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Meat consumption is rising annually as human populations grow and affluence increases. Godfray et al. review this trend, which has major negative consequences for land and water use and environmental change. Although meat is a concentrated source of nutrients for low-income families, it also enhances the risks of chronic ill health, such as from colorectal cancer and cardiovascular disease. Changing meat consumption habits is a challenge that requires identifying the complex social factors associated with meat eating and developing policies for effective interventions. Science , this issue p. eaam5324 Both the global average per capita consumption of meat and the total amount of meat consumed are rising, driven by increasing average individual incomes and by population growth. The consumption of different types of meat and meat products has substantial effects on people’s health, and livestock production can have major negative effects on the environment. Here, we explore the evidence base for these assertions and the options policy-makers have should they wish to intervene to affect population meat consumption. We highlight where more research is required and the great importance of integrating insights from the natural and social sciences.

The concept of plant-based diets has become popular due to the purported benefits for both human health and environmental impact. Although ‘plant-based’ is sometimes used to indicate omnivorous diets with a relatively small component of animal foods, here we take it to mean either vegetarian (plant-based plus dairy products and/or eggs) or vegan (100% plant-based). Important characteristics of plant-based diets which would be expected to be beneficial for long-term health are low intakes of saturated fat and high intakes of dietary fibre, whereas potentially deleterious characteristics are the risk of low intakes of some micronutrients such as vitamin B 12 , vitamin D, calcium and iodine, particularly in vegans. Vegetarians and vegans typically have lower BMI, serum LDL cholesterol and blood pressure than comparable regular meat-eaters, as well as lower bone mineral density. Vegetarians in the EPIC-Oxford study have a relatively low risk of IHD, diabetes, diverticular disease, kidney stones, cataracts and possibly some cancers, but a relatively high risk of stroke (principally haemorrhagic stroke) and bone fractures, in comparison with meat-eaters. Vegans in EPIC-Oxford have a lower risk of diabetes, diverticular disease and cataracts and a higher risk of fractures, but there are insufficient data for other conditions to draw conclusions. Overall, the health of people following plant-based diets appears to be generally good, with advantages but also some risks, and the extent to which the risks may be mitigated by optimal food choices, fortification and supplementation is not yet known.

Background Recent studies have reported that the associations between dietary carbohydrates and cardiovascular disease (CVD) may depend on the quality, rather than the quantity, of carbohydrates consumed. This study aimed to assess the associations between types and sources of dietary carbohydrates and CVD incidence. A secondary aim was to examine the associations of carbohydrate intakes with triglycerides within lipoprotein subclasses. Methods A total of 110,497 UK Biobank participants with ≥ two (maximum five) 24-h dietary assessments who were free from CVD and diabetes at baseline were included. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regressions were used to estimate risks of incident total CVD (4188 cases), ischaemic heart disease (IHD; 3138) and stroke (1124) by carbohydrate intakes over a median follow-up time of 9.4 years, and the effect of modelled dietary substitutions. The associations of carbohydrate intakes with plasma triglycerides within lipoprotein subclasses as measured by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy were examined in 26,095 participants with baseline NMR spectroscopy measurements. Results Total carbohydrate intake was not associated with CVD outcomes. Free sugar intake was positively associated with total CVD (HR; 95% CI per 5% of energy, 1.07;1.03–1.10), IHD (1.06;1.02–1.10), and stroke (1.10;1.04–1.17). Fibre intake was inversely associated with total CVD (HR; 95% CI per 5 g/d, 0.96;0.93–0.99). Modelled isoenergetic substitution of 5% of energy from refined grain starch with wholegrain starch was inversely associated with total CVD (0.94;0.91–0.98) and IHD (0.94;0.90–0.98), and substitution of free sugars with non-free sugars was inversely associated with total CVD (0.95;0.92–0.98) and stroke (0.91;0.86–0.97). Free sugar intake was positively associated with triglycerides within all lipoproteins. Conclusions Higher free sugar intake was associated with higher CVD incidence and higher triglyceride concentrations within all lipoproteins. Higher fibre intake and replacement of refined grain starch and free sugars with wholegrain starch and non-free sugars, respectively, may be protective for incident CVD.

