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We currently observe a disconcerting phenomenon in machine learning studies in psychiatry: While we would expect larger samples to yield better results due to the availability of more data, larger machine learning studies consistently show much weaker performance than the numerous small-scale studies. Here, we systematically investigated this effect focusing on one of the most heavily studied questions in the field, namely the classification of patients suffering from Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and healthy controls based on neuroimaging data. Drawing upon structural MRI data from a balanced sample of N = 1868 MDD patients and healthy controls from our recent international Predictive Analytics Competition (PAC), we first trained and tested a classification model on the full dataset which yielded an accuracy of 61%. Next, we mimicked the process by which researchers would draw samples of various sizes (N = 4 to N = 150) from the population and showed a strong risk of misestimation. Specifically, for small sample sizes (N = 20), we observe accuracies of up to 95%. For medium sample sizes (N = 100) accuracies up to 75% were found. Importantly, further investigation showed that sufficiently large test sets effectively protect against performance misestimation whereas larger datasets per se do not. While these results question the validity of a substantial part of the current literature, we outline the relatively low-cost remedy of larger test sets, which is readily available in most cases.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with abnormal neural circuitry. It can be measured by assessing functional connectivity (FC) at resting-state functional MRI, that may help identifying neural markers of MDD and provide further efficient diagnosis and monitor treatment outcomes. The main aim of the present study is to investigate, in an unbiased way, functional alterations in patients with MDD using a large multi-center dataset from the PsyMRI consortium including 1546 participants from 19 centers (www.psymri.com). After applying strict exclusion criteria, the final sample consisted of 606 MDD patients (age: 35.8 ± 11.9 y.o.; females: 60.7%) and 476 healthy participants (age: 33.3 ± 11.0 y.o.; females: 56.7%). We found significant relative hypoconnectivity within somatosensory motor (SMN), salience (SN) networks and between SMN, SN, dorsal attention (DAN), and visual (VN) networks in MDD patients. No significant differences were detected within the default mode (DMN) and frontoparietal networks (FPN). In addition, alterations in network organization were observed in terms of significantly lower network segregation of SMN in MDD patients. Although medicated patients showed significantly lower FC within DMN, FPN, and SN than unmedicated patients, there were no differences between medicated and unmedicated groups in terms of network organization in SMN. We conclude that the network organization of cortical networks, involved in processing of sensory information, might be a more stable neuroimaging marker for MDD than previously assumed alterations in higher-order neural networks like DMN and FPN.

Psychiatric disorders show heterogeneous symptoms and trajectories, with current nosology not accurately reflecting their molecular etiology and the variability and symptomatic overlap within and between diagnostic classes. This heterogeneity impedes timely and targeted treatment. Our study aimed to identify psychiatric patient clusters that share clinical and genetic features and may profit from similar therapies. We used high-dimensional data clustering on deep clinical data to identify transdiagnostic groups in a discovery sample (N = 1250) of healthy controls and patients diagnosed with depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, and other psychiatric disorders. We observed five diagnostically mixed clusters and ordered them based on severity. The least impaired cluster 0, containing most healthy controls, showed general well-being. Clusters 1–3 differed predominantly regarding levels of maltreatment, depression, daily functioning, and parental bonding. Cluster 4 contained most patients diagnosed with psychotic disorders and exhibited the highest severity in many dimensions, including medication load. Depressed patients were present in all clusters, indicating that we captured different disease stages or subtypes. We replicated all but the smallest cluster 1 in an independent sample (N = 622). Next, we analyzed genetic differences between clusters using polygenic scores (PGS) and the psychiatric family history. These genetic variables differed mainly between clusters 0 and 4 (prediction area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 81%; significant PGS: cross-disorder psychiatric risk, schizophrenia, and educational attainment). Our results confirm that psychiatric disorders consist of heterogeneous subtypes sharing molecular factors and symptoms. The identification of transdiagnostic clusters advances our understanding of the heterogeneity of psychiatric disorders and may support the development of personalized treatments.

