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Predicting wildfire under future conditions is complicated by complex interrelated drivers operating across large spatial scales. Annual area burned (AAB) is a useful index of global wildfire activity. Current and antecedent seasonal climatic conditions, and the timing of snowpack melt, have been suggested as important drivers of AAB. As climate warms, seasonal climate and snowpack co-vary in intricate ways, influencing fire at continental and sub-continental scales. We used independent records of seasonal climate and snow cover duration (last date of permanent snowpack, LDPS) and cell-based Structural Equation Models (SEM) to separate direct (climatic) and indirect (snow cover) effects on relative changes in AAB under future climatic scenarios across western and boreal North America. To isolate seasonal climate variables with the greatest effect on AAB, we ran multiple regression models of log-transformed AAB on seasonal climate variables and LDPS. We used the results of multiple regressions to project future AAB using GCM ensemble climate variables and LDPS, and validated model predictions with recent AAB trends. Direct influences of spring and winter temperatures on AAB are larger and more widespread than the indirect effect mediated by changes in LDPS in most areas. Despite significant warming trends and reductions in snow cover duration, projected responses of AAB to early-mid 21st century are heterogeneous across the continent. Changes in AAB range from strongly increasing (one order of magnitude increases in AAB) to moderately decreasing (more than halving of baseline AAB). Annual wildfire area burned in coming decades is likely to be highly geographically heterogeneous, reflecting interacting regional and seasonal climate drivers of fire occurrence and spread.

1. In the context of ongoing climatic warming, forest landscapes face increasing risk of conversion to non-forest vegetation through alteration of their fire regimes and their post-fire recovery dynamics. However, this pressure could be amplified or dampened, depending on how fire-driven changes to vegetation feed back to alter the extent or behaviour of subsequent fires. 2. Here we develop a mathematical model to formalize understanding of how firevegetation feedbacks and the time to forest recovery following high-severity (i.e. stand-replacing) fire affect the extent and stability of forest cover across landscapes facing altered fire regimes. We evaluate responses to increasing burn rates while varying the direction (negative vs. positive) of fire-vegetation feedbacks under a continuum of values for feedback strength and post-fire recovery time. In doing so, we determine how interactions among these variables produce thresholds and tipping points in landscape responses to changing fire regimes. 3. Where the early-seral vegetation was less fire-prone than older forests, negative feedbacks limited the reductions in forest cover in response to higher fire frequency or slower forest recovery. By contrast, positive feedbacks (more flammable early-seral vegetation) produced a tipping point beyond which increases in burn rates or a slowing of forest recovery drove extensive forest loss. 4. With negative feedbacks, the rates of forest loss and expansion in response to variation in fire frequency were similar. However, where feedbacks were positive, the conversion from predominantly forested to non-forested conditions in response to increasing fire frequency was faster than the re-expansion of forest cover following a return to the initial burn rate. Strengthening the positive feedbacks increased this asymmetry. 5. Synthesis. Our analyses elucidate how fire-vegetation feedbacks and post-fire recovery rates interact to affect the trajectories and rates of landscape response to altered fire regimes. We illustrate the vulnerability of ecosystems with positive fire-vegetation feedbacks to climate change-driven increases in fire activity, especially where post-fire recovery is slow. Although negative feedbacks initially provide resistance to forest loss with increasing burn rates, this resistance is eventually overwhelmed with sufficient increases to burn rates relative to recovery times.

