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BackgroundHepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) is a novel serum viral marker. Recent studies showed that its level correlates with the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of serum HBsAg and HBcrAg levels at baseline to predict HCC.Methods1400 CHB patients who received nucleos(t)ide analogues (NA) treatment since December 2005 were included. Their stored serum samples at baseline were retrieved to measure HBsAg and HBcrAg levels. The primary endpoint was the cumulative incidence of HCC.Results85 (6.1%) patients developed HCC during a mean (± SD) follow-up duration of 45 ± 20 months. Serum HBcrAg level above 2.9 log10 U/mL at baseline was an independent factor for HCC in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative patients by multivariable analysis (adjusted hazard ratio 2.13, 95% CI 1.10–4.14, P = 0.025). HBcrAg above 2.9 log10 U/mL stratified the risk of HCC in HBeAg-negative patients with high PAGE-B score (P = 0.024 by Kaplan–Meier analysis), and possibly in cirrhotic patients (P = 0.08). Serum HBsAg level did not show any correlation with the risk of HCC in all patients or any subgroups.ConclusionSerum HBcrAg level predicts the risk of HCC accurately in NA-treated HBeAg-negative CHB patients.

Background and aimsThe aMAP score is a model that predicts risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis. Its performance in a ‘real world’ surveillance setting has not yet been ascertained.Patients and methodsWe had access to a cohort of 3473 individuals enrolled in a rigorously implemented and prospectively accrued surveillance programme (patients undergoing regular ultrasound and biomarker examination between 1998 and 2021). During this period 445 had HCC detected. Of these, 77.8% had early stage disease (within Milan criteria), permitting potentially curative therapy to be implemented in nearly 70% of cases. We applied the recently developed aMAP score to classify patients according to their initial aMAP score in to low, medium and high-risk groups as proposed in the original publication. The performance of the aMAP score was assessed according to the concordance-index and calibration (i.e. agreement between observed and predicted risk). Allowance was made for competing causes of death.ResultsThe aMAP score achieved an overall C-index of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.79–0.82) consistent with the initial report and was unaffected by allowance for competing causes of death. Sub-group analysis showed that the results did not change significantly according to gender, or aetiology. However, aMAP discrimination was greater for younger individuals (versus older individuals), and also for individuals without cirrhosis. The HCC incidence rate was 0.98, 7.05 and 29.1 events per 1000 person-years in the low-, moderate- and high-risk aMAP groups, respectively.ConclusionsThe results from this ‘real-world’ cohort demonstrate that risk stratification is a realistic prospect and that identification of a subgroup of chronic liver disease patients who have a very low risk of HCC is feasible.

Background Several preliminary reports have suggested the utility of ultrasound attenuation coefficient measurements based on B-mode ultrasound, such as iATT, for diagnosing steatotic liver disease. Nonetheless, evidence supporting such utility is lacking. This prospective study aimed to investigate whether iATT is highly concordant with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) and could well distinguish between steatosis grades. Methods A cohort of 846 individuals underwent both iATT and MRI-PDFF assessments. Steatosis grade was defined as grade 0 with MRI-PDFF < 5.2%, grade 1 with 5.2% MRI-PDFF < 11.3%, grade 2 with 11.3% MRI-PDFF < 17.1%, and grade 3 with MRI-PDFF of 17.1%. The reproducibility of iATT and MRI-PDFF was evaluated using the Bland–Altman analysis and intraclass correlation coefficients, whereas the diagnostic performance of each steatosis grade was examined using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Results The Bland–Altman analysis indicated excellent reproducibility with minimal fixed bias between iATT and MRI-PDFF. The area under the curve for distinguishing steatosis grades 1, 2, and 3 were 0.887, 0.882, and 0.867, respectively. A skin-to-capsula distance of ≥ 25 mm was identified as the only significant factor causing the discrepancy. No interaction between MRI-logPDFF and MRE-LSM on iATT values was observed. Conclusions Compared to MRI-PDFF, iATT showed excellent diagnostic accuracy in grading steatosis. iATT could be used as a diagnostic tool instead of MRI in clinical practice and trials. Trial registration This study was registered in the UMIN Clinical Trials Registry (UMIN000047411).

