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Cloud cover is one of the largest uncertainties in model predictions of the future Arctic climate. Previous studies have shown that cloud amounts in global climate models and atmospheric reanalyses vary widely and may have large biases. However, many climate studies are based on anomalies rather than absolute values, for which biases are less important. This study examines the performance of five atmospheric reanalysis products—ERA-Interim, MERRA, MERRA-2, NCEP R1, and NCEP R2—in depicting monthly mean Arctic cloud amount anomalies against Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations from 2000 to 2014 and against Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) observations from 2006 to 2014. All five reanalysis products exhibit biases in the mean cloud amount, especially in winter. The Gerrity skill score (GSS) and correlation analysis are used to quantify their performance in terms of interannual variations. Results show that ERA-Interim, MERRA, MERRA-2, and NCEP R2 perform similarly, with annual mean GSSs of 0.36/0.22, 0.31/0.24, 0.32/0.23, and 0.32/0.23 and annual mean correlation coefficients of 0.50/0.51, 0.43/0.54, 0.44/0.53, and 0.50/0.52 against MODIS/CALIPSO, indicating that the reanalysis datasets do exhibit some capability for depicting the monthly mean cloud amount anomalies. There are no significant differences in the overall performance of reanalysis products. They all perform best in July, August, and September and worst in November, December, and January. All reanalysis datasets have better performance over land than over ocean. This study identifies the magnitudes of errors in Arctic mean cloud amounts and anomalies and provides a useful tool for evaluating future improvements in the cloud schemes of reanalysis products.

Arctic sea ice characteristics have been changing rapidly and significantly in the last few decades. Using a long-term time series of sea ice products from satellite observations—the extended AVHRR Polar Pathfinder (APP-x)—trends in sea ice concentration, ice extent, ice thickness, and ice volume in the Arctic from 1982 to 2020 are investigated. Results show that the Arctic has become less ice-covered in all seasons, especially in summer and autumn. Arctic sea ice thickness has been decreasing at a rate of −3.24 cm per year, resulting in an approximate 52% reduction in thickness from 2.35 m in 1982 to 1.13 m in 2020. Arctic sea ice volume has been decreasing at a rate of −467.7 km3 per year, resulting in an approximate 63% reduction in volume, from 27,590.4 km3 in 1982 to 10,305.5 km3 in 2020. These trends are further examined from a new perspective, where the Arctic Ocean is classified into open water, perennial, and seasonal sea ice-covered areas based on sea ice persistence. The loss of the perennial sea ice-covered area is a major factor in the total sea ice loss in all seasons. If the current rates of sea ice changes in extent, concentration, and thickness continue, the Arctic is expected to have ice-free summers by the early 2060s.

In this study, six Arctic sea ice thickness products are compared: the AVHRR Polar Pathfinder-extended (APP-x), ICESat, CryoSat-2, SMOS, NASA IceBridge aircraft flights, and the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS). The satellite products are based on three different retrieval methods: an energy budget approach, measurements of ice freeboard, and the relationship between passive microwave brightness temperatures and thin ice thickness. Inter-comparisons are done for the periods of overlap from 2003 to 2013. Results show that ICESat sea ice is thicker than APP-x and PIOMAS overall, particularly along the north coast of Greenland and Canadian Archipelago. The relative differences of APP-x and PIOMAS with ICESat are −0.48 m and −0.31 m, respectively. APP-x underestimates thickness relative to CryoSat-2, with a mean difference of −0.19 m. The biases for APP-x, PIOMAS, and CryoSat-2 relative to IceBridge thicknesses are 0.18 m, 0.18 m, and 0.29 m. The mean difference between SMOS and CryoSat-2 for 0~1 m thick ice is 0.13 m in March and −0.24 m in October. All satellite-retrieved ice thickness products and PIOMAS overestimate the thickness of thin ice (1 m or less) compared to IceBridge for which SMOS has the smallest bias (0.26 m). The spatial correlation between the datasets indicates that APP-x and PIOMAS are the most similar, followed by APP-x and CryoSat-2.

