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Meat consumption is rising annually as human populations grow and affluence increases. Godfray et al. review this trend, which has major negative consequences for land and water use and environmental change. Although meat is a concentrated source of nutrients for low-income families, it also enhances the risks of chronic ill health, such as from colorectal cancer and cardiovascular disease. Changing meat consumption habits is a challenge that requires identifying the complex social factors associated with meat eating and developing policies for effective interventions. Science , this issue p. eaam5324 Both the global average per capita consumption of meat and the total amount of meat consumed are rising, driven by increasing average individual incomes and by population growth. The consumption of different types of meat and meat products has substantial effects on people’s health, and livestock production can have major negative effects on the environment. Here, we explore the evidence base for these assertions and the options policy-makers have should they wish to intervene to affect population meat consumption. We highlight where more research is required and the great importance of integrating insights from the natural and social sciences.

The concept of plant-based diets has become popular due to the purported benefits for both human health and environmental impact. Although ‘plant-based’ is sometimes used to indicate omnivorous diets with a relatively small component of animal foods, here we take it to mean either vegetarian (plant-based plus dairy products and/or eggs) or vegan (100% plant-based). Important characteristics of plant-based diets which would be expected to be beneficial for long-term health are low intakes of saturated fat and high intakes of dietary fibre, whereas potentially deleterious characteristics are the risk of low intakes of some micronutrients such as vitamin B 12 , vitamin D, calcium and iodine, particularly in vegans. Vegetarians and vegans typically have lower BMI, serum LDL cholesterol and blood pressure than comparable regular meat-eaters, as well as lower bone mineral density. Vegetarians in the EPIC-Oxford study have a relatively low risk of IHD, diabetes, diverticular disease, kidney stones, cataracts and possibly some cancers, but a relatively high risk of stroke (principally haemorrhagic stroke) and bone fractures, in comparison with meat-eaters. Vegans in EPIC-Oxford have a lower risk of diabetes, diverticular disease and cataracts and a higher risk of fractures, but there are insufficient data for other conditions to draw conclusions. Overall, the health of people following plant-based diets appears to be generally good, with advantages but also some risks, and the extent to which the risks may be mitigated by optimal food choices, fortification and supplementation is not yet known.

Timothy J Key and colleagues describe the evidence linking diet and nutrition to cancer risk, concluding that obesity and alcohol are the most important factors

Vegetarians, who do not eat any meat, poultry or fish, constitute a significant minority of the world's population. Lacto-ovo-vegetarians consume dairy products and/or eggs, whereas vegans do not eat any foods derived wholly or partly from animals. Concerns over the health, environmental and economic consequences of a diet rich in meat and other animal products have focussed attention on those who exclude some or all of these foods from their diet. There has been extensive research into the nutritional adequacy of vegetarian diets, but less is known about the long-term health of vegetarians and vegans. We summarise the main findings from large cross-sectional and prospective cohort studies in western countries with a high proportion of vegetarian participants. Vegetarians have a lower prevalence of overweight and obesity and a lower risk of IHD compared with non-vegetarians from a similar background, whereas the data are equivocal for stroke. For cancer, there is some evidence that the risk for all cancer sites combined is slightly lower in vegetarians than in non-vegetarians, but findings for individual cancer sites are inconclusive. Vegetarians have also been found to have lower risks for diabetes, diverticular disease and eye cataract. Overall mortality is similar for vegetarians and comparable non-vegetarians, but vegetarian groups compare favourably with the general population. The long-term health of vegetarians appears to be generally good, and for some diseases and medical conditions it may be better than that of comparable omnivores. Much more research is needed, particularly on the long-term health of vegans.

