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The importance of price forecasting has gained attention over the last few years, with the growth of aggregators and the general opening of the European electricity markets. Market participants manage a tradeoff between, bidding in a lower price market (day-ahead), but with typically higher volume, or aiming for a lower volume market but with potentially higher returns (balance energy market). Companies try to forecast the extremes of revenues or prices, in order to manage risk and opportunity, assigning their assets in an optimal way. It is thought that in general, electricity markets have quasi-deterministic principles, rather than being based on speculation, hence the desire to forecast the price based on variables that can describe the outcome of the market. Many studies address this problem from a statistical approach or by performing multiple-variable regressions, but they very often focus only on the time series analysis. In 2019, the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) was made available in the UK for the first time. Taking this opportunity, this study focusses on five LOLP variables (with different time-ahead estimations) and other quasi-deterministic variables, to explain the price behavior of a multi-variable regression model. These include base production, system load, solar and wind generation, seasonality, day-ahead price and imbalance volume contributions. Three machine-learning algorithms were applied to test for performance, Gradient Boosting (GB), Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost. XGBoost presented higher performance and so it was chosen for the implementation of the real time forecast step. The model returns a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 7.89 £/MWh, a coefficient of determination (R2 score) of 76.8% and a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 124.74. The variables that contribute the most to the model are the Net Imbalance Volume, the LOLP (aggregated), the month and the De-rated margins (aggregated) with 28.6%, 27.5%, 14.0%, and 8.9% of weight on feature importance respectively.

The interest in modeling the operation of large-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) for analyzing power grid applications is rising. This is due to the increasing storage capacity installed in power systems for providing ancillary services and supporting nonprogrammable renewable energy sources (RES). BESS numerical models suitable for grid-connected applications must offer a trade-off, keeping a high accuracy even with limited computational effort. Moreover, they are asked to be viable in modeling for real-life equipment, and not just accurate in the simulation of the electrochemical section. The aim of this study is to develop a numerical model for the analysis of the grid-connected BESS operation; the main goal of the proposal is to have a test protocol based on standard equipment and just based on charge/discharge tests, i.e., a procedure viable for a BESS owner without theoretical skills in electrochemistry or lab procedures, and not requiring the ability to disassemble the BESS in order to test each individual component. The BESS model developed is characterized by an experimental campaign. The test procedure itself is framed in the context of this study and adopted for the experimental campaign on a commercial large-scale BESS. Once the model is characterized by the experimental parameters, it undergoes the verification and validation process by testing its accuracy in simulating the provision of frequency regulation. A case study is presented for the sake of presenting a potential application of the model. The procedure developed and validated is replicable in any other facility, due to the low complexity of the proposed experimental set. This could help stakeholders to accurately simulate several layouts of network services.

Climate neutrality is one of the greatest challenges of our century, and a decarbonised energy system is a key step towards this goal. To this end, the electricity system is expected to become more interconnected, digitalised, and flexible by engaging consumers both through microgeneration and through demand side flexibility. A successful use of these flexibility tools depends widely on the evaluation of their effects, hence the definition of methods to assess and evaluate them is essential for their implementation. In order to enable a reliable assessment of the benefits from participating in demand response, it is necessary to define a reference value (“baseline”) to allow for a fair comparison. Different methodologies have been investigated, developed, and adopted for estimating the customer baseline load. The article presents a structured overview of methods for the estimating the customer baseline load, based on a review of academic literature, existing standardisation efforts, and lessons from use cases. In particular, the article describes and focuses on the different baseline methods applied in some European H2020 projects, showing the results achieved in terms of measurement accuracy and costs in real test cases. The most suitable methodology choice among the several available depends on many factors. Some of them can be the function of the Demand Response (DR) service in the system, the broader regulatory framework for DR participation in wholesale markets, or the DR providers characteristics, and this list is not exclusive. The evaluation shows that the baseline methodology choice presents a trade-off among complexity, accuracy, and cost

