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Tropical deforestation is estimated to cause about one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental services. United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change talks are now considering mechanisms for avoiding deforestation (AD), but the economic potential of AD has yet to be addressed. We use three economic models of global land use and management to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option. A program providing a 10% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 0.3-0.6 Gt (1 Gt = 1 x 10⁵ g) CO₂·yr⁻¹ in emission reductions and would require $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion·yr⁻¹ for 30 years. A 50% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 1.5-2.7 Gt CO₂·yr⁻¹ in emission reductions and would require $17.2 billion to $28.0 billion·yr⁻¹. Finally, some caveats to the analysis that could increase costs of AD programs are described.

Natural revegetation, afforestation, and lignocellulosic crops for bioenergy, possibly coupled with a developing technology like carbon capture and storage, are the most common land-based climate change mitigation options. However, they can compete for land and threaten food security or nature conservation. Using abandoned cropland for their deployment can minimize these risks, but associated potentials are unclear. Here, we compare alternative land-based mitigation options by integrating historical and future (up to 2050) abandoned cropland with site-specific biomass yields and life-cycle emissions. Considering natural revegetation in biodiversity priority areas and different measures in the remaining land can achieve a mitigation potential of 0.8–4.0 GtCO 2 -equivalents yr −1 (2–11% of 2021 global CO 2 emissions). Afforestation generally provides larger climate benefits than bioenergy, but bioenergy with carbon capture and storage delivers the highest mitigation in most locations. Overall, these results offer refined estimates of mitigation potentials from abandoned cropland and highlight opportunities for context-specific mitigation measures.

Question: We compared the soil organic carbon stock of the forests of an entire country. The objective of our research was establishing the differences between coniferous or deciduous forests with respect to soil carbon stocks. The question is relevant because coniferous forests are increasingly damaged by abiotic and biotic disturbances that are related to climate change. Deciduous forests are considered to be less vulnerable. Their soils are expected to be more persistent and reliable sinks for carbon dioxide. Methods: Soil data are available from the Austrian Forest Soil Survey. Soils have been sampled on sites of the Austrian Forest Inventory. The data were stratified according to geology (calcareous vs. silicatic bedrock), orientation of the slopes, and forest type (coniferous vs. mixed-deciduous forest). These data were used to establish ground truth of soil organic carbon stocks. Further, we had simulation results of a coupled forest growth/soil carbon model. The scenarios built on the results of the Forest Inventory 2007/09 and reflect a business-as-usual forest management vs. a climate-change adaptation scenario where forest managers replace coniferous with deciduous forests if site conditions permit it. The simulations were performed with the forest growth simulator CÂLDIS and the soil carbon model Yasso07. Results: Based on the Austrian Forest Soil Survey carbon stocks of coniferous forests were consistently higher than in mixed-deciduous forests. This result applies both for the organic litter layer and the mineral soil to a depth of 50 cm. The depth gradients of carbon were similar in both forest types. The simulation under a strong warming scenario showed an increase in the carbon stocks of soils when conifers are replaced by deciduous tree species. In the 150-year simulation the majority of forest sites will become suitable for deciduous forests. The build-up of a large soil organic carbon stock is driven by the stronger harvesting pressure on the remaining coniferous forests. Deciduous forests were in lesser demand and developed under a light forest intervention regime. However, toward the end of the century, when the temperature level is far above present levels, the soil organic carbon stocks declined.

Fertile land and freshwater constitute two of the most fundamental resources for food production. These resources are affected by environmental, political, economic, and technical developments. Regional impacts may transmit to the world through increased trade. With a global forest and agricultural sector model, we quantify the impacts of increased demand for food due to population growth and economic development on potential land and water use until 2030. In particular, we investigate producer adaptation regarding crop and irrigation choice, agricultural market adjustments, and changes in the values of land and water. In the context of resource sustainability and food security, this study accounts for the spatial and operational heterogeneity of irrigation management to globally assess agricultural land and water use. Agricultural responses to population and economic growth include considerable increases in irrigated area and water use but reductions in the average water intensity. Different irrigation systems are preferred under different exogenous biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. Negligence of these adaptations would bias the burden of development on land and water scarcity. Without technical progress, substantial price adjustments for land, water, and food would be required to equilibrate supply and demand.

The mission of this study is to compare Net Primary Productivity (NPP) estimates using (i) forest inventory data and (ii) spatio-temporally continuous MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) remote sensing data for Austria. While forest inventories assess the change in forest growth based on repeated individual tree measurements (DBH, height etc.), the MODIS NPP estimates are based on ecophysiological processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and carbon allocation. We obtained repeated national forest inventory data from Austria, calculated a “ground-based” NPP estimate and compared the results with “space-based” MODIS NPP estimates using different daily climate data. The MODIS NPP estimates using local Austrian climate data exhibited better compliance with the forest inventory driven NPP estimates than the MODIS NPP predictions using global climate data sets. Stand density plays a key role in addressing the differences between MODIS driven NPP estimates versus terrestrial driven inventory NPP estimates. After addressing stand density, both results are comparable across different scales. As forest management changes stand density, these findings suggest that management issues are important in understanding the observed discrepancies between MODIS and terrestrial NPP.

