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Background Multimorbidity is an emerging public health priority. Physical activity (PA) is recommended as one of the main lifestyle behaviours, yet the benefits of PA for people with multimorbidity are unclear. We assessed the benefits of PA on mortality and life expectancy in people with and without multimorbidity. Methods Using the UK Biobank dataset, we extracted data on 36 chronic conditions and defined multimorbidity as (a) 2 or more conditions, (b) 2 or more conditions combined with self-reported overall health, and (c) 2 or more top-10 most common comorbidities. Leisure-time PA (LTPA) and total PA (TPA) were measured by questionnaire and categorised as low (< 600 metabolic equivalent (MET)-min/week), moderate (600 to < 3000 MET-min/week), and high (≥ 3000 MET-min/week), while objectively assessed PA was assessed by wrist-worn accelerometer and categorised as low (4 min/day), moderate (10 min/day), and high (22 min/day) walking at brisk pace. Survival models were applied to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and predict life expectancy differences. Results 491,939 individuals (96,622 with 2 or more conditions) had a median follow-up of 7.0 (IQR 6.3–7.6) years. Compared to low LTPA, for participants with multimorbidity, HR for mortality was 0.75 (95% CI 0.70–0.80) and 0.65 (0.56–0.75) in moderate and high LTPA groups, respectively. This finding was consistent when using TPA measures. Using objective PA, HRs were 0.49 (0.29–0.80) and 0.29 (0.13–0.61) in the moderate and high PA groups, respectively. These findings were similar for participants without multimorbidity. In participants with multimorbidity, at the age of 45 years, moderate and high LTPA were associated with an average of 3.12 (95% CI 2.53, 3.71) and 3.55 (2.34, 4.77) additional life years, respectively, compared to low LTPA; in participants without multimorbidity, corresponding figures were 1.95 (1.59, 2.31) and 1.85 (1.19, 2.50). Similar results were found with TPA. For objective PA, moderate and high levels were associated with 3.60 (− 0.60, 7.79) and 5.32 (− 0.47, 11.11) life years gained compared to low PA for those with multimorbidity and 3.88 (1.79, 6.00) and 4.51 (2.15, 6.88) life years gained in those without. Results were consistent when using other definitions of multimorbidity. Conclusions There was an inverse dose-response association between PA and mortality. A moderate exercise is associated with a longer life expectancy, also in individuals with multimorbidity.

AbstractObjectiveTo derive and validate a risk prediction algorithm to estimate hospital admission and mortality outcomes from coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in adults.DesignPopulation based cohort study.Setting and participantsQResearch database, comprising 1205 general practices in England with linkage to covid-19 test results, Hospital Episode Statistics, and death registry data. 6.08 million adults aged 19-100 years were included in the derivation dataset and 2.17 million in the validation dataset. The derivation and first validation cohort period was 24 January 2020 to 30 April 2020. The second temporal validation cohort covered the period 1 May 2020 to 30 June 2020.Main outcome measuresThe primary outcome was time to death from covid-19, defined as death due to confirmed or suspected covid-19 as per the death certification or death occurring in a person with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the period 24 January to 30 April 2020. The secondary outcome was time to hospital admission with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Models were fitted in the derivation cohort to derive risk equations using a range of predictor variables. Performance, including measures of discrimination and calibration, was evaluated in each validation time period.Results4384 deaths from covid-19 occurred in the derivation cohort during follow-up and 1722 in the first validation cohort period and 621 in the second validation cohort period. The final risk algorithms included age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, and a range of comorbidities. The algorithm had good calibration in the first validation cohort. For deaths from covid-19 in men, it explained 73.1% (95% confidence interval 71.9% to 74.3%) of the variation in time to death (R2); the D statistic was 3.37 (95% confidence interval 3.27 to 3.47), and Harrell’s C was 0.928 (0.919 to 0.938). Similar results were obtained for women, for both outcomes, and in both time periods. In the top 5% of patients with the highest predicted risks of death, the sensitivity for identifying deaths within 97 days was 75.7%. People in the top 20% of predicted risk of death accounted for 94% of all deaths from covid-19.ConclusionThe QCOVID population based risk algorithm performed well, showing very high levels of discrimination for deaths and hospital admissions due to covid-19. The absolute risks presented, however, will change over time in line with the prevailing SARS-C0V-2 infection rate and the extent of social distancing measures in place, so they should be interpreted with caution. The model can be recalibrated for different time periods, however, and has the potential to be dynamically updated as the pandemic evolves.

