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We present artificial neural networks as a feasible replacement for a mechanistic model of mosquito abundance. We develop a feed-forward neural network, a long short-term memory recurrent neural network, and a gated recurrent unit network. We evaluate the networks in their ability to replicate the spatiotemporal features of mosquito populations predicted by the mechanistic model, and discuss how augmenting the training data with time series that emphasize specific dynamical behaviors affects model performance. We conclude with an outlook on how such equation-free models may facilitate vector control or the estimation of disease risk at arbitrary spatial scales.

We present artificial neural networks as a feasible replacement for a mechanistic model of mosquito abundance. We develop a feed-forward neural network, a long short-term memory recurrent neural network, and a gated recurrent unit network. We evaluate the networks in their ability to replicate the spatiotemporal features of mosquito populations predicted by the mechanistic model, and discuss how augmenting the training data with time series that emphasize specific dynamical behaviors affects model performance. We conclude with an outlook on how such equation-free models may facilitate vector control or the estimation of disease risk at arbitrary spatial scales.

We present a method to convert weather data into probabilistic forecasts of Aedes aegypti abundance. The approach, which relies on the Aedes-AI suite of neural networks, produces weekly point predictions with corresponding uncertainty estimates. Once calibrated on past trap and weather data, the model is designed to use weather forecasts to estimate future trap catches. We demonstrate that when reliable input data are used, the resulting predictions have high skill. This technique may therefore be used to supplement vector surveillance efforts or identify periods of elevated risk for vector-borne disease outbreaks.

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is a measure of atherosclerosis and a well-established predictor of coronary artery disease (CAD) events. Here we describe a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of CAC in 22,400 participants from multiple ancestral groups. We confirmed associations with four known loci and identified two additional loci associated with CAC ( and ), with evidence of significant associations in replication analyses for both novel loci. Functional assays of and in human vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs) demonstrate that is a promoter of VSMC calcification and VSMC phenotype switching from a contractile to a calcifying or osteogenic phenotype. Furthermore, we show that the association of variants near with reduced CAC is likely explained by reduced expression with the G allele of enhancer variant rs5982944. Our study highlights ARSE as an important contributor to atherosclerotic vascular calcification, and a potential drug target for vascular calcific disease.