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Mangrove forests store high amounts of carbon, protect communities from storms, and support fisheries. Mangroves exist in complex social-ecological systems, hence identifying socioeconomic conditions associated with decreasing losses and increasing gains remains challenging albeit important. The impact of national governance and conservation policies on mangrove conservation at the landscape-scale has not been assessed to date, nor have the interactions with local economic pressures and biophysical drivers. Here, we assess the relationship between socioeconomic and biophysical variables and mangrove change across coastal geomorphic units worldwide from 1996 to 2016. Globally, we find that drivers of loss can also be drivers of gain, and that drivers have changed over 20 years. The association with economic growth appears to have reversed, shifting from negatively impacting mangroves in the first decade to enabling mangrove expansion in the second decade. Importantly, we find that community forestry is promoting mangrove expansion, whereas conversion to agriculture and aquaculture, often occurring in protected areas, results in high loss. Sustainable development, community forestry, and co-management of protected areas are promising strategies to reverse mangrove losses, increasing the capacity of mangroves to support human-livelihoods and combat climate change. Mangrove forests protect communities from storms and support fisheries. Here, the authors show that the association with economic growth has shifted from negatively impacting mangroves to enabling mangrove expansion, and that community forestry is promoting mangrove expansion.

Better land stewardship is needed to achieve the Paris Agreement's temperature goal, particularly in the tropics, where greenhouse gas emissions from the destruction of ecosystems are largest, and where the potential for additional land carbon storage is greatest. As countries enhance their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, confusion persists about the potential contribution of better land stewardship to meeting the Agreement's goal to hold global warming below 2°C. We assess cost-effective tropical country-level potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)—protection, improved management and restoration of ecosystems—to deliver climate mitigation linked with sustainable development goals (SDGs). We identify groups of countries with distinctive NCS portfolios, and we explore factors (governance, financial capacity) influencing the feasibility of unlocking national NCS potential. Cost-effective tropical NCS offers globally significant climate mitigation in the coming decades (6.56 Pg CO2e yr−1 at less than 100 US$ per Mg CO2e). In half of the tropical countries, cost-effective NCS could mitigate over half of national emissions. In more than a quarter of tropical countries, cost-effective NCS potential is greater than national emissions. We identify countries where, with international financing and political will, NCS can cost-effectively deliver the majority of enhanced NDCs while transforming national economies and contributing to SDGs. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’.

With the growing recognition that effective action on climate change will require a combination of emissions reductions and carbon sequestration, protecting, enhancing and restoring natural carbon sinks have become political priorities. Mangrove forests are considered some of the most carbon-dense ecosystems in the world with most of the carbon stored in the soil. In order for mangrove forests to be included in climate mitigation efforts, knowledge of the spatial distribution of mangrove soil carbon stocks are critical. Current global estimates do not capture enough of the finer scale variability that would be required to inform local decisions on siting protection and restoration projects. To close this knowledge gap, we have compiled a large georeferenced database of mangrove soil carbon measurements and developed a novel machine-learning based statistical model of the distribution of carbon density using spatially comprehensive data at a 30 m resolution. This model, which included a prior estimate of soil carbon from the global SoilGrids 250 m model, was able to capture 63% of the vertical and horizontal variability in soil organic carbon density (RMSE of 10.9 kg m−3). Of the local variables, total suspended sediment load and Landsat imagery were the most important variable explaining soil carbon density. Projecting this model across the global mangrove forest distribution for the year 2000 yielded an estimate of 6.4 Pg C for the top meter of soil with an 86-729 Mg C ha−1 range across all pixels. By utilizing remotely-sensed mangrove forest cover change data, loss of soil carbon due to mangrove habitat loss between 2000 and 2015 was 30-122 Tg C with >75% of this loss attributable to Indonesia, Malaysia and Myanmar. The resulting map products from this work are intended to serve nations seeking to include mangrove habitats in payment-for- ecosystem services projects and in designing effective mangrove conservation strategies.

Blue carbon ecosystems, such as mangroves, tidal marshes, and seagrasses, are important for climate mitigation. As carbon sinks, they often exhibit higher per hectare carbon storage capacity and sequestration rates than terrestrial systems. These ecosystems provide additional benefits, including enhancing water quality, sustaining biodiversity, and maintaining coastal resilience to climate change impacts. The widespread loss of blue carbon ecosystems due to anthropogenic activities can contribute to increasing carbon emissions globally. Monetizing blue carbon through carbon credits offers an avenue to generate revenue and incentivize conservation and restoration efforts. However, limited data on project costs and carbon benefits make prioritization of blue carbon projects challenging. To address these challenges, we have developed, in collaboration with blue carbon experts, the Blue Carbon Cost Tool. This is a user-friendly interface enabling comparison of three core market project components – 1) carbon credit estimation, 2) project cost estimation, and 3) a qualitative, non-economic feasibility assessment – to assess and compare potential for blue carbon projects. Tool simulations with data available from nine countries demonstrate (a) how factors such as country, ecosystem type and project scale drive variability, (b) the need for local or project-specific data to enhance accuracy and reduce uncertainty, particularly in tidal marsh and seagrass systems, and (c) that higher price tolerance or upfront capital is needed to bridge implementation and maintenance cost gaps. The Blue Carbon Cost Tool can aid project developers and investors to better understand market opportunity and the resources needed to develop high quality blue carbon market projects.