AbstractObjectiveTo estimate and compare progression rates to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and healthy controls.DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis.Data sourcesMedline and Embase between January 2000 and December 2019, studies published in English and conducted on humans.Eligibility criteria for selecting studiesObservational studies investigating progression to T2DM. Inclusion criteria were postpartum follow-up for at least 12 months, incident physician based diagnosis of diabetes, T2DM reported as a separate outcome rather than combined with impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance, and studies with both a group of patients with GDM and a control group.ResultsThis meta-analysis of 20 studies assessed a total of 1 332 373 individuals (67 956 women with GDM and 1 264 417 controls). Data were pooled by random effects meta-analysis models, and heterogeneity was assessed by use of the I2 statistic. The pooled relative risk for the incidence of T2DM between participants with GDM and controls was estimated. Reasons for heterogeneity between studies were investigated by prespecified subgroup and meta-regression analyses. Publication bias was assessed by funnel plots and, overall, studies were deemed to have a low risk of bias (P=0.58 and P=0.90). The overall relative risk for T2DM was almost 10 times higher in women with previous GDM than in healthy controls (9.51, 95% confidence interval 7.14 to 12.67, P<0.001). In populations of women with previous GDM, the cumulative incidence of T2DM was 16.46% (95% confidence interval 16.16% to 16.77%) in women of mixed ethnicity, 15.58% (13.30% to 17.86%) in a predominantly non-white population, and 9.91% (9.39% to 10.42%) in a white population. These differences were not statistically significant between subgroups (white v mixed populations, P=0.26; white v non-white populations, P=0.54). Meta-regression analyses showed that the study effect size was not significantly associated with mean study age, body mass index, publication year, and length of follow-up.ConclusionsWomen with a history of GDM appear to have a nearly 10-fold higher risk of developing T2DM than those with a normoglycaemic pregnancy. The magnitude of this risk highlights the importance of intervening to prevent the onset of T2DM, particularly in the early years after pregnancy.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42019123079.

In one comparison from a 2-by-2 factorial trial, 12,705 persons at intermediate cardiovascular risk were assigned to either rosuvastatin or placebo. At 5.6 years, there were significantly fewer participants with cardiovascular events in the rosuvastatin group than in the placebo group. Cardiovascular diseases cause 18 million deaths per year globally and a similar number of nonfatal cardiovascular events. 1 Elevated low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels account for approximately half the population-attributable risk of myocardial infarction 2 and approximately one quarter of the risk of ischemic stroke. 3 In previous trials, lowering LDL cholesterol levels with statins has been shown to reduce the risk of cardiovascular diseases, but most of the patients enrolled in those trials had vascular disease, elevated lipid levels, elevated inflammatory markers, hypertension, or diabetes. 4 , 5 The association between LDL cholesterol level and cardiovascular disease is graded and has no documented threshold. . . .

Objective To investigate the independent effects of intake of fruit and vegetables on incidence of type 2 diabetes.Design Systematic review and meta-analysis.Data sources Medline, Embase, CINAHL, British Nursing Index (BNI), and the Cochrane library were searched for medical subject headings and keywords on diabetes, prediabetes, fruit, and vegetables. Expert opinions were sought and reference lists of relevant articles checked.Study selection Prospective cohort studies with an independent measure of intake of fruit, vegetables, or fruit and vegetables and data on incidence of type 2 diabetes.Results Six studies met the inclusion criteria; four of these studies also provided separate information on the consumption of green leafy vegetables. Summary estimates showed that greater intake of green leafy vegetables was associated with a 14% (hazard ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.77 to 0.97) reduction in risk of type 2 diabetes (P=0.01). The summary estimates showed no significant benefits of increasing the consumption of vegetables, fruit, or fruit and vegetables combined.Conclusion Increasing daily intake of green leafy vegetables could significantly reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes and should be investigated further.

Intensive treatment of multiple cardiovascular risk factors can halve mortality among people with established type 2 diabetes. We investigated the effect of early multifactorial treatment after diagnosis by screening. In a pragmatic, cluster-randomised, parallel-group trial done in Denmark, the Netherlands, and the UK, 343 general practices were randomly assigned screening of registered patients aged 40–69 years without known diabetes followed by routine care of diabetes or screening followed by intensive treatment of multiple risk factors. The primary endpoint was first cardiovascular event, including cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, revascularisation, and non-traumatic amputation within 5 years. Patients and staff assessing outcomes were unaware of the practice's study group assignment. Analysis was done by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00237549. Primary endpoint data were available for 3055 (99·9%) of 3057 screen-detected patients. The mean age was 60·3 (SD 6·9) years and the mean duration of follow-up was 5·3 (SD 1·6) years. Improvements in cardiovascular risk factors (HbA 1c and cholesterol concentrations and blood pressure) were slightly but significantly better in the intensive treatment group. The incidence of first cardiovascular event was 7·2% (13·5 per 1000 person-years) in the intensive treatment group and 8·5% (15·9 per 1000 person-years) in the routine care group (hazard ratio 0·83, 95% CI 0·65–1·05), and of all-cause mortality 6·2% (11·6 per 1000 person-years) and 6·7% (12·5 per 1000 person-years; 0·91, 0·69–1·21), respectively. An intervention to promote early intensive management of patients with type 2 diabetes was associated with a small, non-significant reduction in the incidence of cardiovascular events and death. National Health Service Denmark, Danish Council for Strategic Research, Danish Research Foundation for General Practice, Danish Centre for Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment, Danish National Board of Health, Danish Medical Research Council, Aarhus University Research Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, UK NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme, UK National Health Service R&D, UK National Institute for Health Research, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center, Utrecht, Novo Nordisk, Astra, Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, Servier, HemoCue, Merck.