AbstractObjectiveTo examine the associations of vegetarianism with risks of ischaemic heart disease and stroke.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingThe EPIC-Oxford study, a cohort in the United Kingdom with a large proportion of non-meat eaters, recruited across the country between 1993 and 2001.Participants48 188 participants with no history of ischaemic heart disease, stroke, or angina (or cardiovascular disease) were classified into three distinct diet groups: meat eaters (participants who consumed meat, regardless of whether they consumed fish, dairy, or eggs; n=24 428), fish eaters (consumed fish but no meat; n=7506), and vegetarians including vegans (n=16 254), based on dietary information collected at baseline, and subsequently around 2010 (n=28 364).Main outcome measuresIncident cases of ischaemic heart disease and stroke (including ischaemic and haemorrhagic types) identified through record linkage until 2016.ResultsOver 18.1 years of follow-up, 2820 cases of ischaemic heart disease and 1072 cases of total stroke (519 ischaemic stroke and 300 haemorrhagic stroke) were recorded. After adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle confounders, fish eaters and vegetarians had 13% (hazard ratio 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.77 to 0.99) and 22% (0.78, 0.70 to 0.87) lower rates of ischaemic heart disease than meat eaters, respectively (P<0.001 for heterogeneity). This difference was equivalent to 10 fewer cases of ischaemic heart disease (95% confidence interval 6.7 to 13.1 fewer) in vegetarians than in meat eaters per 1000 population over 10 years. The associations for ischaemic heart disease were partly attenuated after adjustment for self reported high blood cholesterol, high blood pressure, diabetes, and body mass index (hazard ratio 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 1.00 in vegetarians with all adjustments). By contrast, vegetarians had 20% higher rates of total stroke (hazard ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.40) than meat eaters, equivalent to three more cases of total stroke (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 5.4 more) per 1000 population over 10 years, mostly due to a higher rate of haemorrhagic stroke. The associations for stroke did not attenuate after further adjustment of disease risk factors.ConclusionsIn this prospective cohort in the UK, fish eaters and vegetarians had lower rates of ischaemic heart disease than meat eaters, although vegetarians had higher rates of haemorrhagic and total stroke.

Background There is limited prospective evidence on the association between meat consumption and many common, non-cancerous health outcomes. We examined associations of meat intake with risk of 25 common conditions (other than cancer). Methods We used data from 474,985 middle-aged adults recruited into the UK Biobank study between 2006 and 2010 and followed up until 2017 (mean follow-up 8.0 years) with available information on meat intake at baseline (collected via touchscreen questionnaire), and linked hospital admissions and mortality data. For a large sub-sample (~ 69,000), dietary intakes were re-measured three or more times using an online, 24-h recall questionnaire. Results On average, participants who reported consuming meat regularly (three or more times per week) had more adverse health behaviours and characteristics than participants who consumed meat less regularly, and most of the positive associations observed for meat consumption and health risks were substantially attenuated after adjustment for body mass index (BMI). In multi-variable adjusted (including BMI) Cox regression models corrected for multiple testing, higher consumption of unprocessed red and processed meat combined was associated with higher risks of ischaemic heart disease (hazard ratio (HRs) per 70 g/day higher intake 1.15, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) 1.07–1.23), pneumonia (1.31, 1.18–1.44), diverticular disease (1.19, 1.11–1.28), colon polyps (1.10, 1.06–1.15), and diabetes (1.30, 1.20–1.42); results were similar for unprocessed red meat and processed meat intakes separately. Higher consumption of unprocessed red meat alone was associated with a lower risk of iron deficiency anaemia (IDA: HR per 50 g/day higher intake 0.80, 95% CIs 0.72–0.90). Higher poultry meat intake was associated with higher risks of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (HR per 30 g/day higher intake 1.17, 95% CIs 1.09–1.26), gastritis and duodenitis (1.12, 1.05–1.18), diverticular disease (1.10, 1.04–1.17), gallbladder disease (1.11, 1.04–1.19), and diabetes (1.14, 1.07–1.21), and a lower IDA risk (0.83, 0.76–0.90). Conclusions Higher unprocessed red meat, processed meat, and poultry meat consumption was associated with higher risks of several common conditions; higher BMI accounted for a substantial proportion of these increased risks suggesting that residual confounding or mediation by adiposity might account for some of these remaining associations. Higher unprocessed red meat and poultry meat consumption was associated with lower IDA risk.