Despite accounting for a small fraction of the surface area in the Arctic, long and narrow sea ice fractures, known as “leads”, play a critical role in the energy flux between the ocean and atmosphere. As the volume of sea ice in the Arctic has declined over the past few decades, it is increasingly important to monitor the corresponding changes in sea ice leads. A novel approach has been developed using artificial intelligence (AI) to detect sea ice leads using satellite thermal infrared window data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). In this new approach, a particular type of convolutional neural network, a U-Net, replaces a series of conventional image processing tests from our legacy algorithm. Results show the new approach has a high detection accuracy with F1 Scores on the order of 0.7. Compared to the legacy algorithm, the new algorithm shows improvement, with more true positives, fewer false positives, fewer false negatives, and better agreement between satellite instruments.

Sea ice leads, or fractures account for a small proportion of the Arctic Ocean surface area, but play a critical role in the energy and moisture exchanges between the ocean and atmosphere. As the sea ice area and volume in the Arctic has declined over the past few decades, changes in sea ice leads have not been studied as extensively. A recently developed approach uses artificial intelligence (AI) and satellite thermal infrared window data to build a twenty-year archive of sea ice lead detects with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and later, an archive from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The results are now available and show significant improvement over previously published methods. The AI method results have higher detection rates and a high level detection agreement between MODIS and VIIRS. Analysis over the winter season from 2002–2003 through to the 2021–2022 archive reveals lead detections have a small decreasing trend in lead area that can be attributed to increasing cloud cover in the Arctic. This work reveals that leads are becoming increasingly difficult to detect rather than less likely to occur. Although the trend is small and on the same order of magnitude as the uncertainty, leads are likely increasing at a rate of 3700 km2 per year with a range of uncertainty of 3500 km2 after the impact of cloud cover changes are removed.

Thermodynamic and dynamic sea ice thickness processes are affected by differing mechanisms in a changing climate. Independent observational datasets of each are essential for model validation and accurate projections of future sea ice conditions. Here, we present a monthly, Arctic-basin-wide, and 25 km resolution Eulerian estimation of thermodynamic and dynamic effects on wintertime sea ice thickness from 2010–2021. Estimates of thermodynamic growth rate are determined by coupling passive microwave-retrieved snow–ice interface temperatures to a simple sea ice thermodynamic model, total growth is calculated from a weekly Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) European Space Agency (ESA) CryoSat-2 and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) combination product (CS2SMOS), and dynamic effects are calculated as their difference. The dynamic effects are further separated into advection and residual effects using a sea ice motion dataset. Our results show new detail in these fields and, when summed to a basin-wide or regional scale, are in line with previous studies. Across the Arctic, dynamic effects are negative and about one-fourth the magnitude of thermodynamic growth. Thermodynamic growth varies from less than 0.1 m per month in the central Arctic to greater than 0.3 m per month in the seasonal ice zones. High positive dynamic effects of greater than 0.1 m per month, twice that of thermodynamic growth or more in some areas, are found north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, where the Transpolar Drift and Beaufort Gyre deposit ice. Strong negative dynamic effects of less than −0.2 m per month are found where the Transpolar Drift originates, nearly equal to and opposite the thermodynamic effects in these regions. Monthly results compare well with a recent study of the dynamic and thermodynamic effects on sea ice thickness along the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) drift track during the winter of 2019–2020. Couplets of deformation and advection effects with opposite signs are common across the Arctic, with positive advection effects and negative deformation effects found in the Beaufort Sea and negative advection effects and positive deformation effects found in most other regions. The seasonal cycle shows residual deformation effects and overall dynamic effects increasing as the winter season progresses.

Sea ice leads (fractures) play a critical role in the exchange of mass and energy between the ocean and atmosphere in the polar regions. The thinning of Arctic sea ice over the last few decades will likely result in changes in lead distributions, so monitoring their characteristics is increasingly important. Here we present a methodology to detect and characterize sea ice leads using satellite imager thermal infrared window channels. A thermal contrast method is first used to identify possible sea ice lead pixels, then a number of geometric and image analysis tests are applied to build a subset of positively identified leads. Finally, characteristics such as width, length and orientation are derived. This methodology is applied to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations for the months of January through April over the period of 2003 to 2018. The algorithm results are compared to other satellite estimates of lead distribution. Lead coverage maps and statistics over the Arctic illustrate spatial and temporal lead patterns.

