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result(s) for
"Lafaysse, Matthieu"
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Black carbon and dust alter the response of mountain snow cover under climate change
2022
By darkening the snow surface, mineral dust and black carbon (BC) deposition enhances snowmelt and triggers numerous feedbacks. Assessments of their long-term impact at the regional scale are still largely missing despite the environmental and socio-economic implications of snow cover changes. Here we show, using numerical simulations, that dust and BC deposition advanced snowmelt by 17 ± 6 days on average in the French Alps and the Pyrenees over the 1979–2018 period. BC and dust also advanced by 10-15 days the peak melt water runoff, a substantial effect on the timing of water resources availability. We also demonstrate that the decrease in BC deposition since the 1980s moderates the impact of current warming on snow cover decline. Hence, accounting for changes in light-absorbing particles deposition is required to improve the accuracy of snow cover reanalyses and climate projections, that are crucial for better understanding the past and future evolution of mountain social-ecological systems.
Black carbon and dust deposition advanced the end of the snow season by 17 days on average over the last 40 years in the French Alps and the Pyrenees. The warming-induced snow cover decline was partly offset by decreases in black carbon deposition observed since the 1980s.
Journal Article
Scientific and Human Errors in a Snow Model Intercomparison
2021
Twenty-seven models participated in the Earth System Model–Snow Model Intercomparison Project (ESM-SnowMIP), the most data-rich MIP dedicated to snow modeling. Our findings do not support the hypothesis advanced by previous snow MIPs: evaluating models against more variables and providing evaluation datasets extended temporally and spatially does not facilitate identification of key new processes requiring improvement to model snow mass and energy budgets, even at point scales. In fact, the same modeling issues identified by previous snow MIPs arose: albedo is a major source of uncertainty, surface exchange parameterizations are problematic, and individual model performance is inconsistent. This lack of progress is attributed partly to the large number of human errors that led to anomalous model behavior and to numerous resubmissions. It is unclear how widespread such errors are in our field and others; dedicated time and resources will be needed to tackle this issue to prevent highly sophisticated models and their research outputs from being vulnerable because of avoidable human mistakes. The design of and the data available to successive snow MIPs were also questioned. Evaluation of models against bulk snow properties was found to be sufficient for some but inappropriate for more complex snow models whose skills at simulating internal snow properties remained untested. Discussions between the authors of this paper on the purpose of MIPs revealed varied, and sometimes contradictory, motivations behind their participation. These findings started a collaborative effort to adapt future snow MIPs to respond to the diverse needs of the community.
Journal Article
A multilayer physically based snowpack model simulating direct and indirect radiative impacts of light-absorbing impurities in snow
2017
Light-absorbing impurities (LAIs) decrease snow albedo, increasing the amount of solar energy absorbed by the snowpack. Its most intuitive and direct impact is to accelerate snowmelt. Enhanced energy absorption in snow also modifies snow metamorphism, which can indirectly drive further variations of snow albedo in the near-infrared part of the solar spectrum because of the evolution of the near-surface snow microstructure. New capabilities have been implemented in the detailed snowpack model SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus (referred to as Crocus) to account for impurities' deposition and evolution within the snowpack and their direct and indirect impacts. Once deposited, the model computes impurities' mass evolution until snow melts out, accounting for scavenging by meltwater. Taking advantage of the recent inclusion of the spectral radiative transfer model TARTES (Two-stream Analytical Radiative TransfEr in Snow model) in Crocus, the model explicitly represents the radiative impacts of light-absorbing impurities in snow. The model was evaluated at the Col de Porte experimental site (French Alps) during the 2013–2014 snow season against in situ standard snow measurements and spectral albedo measurements. In situ meteorological measurements were used to drive the snowpack model, except for aerosol deposition fluxes. Black carbon (BC) and dust deposition fluxes used to drive the model were extracted from simulations of the atmospheric model ALADIN-Climate. The model simulates snowpack evolution reasonably, providing similar performances to our reference Crocus version in terms of snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE), near-surface specific surface area (SSA) and shortwave albedo. Since the reference empirical albedo scheme was calibrated at the Col de Porte, improvements were not expected to be significant in this study. We show that the deposition fluxes from the ALADIN-Climate model provide a reasonable estimate of the amount of light-absorbing impurities deposited on the snowpack except for extreme deposition events which are greatly underestimated. For this particular season, the simulated melt-out date advances by 6 to 9 days due to the presence of light-absorbing impurities. The model makes it possible to apportion the relative importance of direct and indirect impacts of light-absorbing impurities on energy absorption in snow. For the snow season considered, the direct impact in the visible part of the solar spectrum accounts for 85 % of the total impact, while the indirect impact related to accelerated snow metamorphism decreasing near-surface specific surface area and thus decreasing near-infrared albedo accounts for 15 % of the total impact. Our model results demonstrate that these relative proportions vary with time during the season, with potentially significant impacts for snowmelt and avalanche prediction.