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of serum markers that reflect tumor progression, liver function, or liver fibrosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), focusing on how their impact changes over time after diagnosis. Alpha‐fetoprotein (AFP), des‐gamma‐carboxy prothrombin (DCP), albumin‐bilirubin (ALBI) score, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), and FIB‐4 index were measured at the time of initial non‐recurrent HCC diagnosis in 1669 patients between 1997 and 2016. Survival rates after diagnosis were compared after stratifying patients by these markers. Time‐dependent receiver‐operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was carried out to assess how these markers predict patient survival or death. Serum AFP and DCP levels, ALBI score, and APRI and FIB‐4 index were strongly correlated with HCC progression, liver function, and degree of liver fibrosis, respectively. Survival rates after diagnosis were significantly different when patients were stratified by these markers. In the time‐dependent ROC analysis, AFP and DCP had a high prognostic impact within 3 years of diagnosis but the impact decreased thereafter. In contrast, APRI and FIB‐4 index had higher prognostic impact 10 years after diagnosis. ALBI score had a high prognostic impact throughout the study period. Time‐dependent ROC analysis clearly showed changes in the prognostic importance of serum markers based on the duration after diagnosis. Whereas the prognostic impact of tumor progression markers was strong in the short term, liver fibrosis markers had higher prognostic impact long after diagnosis. Liver function had constant prognostic impact on patient survival after diagnosis. Although tumor progression, liver function, and the degree of liver fibrosis significantly predict the survivals of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, the impacts of these factors on patient prognosis are different over time.

BackgroundAtezolizumab plus bevacizumab showed superior progression-free and overall survival compared to sorafenib in the IMbrave150 trial. It would therefore be useful to compare the efficacy of lenvatinib and that of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab to determine if a benefit of one therapy against the other exists.ObjectiveThe aim of the present report was to apply a matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) to individual participant data (IPD) from patients treated with lenvatinib outside of randomized trials, to aggregate results derived from the IMbrave150 trial.Patients and methodsData from 455 patients who received lenvatinib as first-line systemic therapy for unresectable HCC represented the present IPD. Data inclusion were adapted to those reported in the IMbrave150 trial.ResultsOverall survival on atezolizumab plus bevacizumab proved to be superior to lenvatinib (log-rank: 0.001) with a hazard ratio of 0.59 (95% confidence interval 0.46–0.75). The number needed to treat ranged between seven in the first 12 months and five at the 15th month.ConclusionsThe present MAIC highlights that the combination of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab is superior to lenvatinib. However, updated data or sub-analyses of the IMbrave150 trial would provide more robust estimates for such a treatment comparison.

Background Fatty liver is frequently found in a general population, and it is critical to detect advanced fibrosis. FIB-4 index is considered a useful marker for evaluating liver fibrosis but the distribution of FIB-4 index in the general population remains unknown. Methods This cross-sectional study included residents who underwent ultrasonography at health checkups in Hiroshima or Iwate prefectures. The distribution of FIB-4 index in the total study population (N = 75,666) as well as in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) populations (N = 17,968) and non-drinkers without fatty liver populations (N = 47,222) was evaluated. The distribution of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels was also evaluated. Results The mean FIB-4 index in the total study population was 1.20 ± 0.63. FIB-4 index ≥ 2.67, which indicates a high risk of liver fibrosis, was found in 16.4% of those aged ≥ 70 years. In the NAFLD population, 58.1% of those in their 60 s and 88.1% of those ≥ 70 years met the criteria for referral to hepatologists by using the recommended FIB-4 index cutoff value (≥ 1.3). The mean FIB-4 index in the NAFLD population (1.12 ± 0.58) was significantly lower than in the non-drinkers without fatty liver (1.23 ± 0.63, p  < 0.0001). The non-drinkers without fatty liver tended to have higher AST relative to ALT levels (60.0% with AST/ALT > 1.0), whereas the results in the NAFLD population were opposite (14.8% with AST/ALT > 1.0). AST > ALT resulted in a higher FIB-4 index in non-drinkers without fatty liver due to the nature of FIB-4 index formula. Conclusions The cutoff value of FIB-4 index (≥ 1.3) for triaging the elderly people with fatty liver for referral to hepatologists should be reconsidered to avoid over-referral. Due to the impact of age and characteristics of AST/ALT ratios, there is no prospect of using FIB-4 index for primary screening for liver fibrosis in a general population of unknown presence or absence of liver disease, even though it can be easily calculated using routine clinical indices. It is desired to develop a non-invasive method for picking up cases with advanced fibrosis latent in the general population.