Background Recent studies have reported that the associations between dietary carbohydrates and cardiovascular disease (CVD) may depend on the quality, rather than the quantity, of carbohydrates consumed. This study aimed to assess the associations between types and sources of dietary carbohydrates and CVD incidence. A secondary aim was to examine the associations of carbohydrate intakes with triglycerides within lipoprotein subclasses. Methods A total of 110,497 UK Biobank participants with ≥ two (maximum five) 24-h dietary assessments who were free from CVD and diabetes at baseline were included. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regressions were used to estimate risks of incident total CVD (4188 cases), ischaemic heart disease (IHD; 3138) and stroke (1124) by carbohydrate intakes over a median follow-up time of 9.4 years, and the effect of modelled dietary substitutions. The associations of carbohydrate intakes with plasma triglycerides within lipoprotein subclasses as measured by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy were examined in 26,095 participants with baseline NMR spectroscopy measurements. Results Total carbohydrate intake was not associated with CVD outcomes. Free sugar intake was positively associated with total CVD (HR; 95% CI per 5% of energy, 1.07;1.03–1.10), IHD (1.06;1.02–1.10), and stroke (1.10;1.04–1.17). Fibre intake was inversely associated with total CVD (HR; 95% CI per 5 g/d, 0.96;0.93–0.99). Modelled isoenergetic substitution of 5% of energy from refined grain starch with wholegrain starch was inversely associated with total CVD (0.94;0.91–0.98) and IHD (0.94;0.90–0.98), and substitution of free sugars with non-free sugars was inversely associated with total CVD (0.95;0.92–0.98) and stroke (0.91;0.86–0.97). Free sugar intake was positively associated with triglycerides within all lipoproteins. Conclusions Higher free sugar intake was associated with higher CVD incidence and higher triglyceride concentrations within all lipoproteins. Higher fibre intake and replacement of refined grain starch and free sugars with wholegrain starch and non-free sugars, respectively, may be protective for incident CVD.

AbstractObjectiveTo examine the associations of vegetarianism with risks of ischaemic heart disease and stroke.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingThe EPIC-Oxford study, a cohort in the United Kingdom with a large proportion of non-meat eaters, recruited across the country between 1993 and 2001.Participants48 188 participants with no history of ischaemic heart disease, stroke, or angina (or cardiovascular disease) were classified into three distinct diet groups: meat eaters (participants who consumed meat, regardless of whether they consumed fish, dairy, or eggs; n=24 428), fish eaters (consumed fish but no meat; n=7506), and vegetarians including vegans (n=16 254), based on dietary information collected at baseline, and subsequently around 2010 (n=28 364).Main outcome measuresIncident cases of ischaemic heart disease and stroke (including ischaemic and haemorrhagic types) identified through record linkage until 2016.ResultsOver 18.1 years of follow-up, 2820 cases of ischaemic heart disease and 1072 cases of total stroke (519 ischaemic stroke and 300 haemorrhagic stroke) were recorded. After adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle confounders, fish eaters and vegetarians had 13% (hazard ratio 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.77 to 0.99) and 22% (0.78, 0.70 to 0.87) lower rates of ischaemic heart disease than meat eaters, respectively (P<0.001 for heterogeneity). This difference was equivalent to 10 fewer cases of ischaemic heart disease (95% confidence interval 6.7 to 13.1 fewer) in vegetarians than in meat eaters per 1000 population over 10 years. The associations for ischaemic heart disease were partly attenuated after adjustment for self reported high blood cholesterol, high blood pressure, diabetes, and body mass index (hazard ratio 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 1.00 in vegetarians with all adjustments). By contrast, vegetarians had 20% higher rates of total stroke (hazard ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.40) than meat eaters, equivalent to three more cases of total stroke (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 5.4 more) per 1000 population over 10 years, mostly due to a higher rate of haemorrhagic stroke. The associations for stroke did not attenuate after further adjustment of disease risk factors.ConclusionsIn this prospective cohort in the UK, fish eaters and vegetarians had lower rates of ischaemic heart disease than meat eaters, although vegetarians had higher rates of haemorrhagic and total stroke.