Journal Article
Saharan dust events in the European Alps: role in snowmelt and geochemical characterization
2019
The input of mineral dust from arid regions impacts snow optical properties. The induced albedo reduction generally alters the melting dynamics of the snowpack, resulting in earlier snowmelt. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of dust depositions on the melting dynamics of snowpack at a high-elevation site (2160 m) in the European Alps (Torgnon, Aosta Valley, Italy) during three hydrological years (2013–2016). These years were characterized by several Saharan dust events that deposited significant amounts of mineral dust in the European Alps. We quantify the shortening of the snow season due to dust deposition by comparing observed snow depths and those simulated with the Crocus model accounting, or not, for the impact of impurities. The model was run and tested using meteorological data from an automated weather station. We propose the use of repeated digital images for tracking dust deposition and resurfacing in the snowpack. The good agreement between model prediction and digital images allowed us to propose the use of an RGB index (i.e. snow darkening index – SDI) for monitoring dust on snow using images from a digital camera. We also present a geochemical characterization of dust reaching the Alpine chain during spring in 2014. Elements found in dust were classified as a function of their origin and compared with Saharan sources. A strong enrichment in Fe was observed in snow containing Saharan dust. In our case study, the comparison between modelling results and observations showed that impurities deposited in snow anticipated the disappearance of snow up to 38 d a out of a total 7 months of typical snow duration. This happened for the season 2015–2016 that was characterized by a strong dust deposition event. During the other seasons considered here (2013–2014 and 2014–2015), the snow melt-out date was 18 and 11 d earlier, respectively. We conclude that the effect of the Saharan dust is expected to reduce snow cover duration through the snow-albedo feedback. This process is known to have a series of further hydrological and phenological feedback effects that should be characterized in future research.
Journal Article
57 years (1960–2017) of snow and meteorological observations from a mid-altitude mountain site (Col de Porte, France, 1325 m of altitude)
2019
In this paper, we introduce and provide access to daily (1960–2017) and hourly (1993–2017) datasets of snow and meteorological data measured at the Col de Porte site, 1325 m a.s.l., Chartreuse, France. Site metadata and ancillary measurements such as soil properties and masks of the incident solar radiation are also provided. Weekly snow profiles are made available from September 1993 to March 2018. A detailed study of the uncertainties originating from both measurement errors and spatial variability within the measurement site is provided for several variables. We show that the estimates of the ratio of diffuse-to-total shortwave broadband irradiance is affected by an uncertainty of ±0.21 (no unit). The estimated root mean square deviation, which mainly represents spatial variability, is ±10 cm for snow depth, ±25 kg m−2 for the water equivalent of snow cover (SWE), and ±1 K for soil temperature (±0.4 K during the snow season). The daily dataset can be used to quantify the effect of climate change at this site, with a decrease of the mean snow depth (1 December to 30 April) of 39 cm from the 1960–1990 period to the 1990–2017 period (40 % of the mean snow depth for 1960–1990) and an increase in temperature of +0.90 K for the same periods. Finally, we show that the daily and hourly datasets are useful and appropriate for driving and evaluating a snowpack model over such a long period. The data are placed on the repository of the Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) data centre: https://doi.org/10.17178/CRYOBSCLIM.CDP.2018.
