his observations on Washington gridlock, and his personal faults. The interviews and introductions to them create an unsurpassed and illuminating volume. Gathered as part of the massive Edward Kennedy Oral History Project, conducted by the University of Virginia's Miller Center, the senator's interviews allow readers to see how oral history can evolve over a three-year period, drawing out additional details as the interviewee becomes increasingly comfortable with the process and the interviewer. Yet, given the Kennedys' well-known penchant for image creation, what the senator doesn't say or how he says what he chooses to include, is often more revealing than a simple declarative statement.\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Non-parametric methods for doubly robust estimation of continuous treatment effects
Continuous treatments (e.g. doses) arise often in practice, but many available causal effect estimators are limited by either requiring parametric models for the effect curve, or by not allowing doubly robust covariate adjustment. We develop a novel kernel smoothing approach that requires only mild smoothness assumptions on the effect curve and still allows for misspecification of either the treatment density or outcome regression. We derive asymptotic properties and give a procedure for data-driven bandwidth selection. The methods are illustrated via simulation and in a study of the effect of nurse staffing on hospital readmissions penalties.
Journal Article
Algeria is beautiful like America
\"Olivia had always heard stories about Algeria from her maternal grandmother, a Black Foot (a 'Pied-Noir,' the French term for Christian and Jewish settlers of French Algeria who emigrated to France after the Algerian War of Independence). After her grandmother's death, Olivia found some of her grandmother's journals and letters describing her homeland. Now, ten years later, she resolves to travel to Algeria and experience the country for herself. Olivia's quest to understand her origins will bring her to face questions about heritage, history, shame, friendship, memory, nostalgia, fantasy, the nature of exile, and our unending quest to understand who we are and where we come from\"--Amazon.com.
Book
Rate of false conviction of criminal defendants who are sentenced to death
The rate of erroneous conviction of innocent criminal defendants is often described as not merely unknown but unknowable. There is no systematic method to determine the accuracy of a criminal conviction; if there were, these errors would not occur in the first place. As a result, very few false convictions are ever discovered, and those that are discovered are not representative of the group as a whole. In the United States, however, a high proportion of false convictions that do come to light and produce exonerations are concentrated among the tiny minority of cases in which defendants are sentenced to death. This makes it possible to use data on death row exonerations to estimate the overall rate of false conviction among death sentences. The high rate of exoneration among death-sentenced defendants appears to be driven by the threat of execution, but most death-sentenced defendants are removed from death row and resentenced to life imprisonment, after which the likelihood of exoneration drops sharply. We use survival analysis to model this effect, and estimate that if all death-sentenced defendants remained under sentence of death indefinitely, at least 4.1% would be exonerated. We conclude that this is a conservative estimate of the proportion of false conviction among death sentences in the United States.
Journal Article
Robust causal inference with continuous instruments using the local instrumental variable curve
Instrumental variables are commonly used to estimate effects of a treatment afflicted by unmeasured confounding, and in practice instruments are often continuous (e.g. measures of distance, or treatment preference). However, available methods for continuous instruments have important limitations: they either require restrictive parametric assumptions for identification, or else rely on modelling both the outcome and the treatment process well (and require modelling effect modification by all adjustment covariates). In this work we develop the first semiparametric doubly robust estimators of the local instrumental variable effect curve, i.e. the effect among those who would take treatment for instrument values above some threshold and not below. In addition to being robust to misspecification of either the instrument or treatment or outcome processes, our approach also incorporates information about the instrument mechanism and allows for flexible data-adaptive estimation of effect modification. We discuss asymptotic properties under weak conditions and use the methods to study infant mortality effects of neonatal intensive care units with high versus low technical capacity, using travel time as an instrument.
Journal Article