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Dietary transition towards higher consumption of animal source foods (ASF) associated with higher incomes across low and middle-income countries could have negative impacts on environmental systems and their potential in the long run to provide services necessary for achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In this article, we integrate economic, land use allocation, and biophysical models to investigate trade-offs between the five ecosystem services and their contributions to various SDGs associated with agricultural expansion to meet future demand for ASF, using Tanzania as a case study. Our results show that under the scenario of sustainable socio-economic development, between 2010 and 2030 in Tanzania, per capita income grows by 169% and the share of population at risk of hunger declines from 34.8% to 23%. These changes can be associated on a macro-level with positive contributions to achievement of SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). To satisfy feed demand for increased livestock production domestically, an increase by 21.4% of biomass production as compared to 2010 is needed. Analysis of alternative scenarios for meeting this new demand shows potential threats on a landscape level to achieving numerous SDGs and more generally to attaining sustainable food systems. Ecosystem-based contributions primarily decline to SDGs: SDG 3 (Health), SDG 6 (Clean Water), SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities), SDG 13 (Climate) and SDG 15 (Terrestrial Life). We find that higher crop productivity and redesign of agro-ecosystems to increase on-farm tree cover could significantly limit these losses. Alternatively, the growing demand for ASF could be satisfied with imports, which would allow for reducing the trade-offs locally. However, this would result in at least partially only displacing ecosystem service losses to the exporting countries.

Plant-based animal product alternatives are increasingly promoted to achieve more sustainable diets. Here, we use a global economic land use model to assess the food system-wide impacts of a global dietary shift towards these alternatives. We find a substantial reduction in the global environmental impacts by 2050 if globally 50% of the main animal products (pork, chicken, beef and milk) are substituted—net reduction of forest and natural land is almost fully halted and agriculture and land use GHG emissions decline by 31% in 2050 compared to 2020. If spared agricultural land within forest ecosystems is restored to forest, climate benefits could double, reaching 92% of the previously estimated land sector mitigation potential. Furthermore, the restored area could contribute to 13-25% of the estimated global land restoration needs under target 2 from the Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by 2030, and future declines in ecosystem integrity by 2050 would be more than halved. The distribution of these impacts varies across regions—the main impacts on agricultural input use are in China and on environmental outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. While beef replacement provides the largest impacts, substituting multiple products is synergistic. Meat and dairy alternatives are promoted for diet sustainability. Here, the authors use a modelling approach to show that replacing 50% of pork, chicken, beef and milk globally with plant-based alternatives can reduce GHG emissions by 6.3 Gt CO 2 eq year -1 and more than half biodiversity loss by 2050.

