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Using reports of forest losses caused directly by large scale windstorms (or primary damage, PD) from the European forest institute database (comprising 276 PD reports from 1951–2010), total growing stock (TGS) statistics of European forests and the daily North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, we identify a statistically significant change in storm intensity in Western, Central and Northern Europe (17 countries). Using the validated set of storms, we found that the year 1990 represents a change-point at which the average intensity of the most destructive storms indicated by PD/TGS > 0.08% increased by more than a factor of three. A likelihood ratio test provides strong evidence that the change-point represents a real shift in the statistical behaviour of the time series. All but one of the seven catastrophic storms (PD/TGS > 0.2%) occurred since 1990. Additionally, we detected a related decrease in September–November PD/TGS and an increase in December–February PD/TGS. Our analyses point to the possibility that the impact of climate change on the North Atlantic storms hitting Europe has started during the last two and half decades.

Heterogeneous nucleation of water vapour on insoluble nuclei is a phenomenon that can induce atmospheric water and ice cloud formation. However, modelling of the phenomenon is hampered by the fact that the predictive capability of the classical heterogeneous nucleation theory is rather poor. A reliable theoretical description of the influence of different types of water-insoluble nuclei in triggering the water condensation or ice deposition would help to decrease uncertainty in large-scale model simulations. In this paper we extend a recently formulated adsorption theory of heterogeneous nucleation to be applicable to highly curved surfaces, and test the theory against laboratory data for water vapour nucleation on silica, titanium dioxide and silver oxide nanoparticles. We show that unlike the classical heterogeneous nucleation theory, the new theory is able to quantitatively predict the experimental results.

The physical phase state (solid, semi-solid, or liquid) of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) particles has important implications for a number of atmospheric processes. We report the phase state of SOA particles spanning a wide range of oxygen to carbon ratios (O / C), used here as a surrogate for SOA oxidation level, produced in a flow tube reactor by photo-oxidation of various atmospherically relevant surrogate anthropogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The phase state of laboratory-generated SOA was determined by the particle bounce behavior after inertial impaction on a polished steel substrate. The measured bounce fraction was evaluated as a function of relative humidity and SOA oxidation level (O / C) measured by an Aerodyne high resolution time of flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF AMS). The main findings of the study are: (1) biogenic and anthropogenic SOA particles are found to be amorphous solid or semi-solid based on the measured bounced fraction (BF), which was typically higher than 0.6 on a 0 to 1 scale. A decrease in the BF is observed for most systems after the SOA is exposed to relative humidity of at least 80% RH, corresponding to a RH at impaction of 55%. (2) Long-chain alkanes have a low BF (indicating a \"liquid-like\", less viscous phase) particles at low oxidation levels (BF < 0.2 ± 0.05 for O / C = 0.1). However, BF increases substantially upon increasing oxidation. (3) Increasing the concentration of sulphuric acid (H2SO4) in solid SOA particles (here tested for longifolene SOA) causes a decrease in BF levels. (4) In the majority of cases the bounce behavior of the various SOA systems did not show correlation with the particle O / C. Rather, the molar mass of the gas-phase VOC precursor showed a positive correlation with the resistance to the RH-induced phase change of the formed SOA particles.

Organic compounds with surfactant properties are commonly found in atmospheric aerosol particles. Surface activity can significantly influence the cloud droplet forming ability of these particles. We have studied the cloud droplet formation by two-component particles comprising one of the organic surfactants sodium octanoate, sodium decanoate, sodium dodecanoate, and sodium dodecyl sulfate, mixed with sodium chloride. Critical supersaturations were measured with a static diffusion cloud condensation nucleus counter (Wyoming CCNC-100B). Results were modeled from Köhler theory applying three different representations of surfactant properties in terms of surfactant surface partitioning and reduced droplet surface tension. We here confirm previous results for single-component organic surfactant particles, that experimental critical supersaturations are greatly underpredicted, if reduced surface tension is used while ignoring the effects of surface partitioning in droplets. Furthermore, disregarding surfactant properties by ignoring surface partitioning and assuming the constant surface tension of pure water can also lead to significant underpredictions of experimental critical supersaturations. For the mixed particles comprising less than 50% by mass of surfactant, this approach however still provides a good description of the observed droplet activation. A comprehensive account for surfactant properties, including both surface tension reduction and effects of surface partitioning in activating droplets, generally predicts experimental critical supersaturations well.

Insufficient evidence exists for a viable choice between long- and short-term psychotherapies in the treatment of psychiatric disorders. The present trial compares the effectiveness of one long-term therapy and two short-term therapies in the treatment of mood and anxiety disorders. In the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study, 326 out-patients with mood (84.7%) or anxiety disorder (43.6%) were randomly assigned to three treatment groups (long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy, short-term psychodynamic psychotherapy, and solution-focused therapy) and were followed up for 3 years from start of treatment. Primary outcome measures were depressive symptoms measured by self-report Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and observer-rated Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD), and anxiety symptoms measured by self-report Symptom Check List Anxiety Scale (SCL-90-Anx) and observer-rated Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HAMA). A statistically significant reduction of symptoms was noted for BDI (51%), HAMD (36%), SCL-90-Anx (41%) and HAMA (38%) during the 3-year follow-up. Short-term psychodynamic psychotherapy was more effective than long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy during the first year, showing 15-27% lower scores for the four outcome measures. During the second year of follow-up no significant differences were found between the short-term and long-term therapies, and after 3 years of follow-up long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy was more effective with 14-37% lower scores for the outcome variables. No statistically significant differences were found in the effectiveness of the short-term therapies. Short-term therapies produce benefits more quickly than long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy but in the long run long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy is superior to short-term therapies. However, more research is needed to determine which patients should be given long-term psychotherapy for the treatment of mood or anxiety disorders.

