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"Lalon"
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An Empirical Investigation on the Determinants of Interest Rate Spread of Commercial Banks in Bangladesh
2024
This paper aims to investigate the determinants or factors affecting the interest rate spread of private commercial banks in Bangladesh from 2013 to 2022. For the purpose of the study, the interest rate spread (IRS) of banks has been considered as a dependent variable while bank-specific factors and macroeconomic factors have been considered independent variables. Bank-specific factors are credit risk, bank size, operating cost ratio, liquidity risk, net interest income as a ratio of total income, capital adequacy ratio, and loan to deposit ratio while macroeconomic factors are Inflation and GDP. The Pooled Ordinary Least Square method (OLS), the Fixed Effect method (FE), the Random Effect method (RE), and the Generalized Least Square method (GLS) have been used to investigate the impact of the factors on interest rate spread. The results exhibit that bank-specific factors such as net interest income as a ratio of total income, and capital adequacy ratio are found to be statistically significant and positively impact the interest rate spread. In contrast, the results also exhibit that bank-specific factors such as bank size, operating expense ratio, and loan to deposit ratio are statistically significant and negatively impact the interest rate spread. Again, the results determine that the macroeconomic factor which is inflation found to be statistically significant and positively impacts the interest rate spread. The study’s findings will assist the banks’ regulatory body in formulating and developing strategies to maintain a satisfactory level of interest rate spread.
Journal Article
Which User-Friendly Model is the Best for BASEL-III? An Emerging Market Study
by
Lalon, Raad
,
Hossain, Amjad
,
Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul
in
Alternative approaches
,
Banking
,
Behavioral/Experimental Economics
2024
This paper explores backtesting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) considering ten standard and extended tests in the context of non-technical individual investors trading equities of twenty selected commercial banks listed at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) using their daily share prices for 11 years (from 2010 to 2020). Following a significant gap in the literature on investigating the efficacy of user-friendly models in quantifying the market risk of banks in emerging economies, this paper adopted four user-friendly models that are relatively straightforward to understand and interpret and are considered representatives of zero, -one, -two, and -three parametric families of all risk models in the literature specifically for the emerging economy of Bangladesh. The popular RiskMetrics™ risk forecast model of JPMorgan, sweeping the world as the most user-friendly conditional alternative to unconditional Gaussian risk forecasts under the framework of VaR, is found not to be adequate under the framework of ES that was recently recommended by Basel-III. The joint score value-based comparison finds the historical simulation (HS) model as the most appropriate model in Bangladesh when models are assessed under a practical user-friendly implementation design. Under this design the Trust Bank Ltd. (TBL), the bank managed and operated by Bangladesh Military, qualifies as the most investor-friendly bank in terms of causing the least frustration to its equity investors over 2010–2020. Overall, augmenting earlier studies in the literature that are mostly for developed markets and are mostly without any ES back-test, we find that the user-friendly model HS is still successful in quantifying market risk over the globe since its relative usefulness gets well established through recent back-tests of VaR and ES in emerging market too.
Journal Article
Determinants of Foreign Exchange Reserve of Emerging Economy: Time Series Evidence from Bangladesh
by
Mony, Puja Das
,
Naima, Jannatul
,
Lalon, Raad Mozib
in
Economic growth
,
Exports
,
Foreign investment
2025
This paper contributes to existing literatures through investigating the elements influencing Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves covering the period from 1972 to 2023. In fact, this study analyzes the impact of several macroeconomic variables, including exports, imports, economic growth, trade balance, remittances, external debt, foreign direct investment (FDI), broad money, real interest rates, exchange rates, and trade openness, using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model on the foreign exchange reserves. The findings demonstrate that while trade balance, real interest rates, and trade openness show negative connections, exports, imports, economic growth, remittances, foreign debt, FDI, and broad money have major positive influence on the reserves. With a R2 value of 0.9877, the model shows a great explanatory power and indicates that the chosen variables almost completely explain the variance in foreign exchange reserves. Without the evidence of heteroscedasticity, multicollinearity, or autocorrelation, diagnostic tests validate the robustness of the model. The results highlight the need of keeping balanced trade policies and supporting favorable conditions for exports, remittances, and FDI to guarantee a steady buildup of foreign exchange reserves, thereby ensuring Bangladesh’s economic resilience and stability.
