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Objective To investigate the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular mortality, acute coronary events, and stroke events in people aged 60 and older, and to calculate and report risk advancement periods for cardiovascular mortality in addition to traditional epidemiological relative risk measures.Design Individual participant meta-analysis using data from 25 cohorts participating in the CHANCES consortium. Data were harmonised, analysed separately employing Cox proportional hazard regression models, and combined by meta-analysis.Results Overall, 503 905 participants aged 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37 952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1.49) for former smokers compared with never smokers. Corresponding summary estimates for risk advancement periods were 5.50 years (4.25 to 6.75) for current smokers and 2.16 years (1.38 to 2.39) for former smokers. The excess risk in smokers increased with cigarette consumption in a dose-response manner, and decreased continuously with time since smoking cessation in former smokers. Relative risk estimates for acute coronary events and for stroke events were somewhat lower than for cardiovascular mortality, but patterns were similar.Conclusions Our study corroborates and expands evidence from previous studies in showing that smoking is a strong independent risk factor of cardiovascular events and mortality even at older age, advancing cardiovascular mortality by more than five years, and demonstrating that smoking cessation in these age groups is still beneficial in reducing the excess risk.

Study objective: To investigate the association between cold periods and coronary events, and the extent to which climate, sex, age, and previous cardiac history increase risk during cold weather. Design: A hierarchical analyses of populations from the World Health Organisation’s MONICA project. Setting: Twenty four populations from the WHO’s MONICA project, a 21 country register made between 1980 and 1995. Patients: People aged 35–64 years who had a coronary event. Main results: Daily rates of coronary events were correlated with the average temperature over the current and previous three days. In cold periods, coronary event rates increased more in populations living in warm climates than in populations living in cold climates, where the increases were slight. The increase was greater in women than in men, especially in warm climates. On average, the odds for women having an event in the cold periods were 1.07 higher than the odds for men (95% posterior interval: 1.03 to 1.11). The effects of cold periods were similar in those with and without a history of a previous myocardial infarction. Conclusions: Rates of coronary events increased during comparatively cold periods, especially in warm climates. The smaller increases in colder climates suggest that some events in warmer climates are preventable. It is suggested that people living in warm climates, particularly women, should keep warm on cold days.

Abstract Background Differential exposure to lifestyle factors may mediate the association between education and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, differential susceptibility (the effect of exposure to the same “dose” of risk factors differs across groups) may also elevate CVD risk but the causal pathways remain unclear. Allostatic Load (AL) is a marker of cumulative biological burden resulting from mal-adaptation to chronic stressors. We aimed to examine the role of differential exposure and susceptibility to AL and other factors in coronary heart disease (CHD) educational gradients in Europe. Methods 51,328 35-74-year-old participants originally free of CVD from 21 European cohorts in the BiomarCaRE consortium were identified and followed for a median of 10 years to their first CHD event. We defined an AL score as the sum of z-scores of 8 markers from the cardiovascular, metabolic, and inflammatory systems. To investigate the mediating role of AL (and smoking, alcohol and BMI) on educational differences in CHD incidence we applied marginal structural models and three-way decomposition on gender-specific additive hazards models. Results AL was a significant mediator of the association between educational status and CHD. The highest proportion mediated was observed in women, with 28% (95%CI 20% to 44%) attributable to differential exposure and 8% (95%CI 0% to 16%) to differential susceptibility. In men, AL mediated 16% of the increased CHD risk in the less educated, with 2% (95%CI 0%-6%) attributable to differential susceptibility. The effects of smoking, alcohol and BMI were relatively small for men and women, with a limited role of differential susceptibility. Conclusions While we found evidence of differential susceptibility to AL on CHD, effects were modest and the mediating effect of AL (and other lifestyle factors) was predominately via differential exposure. Controlling disproportionate exposure to AL may help reduce CHD morbidity among those with lower education. Key messages Educational inequalities in coronary heart disease in Europe were predominantly driven by differential exposure rather than susceptibility to allostatic load and other lifestyle factors. Controlling disproportionate exposure to AL may help reduce coronary heart disease morbidity among those with lower education.

Study objective: To assess total and cause specific mortality among participants and non-participants of large population based health surveys. Design: A prospective follow up study. Baseline surveys were conducted in 1972, 1977, 1982, 1987, and 1992. Study end points were overall, cardiovascular, cancer and violent mortality, and deaths related to smoking and alcohol. Study cohorts were followed up until the end of 2000 through computerised record linkage. All analyses were adjusted for age. Setting: Finland. Participants: Participants and non-participants of five population based risk factor surveys. The samples included 54 372 men and women aged 25 to 64 years at baseline. Main results: The average participation rate was 81.7% among men and 87% among women. At eight year follow up, the non-participating men had twice and non-participating women 2.5-fold higher overall mortality than the participating men and women. Non-participants had also significantly higher cause specific mortality, except cancer and smoking related mortality among women. Relative differences in mortality were largest in violent and alcohol related deaths. Non-participants had considerably higher overall mortality than smoking participants, and their mortality was threefold compared with non-smoking participants. Conclusions: Observed differences in mortality show that health behaviour and health status substantially differ between non-participants and participants. Low participation rate may considerably bias the results of population based health surveys.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the relationship between hypercholesterolaemia, age and BMI among females and males. DESIGN: Population-based cross-sectional survey. SUBJECTS: The data came from the initial surveys of the WHO MONICA Project. In all, 27 populations with 48 283 subjects (24 017 males and 24 266 females) aged 25–64 y were used for the analysis. MEASUREMENTS: Total cholesterol, weight, height, BMI, prevalence of hypercholesterolaemia (PHC) defined as cholesterol ≥6.5 mmol/l, and the prevalence of obesity (POB) defined as BMI ≥30 kg/m 2 . RESULTS: PHC increased with age, with PHC in males being significantly higher than in females at age range 25–49 y and significantly lower than in females at age range 50–64 y. Age-related increase in hypercholesterolaemia was steeper in females than in males. There was a statistically significant positive association between hypercholesterolaemia and BMI. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed a negative statistically significant ( P <0.001) effect modification involving age and BMI on the risk of having hypercholesterolaemia both in females and males. The relation between PHC and BMI became weaker in higher age groups, with no statistically significant association in females aged 50–64 y. CONCLUSION: Public health measures should be directed at the prevention of obesity in young adults since the strongest effect of obesity on the risk of hypercholesterolaemia has been found in subjects aged 25–39 y.

