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Cybercrime is estimated to have cost the global economy just under USD 1 trillion in 2020, indicating an increase of more than 50% since 2018. With the average cyber insurance claim rising from USD 145,000 in 2019 to USD 359,000 in 2020, there is a growing necessity for better cyber information sources, standardised databases, mandatory reporting and public awareness. This research analyses the extant academic and industry literature on cybersecurity and cyber risk management with a particular focus on data availability. From a preliminary search resulting in 5219 cyber peer-reviewed studies, the application of the systematic methodology resulted in 79 unique datasets. We posit that the lack of available data on cyber risk poses a serious problem for stakeholders seeking to tackle this issue. In particular, we identify a lacuna in open databases that undermine collective endeavours to better manage this set of risks. The resulting data evaluation and categorisation will support cybersecurity researchers and the insurance industry in their efforts to comprehend, metricise and manage cyber risks.

Early admission to the neurosciences intensive care unit (NSICU) is associated with improved patient outcomes. Natural language processing offers new possibilities for mining free text in electronic health record data. We sought to develop a machine learning model using both tabular and free text data to identify patients requiring NSICU admission shortly after arrival to the emergency department (ED). We conducted a single-center, retrospective cohort study of adult patients at the Mount Sinai Hospital, an academic medical center in New York City. All patients presenting to our institutional ED between January 2014 and December 2018 were included. Structured (tabular) demographic, clinical, bed movement record data, and free text data from triage notes were extracted from our institutional data warehouse. A machine learning model was trained to predict likelihood of NSICU admission at 30 min from arrival to the ED. We identified 412,858 patients presenting to the ED over the study period, of whom 1900 (0.5%) were admitted to the NSICU. The daily median number of ED presentations was 231 (IQR 200–256) and the median time from ED presentation to the decision for NSICU admission was 169 min (IQR 80–324). A model trained only with text data had an area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) of 0.90 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87–0.91). A structured data-only model had an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI 0.91–0.94). A combined model trained on structured and text data had an AUC of 0.93 (95% CI 0.92–0.95). At a false positive rate of 1:100 (99% specificity), the combined model was 58% sensitive for identifying NSICU admission. A machine learning model using structured and free text data can predict NSICU admission soon after ED arrival. This may potentially improve ED and NSICU resource allocation. Further studies should validate our findings.

Objectives: Approximately 20–30% of patients with COVID-19 require hospitalization, and 5–12% may require critical care in an intensive care unit (ICU). A rapid surge in cases of severe COVID-19 will lead to a corresponding surge in demand for ICU care. Because of constraints on resources, frontline healthcare workers may be unable to provide the frequent monitoring and assessment required for all patients at high risk of clinical deterioration. We developed a machine learning-based risk prioritization tool that predicts ICU transfer within 24 h, seeking to facilitate efficient use of care providers’ efforts and help hospitals plan their flow of operations. Methods: A retrospective cohort was comprised of non-ICU COVID-19 admissions at a large acute care health system between 26 February and 18 April 2020. Time series data, including vital signs, nursing assessments, laboratory data, and electrocardiograms, were used as input variables for training a random forest (RF) model. The cohort was randomly split (70:30) into training and test sets. The RF model was trained using 10-fold cross-validation on the training set, and its predictive performance on the test set was then evaluated. Results: The cohort consisted of 1987 unique patients diagnosed with COVID-19 and admitted to non-ICU units of the hospital. The median time to ICU transfer was 2.45 days from the time of admission. Compared to actual admissions, the tool had 72.8% (95% CI: 63.2–81.1%) sensitivity, 76.3% (95% CI: 74.7–77.9%) specificity, 76.2% (95% CI: 74.6–77.7%) accuracy, and 79.9% (95% CI: 75.2–84.6%) area under the receiver operating characteristics curve. Conclusions: A ML-based prediction model can be used as a screening tool to identify patients at risk of imminent ICU transfer within 24 h. This tool could improve the management of hospital resources and patient-throughput planning, thus delivering more effective care to patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

ObjectiveThe COVID-19 pandemic is a global public health crisis, with over 33 million cases and 999 000 deaths worldwide. Data are needed regarding the clinical course of hospitalised patients, particularly in the USA. We aimed to compare clinical characteristic of patients with COVID-19 who had in-hospital mortality with those who were discharged alive.DesignDemographic, clinical and outcomes data for patients admitted to five Mount Sinai Health System hospitals with confirmed COVID-19 between 27 February and 2 April 2020 were identified through institutional electronic health records. We performed a retrospective comparative analysis of patients who had in-hospital mortality or were discharged alive.SettingAll patients were admitted to the Mount Sinai Health System, a large quaternary care urban hospital system.ParticipantsParticipants over the age of 18 years were included.Primary outcomesWe investigated in-hospital mortality during the study period.ResultsA total of 2199 patients with COVID-19 were hospitalised during the study period. As of 2 April, 1121 (51%) patients remained hospitalised, and 1078 (49%) completed their hospital course. Of the latter, the overall mortality was 29%, and 36% required intensive care. The median age was 65 years overall and 75 years in those who died. Pre-existing conditions were present in 65% of those who died and 46% of those discharged. In those who died, the admission median lymphocyte percentage was 11.7%, D-dimer was 2.4 μg/mL, C reactive protein was 162 mg/L and procalcitonin was 0.44 ng/mL. In those discharged, the admission median lymphocyte percentage was 16.6%, D-dimer was 0.93 μg/mL, C reactive protein was 79 mg/L and procalcitonin was 0.09 ng/mL.ConclusionsIn our cohort of hospitalised patients, requirement of intensive care and mortality were high. Patients who died typically had more pre-existing conditions and greater perturbations in inflammatory markers as compared with those who were discharged.