The global context has shifted dramatically since publication of the first EAT–Lancet Commission in 2019, with increased geopolitical instability, soaring food prices, and the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and creating new challenges. However, food systems remain squarely centred at the nexus of food security, human health, environmental sustainability, social justice, and the resilience of nations. Actions on food systems strongly impact the lives and wellbeing of all and are necessary to progress towards goals highlighted in the Sustainable Development Goals, the Paris Agreement, and the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Although current food systems have largely kept pace with population growth, ensuring sufficient caloric intake for many, they are the single most influential driver of planetary boundary transgression. More than half of the world's population struggles to access healthy diets, leading to devastating consequences for public health, social equity, and the environment. Although hunger has declined in some regions, recent increases linked to expanding conflicts and emergent climate change impacts have reversed this positive trend. Obesity rates continue to rise globally, and the pressure exerted by food systems on planetary boundaries shows no signs of abating. In this moment of increasing instability, food systems still offer an unprecedented opportunity to build the resilience of environmental, health, economic, and social systems, and are uniquely placed to enhance human wellbeing while also contributing to Earth-system stability. This updated analysis builds upon the 2019 EAT–Lancet Commission, expanding its scope and strengthening its evidence base. The first Commission defined food group ranges for a healthy diet and identified the food systems' share of planetary boundaries. In this Commission, we add an analysis of the social foundations for a just food system, and incorporate new data and perspectives on distributive, representational, and recognitional justice, providing a global overview on equity in food systems. Substantial improvements in modelling capacity and data analysis allow for the use of a multimodel ensemble to project potential outcomes of a transition to healthy and sustainable food systems. The planetary health diet (PHD) remains a cornerstone of our recommendations and can be seen as a framework within which diverse and culturally appropriate diets can exist. Robust updated evidence reinforces a strong association with improved health outcomes, large reductions in all-cause mortality, and a substantial decline in the incidence of major diet-related chronic diseases. The reference PHD emphasises a balanced dietary pattern that is predominantly plant-based, with moderate inclusion of animal-sourced foods and minimal consumption of added sugars, saturated fats, and salt. Successful implementation of the PHD requires careful consideration of cultural contexts and the promotion of culturally appropriate and sustainable dietary traditions. This diversity of contexts, bounded by the PHD's reference values, represents substantial flexibility and choice across cultures, geographies, and individual preferences. However, when confronted by climate, biodiversity, health, and justice crises, transformation will require urgent and meaningful changes in our individual and collective behaviours and our culture of unhealthy, unjust, and unsustainable food production and consumption. For the first time, we quantify the global food systems' share of all nine planetary boundaries. These food system boundaries confirm that food is the single largest cause of planetary boundary transgressions, driving the transgression of five of the six breached boundaries. In addition, food systems exert a notable impact on the transgressed climate boundary and on the ocean acidification boundary. Unsustainable land conversion, particularly deforestation, remains a major driver of biodiversity loss and climate change, highlighting the need for zero conversion of all remaining intact ecosystems. Food systems account for the near totality of nitrogen and phosphorus boundary transgression, emphasising the improvements needed in nutrient management, efficient nutrient redistribution, and circular nutrient systems. The massive use of novel entities in food production, processing, and packaging (ranging from plastics to pesticides) remains a major concern but is alarmingly understudied. Our assessment of justice integrates three dimensions—distributive, representational, and recognitional—within a human rights framing that includes the rights to food, a healthy environment, and decent work. Analyses reveal important inequities in access to healthy diets, decent work conditions, and healthy environments, disproportionately affecting marginalised groups in low-income regions. We therefore propose nine social foundations that enable these rights to be met, and are able to assess the global status of six. Enabling access to, affordability of, and demand for healthy diets is paramount. Equally crucial is the right to live and work within a non-toxic environment and a stable climate system, as we recognise the profound impact of environmental degradation on human health and wellbeing. Furthermore, a living wage and meaningful representation would allow individuals to actively participate in building healthy, sustainable, and just food systems. However, nearly half of the world's population falls below these social foundations, undermining their ability to meet basic human rights. At the same time, the dietary patterns of most (6·9 billion people) of the world exert pressures that threaten further planetary boundary transgression. The destabilising effect of unhealthy overconsumption on the Earth's systems highlights the importance of viewing healthy diets not just as a human right, but also as a shared responsibility.

Banana Xanthomonas wilt (BXW) is one of the most important diseases threatening banana production in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA). In this study, we examine the potential impacts of BXW on banana production, demand, and food security in SSA, if the disease spread across all banana-producing countries in the region. The analysis is based on a multidisciplinary approach that combines a mathematical model of field-level BXW spread over time with a dynamic global partial equilibrium economic model. Since BXW control relies exclusively on management, we analyze three scenarios of BXW spread that are constructed around assumptions about the level of policy response to the disease, and about how this response may affect the adoption of appropriate management practices by farmers to control BXW. Modeling results suggest that if the disease is left uncontrolled, banana production in SSA within 10 years can decrease by as much as 55%, compared to a BXW-free baseline scenario, resulting in economic losses of around 25 billion USD. At the same time, the population at risk of hunger in countries that highly depend on bananas as a staple food is projected to increase by more than 4.6%. Even a limited policy response to BXW can reduce infections and mitigate some of the production, economic, and food security consequences. BXW impacts are almost completely negated when farmers have good knowledge of the disease and fully adopt the appropriate management practices. This result highlights the need for policy frameworks which rely on sustained and coordinated efforts by public and private stakeholders, within and across SSA countries and at different geographical scales. It also aims to raise awareness and promote the adoption of such practices, while also considering local peculiarities and socioeconomic conditions.

