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116 result(s) for "Kochan, Nicole A"
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A comparison of machine learning methods for survival analysis of high-dimensional clinical data for dementia prediction
Data collected from clinical trials and cohort studies, such as dementia studies, are often high-dimensional, censored, heterogeneous and contain missing information, presenting challenges to traditional statistical analysis. There is an urgent need for methods that can overcome these challenges to model this complex data. At present there is no cure for dementia and no treatment that can successfully change the course of the disease. Machine learning models that can predict the time until a patient develops dementia are important tools in helping understand dementia risks and can give more accurate results than traditional statistical methods when modelling high-dimensional, heterogeneous, clinical data. This work compares the performance and stability of ten machine learning algorithms, combined with eight feature selection methods, capable of performing survival analysis of high-dimensional, heterogeneous, clinical data. We developed models that predict survival to dementia using baseline data from two different studies. The Sydney Memory and Ageing Study (MAS) is a longitudinal cohort study of 1037 participants, aged 70–90 years, that aims to determine the effects of ageing on cognition. The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) is a longitudinal study aimed at identifying biomarkers for the early detection and tracking of Alzheimer's disease. Using the concordance index as a measure of performance, our models achieve maximum performance values of 0.82 for MAS and 0.93 For ADNI.
Participant and informant memory-specific cognitive complaints predict future decline and incident dementia: Findings from the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study
Subjective Cognitive Complaints (SCCs) may represent one of the earliest stages of preclinical dementia. The objective of the present study was to extend previous work by our group to examine the relationship between participant-reported and informant-reported memory and non-memory SCCs, cognitive decline and incident dementia, over a six-year period. Participants were 873 community dwelling older adults (Mage = 78.65, SD = 4.79) without dementia and 843 informants (close friends or family) from the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study. Comprehensive neuropsychological testing and diagnostic assessments were carried out at baseline and biennially for six years. Linear mixed models and Cox proportional hazard models were performed to determine the association of SCCs, rate of cognitive decline and risk of incident dementia, controlling demographics and covariates of mood and personality. Participant and informant memory-specific SCCs were associated with rate of global cognitive decline; for individual cognitive domains, participant memory SCCs predicted decline for language, while informant memory SCCs predicted decline for executive function and memory. Odds of incident dementia were associated with baseline participant memory SCCs and informant memory and non-memory SCCs in partially adjusted models. In fully adjusted models, only informant SCCs were associated with increased risk of incident dementia. Self-reported memory-specific cognitive complaints are associated with decline in global cognition over 6-years and may be predictive of incident dementia, particularly if the individual is depressed or anxious and has increased neuroticism or decreased openness. Further, if and where possible, informants should be sought and asked to report on their perceptions of the individual's memory ability and any memory-specific changes that they have noticed as these increase the index of diagnostic suspicion.
Factors Predicting Reversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Normal Cognitive Functioning: A Population-Based Study
Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is associated with an increased risk of developing dementia. However, many individuals diagnosed with MCI are found to have reverted to normal cognition on follow-up. This study investigated factors predicting or associated with reversion from MCI to normal cognition. Our analyses considered 223 participants (48.9% male) aged 71-89 years, drawn from the prospective, population-based Sydney Memory and Ageing Study. All were diagnosed with MCI at baseline and subsequently classified with either normal cognition or repeat diagnosis of MCI after two years (a further 11 participants who progressed from MCI to dementia were excluded). Associations with reversion were investigated for (1) baseline factors that included diagnostic features, personality, neuroimaging, sociodemographics, lifestyle, and physical and mental health; (2) longitudinal change in potentially modifiable factors. There were 66 reverters to normal cognition and 157 non-reverters (stable MCI). Regression analyses identified diagnostic features as most predictive of prognosis, with reversion less likely in participants with multiple-domain MCI (p = 0.011), a moderately or severely impaired cognitive domain (p = 0.002 and p = 0.006), or an informant-based memory complaint (p = 0.031). Reversion was also less likely for participants with arthritis (p = 0.037), but more likely for participants with higher complex mental activity (p = 0.003), greater openness to experience (p = 0.041), better vision (p = 0.014), better smelling ability (p = 0.040), or larger combined volume of the left hippocampus and left amygdala (p<0.040). Reversion was also associated with a larger drop in diastolic blood pressure between baseline and follow-up (p = 0.026). Numerous factors are associated with reversion from MCI to normal cognition. Assessing these factors could facilitate more accurate prognosis of individuals with MCI. Participation in cognitively enriching activities and efforts to lower blood pressure might promote reversion.