The international scientific community is increasingly recognizing the role of natural systems in climate-change mitigation. While forests have historically been the primary focus of such efforts, coastal wetlands - particularly seagrasses, tidal marshes, and mangroves - are now considered important and effective longterm carbon sinks. However, some members of the coastal and marine policy and management community have been interested in expanding climate mitigation strategies to include other components within coastal and marine systems, such as coral reefs, phytoplankton, kelp forests, and marine fauna. We analyze the scientific evidence regarding whether these marine ecosystems and ecosystem components are viable long-term carbon sinks and whether they can be managed for climate mitigation. Our findings could assist decision makers and conservation practitioners in identifying which components of coastal and marine ecosystems should be prioritized in current climate mitigation strategies and policies.

Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS—when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation—is 23.8 petagrams of CO₂ equivalent (PgCO₂e)y−1 (95% CI 20.3–37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO₂e y−1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO₂ pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO₂e−1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO₂ mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO₂−1. Most NCS actions—if effectively implemented—also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change.

The Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) Pole to Pole of the Americas is a collaborative initiative aimed at monitoring and understanding marine biodiversity changes across diverse coastal ecosystems. Operating within the framework of the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Networks (GEO BON), MBON supports data mobilization to help nations achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The initiative fosters a community of practice that includes scientists, marine protected area staff, and citizen scientists from at least nine countries, promoting standardized methodologies for biodiversity monitoring. Key achievements include the development of standardized sampling protocols for rocky shores and sandy beaches, enhancing data comparability and contributing to large-scale biodiversity assessments. Despite challenges such as funding limitations and the COVID-19 pandemic, MBON has successfully engaged local communities and built scientific capacity through workshops and collaborative research. Future efforts will focus on integrating advanced monitoring techniques and decision support systems to bridge the gap between scientific data and policy-making, ensuring sustained impact on marine conservation and resource management.

Mangrove forests are increasingly recognized as a natural bulwark against the impacts of climate change. They provide an array of ecosystem services, including coastal protection, fishery enhancement, and carbon storage. Yet, over one million hectares have been lost since 1990 (FAO, 2020). To reverse this decline, mangrove restoration and conservation are key.

Tidal marshes store large amounts of organic carbon in their soils. Field data quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks provide an important resource for researchers, natural resource managers, and policy-makers working towards the protection, restoration, and valuation of these ecosystems. We collated a global dataset of tidal marsh soil organic carbon (MarSOC) from 99 studies that includes location, soil depth, site name, dry bulk density, SOC, and/or soil organic matter (SOM). The MarSOC dataset includes 17,454 data points from 2,329 unique locations, and 29 countries. We generated a general transfer function for the conversion of SOM to SOC. Using this data we estimated a median (± median absolute deviation) value of 79.2±38.1 Mg SOC ha?1 in the top 30cm and 231±134 Mg SOC ha?1 in the top 1m of tidal marsh soils globally. This data can serve as a basis for future work, and may contribute to incorporation of tidal marsh ecosystems into climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies and policies.

Tidal marsh ecosystems are heavily impacted by human activities, highlighting a pressing need to address gaps in our knowledge of their distribution. To better understand the global distribution and changes in tidal marsh extent, and identify opportunities for their conservation and restoration, it is critical to develop a spatial knowledge base of their global occurrence. Here, we develop a globally consistent tidal marsh distribution map for the year 2020 at 10-m resolution. Global 2020 Tidal marshes To map the location of the world’s tidal marshes we applied a random forest classification model to earth observation data from the year 2020. We trained the classification model with a reference dataset developed to support distribution mapping of coastal ecosystems, and predicted the spatial distribution of tidal marshes between 60°N to 60°S. We validated the tidal marsh map using standard accuracy assessment methods, with our final map having an overall accuracy score of 0.852. We estimate the global extent of tidal marshes in 2020 to be 52,880 km2 (95% CI: 32,030 to 59,780 km2) distributed across 120 countries and territories. Tidal marsh distribution is centred in temperate and Arctic regions, with nearly half of the global extent of tidal marshes occurring in the temperate Northern Atlantic (45%) region. At the national scale, over a third of the global extent (18,510 km2; CI: 11,200 – 20,900) occurs within the USA. Our analysis provides the most detailed spatial data on global tidal marsh distribution to date and shows that tidal marshes occur in more countries and across a greater proportion of the world’s coastline than previous mapping studies. Our map fills a major knowledge gap regarding the distribution of the world’s coastal ecosystems and provides the baseline needed for measuring changes in tidal marsh extent and estimating their value in terms of ecosystem services