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The number of individuals living with dementia is increasing, negatively affecting families, communities, and health-care systems around the world. A successful response to these challenges requires an accurate understanding of the dementia disease burden. We aimed to present the first detailed analysis of the global prevalence, mortality, and overall burden of dementia as captured by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, and highlight the most important messages for clinicians and neurologists. GBD 2016 obtained data on dementia from vital registration systems, published scientific literature and surveys, and data from health-service encounters on deaths, excess mortality, prevalence, and incidence from 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016, through systematic review and additional data-seeking efforts. To correct for differences in cause of death coding across time and locations, we modelled mortality due to dementia using prevalence data and estimates of excess mortality derived from countries that were most likely to code deaths to dementia relative to prevalence. Data were analysed by standardised methods to estimate deaths, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; computed as the sum of YLLs and YLDs), and the fractions of these metrics that were attributable to four risk factors that met GBD criteria for assessment (high body-mass index [BMI], high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and a diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages). In 2016, the global number of individuals who lived with dementia was 43·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 37·8–51·0), increased from 20.2 million (17·4–23·5) in 1990. This increase of 117% (95% UI 114–121) contrasted with a minor increase in age-standardised prevalence of 1·7% (1·0–2·4), from 701 cases (95% UI 602–815) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 712 cases (614–828) per 100 000 population in 2016. More women than men had dementia in 2016 (27·0 million, 95% UI 23·3–31·4, vs 16.8 million, 14.4–19.6), and dementia was the fifth leading cause of death globally, accounting for 2·4 million (95% UI 2·1–2·8) deaths. Overall, 28·8 million (95% UI 24·5–34·0) DALYs were attributed to dementia; 6·4 million (95% UI 3·4–10·5) of these could be attributed to the modifiable GBD risk factors of high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and a high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages. The global number of people living with dementia more than doubled from 1990 to 2016, mainly due to increases in population ageing and growth. Although differences in coding for causes of death and the heterogeneity in case-ascertainment methods constitute major challenges to the estimation of the burden of dementia, future analyses should improve on the methods for the correction of these biases. Until breakthroughs are made in prevention or curative treatment, dementia will constitute an increasing challenge to health-care systems worldwide. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BackgroundChildren with congenital anomalies of kidney and urinary tract (CAKUT) are at high risk of progressive deterioration of kidney function and further developing stage 5 chronic kidney disease (CKD 5), even after a successful surgery. This prospective study was designed to determine whether urinary biomarkers can predict progressive deterioration of kidney function in children with CAKUT.MethodsThe study included 50 consecutive children, aged < 14 years, who were diagnosed with congenital uropathies (PUV, VUR, and PUJO) and 20 age-matched controls. Examination of four urinary biomarkers, i.e., trefoil family factors (TFF) 1 and 3, neutrophil gelatinase–associated lipocalin (NGAL) and microalbuminuria (MALB) was done at the beginning of follow-up. Kidney function was assessed, at the beginning and after 12-months of follow-up, by technetium-99m diethylene triamine pentaacetic acid (DTPA) and technetium-99m dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) scans. Progressive deterioration in the kidney function was defined as a fall in the GFR from ≥ 60 to < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 on comparing the baseline and latest DTPA scans; and/or new-onset cortical scar/scars or increase in the size of previous scar/scars on serial DMSA scans. Group 1 and group 2 included children without and with progressive functional deterioration respectively.ResultsThe median (IQR) age of children with CAKUT and controls was 3 (1.5–5) and 2.3 (1.2–3.6) years, respectively, and showed no significant difference (p = 0.29). Median concentrations of TFF1, TFF3, NGAL, and microalbumin in patients were 44.5, 176.5, 281.2, and 15.5 mcg/gCr, respectively, and were significantly elevated as compared to controls (p < 0.05). Children belonging to group 2 had significantly higher concentration of biomarkers as compared to those in group 1. TFF3 was found have the highest AUC (0.9198) on ROC curve for predicting progressive functional deterioration.ConclusionUrinary TFFs, NGAL, and microalbumin significantly correlate with progressive deterioration of kidney function in children harboring CAKUT. TFF3, with the strongest prediction of functional deterioration, is an emerging peptide showing sufficient potential to be included in the biomarker panel.