Plasma Apolipoprotein Levels Are Associated with Cognitive Status and Decline in a Community Cohort of Older Individuals
Apolipoproteins have recently been implicated in the etiology of Alzheimer's disease (AD). In particular, Apolipoprotein J (ApoJ or clusterin) has been proposed as a biomarker of the disease at the pre-dementia stage. We examined a group of apolipoproteins, including ApoA1, ApoA2, ApoB, ApoC3, ApoE, ApoH and ApoJ, in the plasma of a longitudinal community based cohort. 664 subjects (257 with Mild Cognitive Impairment [MCI] and 407 with normal cognition), mean age 78 years, from the Sydney Memory and Aging Study (MAS) were followed up over two years. Plasma apolipoprotein levels at baseline (Wave 1) were measured using a multiplex bead fluorescence immunoassay technique. At Wave 1, MCI subjects had lower levels of ApoA1, ApoA2 and ApoH, and higher levels of ApoE and ApoJ, and a higher ApoB/ApoA1 ratio. Carriers of the apolipoprotein E ε4 allele had significantly lower levels of plasma ApoE, ApoC3 and ApoH and a significantly higher level of ApoB. Global cognitive scores were correlated positively with ApoH and negatively with ApoJ levels. ApoJ and ApoE levels were correlated negatively with grey matter volume and positively with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) volume on MRI. Lower ApoA1, ApoA2 and ApoH levels, and higher ApoB/ApoA1 ratio, increased the risk of cognitive decline over two years in cognitively normal individuals. ApoA1 was the most significant predictor of decline. These associations remained after statistically controlling for lipid profile. Higher ApoJ levels predicted white matter atrophy over two years. Elderly individuals with MCI have abnormal apolipoprotein levels, which are related to cognitive function and volumetric MRI measures cross-sectionally and are predictive of cognitive impairment in cognitively normal subjects. ApoA1, ApoH and ApoJ are potential plasma biomarkers of cognitive decline in non-demented elderly individuals.
Mild Cognitive Impairment as a Predictor of Falls in Community-Dwelling Older People
Incidence of falls in people with cognitive impairment with or without a formal diagnosis of dementia is estimated to be twice that of cognitively intact older adults. This study aimed to investigate whether mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is associated with falls in older people. Prospective cohort study. Community sample, Sydney Memory and Ageing Study. A total of 419 nondemented community-dwelling adults, age 70–90 years. A comprehensive neuropsychological test battery measuring four cognitive domains provided classification being with or without MCI on the basis of objective published criteria. Assessments of medical, physiologic, and psychological measures were also performed. Fallers were defined as people who had at least one injurious fall or at least two noninjurious falls during a 12-month follow-up period. Of the participants, 342 (81.6%) had normal cognitive functioning, 58 (13.8%) had nonamnestic MCI, and 19 (4.5%) had amnestic MCI. People with MCI performed worse than people without MCI in measures of general health and balance. Logistic regression analyses showed that fall risk was significantly greater in people with MCI (odds ratio [OR]: 1.72, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.03–2.89). This association was mainly apparent when the analysis was restricted to those with nonamnestic MCI (OR: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.11–3.53), where the relationship was primarily explained by impaired executive functioning (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.02–1.59). The findings indicate that objectively defined MCI is an independent risk factor for injurious or multiple falls in a representative sample of community-dwelling older people. The presence of nonamnestic MCI, based primarily on executive function, was found to be an important factor in increasing fall risk.