Background: Application of curative therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma is crucially dependent on underlying liver function. Using the recently described ALBI grade we examined the long-term impact of liver dysfunction on survival of early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. Methods: This cohort study comprised 2559 HCC patients from different geographic regions, all treated with curative intent. We also examined the relation between indocyanine green (ICG) clearance and ALBI score. Survival was measured from the date of treatment to the date of death or last follow-up. Results: The ALBI score correlated well with ICG clearance. Among those undergoing surgical resection, patients with ALBI grade-1 (good liver function) survived approximately twice as long as those with ALBI grade-2 (less good liver function), although more than 90% of these patients were classified as Child–Pugh (C-P) grade A. In the cohort receiving ablative therapies, there was a similar difference in survival between ALBI grade-1 and grade-2. Cox regression analysis confirmed that the ALBI score along with age, gender, aetiology and tumour factors (AFP, tumour size/number and vascular invasion) independently influenced survival in HCC patients receiving curative treatments. Conclusions: The ALBI score represents a simple approach to the assessment of liver function in patients with HCC. After potentially curative therapy, those with ALBI grade-1 survived approximately twice as long as those with ALBI grade-2. These data suggest that ALBI grade-1 patients are appropriately treated with surgical resection whereas ALBI grade-2 patients may, where the option exists, be more suitable for liver transplantation or the less invasive curative ablative therapies.

Background: Background liver function in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has improved remarkably with advances in various treatments. Recently, the Child-Pugh classification (CPC) system has been recognized as limited in its ability to assess patients with good hepatic reserve. We compared the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, which is suitable for a more detailed evaluation of patients with good liver function, with CPC over a 30-year period. Methods: A total of 2,347 patients were analyzed. Patients were stratified by year of diagnosis into 6 groups: Group A (1990–1994, n = 376), Group B (1995–1999, n = 434), Group C (2000–2004, n = 438), Group D (2005–2009, n = 444), Group E (2010–2014, n = 392), and Group F (2015–2018, n = 263). We compared ALBI grade and CPC across the groups. Results: The prevalence of patients with CPC A at diagnosis increased throughout the study period, reaching nearly 80% in Groups E and F (p < 0.001). By contrast, the percentage of patients with ALBI grade 1 disease remained approximately 50% in Groups E and F (p < 0.001). Modified ALBI (mALBI) grade 2a corresponds to patients with CPC A who have poor hepatic function. There were significant survival differences between patients with mALBI grade 1 versus 2a, 1 versus 2b, and 2a versus 2b disease, respectively (p < 0.0001), in patients with CPC A. Conclusions: CPC is not suitable for assessing patients with recently diagnosed HCC and good remnant hepatic function. In such patients with HCC, the prognosis can be stratified by ALBI grade rather than CPC.