Evolving debate suggests that C-reactive protein (CRP) might be associated with the development of venous thromboembolism (VTE); however, the evidence is conflicting. We aimed to assess the prospective association of CRP with VTE risk. C-reactive protein was measured in serum samples at baseline from 2420 men aged 42-61 years, from the Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease study. Within-person variability in CRP levels was corrected for using repeat measurements of CRP taken 11 years after baseline. Incident VTE events (n = 119) were recorded during a median follow-up of 24.7 years. The age-adjusted regression dilution ratio for loge CRP was 0.57 [95% confidence interval (CIs): 0.51-0.64]. In age-adjusted Cox regression analysis, the hazard ratio (95% CIs) for VTE per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in loge baseline CRP was 1.17 (0.98-1.40). Further adjustment for several established and emerging risk factors did not alter the association. In a meta-analysis of nine population-based studies (including the current study) comprising 81,625 participants and 2225 VTE cases, the fully-adjusted risk estimate for VTE was 1.14 (1.08-1.19) per SD increase in loge baseline CRP. In a pooled dose-response analysis, a linear association between CRP and VTE risk was suggested (P for nonlinearity = 0.272). The pooled risk estimate for VTE per 5 mg/1 increment in CRP levels was 1.23 (1.09-1.38). C-reactive protein was only modestly associated with VTE risk in the primary analysis. Pooled evidence, however, suggests that elevated CRP is associated with greater VTE risk, consistent with a linear dose-response relationship.

Background Intensification of metformin monotherapy with additional glucose-lowering drugs is often required in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). This study evaluated changes in HbA1c and weight, as well as treatment persistence, associated with different second-line therapies used in UK clinical practice. Methods The UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink was used to identify patients with T2D who initiated second-line therapy after metformin monotherapy between 1 August 2013 and 14 June 2016. Treatment persistence and changes in HbA1c and weight were assessed at 6-month intervals up to 18 months. Results In total, 9097 patients (mean age 61.2 years, 57.2% men, mean [standard deviation] HbA1c 9.0% [1.8]/ 75 mmol/mol [19.7]) were included in the analysis, with a median 2.3 years between initiating metformin monotherapy and initiating second-line therapy. Patients were stratified according to second-line therapy: metformin in combination with sulfonylurea (SU; n  = 4655 [51.2%]), a dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP-4 inhibitor; n  = 2899 [31.9%]), or a sodium–glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT-2 inhibitor; n  = 441 [4.9%]) or other therapies (all other second-line treatments; n  = 1102 [12.1%]). At 18 months, the cumulative proportion of patients changing treatment was lowest for those who received metformin plus an SGLT-2 inhibitor (42.3%), followed by patients on metformin plus SU or metformin plus a DPP-4 inhibitor (46.8%). HbA1c reductions were seen with all second-line therapies, with an overall mean (standard error) reduction of −1.23% (0.05)/−13.4 mmol/mol (0.5). Changes were directly, but not linearly, related to baseline HbA1c and were greater in those with higher HbA1c at baseline. Weight loss from baseline was greatest in patients treated with metformin plus either an SGLT-2 inhibitor (−4.2 kg) or a DPP-4 inhibitor (−1.5 kg). The highest proportion of patients who achieved the composite outcome of HbA1c reduction ≥ 0.5%, body weight loss ≥ 2.0 kg and treatment persistence for 18 months was observed in those receiving metformin plus an SGLT-2 inhibitor (36.5%). Conclusions In this population-based cohort, all second-line therapies added to metformin monotherapy improved glycaemic control, but the lowest treatment change/discontinuation rate and most sustained weight loss was seen with patients receiving metformin plus an SGLT-2 inhibitor.

The first dose of COVID-19 vaccines led to an overall reduction in cardiovascular events, and in rare cases, cardiovascular complications. There is less information about the effect of second and booster doses on cardiovascular diseases. Using longitudinal health records from 45.7 million adults in England between December 2020 and January 2022, our study compared the incidence of thrombotic and cardiovascular complications up to 26 weeks after first, second and booster doses of brands and combinations of COVID-19 vaccines used during the UK vaccination program with the incidence before or without the corresponding vaccination. The incidence of common arterial thrombotic events (mainly acute myocardial infarction and ischaemic stroke) was generally lower after each vaccine dose, brand and combination. Similarly, the incidence of common venous thrombotic events, (mainly pulmonary embolism and lower limb deep venous thrombosis) was lower after vaccination. There was a higher incidence of previously reported rare harms after vaccination: vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia after first ChAdOx1 vaccination, and myocarditis and pericarditis after first, second and transiently after booster mRNA vaccination (BNT-162b2 and mRNA-1273). These findings support the wide uptake of future COVID-19 vaccination programs. COVID-19 vaccines have been associated with rare cardiovascular and thrombotic complications. Here, the authors use population-based longitudinal electronic health record data from ~46 million adults in England to quantify these outcomes following different vaccine doses and schedules.