Machine learning (ML)-based clinical decision support systems (CDSS) are popular in clinical practice settings but are often criticized for being limited in usability, interpretability, and effectiveness. Evaluating the implementation of ML-based CDSS is critical to ensure CDSS is acceptable and useful to clinicians and helps them deliver high-quality health care. Malnutrition is a common and underdiagnosed condition among hospital patients, which can have serious adverse impacts. Early identification and treatment of malnutrition are important. This study aims to evaluate the implementation of an ML tool, Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST)-Plus, that predicts hospital patients at high risk for malnutrition and identify best implementation practices applicable to this and other ML-based CDSS. We conducted a qualitative postimplementation evaluation using in-depth interviews with registered dietitians (RDs) who use MUST-Plus output in their everyday work. After coding the data, we mapped emergent themes onto select domains of the nonadoption, abandonment, scale-up, spread, and sustainability (NASSS) framework. We interviewed 17 of the 24 RDs approached (71%), representing 37% of those who use MUST-Plus output. Several themes emerged: (1) enhancements to the tool were made to improve accuracy and usability; (2) MUST-Plus helped identify patients that would not otherwise be seen; perceived usefulness was highest in the original site; (3) perceived accuracy varied by respondent and site; (4) RDs valued autonomy in prioritizing patients; (5) depth of tool understanding varied by hospital and level; (6) MUST-Plus was integrated into workflows and electronic health records; and (7) RDs expressed a desire to eventually have 1 automated screener. Our findings suggest that continuous involvement of stakeholders at new sites given staff turnover is vital to ensure buy-in. Qualitative research can help identify the potential bias of ML tools and should be widely used to ensure health equity. Ongoing collaboration among CDSS developers, data scientists, and clinical providers may help refine CDSS for optimal use and improve the acceptability of CDSS in the clinical context.

Malnutrition is a frequently underdiagnosed condition leading to increased morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. The Mount Sinai Health System (MSHS) deployed a machine learning model (MUST-Plus) to detect malnutrition upon hospital admission. However, in diverse patient groups, a poorly calibrated model may lead to misdiagnosis, exacerbating health care disparities. We explored the model’s calibration across different variables and methods to improve calibration. Data from adult patients admitted to five MSHS hospitals from January 1, 2021 - December 31, 2022, were analyzed. We compared MUST-Plus prediction to the registered dietitian’s formal assessment. Hierarchical calibration was assessed and compared between the recalibration sample (N = 49,562) of patients admitted between January 1, 2021 - December 31, 2022, and the hold-out sample (N = 17,278) of patients admitted between January 1, 2023 - September 30, 2023. Statistical differences in calibration metrics were tested using bootstrapping with replacement. Before recalibration, the overall model calibration intercept was −1.17 (95% CI: −1.20, −1.14), slope was 1.37 (95% CI: 1.34, 1.40), and Brier score was 0.26 (95% CI: 0.25, 0.26). Both weak and moderate measures of calibration were significantly different between White and Black patients and between male and female patients. Logistic recalibration significantly improved calibration of the model across race and gender in the hold-out sample. The original MUST-Plus model showed significant differences in calibration between White vs. Black patients. It also overestimated malnutrition in females compared to males. Logistic recalibration effectively reduced miscalibration across all patient subgroups. Continual monitoring and timely recalibration can improve model accuracy.