OBJECTIVES: This study assessed the consistency and magnitude of the association between educational level and relative body weight in populations with widely different prevalences of over-weight and investigated possible changes in the association over 10 years. METHODS: Differences in age-adjusted mean body mass index (BMI) between the highest and the lowest tertiles of years of schooling were calculated for 26 populations in the initial and final surveys of the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA (Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease) Project. The data are derived from random population samples, including more than 42,000 men and women aged 35 to 64 years in the initial survey (1979-1989) and almost 35,000 in the final survey (1989-1996). RESULTS: For women, almost all populations showed a statistically significant inverse association between educational level and BMI; the difference between the highest and the lowest educational tertiles ranged from -3.3 to 0.4 kg/m2. For men, the difference ranged from -1.5 to 2.2 kg/m2. In about two thirds of the populations, the differences in BMI between the educational levels increased over the 10-year period. CONCLUSION: Lower education was associated with higher BMI in about half of the male and in almost all of the female populations, and the differences in relative body weight between educational levels increased over the study period. Thus, socioeconomic inequality in health consequences of obesity may increase in many countries.

Background/Objectives: It is unknown if wine, beer and spirit intake lead to a similar association with diabetes. We studied the association between alcoholic beverage preference and type 2 diabetes incidence in persons who reported to consume alcohol. Subjects/Methods: Ten European cohort studies from the Consortium on Health and Ageing: Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States were included, comprising participant data of 62 458 adults who reported alcohol consumption at baseline. Diabetes incidence was based on documented and/or self-reported diagnosis during follow-up. Preference was defined when ⩾70% of total alcohol consumed was either beer, wine or spirits. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were computed using Cox proportional hazard regression. Single-cohort HRs were pooled by random-effects meta-analysis. Results: Beer, wine or spirit preference was not related to diabetes risk compared with having no preference. The pooled HRs were HR 1.06 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93, 1.20) for beer, HR 0.99 (95% CI 0.88, 1.11) for wine, and HR 1.19 (95% CI 0.97, 1.46) for spirit preference. Absolute wine intake, adjusted for total alcohol, was associated with a lower diabetes risk: pooled HR per 6 g/day was 0.96 (95% CI 0.93, 0.99). A spirit preference was related to a higher diabetes risk in those with a higher body mass index, in men and women separately, but not after excluding persons with prevalent diseases. Conclusions: This large individual-level meta-analysis among persons who reported alcohol consumption revealed that the preference for beer, wine, and spirits was similarly associated with diabetes incidence compared with having no preference.

Background: Cohort studies have shown that smoking has a substantial influence on coronary heart disease mortality in young people. Population based data on non-fatal events have been sparse, however. Objective: To study the impact of smoking on the risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction (MI) in young middle age people. Methods: From 1985 to 1994 all non-fatal MI events in the age group 35–64 were registered in men and women in the WHO MONICA (multinational monitoring of trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease) project populations (18 762 events in men and 4047 in women from 32 populations from 21 countries). In the same populations and age groups 65 741 men and 66 717 women participated in the surveys of risk factors (overall response rate 72%). The relative risk of non-fatal MI for current smokers was compared with non-smokers, by sex and five year age group. Results: The prevalence of smoking in people aged 35–39 years who experienced non-fatal MI events was 81% in men and 77% in women. It declined with increasing age to 45% in men aged 60–64 years and 36% in women, respectively. In the 35–39 years age group the relative risk of non-fatal MI for smokers was 4.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.9 to 6.1) in men and 5.3 (95% CI 3.2 to 8.7) in women, and the population attributable fractions were 65% and 55%, respectively. Conclusions: During the study period more than half of the non-fatal MIs occurring in young middle age people can be attributed to smoking.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between secular trends in energy supply and body mass index (BMI) among several countries. DESIGN: Aggregate level analyses of annually reported country food data against anthropometric data collected in independent cross-sectional samples from 34 populations in 21 countries from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s. SUBJECTS: Population randomly selected participants aged 35–64 y. MEASUREMENTS: BMI data were obtained from the WHO MONICA Project. Food energy supply data were derived from the Food Balance Sheet of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. RESULTS: Mean BMI as well as the prevalence of overweight (BMI ≥25 kg/m 2 ) increased in virtually all Western European countries, Australia, the USA, and China. Decreasing trends in BMI were seen in Central and Eastern European countries. Increasing trends in total energy supply per capita were found in most high-income countries and China while decreasing trends existed in Eastern European countries. Between country differences in temporal trends of total energy supply per capita explained 41% of the variation of trends in mean BMI; the effect was similar upon the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Trends in percent of energy supply from total fat per capita had a slight effect on the trends in mean BMI (+7% increment in R 2 ) when the total energy supply per capita was adjusted for, while energy supply from total sweeteners per capita had no additional effect. CONCLUSION: Increasing energy supply is closely associated with the increase of overweight and obesity in western countries. This emphasizes the importance of dietary issues when coping with the obesity epidemic.