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"Koppl, Roger"
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Explaining technology
This Element develops an innovative combinatorial model of technological change and tests it with 2,000 years of data from global GDP data and US patents, thus generating the observed historical pattern of technological change. This Element models the Industrial Revolution as a combinatorial explosion.
Book
Public health and expert failure
In a modern democracy, a public health system includes mechanisms for the provision of expert scientific advice to elected officials. The decisions of elected officials generally will be degraded by expert failure, that is, the provision of bad advice. The theory of expert failure suggests that competition among experts generally is the best safeguard against expert failure. Monopoly power of experts increases the chance of expert failure. The risk of expert failure also is greater when scientific advice is provided by only one or a few disciplines. A national government can simulate a competitive market for expert advice by structuring the scientific advice it receives to ensure the production of multiple perspectives from multiple disciplines. I apply these general principles to the United Kingdom’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
Journal Article
Expert failure
\"The humble idea that experts are ordinary human beings leads to surprising conclusions about how to get the best possible expert advice. All too often, experts have monopoly power because of licensing restrictions or because they are government bureaucrats protected from both competition and the consequences of their decisions. This book argues that, in the market for expert opinion, we need real competition in which rival experts may have different opinions and new experts are free to enter. But the idea of breaking up expert monopolies has far-reaching implications for public administration, forensic science, research science, economics, America's military-industrial complex, and all domains of expert knowledge. Roger Koppl develops a theory of experts and expert failure, and uses a wide range of examples - from forensic science to fashion - to explain the applications of his theory, including state regulation of economic activity\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Leland Bennett Yeager: 1924–2018
From the former, he got an understanding of how profit-and-loss considerations guide decisions in a firm, in contrast with the more procedural or rule-bound guidance required for organizations that do not seek money profits. [...]purchasing power parity is treated similarly. Yeager summarized \"the main ideas I learned from Mises\": (1) \"First and most specifically, monetary theory and the importance of distinguishing between actual and demanded quantities of money\"; (2) \"the logic of peaceful cooperation in a market economy. Competition and economic life in general are activities rather in contrast with the price theory that I'd learned as a grad student at Columbia\"; (3) \"interventionism and the . . . unintended consequences of particular interventions\"; (4) \"and, of course, the importance of a utilitarian basis of morality in personal and political life\" (Yeager 2012).
Journal Article
How many democratic countries have conducted COVID-19 public inquiries? An exploratory study of government-led postpandemic reviews (2020–2024)
IntroductionMany governments have initiated national inquiries into their responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Lessons drawn from them will matter for public health policies. While these inquiries represent an opportunity for policy learning, there may also be obstacles. This study helps to explore these opportunities and obstacles by providing an initial survey of COVID-19 inquiries.MethodsWe collected a novel data set of national COVID-19 inquiries in democratic countries, taking note of their type, membership, timing, mandate and whether their terms of reference asked the inquiry to consider the adequacy of the government pandemic response as well as the collateral harms arising from government interventions. We conducted a series of panel logit analyses to examine the extent to which country-level factors—such as the level of democracy and executive oversight, centralisation of executive power and economic development—were associated with the likelihood of appointing a COVID-19 inquiry.ResultsWe found 32 national COVID-19 inquiries, held in 25 (32%) of the countries in our data set, which included 78 countries with a score of at least 0.6 on the 2019 Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Electoral Democracy Index. Of the 32 national inquiries, 14 (44%) were public inquiries (proper), 15 (47%) were inquiries conducted by parliamentary committees and 3 (9%) were another type of inquiry. The earliest public inquiries (proper) were launched in the first half of 2020 in the Scandinavian countries. Generally, countries were slightly quicker to establish parliamentary committee inquiries than public inquiries proper. Many democracies, such as Canada, have yet to initiate one at all.A country’s probability of initiating a COVID-19 inquiry was positively correlated with its level of democracy, gross domestic product per capita and executive oversight, but negatively correlated with higher values of the V-Dem index of presidentialism. These correlations were significant once we controlled for multicollinearity. The vast majority of inquiries (77%) were appointed in 2020 and 2021. Most inquiries’ terms of reference were relatively open-ended, with few specifically demanding an examination of policy adequacy and most urging some sort of investigation into the COVID-19 measures’ collateral harms.ConclusionAlthough slightly less than a third of countries in our sample have initiated inquiries into their COVID-19 response, those that have tend to mention collateral harms in their terms of reference, but not policy inadequacy. Our exploratory study should be followed by fine-grained textual analyses of individual inquiries.
Journal Article
The Cacophony within Law and Macroeconomics
The emerging field of law and macroeconomics is dominated by Keynesianism, which is used to defend interventionism. Law fluctuates with economic fluctuations. I defend an alternative approach that resists fluctuations in the law and supports the rule of law. This approach emerges from old-fashioned monetary theory as exemplified by the work of F. A. Hayek and Leland Yeager. I show how the tools of complexity economics may be used to build on the foundations of such old-fashioned monetary theory. These tools are helpful in crafting criticisms of interventionist policies and in defending the vital importance of the rule of law.
Journal Article
From crisis to confidence
From Crisis to Confidence not only describes the process which the economy must go through before a full recovery after the financial crash, it also describes the journey that must be travelled by the discipline of economics. As economics students and other commentators question post-war macroeconomics, Roger Koppl provides some of the answers needed to understand the long slump since 2008. A theory of confidence is needed in any economic framework that is to explain one of the most important periods in modern economic history.
eBook