Journal Article
Investigating the Impact of Bank-specific Determinants on Stock Price of Listed Commercial Banks: Evidence from Emerging Economy
2023
This paper attempts to investigate the impact of bank-specific determinants on the stock price of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) listed commercial banks in Bangladesh. Several bank-specific factors such as Book to Market Ratio, Return on Equity, Price/Earnings to Growth Ratio, Cash Flow per Share, Debt to Equity Ratio, Earnings per Share, Dividend per Share, Bank Size and Institutional Ownership Percentage have been analyzed for this study and tried to see the impact of each variable on the change in market price of share of 10 listed commercial banks spanning from 2011 to 2020. In empirical discussion four estimation models such as Fixed effects, Random effects, GLS, and Pooled OLS approach have been used to ensure the robustness of the models. To examine the validity of the models chosen for this study, the model specification test and many diagnostic checks were used, including the test of heteroskedasticity, the cross-sectional dependence test, the test of autocorrelation and the unit root test, etc. Our investiagtion reveals that only Bank Size and Book to Market Value explanatory variables are found significantly responsible for fluctuation in the change in share price of banks, contributing to the current literature by revealing the importance of bank-specific factors that include all metrics in their calculation. As a result, Bangladesh's DSE-listed banks should take appropriate measures to boost their stock values, such as attempting to improve the ratio that has a positive impact on the share price while decreasing the ratio that has a negative impact.
Journal Article
Impact of Cottage Micro Small and Medium Enterprise Financing on Bank Performance: Evidence from Emerging Economy
2023
This paper aims to assess the impact of Cottage, Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (CMSMEs) financing on bank performance estimated with NIM (net interest margin) ratio followed by ROE (return on equity) and ROA (return on assets) ratio considering ten commercial banks (both private and state-owned bank) of Bangladesh being a participant of emerging economy covering from the year 2011 to the year 2020. Adopting Pooled OLS, Fixed Effect (FE), Random Effect (RE) and Generalized Least Square (GLS) technique enables the estimation of coefficients corresponding to the explanatory variables of the models constructed with bank specific as well as macroeconomic control variables along with the CMSME financing factors affecting banks’ profitability. We also use diagnostic tests like the test of heteroskedasticity, multicollinearity, omitted variable, and autocorrelation to ensure our models are accurate. From this paper it will be cleared that the growth of CMSME financing can lead to higher profitability of commercial banks, higher employment rate in CMSME sector other than any other sector. According to the estimated findings of the models, almost all CMSMSE determinants along with a few control variables including bank size, GDP growth and inflation largely account for the variations in profitability ratio of banks.
Journal Article
Exploring savings and spending behaviour among university graduates in Bangladesh
by
Sojib Islam
,
Shanto, Rahatul Islam
,
Lalon, Raad Mozib
in
Behavior
,
College graduates
,
College students
2025
This paper examines the financial behaviors of university students in Bangladesh, including gender and academic level. The study, involving a sample size of 416 students, was done at the University of Dhaka using a standardized questionnaire to collect data on financial behaviors, including monthly expenditures, saving habits, and financial decision-making techniques. One-way ANOVA and independent samples t-tests indicated significant gender disparities; male students showed greater spending habits, whilst female students displayed a stronger propensity for savings. Academic levels influenced spending behaviors; first-year students had distinct financial patterns compared to seniors, however, savings habits were rather consistent across groups. The findings emphasize the necessity of encouraging structured saving strategies and financial awareness among university students. Identifying substantial demographic and behavioral insights in this study aids legislators and financial institutions in improving customized financial planning strategies for students. The research highlights the potential for future studies to incorporate private colleges and investigate the impact of socioeconomic issues and digital payment systems on student financial conduct that may mold Bangladesh's orderly and economical student demographic.