Journal Article
Evaluation of Sub-Kilometric Numerical Simulations of C-Band Radar Backscatter over the French Alps against Sentinel-1 Observations
2019
This study compares numerical simulations and observations of C-band radar backscatter in a wide region (2300 km 2 ) in the Northern French Alps. Numerical simulations were performed using a model chain composed of the SAFRAN meteorological reanalysis, the Crocus snowpack model and the radiative transfer model Microwave Emission Model for Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS3&a), operating at a spatial resolution of 250-m. The simulations, without any bias correction, were evaluated against 141 Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar observation scenes with a resolution of 20 m over three snow seasons from October 2014 to June 2017. Results show that there is good agreement between observations and simulations under snow-free or dry snow conditions, consistent with the fact that dry snow is almost transparent at C-band. Under wet snow conditions, although the changes in time and space are well correlated, there is a significant deviation, up to 5 dB, between observations and simulations. The reasons for these discrepancies were explored, including a sensitivity analysis on the impact of the liquid water percolation scheme in Crocus. This study demonstrates the feasibility of performing end-to-end simulations of radar backscatter over extended geographical region. This makes it possible to envision data assimilation of radar data into snowpack models in the future, pending that deviations are mitigated, either through bias corrections or improved physical modeling of both snow properties and corresponding radar backscatter.
Journal Article
Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Snowpack Simulations in Complex Alpine Terrain Using Satellite and In Situ Observations
by
Revuelto, Jesús
,
Lecourt, Grégoire
,
Zin, Isabella
in
complex terrain
,
Continental interfaces, environment
,
mountain areas
2018
This work presents an extensive evaluation of the Crocus snowpack model over a rugged and highly glacierized mountain catchment (Arve valley, Western Alps, France) from 1989 to 2015. The simulations were compared and evaluated using in-situ point snow depth measurements, in-situ seasonal and annual glacier surface mass balance, snow covered area evolution based on optical satellite imagery at 250 m resolution (MODIS sensor), and the annual equilibrium-line altitude of glaciers, derived from satellite images (Landsat, SPOT, and ASTER). The snowpack simulations were obtained using the Crocus snowpack model driven by the same, originally semi-distributed, meteorological forcing (SAFRAN) reanalysis using the native semi-distributed configuration, but also a fully distributed configuration. The semi-distributed approach addresses land surface simulations for discrete topographic classes characterized by elevation range, aspect, and slope. The distributed approach operates on a 250-m grid, enabling inclusion of terrain shadowing effects, based on the same original meteorological dataset. Despite the fact that the two simulations use the same snowpack model, being potentially subjected to same potential deviation from the parametrization of certain physical processes, the results showed that both approaches accurately reproduced the snowpack distribution over the study period. Slightly (although statistically significantly) better results were obtained by using the distributed approach. The evaluation of the snow cover area with MODIS sensor has shown, on average, a reduction of the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) from 15.2% with the semi-distributed approach to 12.6% with the distributed one. Similarly, surface glacier mass balance RMSE decreased from 1.475 m of water equivalent (W.E.) for the semi-distributed simulation to 1.375 m W.E. for the distribution. The improvement, observed with a much higher computational time, does not justify the recommendation of this approach for all applications; however, for simulations that require a precise representation of snowpack distribution, the distributed approach is suggested.