The change in the mean temperature in Finland is investigated with a dynamic linear model in order to define the sign and the magnitude of the trend in the temperature time series within the last 166 years. The data consists of gridded monthly mean temperatures. The grid has a 10 km spatial resolution, and it was created by interpolating a homogenized temperature series measured at Finnish weather stations. Seasonal variation in the temperature and the autocorrelation structure of the time series were taken account in the model. Finnish temperature time series exhibits a statistically significant trend, which is consistent with human-induced global warming. The mean temperature has risen very likely over 2 °C in the years 1847–2013, which amounts to 0.14 °C/decade. The warming after the late 1960s has been more rapid than ever before. The increase in the temperature has been highest in November, December and January. Also spring months (March, April, May) have warmed more than the annual average, but the change in summer months has been less evident. The detected warming exceeds the global trend clearly, which matches the postulation that the warming is stronger at higher latitudes.

Laboratory experiments investigated the relationship between oxidation level and hygroscopic properties of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) particles generated via OH radical oxidation in an aerosol flow reactor. The hygroscopic growth factor at 90% RH (HGF90%), the CCN activity (κORG,CCN) and the level of oxidation (atomic O:C ratio) of the SOA particles were measured. Both HGF90% and κORG,CCN increased with O:C; the HGF90% varied linearly with O:C, while κORG,CCN mostly followed a nonlinear trend. An average HGF90% of 1.25 and κORG,CCN of 0.19 were measured for O:C of 0.65, in agreement with results reported for ambient data. The κORG values estimated from the HGF90% (κORG,HGF) were 20 to 50% lower than paired κORG,CCN values for all SOA particles except 1,3,5‐trimethylbenzene (TMB), the least hygroscopic of the SOA systems. Within the limitations of instrumental capabilities, we show that differences in hygroscopic behavior among the investigated SOA systems may correspond to differences in elemental composition.

During 17 years of follow-up, 187 incident type 2 diabetes cases were identified from a nationwide registry of patients receiving medication reimbursement (7), and these cases were linked to the study population by the unique social security numbers assigned to Finnish citizens. The strengths of this study include its longitudinal design and the use of serum 25OHD concentration as an indicator of vitamin D status, reflecting vitamin D obtained from diet, supplements, and cutaneous synthesis (8).

Aerosol nucleation occurs frequently in the atmosphere and is an important source of particle number. Observations suggest that nucleated particles are capable of growing to sufficiently large sizes that they act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), but some global models have reported that CCN concentrations are only modestly sensitive to large changes in nucleation rates. Here we present a novel approach for using long-term size distribution observations to evaluate a global aerosol model's ability to predict formation rates of CCN from nucleation and growth events. We derive from observations at five locations nucleation-relevant metrics such as nucleation rate of particles at diameter of 3 nm (J3), diameter growth rate (GR), particle survival probability (SP), condensation and coagulation sinks, and CCN formation rate (J100). These quantities are also derived for a global microphysical model, GEOS-Chem-TOMAS, and compared to the observations on a daily basis. Using GEOS-Chem-TOMAS, we simulate nucleation events predicted by ternary (with a 10−5 tuning factor) or activation nucleation over one year and find that the model slightly understates the observed annual-average CCN formation mostly due to bias in the nucleation rate predictions, but by no more than 50% in the ternary simulations. At the two locations expected to be most impacted by large-scale regional nucleation, Hyytiälä and San Pietro Capofiume, predicted annual-average CCN formation rates are within 34 and 2% of the observations, respectively. Model-predicted annual-average growth rates are within 25% across all sites but also show a slight tendency to underestimate the observations, at least in the ternary nucleation simulations. On days that the growing nucleation mode reaches 100 nm, median single-day survival probabilities to 100 nm for the model and measurements range from less than 1–6% across the five locations we considered; however, this does not include particles that may eventually grow to 100 nm after the first day. This detailed exploration of new particle formation and growth dynamics adds support to the use of global models as tools for assessing the contribution of microphysical processes such as nucleation to the total number and CCN budget.

Organic aerosol (OA) particles affect climate forcing and human health, but their sources and evolution remain poorly characterized. We present a unifying model framework describing the atmospheric evolution of OA that is constrained by high-time-resolution measurements of its composition, volatility, and oxidation state. OA and OA precursor gases evolve by becoming increasingly oxidized, less volatile, and more hygroscopic, leading to the formation of oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA), with concentrations comparable to those of sulfate aerosol throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Our model framework captures the dynamic aging behavior observed in both the atmosphere and laboratory: It can serve as a basis for improving parameterizations in regional and global models.