Microstructural White Matter Changes, Not Hippocampal Atrophy, Detect Early Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment
Alzheimer's disease (AD) is generally considered to be characterized by pathology in gray matter of the brain, but convergent evidence suggests that white matter degradation also plays a vital role in its pathogenesis. The evolution of white matter deterioration and its relationship with gray matter atrophy remains elusive in amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI), a prodromal stage of AD. We studied 155 cognitively normal (CN) and 27 'late' aMCI individuals with stable diagnosis over 2 years, and 39 'early' aMCI individuals who had converted from CN to aMCI at 2-year follow up. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) tractography was used to reconstruct six white matter tracts three limbic tracts critical for episodic memory function - the fornix, the parahippocampal cingulum, and the uncinate fasciculus; two cortico-cortical association fiber tracts - superior longitudinal fasciculus and inferior longitudinal fasciculus; and one projection fiber tract - corticospinal tract. Microstructural integrity as measured by fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), radial diffusivity (RD) and axial diffusivity (AxD) was assessed for these tracts. Compared with CN, late aMCI had lower white matter integrity in the fornix, the parahippocampal cingulum, and the uncinate fasciculus, while early aMCI showed white matter damage in the fornix. In addition, fornical measures were correlated with hippocampal atrophy in late aMCI, whereas abnormality of the fornix in early aMCI occurred in the absence of hippocampal atrophy and did not correlate with hippocampal volumes. Limbic white matter tracts are preferentially affected in the early stages of cognitive dysfunction. Microstructural degradation of the fornix preceding hippocampal atrophy may serve as a novel imaging marker for aMCI at an early stage.
Stronger bilateral functional connectivity of the frontoparietal control network in near-centenarians and centenarians without dementia
Centenarians without dementia can be considered as a model of successful ageing and resistance against age-related cognitive decline. Is there something special about their brain functional connectivity that helps them preserve cognitive function into the 11th decade of life? In a cohort of 57 dementia-free near-centenarians and centenarians (95–103 years old) and 66 cognitively unimpaired younger participants (76–79 years old), we aimed to investigate brain functional characteristics in the extreme age range using resting-state functional MRI. Using group-level independent component analysis and dual regression, results showed group differences in the functional connectivity of seven group-level independent component (IC) templates, after accounting for sex, education years, and grey matter volume, and correcting for multiple testing at family-wise error rate of 0.05. After Bonferroni correction for testing 30 IC templates, near-centenarians and centenarians showed stronger functional connectivity between right frontoparietal control network (FPCN) and left inferior frontal gyrus (Bonferroni-corrected p ​= ​0.024), a core region of the left FPCN. The investigation of between-IC functional connectivity confirmed the voxel-wise result by showing stronger functional connectivity between bilateral FPCNs in near-centenarians and centenarians compared to young-old controls. In addition, near-centenarians and centenarians had weaker functional connectivity between default mode network and fronto-temporo-parietal network compared to young-old controls. In near-centenarians and centenarians, stronger functional connectivity between bilateral FPCNs was associated with better cognitive performance in the visuospatial domain. The current study highlights the key role of bilateral FPCN connectivity in the reserve capacity against age-related cognitive decline. •We studied functional connectivity (FC) in near-centenarians and centenarians (nCC).•NCC showed stronger FC between bilateral frontoparietal control network (FPCN).•The stronger bilateral FPCN FC was linked to better visuospatial ability in nCC.
Prevalence and Predictors of “Subjective Cognitive Complaints” in the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study
To document the prevalence of self- and informant report of cognitive problems, usually referred to as “subjective cognitive complaints” (SCCs), in a community-dwelling sample of older adults and to examine the relationship between SCCs and objective impairment, mood, and personality measures. Eight hundred twenty-seven nondemented community-dwelling adults aged 70–90 years. Participants were asked 24 SCC questions, including the Memory Complaint Questionnaire (MAC-Q), and completed neuropsychological testing in the domains of memory, language, executive function, visuospatial skills, and psychomotor speed. The Geriatric Depression Scale, Goldberg Anxiety Scale, and Neuroticism, Openness, and Conscientiousness from the NEO-Five Factor Inventory were used as measures of participants' psychological status. Informants completed 19 SCC questions, including a modified short Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE). Overall, 95.5% of participants or their informants endorsed at least one SCC. Although participants were more likely to endorse a memory complaint, informants seemed more accurate in endorsing a complaint when cognitive impairment was objectively present. SCC correlated with participants' scores on measures of depression, anxiety, neuroticism, and inversely with measures of openness and conscientiousness. Age, education, and sex had little impact on these effects. Regression analysis showed that psychological factors explained the number of complaints more than cognitive performance. The usefulness of SCCs as a criterion for mild cognitive impairment is questioned because of their high prevalence and their relationship to psychological factors. This may be helpful for clinicians to bear in mind when presented with patients with cognitive complaints.