Background:Early prediction of the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 symptoms can help in the allocation of resources appropriately and improve patient outcomes by appropriately monitoring and treating patients at the greatest risk of respiratory failure. To help with the complexity of deciding whether a patient needs IMV, machine learning algorithms may help bring more prognostic value in a timely and systematic manner. Chest radiographs (CXRs) and electronic medical records (EMRs), typically obtained early in patients admitted with COVID-19, are the keys to deciding whether they need IMV.Objective:We aimed to evaluate the use of a machine learning model to predict the need for intubation within 24 hours by using a combination of CXR and EMR data in an end-to-end automated pipeline. We included historical data from 2481 hospitalizations at The Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City.Methods:CXRs were first resized, rescaled, and normalized. Then lungs were segmented from the CXRs by using a U-Net algorithm. After splitting them into a training and a test set, the training set images were augmented. The augmented images were used to train an image classifier to predict the probability of intubation with a prediction window of 24 hours by retraining a pretrained DenseNet model by using transfer learning, 10-fold cross-validation, and grid search. Then, in the final fusion model, we trained a random forest algorithm via 10-fold cross-validation by combining the probability score from the image classifier with 41 longitudinal variables in the EMR. Variables in the EMR included clinical and laboratory data routinely collected in the inpatient setting. The final fusion model gave a prediction likelihood for the need of intubation within 24 hours as well.Results:At a prediction probability threshold of 0.5, the fusion model provided 78.9% (95% CI 59%-96%) sensitivity, 83% (95% CI 76%-89%) specificity, 0.509 (95% CI 0.34-0.67) F1-score, 0.874 (95% CI 0.80-0.94) area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and 0.497 (95% CI 0.32-0.65) area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC) on the holdout set. Compared to the image classifier alone, which had an AUROC of 0.577 (95% CI 0.44-0.73) and an AUPRC of 0.206 (95% CI 0.08-0.38), the fusion model showed significant improvement (P<.001). The most important predictor variables were respiratory rate, C-reactive protein, oxygen saturation, and lactate dehydrogenase. The imaging probability score ranked 15th in overall feature importance.Conclusions:We show that, when linked with EMR data, an automated deep learning image classifier improved performance in identifying hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19 at risk for intubation. With additional prospective and external validation, such a model may assist risk assessment and optimize clinical decision-making in choosing the best care plan during the critical stages of COVID-19.

Early detection of patients at risk for clinical deterioration is crucial for timely intervention. Traditional detection systems rely on a limited set of variables and are unable to predict the time of decline. We describe a machine learning model called MEWS++ that enables the identification of patients at risk of escalation of care or death six hours prior to the event. A retrospective single-center cohort study was conducted from July 2011 to July 2017 of adult (age > 18) inpatients excluding psychiatric, parturient, and hospice patients. Three machine learning models were trained and tested: random forest (RF), linear support vector machine, and logistic regression. We compared the models’ performance to the traditional Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) using sensitivity, specificity, and Area Under the Curve for Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC-ROC) and Precision-Recall curves (AUC-PR). The primary outcome was escalation of care from a floor bed to an intensive care or step-down unit, or death, within 6 h. A total of 96,645 patients with 157,984 hospital encounters and 244,343 bed movements were included. Overall rate of escalation or death was 3.4%. The RF model had the best performance with sensitivity 81.6%, specificity 75.5%, AUC-ROC of 0.85, and AUC-PR of 0.37. Compared to traditional MEWS, sensitivity increased 37%, specificity increased 11%, and AUC-ROC increased 14%. This study found that using machine learning and readily available clinical data, clinical deterioration or death can be predicted 6 h prior to the event. The model we developed can warn of patient deterioration hours before the event, thus helping make timely clinical decisions.

Introduction Depression and its components significantly impact dementia prediction and severity, necessitating reliable objective measures for quantification. Methods We investigated associations between emotion‐based speech measures (valence, arousal, and dominance) during picture descriptions and depression dimensions derived from the geriatric depression scale (GDS, dysphoria, withdrawal‐apathy‐vigor (WAV), anxiety, hopelessness, and subjective memory complaint). Results Higher WAV was associated with more negative valence (estimate = ‐0.133, p = 0.030). While interactions of apolipoprotein E (APOE) 4 status with depression dimensions on emotional valence did not reach significance, there was a trend for more negative valence with higher dysphoria in those with at least one APOE4 allele (estimate = –0.404, p = 0.0846). Associations were similar irrespective of dementia severity. Discussion Our study underscores the potential utility of speech biomarkers in characterizing depression dimensions. In future research, using emotionally charged stimuli may enhance emotional measure elicitation. The role of APOE on the interaction of speech markers and depression dimensions warrants further exploration with greater sample sizes. Highlights Participants reporting higher apathy used more negative words to describe a neutral picture. Those with higher dysphoria and at least one APOE4 allele also tended to use more negative words. Our results suggest the potential use of speech biomarkers in characterizing depression dimensions.

The decision to extubate patients on invasive mechanical ventilation is critical; however, clinician performance in identifying patients to liberate from the ventilator is poor. Machine Learning-based predictors using tabular data have been developed; however, these fail to capture the wide spectrum of data available. Here, we develop and validate a deep learning-based model using routinely collected chest X-rays to predict the outcome of attempted extubation. We included 2288 serial patients admitted to the Medical ICU at an urban academic medical center, who underwent invasive mechanical ventilation, with at least one intubated CXR, and a documented extubation attempt. The last CXR before extubation for each patient was taken and split 79/21 for training/testing sets, then transfer learning with k-fold cross-validation was used on a pre-trained ResNet50 deep learning architecture. The top three models were ensembled to form a final classifier. The Grad-CAM technique was used to visualize image regions driving predictions. The model achieved an AUC of 0.66, AUPRC of 0.94, sensitivity of 0.62, and specificity of 0.60. The model performance was improved compared to the Rapid Shallow Breathing Index (AUC 0.61) and the only identified previous study in this domain (AUC 0.55), but significant room for improvement and experimentation remains.