BackgroundEven though both interferon (IFN)-based and direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies against hepatitis C virus (HCV) reduce the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), post-sustained virological response (SVR) patients remain at elevated risk of HCC.MethodsA total of 4620 patients who achieved SVR were enrolled in this retrospective cohort study. After excluding patients who had a history of HCC or developed HCC within 1 year and whose follow-up period was less than 1 year and who were positive for HBsAg, we investigated the association between clinical characteristics and HCC development after SVR in the remaining 3771 patients.ResultsMedian observation period was 41 months. We confirmed known risk factors. In addition, we found that PNPLA3 and HLA-DQB1 polymorphisms were associated with HCC after SVR. Finally, we propose an estimation model for the incidence of HCC after SVR. Based on gender, FIB-4 index, AFP, and PNPLA3 polymorphism, about 18% of all patients were classified as having high risk, with a cumulative incidence rate (CIR) at 5 years of 16.5%. Another 17% were classified as having moderate risk with a CIR of 7.6%. The remaining 65% showed a CIR of 0.5%. The effect of PNPLA3 polymorphism might be more pronounced in patients with lower body mass index (BMI) and without diabetes mellitus compared to those with higher BMI and diabetes mellitus.ConclusionsWe demonstrated that PNPLA3 and HLA-DQB1 polymorphisms were associated with HCC after SVR. These findings might be useful to inform risk stratification for HCC surveillance after SVR.

Background/Aim Presently, there are no therapeutic options for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (u‐HCC) patients who are intolerant to sorafenib or regorafenib failure. There have been no reports with detailed clinical findings of lenvatinib (LEN), a newly developed first‐line tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI), obtained in real‐world practice. We aimed to elucidate the therapeutic efficacy of LEN. Materials/Methods From March to August 2018, 105 u‐HCC patients were treated with LEN. Following exclusion of those who started with a reduced LEN dose and/or had a short observation period (<2 weeks), 77 patients (72.0 ± 8.9 years, 59 males, 8 mg/12 mg = 49/28, Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan 6th [LCSGJ]‐TNM stage II/III/IVa/IVb = 8/28/4/37, and American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control 8th [AJCC/UICC]‐TNM stage IB:II:IIIA:IIIB:IVA:IVB = 2:27:6:5:9:28) were divided into two groups (TKI naïve [n = 33] and TKI experienced [n = 44], including 11 with regorafenib history). Therapeutic response was evaluated using mRECIST. Clinical data were retrospectively evaluated. Results There were significant differences in age (74.6 ± 11.2 vs 70.0 ± 5.9 years, P = 0.040), LCSGJ‐TNM (II:III:IVa:IVb = 8:12:1:12 vs 0:16:3:25, P = 0.006), and AJCC/UICC‐TNM (IB:II:IIIA:IIIB:IVA:IVB = 2:17:1:1:4:8 vs 0:10:5:4:5:20, P = 0.028), while hepatic reserve function, adverse event (AE) profiles, and progression‐free survival (89.7%/80.4% vs 90.5%/80.1%, P = 0.499) and overall survival (96.7%/96.7% vs 100%/92.3%, P = 0.769) after 4 and 12 weeks were not significantly different between the TKI‐naïve and TKI‐experienced groups. Overall response rate and disease control rate at 4 weeks (n = 52) were 38.5% and 80.8%, respectively, and 32.4% and 70.3%, respectively, at 12 weeks (n = 37). A significant decline in log10 AFP from the baseline to 4 weeks after introducing LEN was observed in patients with PR and SD (2.047 ± 1.148 vs 1.796 ± 1.179, P < 0.001). Conclusion Regardless of past TKI therapy, therapeutic response and AEs after introducing LEN were similar. LEN may be an important treatment for the present unmet need regarding TKI treatment against u‐HCC. Presently, there are no therapeutic options for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (u‐HCC) patients who are intolerant to sorafenib or regorafenib failure, and there have been no reports with detailed clinical findings of lenvatinib (LEN), a newly developed first‐line tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI), obtained in real‐world practice. Regardless of past TKI therapy, therapeutic response and adverse events after introducing LEN were similar. LEN may be an important treatment for the present unmet need regarding TKI treatment for u‐HCC.