Widespread synchronous wildfires driven by climatic variation, such as those that swept western North America during 1996, 2000, and 2002, can result in major environmental and societal impacts. Understanding relationships between continental-scale patterns of drought and modes of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) may explain how interannual to multidecadal variability in SSTs drives fire at continental scales. We used local wildfire chronologies reconstructed from fire scars on tree rings across western North America and independent reconstructions of SST developed from tree-ring widths at other sites to examine the relationships of multicentury patterns of climate and fire synchrony. From 33,039 annually resolved fire-scar dates at 238 sites (the largest paleofire record yet assembled), we examined forest fires at regional and subcontinental scales. Since 1550 CE, drought and forest fires covaried across the West, but in a manner contingent on SST modes. During certain phases of ENSO and PDO, fire was synchronous within broad subregions and sometimes asynchronous among those regions. In contrast, fires were most commonly synchronous across the West during warm phases of the AMO. ENSO and PDO were the main drivers of high-frequency variation in fire (interannual to decadal), whereas the AMO conditionally changed the strength and spatial influence of ENSO and PDO on wildfire occurrence at multidecadal scales. A current warming trend in AMO suggests that we may expect an increase in widespread, synchronous fires across the western U.S. in coming decades.

Although ecological restoration is widely used to combat environmental degradation, very few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of this approach. We examine the potential impact of forest restoration on the value of multiple ecosystem services across four dryland areas in Latin America, by estimating the net value of ecosystem service benefits under different reforestation scenarios. The values of selected ecosystem services were mapped under each scenario, supported by the use of a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics. We explored the economic potential of a change in land use from livestock grazing to restored native forest using different discount rates and performed a cost—benefit analysis of three restoration scenarios. Results show that passive restoration is cost-effective for all study areas on the basis of the services analyzed, whereas the benefits from active restoration are generally outweighed by the relatively high costs involved. These findings were found to be relatively insensitive to discount rate but were sensitive to the market value of carbon. Substantial variation in values was recorded between study areas, demonstrating that ecosystem service values are strongly context specific. However, spatial analysis enabled localized areas of net benefits to be identified, indicating the value of this approach for identifying the relative costs and benefits of restoration interventions across a landscape.

Climate forcings determine the episodic occurrence of local climate anomalies that trigger the occurrence of masting events (massive, synchronized and intermittent seed production by perennial plants). This suggests some kind of phase-locking of the reproductive cycles of individual plants to the climatological cycle, thus further reinforcing reproductive synchrony and the Moran effect. We propose a dendrochronological approach to filter out the long-term direct effects of climate on tree radial growth and temporal reproductive effort by sex by using actual trees as climatic controls to reconstruct masting events in Araucaria araucana , a long-lived dioecious masting conifer. In this way, we developed a multi-century-long tree masting reconstruction for South America using female–male radial growth determined by differences in timing and magnitude of the reproductive effort between sexes. We provide evidence for a regional synchronizing mechanism of masting which is drought induced by strong cold La Niña phases of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplified by the positive phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) that activate both female and male cone bud formation during year −2 before seed fall; that is, a long-term phase-locking between the ENSO cycle and the reproductive cycle modulated by the strength of SAM. In addition, our regional index of masting frequency showed its maximum during the late twentieth century relative to the previous centuries, suggesting that the species is currently at its maximum masting frequency concurrent with a period of enhanced temperature and drought conditions in Patagonia, probably driven by the positive phase of the SAM. This study establishes the effect of ENSO cycles modulated by SAM in South America on a native conifer over multiple centuries and the reproductive cycle of individual plants on a regional scale in line with climate events.

In view of global climate change, it is important to understand the responses of tree species to climate changes in the past. Combinations of phylogeographic analysis of genetic evidence, coupled with species distribution models (SDMs), are improving our understanding on this subject. We combined SDMs and microsatellite data from populations of the entire range of Austrocedrus chilensis, a dominant mesotherm (cold-sensitive) conifer of dryland forests of the southern Andes, to test the hypothesis of long-distance postglacial migration from northern and warmer refugia at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The SDM indicated suitable conditions for Austrocedrus in northern Chile (western) at the LGM and largely unsuitable conditions in Argentina (eastern). Population genetic diversity and effective population sizes within populations decreased southward along the Andes, consistent with the hypothesis of long-distance dispersal from a northern refugium. Results support the hypothesis of one (or a few) warmer (low latitude) refugia in Chile for Austrocedrus. On balance, the evidence suggests that in contrast to cold-tolerant tree taxa with the capacity to fast-track postglacial warming thanks to local refugia, cold-sensitive species might have undergone long-distance range expansion, lagging behind progressive climate change throughout the Holocene.