Characterising Australian memory clinics: current practice and service needs informing national service guidelines
Background Memory clinics (MCs) play a key role in accurate and timely diagnoses and treatment of dementia and mild cognitive impairment. However, within Australia, there are little data available on current practices in MCs, which hinder international comparisons for best practice, harmonisation efforts and national coordination. Here, we aimed to characterise current service profiles of Australian MCs. Methods The ‘Australian Dementia Network Survey of Expert Opinion on Best Practice and the Current Clinical Landscape’ was conducted between August-September 2020 as part of a larger-scale Delphi process deployed to develop national MC guidelines. In this study, we report on the subset of questions pertaining to current practice including wait-times and post-diagnostic care. Results Responses were received from 100 health professionals representing 60 separate clinics (45 public, 11 private, and 4 university/research clinics). The majority of participants were from clinics in metropolitan areas (79%) and in general were from high socioeconomic areas. While wait-times varied, only 28.3% of clinics were able to offer an appointment within 1-2 weeks for urgent referrals, with significantly more private clinics (58.3%) compared to public clinics (19.5%) being able to do so. Wait-times were less than 8 weeks for 34.5% of non-urgent referrals. Only 20.0 and 30.9% of clinics provided cognitive interventions or post-diagnostic support respectively, with 7.3% offering home-based reablement programs, and only 12.7% offering access to group-based education. Metropolitan clinics utilised neuropsychological assessments for a broader range of cases and were more likely to offer clinical trials and access to research opportunities. Conclusions In comparison to similar countries with comprehensive government-funded public healthcare systems (i.e., United Kingdom, Ireland and Canada), wait-times for Australian MCs are long, and post-diagnostic support or evidence-based strategies targeting cognition are not common practice. The timely and important results of this study highlight a need for Australian MCs to adopt a more holistic service of multidisciplinary assessment and post-diagnostic support, as well as the need for the number of Australian MCs to be increased to match the rising number of dementia cases.
Is intraindividual reaction time variability an independent cognitive predictor of mortality in old age? Findings from the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study
Intraindividual variability of reaction time (IIVRT), a proposed cognitive marker of neurobiological disturbance, increases in old age, and has been associated with dementia and mortality. The extent to which IIVRT is an independent predictor of mortality, however, is unclear. This study investigated the association of IIVRT and all-cause mortality while accounting for cognitive level, incident dementia and biomedical risk factors in 861 participants aged 70-90 from the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study. Participants completed two computerised reaction time (RT) tasks (76 trials in total) at baseline, and comprehensive medical and neuropsychological assessments every 2 years. Composite RT measures were derived from the two tasks-the mean RT and the IIVRT measure computed from the intraindividual standard deviation of the RTs (with age and time-on-task effects partialled out). Consensus dementia diagnoses were made by an expert panel of clinicians using clinical criteria, and mortality data were obtained from a state registry. Cox proportional hazards models estimated the association of IIVRT and mean RT with survival time over 8 years during which 191 (22.2%) participants died. Greater IIVRT but not mean RT significantly predicted survival time after adjusting for age, sex, global cognition score, cardiovascular risk index and apolipoprotein ɛ4 status. After excluding incident dementia cases, the association of IIVRT with mortality changed very little. Our findings suggest that greater IIVRT uniquely predicts shorter time to death and that lower global cognition and prodromal dementia in older individuals do not explain this relationship.