Invasive alien plant species (IAS) are one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity and the sustainable functioning of ecosystems and mitigating the threat posed by them is therefore of great importance. This study presents the results of a 15-year investigation into how IAS occur within natural forest reserves (NFR): unmanaged forest ecosystems within Austria, concluding that unmanaged forests are not resistant to plant invasions. The study comprised ground vegetation, regeneration, and stand structure surveys. The presence or absence of IAS in different forest types was assessed and the influencing variables for their presence or absence were determined. In addition, the study analysed whether the abundance of IAS has increased at the site level within the past decade. Significant differences in the probability of IAS presences between forest types (photosociological alliances) were found. The results of the study show that natural riparian and floodplain forests are among the forest types most vulnerable to biological invasions, which is reflected in elevation and soil type being determined as the main factors influencing the spread of IAS in unmanaged forests. The results of this study may be useful for persons responsible for sustainable forest management programmes or for managing forested areas within national parks. They provide a case study on non-intervention forest management policy in order to mitigate the impacts of IAS in protected areas. Forest areas, where IAS begin to spread can be identified, which in turn leads to measures in the early stages of invasion, and to optimise monitoring and control measures for relevant species in Central European forest types.

In 1892 a forest spacing experiment with four different spacing patterns was established with Norway spruce (Picea abies). From 1923 until 1997, when the stand was harvested, diameter, height and height to crown base of in total 4507 trees were measured up to 23 times. The original aim of the experiment during establishment was to analyse short term effects of different spacing patterns. The thinning regime followed state of the art forestry practises. During the observation time of more than 100 years, the individual observers and the measurement technology changed several times. Thus, the raw measurement data contain systematic and unsystematic measurement errors as well as missing data. We developed methods to complete missing data, smoothen implausible developments, and correct measurement errors. The data provided in the present study include spatially explicit individual-tree growth data which can be used to analyse the development of forest stands and its individual trees during one rotation period. The data can be used e.g. to parameterize and validate forest growth and competition models.

Global carbon stocks in forest biomass are decreasing by 1.1 Gt of carbon annually, owing to continued deforestation and forest degradation. Deforestation emissions are partly offset by forest expansion and increases in growing stock primarily in the extra-tropical north. Innovative financial mechanisms would be required to help reducing deforestation. Using a spatially explicit integrated biophysical and socio-economic land use model we estimated the impact of carbon price incentive schemes and payment modalities on deforestation. One payment modality is adding costs for carbon emission, the other is to pay incentives for keeping the forest carbon stock intact. Baseline scenario calculations show that close to 200 mil ha or around 5% of today's forest area will be lost between 2006 and 2025, resulting in a release of additional 17.5 GtC. Today's forest cover will shrink by around 500 million hectares, which is 1/8 of the current forest cover, within the next 100 years. The accumulated carbon release during the next 100 years amounts to 45 GtC, which is 15% of the total carbon stored in forests today. Incentives of 6 US$/tC for vulnerable standing biomass payed every 5 year will bring deforestation down by 50%. This will cause costs of 34 billion US$/year. On the other hand a carbon tax of 12 $/tC harvested forest biomass will also cut deforestation by half. The tax income will, if enforced, decrease from 6 billion US$ in 2005 to 4.3 billion US$ in 2025 and 0.7 billion US$ in 2100 due to decreasing deforestation speed. Avoiding deforestation requires financial mechanisms that make retention of forests economically competitive with the currently often preferred option to seek profits from other land uses. Incentive payments need to be at a very high level to be effective against deforestation. Taxes on the other hand will extract budgetary revenues from the regions which are already poor. A combination of incentives and taxes could turn out to be a viable solution for this problem. Increasing the value of forest land and thereby make it less easily prone to deforestation would act as a strong incentive to increase productivity of agricultural and fuelwood production, which could be supported by revenues generated by the deforestation tax.

Background Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing. Increments and harvests seem to have reached a plateau between 2005 and 2010. One reason for reaching this plateau will be the circumstance that the forests are getting older. High ages have the advantage that they typical show high carbon concentration and the disadvantage that the increment rates are decreasing. It should be investigated how biomass stock, harvests and increments will develop under different climate scenarios and two management scenarios where one is forcing to store high biomass amounts in forests and the other tries to have high increment rates and much harvested wood. Results A management which is maximising standing biomass will raise the stem wood carbon stocks from 30 tC/ha to 50 tC/ha until 2100. A management which is maximising increments will lower the stock to 20 tC/ha until 2100. The estimates for the climate scenarios A1b, B1 and E1 are different but there is much more effect by the management target than by the climate scenario. By maximising increments the harvests are 0.4 tC/ha/year higher than in the management which maximises the standing biomass. The increments until 2040 are close together but around 2100 the increments when maximising standing biomass are approximately 50 % lower than those when maximising increments. Cold regions will benefit from the climate changes in the climate scenarios by showing higher increments. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that forest management should maximise increments, not stocks to be more efficient in sense of climate change mitigation. This is true especially for regions which have already high carbon stocks in forests, what is the case in many regions in Europe. During the time span 2010–2100 the forests of EU27 will absorb additional 1750 million tC if they are managed to maximise increments compared if they are managed to maximise standing biomass. Incentives which will increase the standing biomass beyond the increment optimal biomass should therefore be avoided. Mechanisms which will maximise increments and sustainable harvests need to be developed to have substantial amounts of wood which can be used as substitution of non sustainable materials.

This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario. The RCP8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. Compared to the total set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP8.5 thus corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework and the MESSAGE model for the development of the RCP8.5, we focus in this paper on two important extensions compared to earlier scenarios: 1) the development of spatially explicit air pollution projections, and 2) enhancements in the land-use and land-cover change projections. In addition, we explore scenario variants that use RCP8.5 as a baseline, and assume different degrees of greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce radiative forcing. Based on our modeling framework, we find it technically possible to limit forcing from RCP8.5 to lower levels comparable to the other RCPs (2.6 to 6 W/m 2 ). Our scenario analysis further indicates that climate policy-induced changes of global energy supply and demand may lead to significant co-benefits for other policy priorities, such as local air pollution.