Aim To investigate the differential effects of position within gaps, coarse woody debris and understorey cover on tree seedling survival in canopy gaps in two old-growth Nothofagus pumilio (Poepp. & Endl.) Krasser forests and the response of this species to gaps in two forests located at opposite extremes of a steep rainfall gradient. Location Nahuel Huapi National Park, at 41° S in north-western Patagonia, Argentina. Methods In both study sites, seedlings were transplanted to experimental plots in gaps in three different positions, with two types of substrate (coarse woody debris or forest floor), and with and without removal of understorey vegetation. Survival of seedlings was monitored during two growing seasons. Soil moisture and direct solar radiation were measured once in mid-summer. Seedling aerial biomass was estimated at the end of the experiment. Results Mid-summer soil water potential was lowest in the centre of gaps, in plots where the understorey had been removed, and highest at the northern edges of gaps. Direct incoming radiation was highest in gap centres and southern edges, and lowest at northern edges. Seedling mortality was highest in gap centres, in both sites. Coarse woody debris had a positive effect on seedling survival during summer in the mesic forest and during winter in the xeric forest. The removal of understorey cover had negative effects in gap centres during summer. Seedling final aerial biomass was positively affected by understorey removal and by soil substrate in both sites. In the dry forest gaps, seedling growth was highest in northern edges, whereas it was highest in gap centres in the mesic forest. Overall growth was positively related to survival in the xeric forest, and negatively related in the mesic forest. Main conclusions Survival and growth were facilitated by the shade of gap-surrounding trees only in the xeric forest. Understorey vegetation of both forests facilitated seedling survival in exposed microsites but competed with seedling growth. Nurse logs were an important substrate for seedling establishment in both forests; however, causes of this pattern differed between forests. Water availability positively controls seedling survival and growth in the xeric forest while in the mesic forest, survival and growth are differentially controlled by water and light availability, respectively. These two contrasting old-growth forests, separated by a relatively short distance along a steep rainfall gradient, had different yet unexpected microenvironmental controls on N. pumilio seedling survival and growth. These results underscore the importance of defining microscale limiting factors of tree recruitment in the context of large-scale spatial variation in resources.

In the northern Colorado Front Range, fire suppression during the 20th century is believed to have created a high hazard of catastrophic fire in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. Since the early 1990s, resource managers have increased the use of prescribed fires to re-create fire regimes and forest structures similar to those of the pre-Euro-American settlement period in order both to reduce fire hazard and to improve forest health. To improve understanding of historical fire regimes, we conducted a study of fire history along an elevational gradient from \\sim1830 to 2800 m in ponderosa pine forests in the northern Front Range. Fire-scar dates were determined from 525 partial cross sections from living and dead trees at 41 sample sites. Fire frequencies and fire intervals were analyzed in relation to changes in human activities and interannual climatic variability as recorded in instrumental climatic records and tree-ring proxy records. Prior to modern fire suppression, the low elevation, open ponderosa pine forests of the northern Front Range were characterized by frequent surface fires, similar in frequency to many other ponderosa pine ecosystems in the West. In contrast, in higher elevation forests (above ∼2400 m) where ponderosa pine is mixed with Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), the fire regime was characterized by a much lower fire frequency and included extensive stand-replacing fires as well as surface fires. In the mid-1800s there was a marked increase in fire occurrence that can be related both to Euro-American settlement and increased climatic variability. This episode of increased fire left a legacy of dense, even-aged stands in higher elevation ponderosa pine forests, whereas increased stand densities in low elevation forests are attributed mainly to fire exclusion during the 20th century. Warmer and drier spring-summers, indicated in instrumental climatic records (1873-1995) and in tree-ring proxy records of climate (1600-1983), are strongly associated with years of widespread fire. Years of widespread fire also tend to be preceded two to four years by wetter than average springs that increase the production of fine fuels. Alternation of wet and dry periods over time periods of 2-5 years is conducive to fire spread and is strongly linked to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The warm (El Nino) phase of ENSO is associated with greater moisture availability during spring that results in a peak of fire occurrence several years following El Nino events. Conversely, dry springs associated with La Nina events were followed by more widespread fire during the same year. The 1600-1920 fire-scar record indicates that individual years during which high percentages of the 41 sample sites synchronously recorded fire have occurred at least several times per century. The association of these years of widespread fire with very strong ENSO events demonstrates the importance of ENSO-related climatic variabililty in creating extreme fire hazard at a landscape scale.