Sea ice is a key component of the Arctic climate system, and has impacts on global climate. Ice concentration, thickness, and volume are among the most important Arctic sea ice parameters. This study presents a new record of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume from 1984 to 2018 based on an existing satellite-derived ice age product. The relationship between ice age and ice thickness is first established for every month based on collocated ice age and ice thickness from submarine sonar data (1984–2000) and ICESat (2003–2008) and an empirical ice growth model. Based on this relationship, ice thickness is derived for the entire time period from the weekly ice age product, and the Arctic monthly sea ice volume is then calculated. The ice-age-based thickness and volume show good agreement in terms of bias and root-mean-square error with submarine, ICESat, and CryoSat-2 ice thickness, as well as ICESat and CryoSat-2 ice volume, in February–March and October–November. More detailed comparisons with independent data from Envisat for 2003 to 2010 and CryoSat-2 from CPOM, AWI, and NASA GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center) for 2011 to 2018 show low bias in ice-age-based thickness. The ratios of the ice volume uncertainties to the mean range from 21 % to 29 %. Analysis of the derived data shows that the ice-age-based sea ice volume exhibits a decreasing trend of −411 km3 yr−1 from 1984 to 2018, stronger than the trends from other datasets. Of the factors affecting the sea ice volume trends, changes in sea ice thickness contribute more than changes in sea ice area, with a contribution of at least 80 % from changes in sea ice thickness from November to May and nearly 50 % in August and September, while less than 30 % is from changes in sea ice area in all months.

The Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) onboard NOAA-7 through NOAA-19 satellites has been the primary data source for two Climate Data Records (CDRs) that were developed specifically for Arctic and Antarctic studies: the AVHRR Polar Pathfinder (APP) and Extended AVHRR Polar Pathfinder (APP-x). With the decommissioning of these satellites and the loss of the AVHRR, a method for extending the CDRs with the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on NOAA’s recent satellites is presented. The goal is to produce long-term, continuous, consistent, and traceable CDRs for polar climate research. As a result, APP and APP-x can now be continued as the VIIRS Polar Pathfinder (VPP) and Extended VIIRS Polar Pathfinder (VPP-x) CDRs. To ensure consistency, a VIIRS Global Area Coverage (VGAC) dataset that is comparable to AVHRR GAC data was used to develop an analogous VIIRS Polar Pathfinder suite. Five VIIRS bands (I1, I2, M12, M15, and M16) were selected to correspond to AVHRR Channels 1, 2, 3b, 4, and 5, respectively. A multivariate regression approach was used to intercalibrate these VIIRS bands to AVHRR channels based on data from overlapping AVHRR and VIIRS observations from 2013 to 2018. The data from 2012 and 2019 were reserved for independent validation. For the Arctic region north of 60°N at 14:00/04:00 Local Solar Time (LST) during 2012–2019, mean biases between APP and VPP composites at a spatial resolution of 5 km are −0.85%/3.03% (Channel 1), −1.22%/3.65% (Channel 2), −0.18 K/0.81 K (Channel 3b), 0.01 K/0.24 K (Channel 4), and 0.07 K/0.19 K (Channel 5). Mean biases between APP-x and VPP-x at a spatial resolution of 25 km for the same region and period are −1.52%/−1.48% for surface broadband albedo, 0.69 K/0.61 K for surface skin temperature, and −0.011 m/−0.017 m for sea ice thickness. Similar results were observed for the Antarctic region south of 60°S at 14:00/02:00 LST, indicating strong agreement between APP and VPP, and between APP-x and VPP-x.

Information on ice is important for shipping, weather forecasting, and climate monitoring. Historically, ice cover has been detected and ice concentration has been measured using relatively low-resolution space-based passive microwave data. This study presents an algorithm to detect ice and estimate ice concentration in clear-sky areas over the ocean and inland lakes and rivers using high-resolution data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi National Polar Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) and on future Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) satellites, providing spatial detail that cannot be obtained with passive microwave data. A threshold method is employed with visible and infrared observations to identify ice, then a tie-point algorithm is used to determine the representative reflectance/temperature of pure ice, estimate the ice concentration, and refine the ice cover mask. The VIIRS ice concentration is validated using observations from Landsat 8. Results show that VIIRS has an overall bias of −0.3% compared to Landsat 8 ice concentration, with a precision (uncertainty) of 9.5%. Biases and precision values for different ice concentration subranges from 0% to 100% can be larger.