Major depressive disorder is a serious psychiatric illness with a highly variable and heterogeneous clinical course. Due to the lack of consistent data from previous studies, the study of morphometric changes in major depressive disorder is still a major point of research requiring additional studies. The aim of the study presented here was to characterize and quantify regional gray matter abnormalities in a large sample of clinically well-characterized patients with major depressive disorder. For this study one-hundred thirty two patients with major depressive disorder and 132 age- and gender-matched healthy control participants were included, 35 with their first episode and 97 with recurrent depression. To analyse gray matter abnormalities, voxel-based morphometry (VBM8) was employed on T1 weighted MRI data. We performed whole-brain analyses as well as a region-of-interest approach on the hippocampal formation, anterior cingulate cortex and amygdala, correlating the number of depressive episodes. Compared to healthy control persons, patients showed a strong gray-matter reduction in the right anterior insula. In addition, region-of-interest analyses revealed significant gray-matter reductions in the hippocampal formation. The observed alterations were more severe in patients with recurrent depressive episodes than in patients with a first episode. The number of depressive episodes was negatively correlated with gray-matter volume in the right hippocampus and right amygdala. The anterior insula gray matter structure appears to be strongly affected in major depressive disorder and might play an important role in the neurobiology of depression. The hippocampal and amygdala volume loss cumulating with the number of episodes might be explained either by repeated neurotoxic stress or alternatively by higher relapse rates in patients showing hippocampal atrophy.

Alterations in regional subcortical brain volumes have been investigated as part of the efforts of an international consortium, ENIGMA, to identify reliable neural correlates of major depressive disorder (MDD). Given that subcortical structures are comprised of distinct subfields, we sought to build significantly from prior work by precisely mapping localized MDD‐related differences in subcortical regions using shape analysis. In this meta‐analysis of subcortical shape from the ENIGMA‐MDD working group, we compared 1,781 patients with MDD and 2,953 healthy controls (CTL) on individual measures of shape metrics (thickness and surface area) on the surface of seven bilateral subcortical structures: nucleus accumbens, amygdala, caudate, hippocampus, pallidum, putamen, and thalamus. Harmonized data processing and statistical analyses were conducted locally at each site, and findings were aggregated by meta‐analysis. Relative to CTL, patients with adolescent‐onset MDD (≤ 21 years) had lower thickness and surface area of the subiculum, cornu ammonis (CA) 1 of the hippocampus and basolateral amygdala (Cohen's d = −0.164 to −0.180). Relative to first‐episode MDD, recurrent MDD patients had lower thickness and surface area in the CA1 of the hippocampus and the basolateral amygdala (Cohen's d = −0.173 to −0.184). Our results suggest that previously reported MDD‐associated volumetric differences may be localized to specific subfields of these structures that have been shown to be sensitive to the effects of stress, with important implications for mapping treatments to patients based on specific neural targets and key clinical features.

Transgender individuals (TIs) show brain-structural alterations that differ from their biological sex as well as their perceived gender. To substantiate evidence that the brain structure of TIs differs from male and female, we use a combined multivariate and univariate approach. Gray matter segments resulting from voxel-based morphometry preprocessing of N = 1753 cisgender (CG) healthy participants were used to train (N = 1402) and validate (20% holdout N = 351) a support-vector machine classifying the biological sex. As a second validation, we classified N = 1104 patients with depression. A third validation was performed using the matched CG sample of the transgender women (TW) application sample. Subsequently, the classifier was applied to N = 26 TW. Finally, we compared brain volumes of CG-men, women, and TW-pre/post treatment cross-sex hormone treatment (CHT) in a univariate analysis controlling for sexual orientation, age, and total brain volume. The application of our biological sex classifier to the transgender sample resulted in a significantly lower true positive rate (TPR-male = 56.0%). The TPR did not differ between CG-individuals with (TPR-male = 86.9%) and without depression (TPR-male = 88.5%). The univariate analysis of the transgender application-sample revealed that TW-pre/post treatment show brain-structural differences from CG-women and CG-men in the putamen and insula, as well as the whole-brain analysis. Our results support the hypothesis that brain structure in TW differs from brain structure of their biological sex (male) as well as their perceived gender (female). This finding substantiates evidence that TIs show specific brain-structural alterations leading to a different pattern of brain structure than CG-individuals.

Patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) exhibit gray matter volume (GMV) reductions in limbic regions. Clinical variables—such as the number of depressive episodes—seem to affect volume alterations. It is unclear whether the observed cross-sectional GMV abnormalities in MDD change over time, and whether there is a longitudinal relationship between GMV changes and the course of disorder. We investigated T1 structural MRI images of 54 healthy control (HC) and 37 MDD patients in a 3-Tesla-MRI with a follow-up interval of 3 years. The Cat12 toolbox was used to analyze longitudinal data (p < 0.05, FWE-corrected, whole-brain analysis; flexible factorial design). Interaction effects indicated increasing GMV in MDD in the bilateral amygdala, and decreasing GMV in the right thalamus between T1 and T2. Further analyses comparing patients with a mild course of disorder (MCD; 0–1 depressive episode during the follow-up) to patients with a severe course of disorder (SCD; > 1 depressive episode during the follow-up) revealed increasing amygdalar volume in MCD. Our study confirms structural alterations in limbic regions in MDD patients and an association between these impairments and the course of disorder. Thus, we assume that the reported volumetric alterations in the left amygdala (i.e. volumetric normalization) are reversible and apparently driven by the clinical phenotype. Hence, these results support the assumption that the severity and progression of disease influences amygdalar GMV changes in MDD or vice versa.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated to affected brain wiring. Little is known whether these changes are stable over time and hence might represent a biological predisposition, or whether these are state markers of current disease severity and recovery after a depressive episode. Human white matter network (“connectome”) analysis via network science is a suitable tool to investigate the association between affected brain connectivity and MDD. This study examines structural connectome topology in 464 MDD patients (mean age: 36.6 years) and 432 healthy controls (35.6 years). MDD patients were stratified categorially by current disease status (acute vs. partial remission vs. full remission) based on DSM-IV criteria. Current symptom severity was assessed continuously via the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD). Connectome matrices were created via a combination of T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and tractography methods based on diffusion-weighted imaging. Global tract-based metrics were not found to show significant differences between disease status groups, suggesting conserved global brain connectivity in MDD. In contrast, reduced global fractional anisotropy (FA) was observed specifically in acute depressed patients compared to fully remitted patients and healthy controls. Within the MDD patients, FA in a subnetwork including frontal, temporal, insular, and parietal nodes was negatively associated with HAMD, an effect remaining when correcting for lifetime disease severity. Therefore, our findings provide new evidence of MDD to be associated with structural, yet dynamic, state-dependent connectome alterations, which covary with current disease severity and remission status after a depressive episode.

Cognitive deficits are central attendant symptoms of major depressive disorder (MDD) with a crucial impact in patients’ everyday life. Thus, it is of particular clinical importance to understand their pathophysiology. The aim of this study was to investigate a possible relationship between brain structure and cognitive performance in MDD patients in a well-characterized sample. N = 1007 participants (NMDD = 482, healthy controls (HC): NHC = 525) were selected from the FOR2107 cohort for this diffusion-tensor imaging study employing tract-based spatial statistics. We conducted a principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce neuropsychological test results, and to discover underlying factors of cognitive performance in MDD patients. We tested the association between fractional anisotropy (FA) and diagnosis (MDD vs. HC) and cognitive performance factors. The PCA yielded a single general cognitive performance factor that differed significantly between MDD patients and HC (P < 0.001). We found a significant main effect of the general cognitive performance factor in FA (Ptfce-FWE = 0.002) in a large bilateral cluster consisting of widespread frontotemporal-association fibers. In MDD patients this effect was independent of medication intake, the presence of comorbid diagnoses, the number of previous hospitalizations, and depressive symptomatology. This study provides robust evidence that white matter disturbances and cognitive performance seem to be associated. This association was independent of diagnosis, though MDD patients show more pronounced deficits and lower FA values in the global white matter fiber structure. This suggests a more general, rather than the depression-specific neurological basis for cognitive deficits.