Uncertainty remains regarding the role of diet in colorectal cancer development. We examined associations of 97 dietary factors with colorectal cancer risk in 542,778 Million Women Study participants (12,251 incident cases over 16.6 years), and conducted a targeted genetic analysis in the ColoRectal Transdisciplinary Study, Colon Cancer Family Registry, and Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO). Alcohol (relative risk per 20 g/day=1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.20) and calcium (per 300 mg/day=0.83, 0.77–0.89) intakes had the strongest associations, followed by six dairy-related factors associated with calcium. We showed a positive association with red and processed meat intake and weaker inverse associations with breakfast cereal, fruit, wholegrains, carbohydrates, fibre, total sugars, folate, and vitamin C. Genetically predicted milk consumption was inversely associated with risk of colorectal, colon, and rectal cancers. We conclude that dairy products help protect against colorectal cancer, and that this is driven largely or wholly by calcium. Colorectal cancer has been linked to multiple environmental factors, however, the role of diet remains incompletely understood. Here, the authors complete a diet-wide association study and identify a potentially protective role of dairy intake in colorectal cancer incidence, driven largely by calcium.

In a study involving 451,665 adults in China, higher levels of fruit consumption were associated with lower blood pressure and blood glucose levels and, largely independent of these and other dietary and nondietary factors, with significant reductions in cardiovascular risk. Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of premature death and disability worldwide and is responsible for more than 17 million deaths annually, with approximately 80% of the disease burden in low- and middle-income countries, such as China. 1 A low level of fruit consumption is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease, accounting for an estimated 104 million disability-adjusted life-years worldwide in 2010, 2 including approximately 30 million in China. 3 However, these estimates were based mainly on findings from Western studies, with little reliable evidence from China and other developing countries, where diet, lifestyle factors, and disease patterns differ substantially from those . . .

UK Biobank is an open access prospective cohort of 500 000 men and women. Information on the frequency of consumption of main foods was collected at recruitment with a touchscreen questionnaire; prior to examining the associations between diet and disease, it is essential to evaluate the performance of the dietary touchscreen questionnaire. The objectives of the present paper are to: describe the repeatability of the touchscreen questionnaire in participants (n 20 348) who repeated the assessment centre visit approximately 4 years after recruitment, and compare the dietary touchscreen variables with mean intakes from participants (n 140 080) who completed at least one of the four web-based 24-h dietary assessments post-recruitment. For fish and meat items, 90 % or more of participants reported the same or adjacent category of intake at the repeat assessment visit; for vegetables and fruit, and for a derived partial fibre score (in fifths), 70 % or more of participants were classified into the same or adjacent category of intake (κweighted > 0·50 for all). Participants were also categorised based on their responses to the dietary touchscreen questionnaire at recruitment, and within each category the group mean intake of the same food group or nutrient from participants who had completed at least one web-based 24-h dietary assessment was calculated. The comparison showed that the dietary touchscreen variables, available on the full cohort, reliably rank participants according to intakes of the main food groups.

ObjectivesTo assess the health impacts and environmental consequences of adherence to national dietary recommendations (the Eatwell Guide (EWG)) in the UK.Design and settingA secondary analysis of multiple observational studies in the UK.ParticipantsAdults from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer - Oxford(EPIC-Oxford), UK Biobank and Million Women Study, and adults and children aged 5 and over from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS).Primary and secondary outcome measures risk of total mortality from Cox proportional hazards regression models, total greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe) and blue water footprint (WF) associated with ‘very low’ (0–2 recommendations), ‘low’ (3–4 recommendations) or ‘intermediate-to-high’ (5–9 recommendations) adherence to EWG recommendations.ResultsLess than 0.1% of the NDNS sample adhere to all nine EWG recommendations and 30.6% adhere to at least five recommendations. Compared with ‘very low’ adherence to EWG recommendations, ‘intermediate-to-high adherence’ was associated with a reduced risk of mortality (risk ratio (RR): 0.93; 99% CI: 0.90 to 0.97) and −1.6 kg CO2eq/day (95% CI: −1.5 to −1.8), or 30% lower dietary GHGe. Dietary WFs were similar across EWG adherence groups. Of the individual Eatwell guidelines, adherence to the recommendation on fruit and vegetable consumption was associated with the largest reduction in total mortality risk: an RR of 0.90 (99% CI: 0.88 to 0.93). Increased adherence to the recommendation on red and processed meat consumption was associated with the largest decrease in environmental footprints (−1.48 kg CO2eq/day, 95% CI: −1.79 to 1.18 for GHGe and −22.5 L/day, 95% CI: −22.7 to 22.3 for blue WF).ConclusionsThe health and environmental benefits of greater adherence to EWG recommendations support increased government efforts to encourage improved diets in the UK that are essential for the health of people and the planet in the Anthropocene.