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VP Advantage
A widespread perception exists among political commentators, campaign operatives and presidential candidates that vice presidential (VP) running mates can deliver their home state's electoral votes in a presidential election. In recent elections, presidential campaigns have even changed their strategy in response to the perceived VP home state advantage. But is the advantage real? And could it decide a presidential election? In the most comprehensive analysis to date, Devine and Kopko demonstrate that the VP home state advantage is actually highly conditional and rarely decisive in the Electoral College. However, it could change the outcome of a presidential election under narrow but plausible conditions. Sophisticated in its methodology and rich in historical as well as contemporary insight, The VP Advantage is essential and accessible reading for anyone interested in understanding how running mates influence presidential elections.
eBook
Do Running Mates Matter?
The American vice presidency, as the saying goes, \"is not worth a
bucket of warm spit.\" Yet vice presidential candidates ,
many people believe, can make all the difference in winning-or
losing-a presidential election. Is that true, though? Did Sarah
Palin, for example, sink John McCain's campaign in 2008? Did Joe
Biden help Barack Obama win? Do running mates actually matter? In
the first book to put this question to a rigorous test, Christopher
J. Devine and Kyle C. Kopko draw upon an unprecedented range of
empirical data to reveal how, and how much, running mates influence
voting in presidential elections. Building on their previous work
in The VP Advantage and evidence from over 200 statistical
models spanning the 1952 to 2016 presidential elections, the
authors analyze three pathways by which running mates might
influence vote choice. First, of course, they test for direct
effects, or whether evaluations of the running mate influence vote
choice among voters in general. Next, they test for targeted
effects-if, that is, running mates win votes among key subsets of
voters who share their gender, religion, ideology, or geographic
identity. Finally, the authors examine indirect effects-that is,
whether running mates shape perceptions of the presidential
candidate who selected them, which in turn influence vote choice.
Here, in this last category, is where we see running mates most
clearly influencing presidential voting-especially when it comes to
their qualifications for holding office and taking over as
president, if necessary. Picking a running mate from a key voting
bloc probably won't make a difference, the authors conclude. But
picking an experienced, well-qualified running mate will make the
presidential candidate look better to voters-â€\"and win some votes.
With its wealth of data and expert analysis, this finely crafted
study, the most comprehensive to date, finally provides clear
answers to one of the most enduring questions in presidential
politics: can the running mate make a difference in this election?
eBook