Background This cross-sectional study aimed to determine the influence of genetic polymorphism in two renin-angiotensin system (RAS)-candidate genes on urinary trefoil family factor 3 (TFF3) levels in children with congenital anomalies of kidney and urinary tract (CAKUT). Methods The study included fifty children with CAKUT (PUV, VUR, and PUJO) and twenty age-matched controls. Urinary TFF3 levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Detection of genetic polymorphisms in two genes, i.e., I/D polymorphism (SNP at rs4340 ) in angiotensin-converting enzyme ( ACE ) and A/T polymorphism in the angiotensin II receptor type-2 ( AT2R ) due to point mutation at rs3736556 was performed by polymerase chain reaction. Progressive deterioration in kidney function was defined as fall in GFR to < 60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 and/or progressive scarring. Results In our cohort, the genotypic distribution of patients and controls showed no difference. Progressive functional deterioration was significantly associated with the presence of D allele (p = 0.0004), A allele (p = 0.005), and both (p < 0.0001) in patients. Significantly raised TFF3 levels were detected in the urine of children having D allele (D/D > I/D > I/I; p < 0.0001) and A allele (A/A > A/T > TT; p < 0.0001). Also, children with both D/D and A/A allelic genotypes had significantly elevated urinary TFF3 compared to those having either of them. Conclusions The presence of D allele and/or A allele is significantly associated with progressive functional deterioration and elevated urinary TFF3 levels. These findings support the role of angiotensin II- AT2R -NF-κB interaction in progressive deterioration of kidney function and subsequent TFF3 expression in CAKUT. Graphical abstract

Introduction: The ongoing spread of pandemic coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is of growing concern. Rapid diagnosis and management of SARS-CoV-2 are crucial for controlling the outbreak in the community. Here, we report the development of a first rapid-colorimetric assay capable of detecting SARS-CoV-2 in the human nasopharyngeal RNA sample in less than 30 min. Method: We utilized a nanomaterial-based optical sensing platform to detect RNA-dependent RNA polymerase gene of SARS-CoV-2, where the formation of oligo probe-target hybrid led to salt-induced aggregation and change in gold-colloid color from pink to blue visibility range. Accordingly, we found a change in colloid color from pink to blue in assay containing nasopharyngeal RNA sample from the subject with clinically diagnosed COVID-19. The colloid retained pink color when the test includes samples from COVID-19 negative subjects or human papillomavirus-infected women. Results: The results were validated using nasopharyngeal RNA samples from positive COVID-19 subjects (n = 136). Using real-time polymerase chain reaction as gold standard, the assay was found to have 85.29% sensitivity and 94.12% specificity. The optimized method has detection limit as little as 0.5 ng of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Conclusion: We found that the developed assay rapidly detects SARS-CoV-2 RNA in clinical samples in a cost-effective manner and would be useful in pandemic management by facilitating mass screening.

Polymerase γ catalytic subunit (POLG), a nuclear gene, encodes the enzyme responsible for mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) replication. POLG mutations are a major cause of inherited mitochondrial diseases. They present with varied phenotypes, age of onset, and severity. Reports on POLG mutations from India are limited. Hence, this study aimed to describe the clinico-pathological and molecular observations of POLG mutations. A total of 446 patients with clinical diagnosis of mitochondrial disorders were sequenced for all exons and intron-exon boundaries of POLG. Of these, 19 (4.26%) patients (M:F: 10:9) had POLG mutations. The age of onset ranged from 5 to 55 years with an overlapping phenotypic spectrum. Ptosis, peripheral neuropathy, seizures, and ataxia were the common neurological features observed. The most common clinical phenotype was chronic progressive external ophthalmoplegia (CPEO) and CPEO plus (n = 14). Muscle biopsy showed characteristic features of mitochondrial myopathy in fourteen patients (14/19) and respiratory chain enzyme deficiency in eleven patients (11/19). Multiple mtDNA deletions were seen in 47.36% (9/19) patients. Eight pathogenic POLG variations including two novel variations (p.G132R and p.V1106A) were identified. The common pathogenic mutation identified was p.L304R, being present in eight patients (42.1%) predominantly in the younger age group followed by p.W748S in four patients (21%). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first extensive study from India, highlights the clinico-pathological and molecular spectrum of POLG mutations.

Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

18% of the world's population lives in India, and many states of India have populations similar to those of large countries. Action to effectively improve population health in India requires availability of reliable and comprehensive state-level estimates of disease burden and risk factors over time. Such comprehensive estimates have not been available so far for all major diseases and risk factors. Thus, we aimed to estimate the disease burden and risk factors in every state of India as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016. Using all available data sources, the India State-Level Disease Burden Initiative estimated burden (metrics were deaths, disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs], prevalence, incidence, and life expectancy) from 333 disease conditions and injuries and 84 risk factors for each state of India from 1990 to 2016 as part of GBD 2016. We divided the states of India into four epidemiological transition level (ETL) groups on the basis of the ratio of DALYs from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNDs) to those from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries combined in 2016. We assessed variations in the burden of diseases and risk factors between ETL state groups and between states to inform a more specific health-system response in the states and for India as a whole. DALYs due to NCDs and injuries exceeded those due to CMNNDs in 2003 for India, but this transition had a range of 24 years for the four ETL state groups. The age-standardised DALY rate dropped by 36·2% in India from 1990 to 2016. The numbers of DALYs and DALY rates dropped substantially for most CMNNDs between 1990 and 2016 across all ETL groups, but rates of reduction for CMNNDs were slowest in the low ETL state group. By contrast, numbers of DALYs increased substantially for NCDs in all ETL state groups, and increased significantly for injuries in all ETL state groups except the highest. The all-age prevalence of most leading NCDs increased substantially in India from 1990 to 2016, and a modest decrease was recorded in the age-standardised NCD DALY rates. The major risk factors for NCDs, including high systolic blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, high total cholesterol, and high body-mass index, increased from 1990 to 2016, with generally higher levels in higher ETL states; ambient air pollution also increased and was highest in the low ETL group. The incidence rate of the leading causes of injuries also increased from 1990 to 2016. The five leading individual causes of DALYs in India in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, and cerebrovascular disease; and the five leading risk factors for DALYs in 2016 were child and maternal malnutrition, air pollution, dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, and high fasting plasma glucose. Behind these broad trends many variations existed between the ETL state groups and between states within the ETL groups. Of the ten leading causes of disease burden in India in 2016, five causes had at least a five-times difference between the highest and lowest state-specific DALY rates for individual causes. Per capita disease burden measured as DALY rate has dropped by about a third in India over the past 26 years. However, the magnitude and causes of disease burden and the risk factors vary greatly between the states. The change to dominance of NCDs and injuries over CMNNDs occurred about a quarter century apart in the four ETL state groups. Nevertheless, the burden of some of the leading CMNNDs continues to be very high, especially in the lowest ETL states. This comprehensive mapping of inequalities in disease burden and its causes across the states of India can be a crucial input for more specific health planning for each state as is envisioned by the Government of India's premier think tank, the National Institution for Transforming India, and the National Health Policy 2017. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India; and World Bank

BackgroundPast research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.MethodsWe reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).FindingsIn 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).InterpretationInjuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

BackgroundWhile there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.MethodsIn this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.ResultsGBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.ConclusionsGBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Patients with advanced Chronic Kidney Disease of Unknown origin (CKDu) need to plan for renal replacement therapy. The patients usually affected are probably best served with living-related renal transplantation. Potential donors from the same area are possibly at risk for developing CKDu and need close monitoring post kidney donation. Peritoneal dialysis (PD) is probably a better option as hemodialysis (HD) centers are located in urban areas only and patients have the convenience of receiving therapy at home. The \"PD first\" pilot project of Sri Lanka is a unique initiative that trains community physicians to offer PD to patients with advanced CKDu. In Telengana and Andhra Pradesh, the Aarogyasri insurance scheme provides for poor patients to avail of free HD and transplantation in government and private hospitals. Much more needs to be done to care for all those who are affected. A public-private partnership model for providing comprehensive care to patients with advanced CKDu can be undertaken in all areas affected by CKDu that makes renal replacement therapy (RRT) available and accessible, irrespective of financial and social limitations.