Journal Article
Radar-based high-resolution ensemble precipitation analyses over the French Alps
2025
Reliable estimation of precipitation fields at high resolution is a key issue for snow cover modelling in mountainous areas, where the density of precipitation networks is far too low to capture the complex variability of these fields with topography. Adequate quantification of the remaining uncertainty in precipitation estimates is also necessary for further assimilation of complementary snow observations in snow models. Radar observations provide spatialised estimates of precipitation with high spatial and temporal resolution and are often combined with rain gauge observations to improve the accuracy of the estimate. However, radar measurements suffer from significant shortcomings in mountainous areas (in particular, unrealistic spatial patterns due to ground clutter, leading to local systematic biases). Precipitation fields simulated by high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide an alternative estimate but suffer from widespread systematic biases and positioning errors. Even though these uncertainties can be partially described by ensemble NWP systems and systematic errors can be reduced by statistical post-processing, NWP precipitation estimates are still not reliable enough for the requirements of high-resolution snow cover modelling. In this study, better precipitation estimates are obtained through a specific analysis based on a combination of all these available products. First, a pre-processing step is proposed to mitigate the main deficiencies of precipitation estimates by radar and gauges, focusing on reducing unrealistic spatial patterns. This method also provides a spatialised estimate of the associated error in mountainous areas, based on a climatological analysis of both radar and NWP-estimated precipitation. Three ensemble daily precipitation analysis methods are then proposed, first using only the modified precipitation estimates and associated errors, then combining them with ensemble NWP simulations based on the particle filter and ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation algorithms. The performance of the different precipitation analysis methods is evaluated at a local scale using independent ski-resort precipitation observations. The evaluation of the pre-processing step shows its ability to remove the main spatial artefacts coming from the radar measurements and to improve the precipitation estimates at the local scale. The local-scale evaluations of the ensemble analyses do not demonstrate an additional benefit of ensemble NWP forecasts, but their contrasted spatial patterns are challenging to evaluate with the available data.
Journal Article
The S2M meteorological and snow cover reanalysis over the French mountainous areas: description and evaluation (1958–2021)
by
Morin, Samuel
,
Hagenmuller, Pascal
,
Vernay, Matthieu
in
Analysis
,
Climate models
,
Climatology
2022
This work introduces the S2M (SAFRAN–SURFEX/ISBA–Crocus–MEPRA) meteorological and snow cover reanalysis in the French Alps, Pyrenees and Corsica, spanning the time period from 1958 to 2021. The simulations are made over elementary areas, referred to as massifs, designed to represent the main drivers of the spatial variability observed in mountain ranges (elevation, slope and aspect). The meteorological reanalysis is performed by the SAFRAN system, which combines information from numerical weather prediction models (ERA-40 reanalysis from 1958 to 2002, ARPEGE from 2002 to 2021) and the best possible set of available in situ meteorological observations. SAFRAN outputs are used to drive the Crocus detailed snow cover model, which is part of the land surface scheme SURFEX/ISBA. This model chain provides simulations of the evolution of the snow cover, underlying ground and the associated avalanche hazard using the MEPRA model. This contribution describes and discusses the main climatological characteristics (climatology, variability and trends) and the main limitations of this dataset. We provide a short overview of the scientific applications using this reanalysis in various scientific fields related to meteorological conditions and the snow cover in mountain areas. An evaluation of the skill of S2M is also displayed, in particular through comparison to 665 independent in situ snow depth observations. Further, we describe the technical handling of this open-access dataset, available at https://doi.org/10.25326/37#v2020.2. The S2M data are provided by Météo-France – CNRS, CNRM, Centre d'Études de la Neige, through AERIS (Vernay et al., 2022).
Journal Article
A multiphysical ensemble system of numerical snow modelling
2017
Physically based multilayer snowpack models suffer from various modelling errors. To represent these errors, we built the new multiphysical ensemble system ESCROC (Ensemble System Crocus) by implementing new representations of different physical processes in the deterministic coupled multilayer ground/snowpack model SURFEX/ISBA/Crocus. This ensemble was driven and evaluated at Col de Porte (1325 m a.s.l., French alps) over 18 years with a high-quality meteorological and snow data set. A total number of 7776 simulations were evaluated separately, accounting for the uncertainties of evaluation data. The ability of the ensemble to capture the uncertainty associated to modelling errors is assessed for snow depth, snow water equivalent, bulk density, albedo and surface temperature. Different sub-ensembles of the ESCROC system were studied with probabilistic tools to compare their performance. Results show that optimal members of the ESCROC system are able to explain more than half of the total simulation errors. Integrating members with biases exceeding the range corresponding to observational uncertainty is necessary to obtain an optimal dispersion, but this issue can also be a consequence of the fact that meteorological forcing uncertainties were not accounted for. The ESCROC system promises the integration of numerical snow-modelling errors in ensemble forecasting and ensemble assimilation systems in support of avalanche hazard forecasting and other snowpack-modelling applications.
Journal Article