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"Knight, C. Gregory"
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Fuzzy decision analysis for integrated environmental vulnerability assessment of the Mid-Atlantic region
A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators was developed. This was a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography of the Mid-Atlantic region, we were able to point out areas that were in relatively poor condition and/or vulnerable to future deterioration. The method offered an easy and comprehensive way to combine the strengths of fuzzy set theory and the AHP for ecological assessment. Furthermore, the suggested method can serve as a building block for the evaluation of environmental policies.
Journal Article
Integrated Environmental Assessment of the Mid-Atlantic Region with Analytical Network Process
A decision analysis method for integrating environmental indicators was developed. This was a combination of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Analytic Network Process (ANP). Being able to take into account the interdependency among variables, the method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography of the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States, we were able to point out areas which were in relatively poor condition and/or vulnerable to future deterioration regarding various environmental aspects. The method offered an easy and comprehensive way to combine the strengths of conventional multivariate statistics (PCA) and decision-making science tool (ANP) for integrated environmental assessment.
Journal Article
Globalization and global change research
The kinds of interaction using global communication systems described here will not be news to many readers. The changes brought during the last decade have culminated in computer communications that now seem routine. It is important, however, to document the revolution the global communications revolution has had for collaborative international research in geography as a waymarker on the road to even greater changes. Clearly, ability to access and use internet resources is not ubiquitous - the linkages to and from Bulgaria are slow; they are limited by the language abilities on both sides and limited by the availability of equipment for access. Nevertheless, one can dream of a future of research with even greater enhancement through the internet: virtual reality may allow us to visit field sites for short periods without travel; conferencing will become routine; software will translate spoken as well as written languages; hardware and software will become increasingly powerful and less expensive.
Journal Article
Sensitivity Analysis of Aggregated Indices for Integrated Assessment with a Case Study of the Mid-Atlantic Region
Environmental indicators are often aggregated into a single index for various purposes in environmental studies. Aggregated indices derived from the same data set can differ, usually because the aggregated indices' sensitivities are not thoroughly analyzed. Furthermore, if a sensitivity analysis is carried out, it is not presented in a transparent fashion to policy decision-makers. This paper presents a method of generating various aggregated environmental indices and analyzing their sensitivities via the use of the fuzzy set concept. Results show that several insights into the environmental conditions of the study area (e.g., the distribution of good or bad values of indicators at a watershed and or across the region) can be revealed in the sensitivity analysis of aggregated indices.
Journal Article
Self-Organizing Maps for Integrated Environmental Assessment of the Mid-Atlantic Region
A new method has been developed to perform environmental assessment at regional scale. This involves a combination of a self-organizing map (SOM) neural network and principal component analysis (PCA). The method is capable of clustering ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting relative cumulative environmental impacts of multiple factors across a large region. Using data on land-cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography of the Mid-Atlantic region, the method was able to indicate areas that are in relatively poor environmental condition or vulnerable to future deterioration. Combining the strengths of SOM with those of PCA, the method offers an easy and useful way to perform a regional environmental assessment. Compared with traditional clustering and ranking approaches, the described method has considerable advantages, such as providing a valuable means for visualizing complex multidimensional environmental data at multiple scales and offering a single assessment or ranking needed for a regional environmental assessment while still facilitating the opportunity for more detailed analyses.
Journal Article
Water resource impacts of climate change in southwestern Bulgaria
This study assesses the regional impact of climate change on runoff in a mountainous region of southwestern Bulgaria. A GIS-based distributed hydrologic model and two climate change scenarios -HadCM2 and CCC -were employed for years around 2025 and 2085. Results from both scenarios demonstrate the basin's sensitivity of runoff to climate change, which produce significant spatial and temporal changes in the basin's water yield with maximum runoff shift into early spring and further decreases in summer runoff. There could be no reduction in mean annual runoff, except under the Hadley scenario by 2085. Changes in the magnitude of mean monthly and peak flow are associated with early snowmelt and a reduction in snow cover in spring. Increases in spatial variability of runoff reflect the basin's complex physiographic characteristics. The increase of spatial and temporal variability in runoff points to different strategies for future water resource management.
Journal Article
Drought in Bulgaria and atmospheric synoptic conditions over Europe
Drought in Bulgaria is analyzed from the multiple viewpoints of statistical occurrence, spatial patterns, and synoptic conditions. A new index of drought, the SD (spatial-dryness) index, characterizes drought by both intensity and spatial extent. The occurrence of the SD index is analyzed using global gridded data sets. Examination of transitional probabilities of multiple months and years with drought occurrence suggests persistence is sufficiently frequent to be important for climate-related environmental planning. Finally, it is shown that specific seasonal synoptic patterns are associated with wet and dry conditions in Bulgaria.
Journal Article
Climate change research in central and eastern Europe
Climate change presents both threats and opportunities to the nations and peoples of central and eastern Europe. National and international programs are directly addressing climate change, and other programs speak to natural resource and environmental quality issues that will have significant effects on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. This paper explores examples of ongoing climate change activity in the region, setting a broad context for the subsequent papers in this volume of GeoJournal.
Journal Article