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Adaptation strategies to climate change need information about present and future climatic conditions. However, next to scenarios about the future climate, scenarios about future vulnerability are essential, since also changing societal conditions fundamentally determine adaptation needs. At the international and national level, first initiatives for developing vulnerability scenarios and so-called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) have been undertaken. Most of these scenarios, however, do not provide sufficient information for local scenarios and local climate risk management. There is an urgent need to develop scenarios for vulnerability at the local scale in order to complement climate change scenarios. Heat stress is seen as a key challenge in cities in the context of climate change and further urban growth. Based on the research project ZURES (ZURES 2020 website), the paper presents a new method for human vulnerability scenarios to heat stress at the very local scale for growing medium-sized cities. In contrast to global models that outline future scenarios mostly with a country-level resolution, we show a new method on how to develop spatially specific scenario information for different districts within cities, starting from the planned urban development and expansion. The method provides a new opportunity to explore how different urban development strategies and housing policies influence future human exposure and vulnerability. Opportunities and constraints of the approach are revealed. Finally, we discuss how these scenarios can inform future urban development and risk management strategies and how these could complement more global or national approaches.

This paper identifies latent group structures in the effect of motherhood on employment by employing the C-Lasso, a recently developed, purely data-driven classification method. Moreover, I assess how the introduction of the generous German parental benefit reform in 2007 affects the different cluster groups by taking advantage of an identification strategy that combines the sharp regression discontinuity design and hypothesis testing of predicted employment probabilities. The C-Lasso approach enables heterogeneous employment effects across mothers, which are classified into an a priori unknown number of cluster groups, each with its own group-specific effect. Using novel German administrative data, the C-Lasso identifies three different cluster groups pre- and post-reform. My findings reveal marked unobserved heterogeneity in maternal employment and that the reform affects the identified cluster groups' employment patterns differently.

This paper identifies latent group structures in the effect of motherhood on employment by employing the C-Lasso, a recently developed, purely data-driven classification method. Moreover, I assess how the introduction of the generous German parental benefit reform in 2007 affects the different cluster groups by taking advantage of an identification strategy that combines the sharp regression discontinuity design and hypothesis testing of predicted employment probabilities. The C-Lasso approach enables heterogeneous employment effects across mothers, which are classified into an a priori unknown number of cluster groups, each with its own group-specific effect. Using novel German administrative data, the C-Lasso identifies three different cluster groups pre- and post-reform. My findings reveal marked unobserved heterogeneity in maternal employment and that the reform affects the identified cluster groups' employment patterns differently.

We introduce tools for controlled variable selection to economists. In particular, we apply a recently introduced aggregation scheme for false discovery rate (FDR) control to German administrative data to determine the parts of the individual employment histories that are relevant for the career outcomes of women. Our results suggest that career outcomes can be predicted based on a small set of variables, such as daily earnings, wage increases in combination with a high level of education, employment status, and working experience.

We introduce tools for controlled variable selection to economists. In particular, we apply a recently introduced aggregation scheme for false discovery rate (FDR) control to German administrative data to determine the parts of the individual employment histories that are relevant for the career outcomes of women. Our results suggest that career outcomes can be predicted based on a small set of variables, such as daily earnings, wage increases in combination with a high level of education, employment status, and working experience.

This is a three-week minicourse for juniors designed to develop awareness & understanding of the Eskimo. Studied are the culture's mythology, poetry, autobiographies, & critical reading & writing skills. Materials include P. Freuchen's Book of the Eskimos, & E. L. Keithahn's Alaskan Igloo Tales. The film \"Nanook of the North\" & teacher lectures will enhance the experience. T. Lamb

Iron (Fe) is an essential trace element for life. In the ocean, Fe can be exceptionally scarce and thus biolimiting or extremely enriched causing microbial stress. The ability of hydrothermal plume microbes to counteract unfavorable Fe-concentrations up to 10 mM is investigated through experiments. While Campylobacterota ( Sulfurimonas ) are prominent in a diverse community at low to intermediate Fe-concentrations, the highest 10 mM Fe-level is phylogenetically less diverse and dominated by the SUP05 clade (Gammaproteobacteria) , a species known to be genetically well equipped to strive in high-Fe environments. In all incubations, Fe-binding ligands were produced in excess of the corresponding Fe-concentration level, possibly facilitating biological Fe-uptake in low-Fe incubations and detoxification in high-Fe incubations. The diversity of Fe-containing formulae among dissolved organics (SPE-DOM) decreased with increasing Fe-concentration, which may reflect toxic conditions of the high-Fe treatments. A DOM-derived degradation index (I DEG ) points to a degradation magnitude (microbial activity) that decreases with Fe and/or selective Fe-DOM coagulation. Our results show that some hydrothermal microbes (especially Gammaproteobacteria) have the capacity to thrive even at unfavorably high Fe-concentrations. These ligand-producing microbes could hence play a key role in keeping Fe in solution, particularly in environments, where Fe precipitation dominates and toxic conditions prevail.