Although metabolic profiles have been associated with chronic disease risk, lack of temporal stability of metabolite levels could limit their use in epidemiological investigations. The present study aims to evaluate the reliability over a two-year period of 158 metabolites and compare reliability over time in fasting and non-fasting serum samples. Metabolites were measured with the AbsolueIDQp180 kit (Biocrates, Innsbruck, Austria) by mass spectrometry and included acylcarnitines, amino acids, biogenic amines, hexoses, phosphatidylcholines and sphingomyelins. Measurements were performed on repeat serum samples collected two years apart in 27 fasting men from Turin, Italy, and 39 non-fasting women from Utrecht, The Netherlands, all participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Reproducibility was assessed by estimating intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) in multivariable mixed models. In fasting samples, a median ICC of 0.70 was observed. ICC values were <0.50 for 48% of amino acids, 27% of acylcarnitines, 18% of lysophosphatidylcholines and 4% of phosphatidylcholines. In non-fasting samples, the median ICC was 0.54. ICC values were <0.50 for 71% of acylcarnitines, 48% of amino acids, 44% of biogenic amines, 36% of sphingomyelins, 34% of phosphatidylcholines and 33% of lysophosphatidylcholines. Overall, reproducibility was lower in non-fasting as compared to fasting samples, with a statistically significant difference for 19-36% of acylcarnitines, phosphatidylcholines and sphingomyelins. A single measurement per individual may be sufficient for the study of 73% and 52% of the metabolites showing ICCs >0.50 in fasting and non-fasting samples, respectively. ICCs were higher in fasting samples that are preferable to non-fasting.

Purpose The Oxford WebQ is a web-based 24-h dietary assessment method which has been used in UK Biobank and other large prospective studies. The food composition table used to calculate nutrient intakes has recently been replaced with the UK Nutrient Databank, which has food composition data closer in time to when participants completed the questionnaire, and new dietary variables were incorporated. Here we describe the updated version of the Oxford WebQ questionnaire nutrient calculation, and compare nutrient intakes with the previous version used. Methods 207,144 UK Biobank participants completed ≥ 1 Oxford WebQs, and means and standard deviations of nutrient intakes were averaged for all completed 24-h dietary assessments. Spearman correlations and weighted kappa statistics were used to compare the re-classification and agreement of nutrient intakes between the two versions. Results 35 new nutrients were incorporated in the updated version. Compared to the previous version, most nutrients were very similar in the updated version except for a few nutrients which showed a difference of > 10%: lower with the new version for trans-fat (− 20%), and vitamin C (− 15%), but higher for retinol (+ 42%), vitamin D (+ 26%) and vitamin E (+ 20%). Most participants were in the same (> 60%) or adjacent (> 90%) quintile of intake for the two versions. Except for trans-fat ( r  = 0.58, κ  = 0.42), very high correlations were found between the nutrients calculated using the two versions ( r  > 0.79 and κ  > 0.60). Conclusion Small absolute differences in nutrient intakes were observed between the two versions, and the ranking of individuals was minimally affected, except for trans-fat.

Background Some endogenous hormones have been associated with breast cancer risk, but the nature of these relationships is not fully understood. Methods UK Biobank was used. Hormone concentrations were measured in serum collected in 2006–2010, and in a repeat subsample ( N  ~ 5000) in 2012–13. Incident cancers were identified through data linkage. Cox regression models were used, and hazard ratios (HRs) corrected for regression dilution bias. Results Among 30,565 pre-menopausal and 133,294 post-menopausal women, 527 and 2,997, respectively, were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer during a median follow-up of 7.1 years. Cancer risk was positively associated with testosterone in post-menopausal women (HR per 0.5 nmol/L increment: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.23) but not in pre-menopausal women ( p heterogeneity  = 0.03), and with IGF-1 (insulin-like growth factor-1) (HR per 5 nmol/L increment: 1.18; 1.02, 1.35 (pre-menopausal) and 1.07; 1.01, 1.12 (post-menopausal); p heterogeneity  = 0.2), and inversely associated with SHBG (sex hormone-binding globulin) (HR per 30 nmol/L increment: 0.96; 0.79, 1.15 (pre-menopausal) and 0.89; 0.84, 0.94 (post-menopausal); p heterogeneity  = 0.4). Oestradiol, assessed only in pre-menopausal women, was not associated with risk, but there were study limitations for this hormone. Conclusions This study confirms associations of testosterone, IGF-1 and SHBG with breast cancer risk, with heterogeneity by menopausal status for testosterone.