Despite important recent advances in modeling current and future global fire activity in relation to biophysical predictors there remain important uncertainties about finer-scale spatial heterogeneity of fire and especially about human influences which are typically assessed at coarse-spatial resolutions. The purpose of the current study is to quantify the influence of biophysical and anthropogenic variables on the spatial distribution of wildfire activity between 1984 and 2010 over an extensive southern Patagonian-Andean region from ca. 43° to 53° S extending from coastal rainforests to xeric woodland and steppe. We used satellite imagery to map all detectable fires >5 ha from 1984 to 2010 in four study areas (each of 13,100 to 36,635 km 2 ) and field checked 65 of these burns for accuracy of burned vegetation class and fire perimeters. Then, we used the MaxEnt modeling technique to assess the relationships of wildfire distributions to biophysical and human environmental variables in each of the four regions. The 232 fires >5 ha mapped in the four study areas accounted for an area of 1,314 km 2 indicating that at least 1.8% of the total area burned between 1984 and 2010. In general, areas with intermediate productivity levels (e.g., shrublands) have higher fire probability compared with areas of low and high productivity levels, such as steppe and wet forests, respectively. There is a marked contrast in the flammability of broad vegetation classes in determining fire activity at a regional scale, as well as a strong spatial relationship of wildfires to anthropogenic variables. The juxtaposition of fire-resistant tall forests with fire-prone shrublands and woodlands creates the potential for positive feedbacks from human-set fires to gradually increase the flammability of extensive landscapes through repeated burning. Distance to roads and settlements were also strong predictors, suggesting that fire in all regions is ignition-limited. However, these anthropogenic predictors influenced probability of fire differently among study regions depending on their main land-use practices and their past and present socioeconomic contexts.

Fire histories were compared between the south-western United States and northern Patagonia, Argentina using both documentary records (1914-87 and 1938-96, respectively) and tree-ring reconstructions over the past several centuries. The two regions share similar fire-climate relation-ships and similar relationships of climatic anomalies to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In both regions, El Nino events coincide with above-average cool season precipitation and increased moisture availability to plants during the growing season. Conversely, La Nina events correspond with drought conditions. Monthly patterns of ENSO indicators (southern oscillation indices and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures) preceding years of exceptionally widespread fires are highly similar in both regions during the 20th century. Major fire years tend to follow the switching from El Nino to La Nina conditions. El Nino conditions enhance the production of fine fuels, which when desiccated by La Nina conditions create conditions for widespread wildfires. Decadal-scale patterns of fire occurrence since the mid-17th century are highly similar in both regions. A period of decreased fire occurrence in both regions from c. 1780-1830 coincides with decreased amplitude and/or frequency of ENSO events. The interhemispheric synchrony of fire regimes in these two distant regions is tentatively interpreted to be a response to decadal-scale changes in ENSO activity. The ENSO-fire relationships of the south-western USA and northern Patagonia document the importance of high-frequency climatic variation to fire hazard. Thus, in addition to long-term trends in mean climatic conditions, multi-decadal scale changes in year-to-year variability need to be considered in assessments of the potential influence of climatic change on fire regimes.