Journal Article
Investigating the Impact of Economic Development, Energy Consumption, International Trade and Population on CO2 Emission of a Country: Evidence from an Emerging Economy
by
Shaheen, Shagufta
,
Khan, Tasneema
,
Lalon, Raad Mozib
in
Carbon dioxide removal
,
Economic development
,
Emerging markets
2023
This paper investigates the consequences of economic development, along with energy consumption, international trade, and population growth, on the CO2 emissions of Bangladesh as a participant in an emerging economy, covering periods from 1972 to 2021. The unit root properties of the variables have been tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) approach to examine the presence of stationary of data series. To check for co-integration in the data series of variables included in the models, we used the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributive Lag) bounds testing approach. In addition, the VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) Granger Causality approach has been used to examine the casual relationship between the selected variables representing the proxy for determinants of CO2 emission in Bangladesh. Our investigation confirms the co-integration between the data series, followed by the significant impact of these variables on CO2 emissions of Bangladesh. More precisely, GDP being the proxy of economic development, energy consumption, merchandise trade as a proxy for international trade, and population growths have had a significant positive impact on the CO2 emissions of Bangladesh since its inception.
Journal Article
Economic feasibility of Pabda and stinging catfish culture in recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) in Bangladesh
by
Alam ABM Shamsul
,
Begum Mst Khadiza
,
Lalon Raad Mozib
in
Analysis
,
Aquaculture
,
Aquaculture techniques
2022
Recirculating aquaculture system (RAS) is a unique approach that offers total control to culture a wide variety of aquatic species. As capital investment is higher for setting up RAS, it is necessary to conduct an economic feasibility analysis based on real data. A structured questionnaire was used to collect all economic and technical data on two catfish species, viz., Pabda (Ompok pabda) and Shing (Heteropneustes fossilis), cultured in an RAS farm. The ultimate objective was to estimate net cash flow, net present value (NPV), profitability index (PI), payback period, discounted payback period, internal rate of return (IRR), and sensitivity analysis to find out the best profitability indicators. The analysis revealed that the IRR were 4% and 16% for Pabda and Shing production, respectively. However, for Pabda and Shing productions, the payback periods were 15 years and 4 months and 6 years and 2 months, respectively. The NPV value was positive for Shing production and negative for Pabda. On the other hand, the PI was lower than one for Pabda production and higher than one for Shing production. Therefore, the results showed that the Shing production in the RAS facility could be economically feasible; however, Pabda production may not be viable in RAS due to lower production and longer culture period. This study may suggest that by increasing the production capacity of the farm and market price of the product through the proper supply chain and by decreasing the initial investment, cost of fingerlings and feed, profitability can be achieved in RAS in Bangladesh.
Journal Article
Investigating the Impact of Firm-specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Operating Efficiency of Commercial Banks: Panel Evidence from Bangladesh
2023
This paper aims to find out the significant firm-specific and macroeconomic determinants of operating efficiency through covering 360 observations having 30 commercial banks’ data from 2009 to 2020. Model specification test along with several diagnostic tests has been done and our investigation reveals that Net interest margin or net investment income ratio, loan loss provision to total loan, debt to total assets and total loan to earning assets are significantly related with operating efficiency ratio (OER) bringing the changes in operating efficiency. In the second model, return on equity, net interest margin or net investment income ratio, equity capital to total assets, loan loss provision to total loan, bank size, total loan to earning assets and total loan to total deposit significantly affect the operating efficiency of commercial banks being measured with cost efficiency ratio (CER). In the subsequent model, net interest margin or net investment income ratio, total loan to earning assets, debt to total assets ratio, and total loan to total deposit have been evidenced to affect the operating efficiency significantly being measured with operating expense to earning assets ratio (OEEAR).
Journal Article