Demand response services and energy communities are set to be vital in bringing citizens to the core of the energy transition. The success of load flexibility integration in the electricity market, provided by demand response services, will depend on a redesign or adaptation of the current regulatory framework, which so far only reaches large industrial electricity users. However, due to the high contribution of the residential sector to electricity consumption, there is huge potential when considering the aggregated load flexibility of this sector. Nevertheless, challenges remain in load flexibility estimation and attaining data integrity while respecting consumer privacy. This study presents a methodology to estimate such flexibility by integrating a non-intrusive load monitoring approach to load disaggregation algorithms in order to train a machine-learning model. We then apply a categorization of loads and develop flexibility criteria, targeting each load flexibility amplitude with a corresponding time. Two datasets, Residential Energy Disaggregation Dataset (REDD) and Refit, are used to simulate the flexibility for a specific household, applying it to a grid balancing event request. Two algorithms are used for load disaggregation, Combinatorial Optimization, and a Factorial Hidden Markov model, and the U.K. demand response Short Term Operating Reserve (STOR) program is used for market integration. Results show a maximum flexibility power of 200–245 W and 180–500 W for the REDD and Refit datasets, respectively. The accuracy metrics of the flexibility models are presented, and results are discussed considering market barriers.

Demand response (DR) services have the potential to enable large penetration of renewable energy by adjusting load consumption, thus providing balancing support to the grid. The success of such load flexibility provided by industry, communities, or prosumers and its integration in electricity markets, will depend on a redesign and adaptation of the current interactions between participants. New challenges are, however, bound to appear with the large scale contribution of smaller assets to flexibility, including, among others, the dispatch coordination, the validation of delivery of the DR provision, and the corresponding settlement of contracts, while assuring secured data access among interested parties. In this study we applied distributed ledger (DLT)/blockchain technology to securely track DR provision, focusing on the validation aspect, assuring data integrity, origin, fast registry, and sharing within a permissioned system, between all relevant parties (including transmission system operators (TSOs), aggregators, distribution system operators (DSOs), balance responsible parties (BRP), and prosumers). We propose a framework for DR registry and implemented it as a proof of concept on Hyperledger Fabric, using real assets in a laboratory environment, in order to study its feasibility and performance. The lab set up includes a 450 kW energy storage system, scheduled to provide DR services, upon a system operator request and the corresponding validations and verifications are done, followed by the publication on a blockchain. Results show the end to end execution time remained below 1 s, when below 32 requests/sec. The smart contract memory utilization did not surpass 1% for both active and passive nodes and the peer CPU utilization, remained below 5% in all cases simulated (3, 10, and 28 nodes). Smart Contract CPU utilization remained stable, below 1% in all cases. The performance of the implementation showed scalable results, which enables real world adoption of DLT in supporting the development of flexibility markets, with the advantages of blockchain technology.

Interoperability becomes a key issue for smart grid systems, as the interaction between diverse components needs to lead to a normal system operation. In this paper, we test interoperability issues with respect to home automation. In particular, interaction of a home energy management system (HEMS) is examined with an external actor for home/building remote control. We show the importance and the feasibility of remotely controlling domestic loads from outside the house premises, which can be crucial for energy saving operations, such as demand response. The Smart Grid Architecture Model (SGAM) is used, where the different actors are depicted. The interoperability testing methodology for smart grids, developed by our unit, is followed in order to design the necessary tests and execute them. For the experimental part, we develop an HEMS in our lab along with a Home Automation End Device (HAED), used to transform two normal plugs, and consequently, normal loads into smart ones, thus creating a system for home automation and control. The described configuration is only one possible configuration out of the available ones existing in the market for home automation. LabVIEW programming is used in order to realize the actual explicit demand response program through remote load control and scheduling. The results show that explicit demand response can be achieved by an external actor with success and interoperability is preserved.