Hydrothermal vents are a source of many trace metals to the oceans. Compared to mid-ocean ridges, hydrothermal vent systems at arcs occur in shallower water depth and are much more diverse in fluid composition, resulting in highly variable water column trace metal concentrations. However, only few studies have focused on trace metal dynamics in hydrothermal plumes at volcanic arcs. During R/V Sonne cruise SO253 in 2016/2017, hydrothermal plumes from two hydrothermally active submarine volcanoes along the Kermadec arc in the Southwest Pacific Ocean were sampled: (1) Macauley, a magmatic dominated vent site located in water depths between 300 and 680 m, and (2) Brothers, located between 1,200 and 1,600 m water depth, where hydrothermalism influenced by water rock interactions and magmatically influenced vent sites occur near each other. Surface currents estimated from satellite-altimeter derived currents and direct measurements at the sites using lowered acoustic Doppler current profilers indicate the oceanic regime is dominated by mesoscale eddies. At both volcanoes, results indicated strong plumes of dissolved trace metals, notably Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, La, and Pb, some of which are essential micronutrients. Dissolved metal concentrations commonly decreased with distance from the vents, as to be expected, however, certain element/Fe ratios increased, suggesting a higher solubility of these elements and/or their stronger stabilization (e.g., for Zn compared to Fe). Our data indicate that at the magmatically influenced Macauley and Brothers cone sites, the transport of trace metals is strongly controlled by sulfide nanoparticles, while at the Brothers NW caldera wall site iron oxyhydroxides seem to dominate the trace metal transport over sulfides. Solution stabilization of trace metals by organic complexation appears to compete with particle adsorption processes. As well as extending the generally sparse data set for hydrothermal plumes at volcanic arc systems, our study presents the first data on several dissolved trace metals in the Macauley system, and extends the existing plume dataset of Brothers volcano. Our data further indicate that chemical signatures and processes at arc volcanoes are highly diverse, even on small scales.

Study objectivesTLD-1 is a novel pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD) formulation aiming to optimise the PLD efficacy-toxicity ratio. We aimed to characterise TLD-1’s population pharmacokinetics using non-compartmental analysis and nonlinear mixed-effects modelling.MethodsThe PK of TLD-1 was analysed by performing a non-compartmental analysis of longitudinal doxorubicin plasma concentration measurements obtained from a clinical trial in 30 patients with advanced solid tumours across a 4.5-fold dose range. Furthermore, a joint parent-metabolite PK model of doxorubicinentrapped, doxorubicinfree, and metabolite doxorubicinol was developed. Interindividual and interoccasion variability around the typical PK parameters and potential covariates to explain parts of this variability were explored.ResultsMedians ± standard deviations of dose-normalised doxorubicinentrapped+free Cmax and AUC0−∞ were 0.342 ± 0.134 mg/L and 40.1 ± 18.9 mg·h/L, respectively. The median half-life (95 h) was 23.5 h longer than the half-life of currently marketed PLD. The novel joint parent-metabolite model comprised a one-compartment model with linear release (doxorubicinentrapped), a two-compartment model with linear elimination (doxorubicinfree), and a one-compartment model with linear elimination for doxorubicinol. Body surface area on the volumes of distribution for free doxorubicin was the only significant covariate.ConclusionThe population PK of TLD-1, including its release and main metabolite, were successfully characterised using non-compartmental and compartmental analyses. Based on its long half-life, TLD-1 presents a promising candidate for further clinical development. The PK characteristics form the basis to investigate TLD-1 exposure-response (i.e., clinical efficacy) and exposure-toxicity relationships in the future. Once such relationships have been established, the developed population PK model can be further used in model-informed precision dosing strategies.Clinical trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov–NCT03387917–January 2, 2018