There are two high-provitamin A (pVA) banana-based interventions potentially available in Uganda—biofortified genetically modified (GM) banana and fast-tracked banana landraces from outside Uganda that are naturally high in provitamin A (nHpVA). Based on the newest country statistics and using adoption scenarios obtained through focus group discussions and expert interviews, we assess obstacles and opportunities for adoption as well as cost-effectiveness of these interventions. In two alternative scenarios for the GM banana (M9 matooke), we assume 40% and 64% adoption rates, which would result in US $29,374,151 and US$ 63,259,415 in income saved, respectively. As an alternative, for the symmetrical scenarios, we calculate that if the nHpVA banana (Apantu plantain, native of Ghana) were to be adopted, US $46,100,148 and US$ 76,364,988 in income would be saved. Taking into account the full cost of R&D, we estimate that the M9 matooke could save one disability-adjusted life year (DALY) at a cost of US $67.37 at best and US$ 145.09 at worst. We estimate that the Apantu plantain could save one DALY at a cost of US $50.54 at best and US$ 83.72 at worst. Our DALY analysis estimates that all assessed HpVA banana interventions are extremely cost-effective in all scenarios, following both the World Bank's and the WHO criteria. Nevertheless, successful interventions would require extensive promotion campaigns and shifts in agricultural value chains.

Historically, India has relied on subsidizing staple food as a major instrument in improving food security. Recently, however, cash transfers have entered the debate as an alternative, as they are associated with lower market distortions, leakages and fiscal costs. This study contributes to this debate by analyzing India’s Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS). Our main objective was to explain the under-purchase, or low take-up, from the TPDS, which is typically attributed to ‘leakage’, i.e. the diversion of food grains from eligible consumers. We provide an alternative solution based on self-targeting; while poorer households increase their consumption from the TPDS, wealthier households restrain from consuming subsidized commodities. Using a large household dataset, we estimated that such a voluntary opt-out system, based on income, would save a minimum of 6.5% of grains released through the TPDS. Besides these demand-driven aspects, our analysis indicates that poor regions perform better at lowering the diversion of grains and that large targeting errors exist among female-led households. Finally, we find substantial regional price differences that would benefit the poor and rural population under a uniform cash-transfer system that does not correct for regional price levels.

The agrifood system holds the key to identifying potential transformative pathways to achieve prosperity for all within the limits of the planet's natural resources, thereby fostering a safe and just operating system (SJOS) for future generations. The agrifood system is currently not on the right track to meet this ambition. Food–consumer processes such as preference shifts toward healthy diets and substantial reductions in food losses and waste could help to avoid severe environmental degradation and decrease overall mortality, although it remains unclear whether such transitional developments are entirely compatible with socially responsible thresholds. In this paper, we conduct a scoping review approach to map the evidence on the underlying drivers of such demand-side processes in the context of an SJOS with the aim to provide insights on how to transform the EU agrifood system. This review specifically examines how consumer aspects influence the SJOS, rather than exploring the bidirectional relationship. We used a scoping review approach to select relevant studies. The selected papers were subjected to quantitative and qualitative analyses. As a result, we extract insights and draw lessons from the role of food–consumer processes in the transition toward a more SJOS for the agrifood system.

Standard tools that can quantitatively track the impacts of higher global demand for animal-sourced food to their local environmental effects in developing countries are largely missing. This paper presents a novel integrated assessment framework that links a model of the global agricultural and food system, a landscape-level environmental impact assessment model, and an ecosystem services simulation model. For Tanzania, this integrated assessment showed that a projected increase in the demand and production of foods of livestock origin with optimistic economic growth between 2010 and 2030 leads to an improvement in food security. However, resulting transitions in land use impact negatively on the future provisioning of ecosystem services, increasing phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment in runoff and reducing water quality in areas downstream of the agricultural expansion. Losses in ecosystem services are lowest when diversified farming practices are adopted in areas of agricultural land expansion. The role of land management in the environmental impacts of expanded livestock production is highlighted, as is the need for a new generation of analytical tools to inform policy recommendations.

Esta investigación ha recibido apoyo financiero de la Unión Europea en el marco del programa Horizonte Europa - Alimentación, Bioeconomía, Recursos Naturales, Agricultura y Medio Ambiente, Acuerdo de subvención nº 101060075.

The study analyzes the current state of Agricultural Technical and Vocational Education and Training (ATVET) in Africa and presents its challenges and opportunities. A review of the ATVET in selected Sub- Saharan Africa countries shows that there are far too few training opportunities for young people and that often, the training offered does not match the needs of the private sector and of local administrations. ATVET trainings focus primarily on production skills and on producers themselves with too little practical training. ATVET needs to be adapted to the context of increasingly commercial and technical 21st century agricultural systems. We use the German dual ATVET system as a case study for best practices. The study concludes that an effective reform of ATVET in Africa would require policies and initiatives that tackle the general challenges as well as taking advantage of country-specific opportunities.