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Depending on how the future will unfold, today’s progress in biotechnology research has greater or lesser potential to be the basis of subsequent innovation. Tracking progress against indicators for different future scenarios will help to focus, emphasize, or de-emphasize discovery research in a timely manner and to maximize the chance for successful innovation. In this paper, we show how learning scenarios with a 2050 time horizon help to recognize the implications of political and societal developments on the innovation potential of ongoing biotechnological research. We also propose a model to further increase open innovation between academia and the biotechnology value chain to help fundamental research explore discovery fields that have a greater chance to be valuable for applied research. Identifying most relevant social, economic, and technological trends can help us understand in which direction future worlds could develop.Extrapolating long-term impact of current developments on the way we live may open avenues of biotechnology discovery research that would provide the starting basis for research and innovation addressing future needs.Maximizing innovation output in biotechnology requires a continuous cross-stakeholder interaction to timely share know–how obtained from discovery research in formats tailored to stakeholder use requirements

Increased oxidative stress is important in the pathogenesis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We postulated that treatment with the antioxidant N-acetylcysteine would reduce the rate of lung-function decline, reduce yearly exacerbation rate, and improve outcomes. In a randomised placebo-controlled study in 50 centres, 523 patients with COPD were randomly assigned to 600 mg daily N-acetylcysteine or placebo. Patients were followed for 3 years. Primary outcomes were yearly reduction in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV 1) and the number of exacerbations per year. Analysis was by intention to treat. The yearly rate of decline in FEV 1 did not differ between patients assigned N-acetylcysteine and those assigned placebo (54 mL [SE 6] vs 47 mL [6]; difference in slope between groups 8 mL [9]; 95% CI −25 to 10). The number of exacerbations per year did not differ between groups (1·25 [SD 1·35] vs 1·29 [SD 1·46]; hazard ratio 0·99 [95% CI 0·89–1·10, p=0·85]). Subgroup analysis suggested that the exacerbation rate might be reduced with N acetylcysteine in patients not treated with inhaled corticosteroids and secondary analysis was suggestive of an effect on hyperinflation. N-acetylcysteine is ineffective at prevention of deterioration in lung function and prevention of exacerbations in patients with COPD.

To meet the increasing global demand for food, feed, fibre and other plant‐derived products, a steep increase in crop productivity is a scientifically and technically challenging imperative. The CropBooster‐P project, a response to the H2020 call ‘Future proofing our plants’, is developing a roadmap for plant research to improve crops critical for the future of European agriculture by increasing crop yield, nutritional quality, value for non‐food applications and sustainability. However, if we want to efficiently improve crop production in Europe and prioritize methods for crop trait improvement in the coming years, we need to take into account future socio‐economic, technological and global developments, including numerous policy and socio‐economic challenges and constraints. Based on a wide range of possible global trends and key uncertainties, we developed four extreme future learning scenarios that depict complementary future developments. Here, we elaborate on how the scenarios could inform and direct future plant research, and we aim to highlight the crop improvement approaches that could be the most promising or appropriate within each of these four future world scenarios. Moreover, we discuss some key plant technology options that would need to be developed further to meet the needs of multiple future learning scenarios, such as improving methods for breeding and genetic engineering. In addition, other diverse platforms of food production may offer unrealized potential, such as underutilized terrestrial and aquatic species as alternative sources of nutrition and biomass production. We demonstrate that although several methods or traits could facilitate a more efficient crop production system in some of the scenarios, others may offer great potential in all four of the future learning scenarios. Altogether, this indicates that depending on which future we are heading toward, distinct plant research fields should be given priority if we are to meet our food, feed and non‐food biomass production needs in the coming decades. If we want to efficiently improve crop production in Europe and prioritize methods for crop trait improvement in the coming years, we need to take into account future socio‐economic, technological and global developments. Here, we present four extreme future learning scenarios and elaborate on how these could inform and direct future plant research. In addition, we highlight how some key plant technology options and the use of underutilized terrestrial and aquatic species as an alternative source of biomass production could contribute to our four future world scenarios.