Explicit demand response plays a significant role in the future energy grid transition, as it involves end consumers in smart grid activities and, at the same time, exploits the potential of flexibility, giving the opportunity to grid operators to accommodate a total amount of energy without the need to reinforce the grid infrastructure. For evaluating the successfulness of a demand response program, thus, evaluating its advantages, it is fundamental to have an accurate baseline curve consumption along with meaningful key performance indicators. In this work, we propose a novel way of calculating the baseline consumption using artificial intelligence techniques. In particular, regression models have been applied to a database of historical data. In order to present a complete evaluation of demand response programs, we present five key performance indicators (KPIs). The KPIs have been selected so as to depict the successfulness of the explicit demand response program. We suggest a novel way of evaluating two of the five KPI using a quantitative approach. We also apply the proposed methodology for baseline calculation and KPIs evaluation in a practical example: two pilot sites have been used and real-life scenarios of demand response events have been applied for this scope to actual nonindustrial consumers and especially residential consumers. The baseline has been calculated for these pilot sites and the KPIs have been evaluated for them. The presented results complete the picture of evaluating a real-life demand response program and show the effectiveness of the selected approach. The proposed schemes for baseline calculation and KPI evaluation can be used by the scientific community for evaluating future demand response programs, especially in the residential sector.

The modernization of the distribution grid requires a huge amount of data to be transmitted and handled by the network. The deployment of Advanced Metering Infrastructure systems results in an increased traffic generated by smart meters. In this work, we examine the smart meter traffic that needs to be accommodated by a real distribution system. Parameters such as the message size and the message transmission frequency are examined and their effect on traffic is showed. Limitations of the system are presented, such as the buffer capacity needs and the maximum message size that can be communicated. For this scope, we have used the parameters of a real distribution network, based on a survey at which the European Distribution System Operators (DSOs) have participated. For the smart meter traffic, we have used two popular specifications, namely the G3-PLC–“G3 Power Line communication” and PRIME–acronym for “PoweRline Intelligent Metering Evolution”, to simulate the characteristics of a system that is widely used in practice. The results can be an insight for further development of the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) systems that control and monitor the Low Voltage (LV) distribution grid. The paper presents an analysis towards identifying the needs of distribution networks with respect to telecommunication data as well as the main parameters that can affect the Inverse Fast Fourier Transform (IFFT) system performance. Identifying such parameters is consequently beneficial to designing more efficient ICT systems for Advanced Metering Infrastructure.

The explicit demand response (DR) is a key program for reinforcing the participation of end customers and making the most out of the potential of the smart grid. The DR is a key topic in the field of buildings to make use of the flexibility that they can offer. However, in order to guarantee the correct functionality of a DR system, it is fundamental to perform interoperability tests among the various components/actors. In this paper, we take into consideration the technological solutions suggested in the framework of the DRIMPAC project to enable the DR in buildings. We consider all actors/devices involved in order to reach the objective of executing a flexibility order by an asset. Following a structured interoperability testing methodology created by the Joint Research Centre, we perform interoperability tests regarding all critical links of the full chain of interacting actors to obtain the DR in buildings. The results show that the system functions properly and the benefits from the DR can be exploited. On the other hand, we provide a concrete example of how to apply the interoperability methodology in the field of testing the DR in buildings.

Electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure rollout is well under way in several power systems, namely North America, Japan, Europe, and China. In order to support EV charging infrastructures design and operation, little attempt has been made to develop indicator-based methods characterising such networks across different regions. This study defines an assessment methodology, composed by eight indicators, allowing a comparison among EV public charging infrastructures. The proposed indicators capture the following: energy demand from EVs, energy use intensity, charger’s intensity distribution, the use time ratios, energy use ratios, the nearest neighbour distance between chargers and availability, the total service ratio, and the carbon intensity as an environmental impact indicator. We apply the methodology to a dataset from ElaadNL, a reference smart charging provider in The Netherlands, using open source geographic information system (GIS) and R software. The dataset reveals higher energy intensity in six urban areas and that 50% of energy supplied comes from 19.6% of chargers. Correlations of spatial density are strong and nearest neighbouring distances range from 1101 to 9462 m. Use time and energy use ratios are 11.21% and 3.56%. The average carbon intensity is 4.44 gCO2eq/MJ. Finally, the indicators are used to assess the impact of relevant public policies on the EV charging infrastructure use and roll-out.