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Permafrost thaw is a challenge in many Arctic regions, one that modifies ecosystems and affects infrastructure and livelihoods. To date, there have been no demographic studies of the population on permafrost. We present the first estimates of the number of inhabitants on permafrost in the Arctic Circumpolar Permafrost Region (ACPR) and project changes as a result of permafrost thaw. We combine current and projected populations at settlement level with permafrost extent. Key findings indicate that there are 1162 permafrost settlements in the ACPR, accommodating 5 million inhabitants, of whom 1 million live along a coast. Climate-driven permafrost projections suggest that by 2050, 42% of the permafrost settlements will become permafrost-free due to thawing. Among the settlements remaining on permafrost, 42% are in high hazard zones, where the consequences of permafrost thaw will be most severe. In total, 3.3 million people in the ACPR live currently in settlements where permafrost will degrade and ultimately disappear by 2050.

Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007–2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged. Climate change strongly impacts regions in high latitudes and altitudes that store high amounts of carbon in yet frozen ground. Here the authors show that the consequence of these changes is global warming of permafrost at depths greater than 10 m in the Northern Hemisphere, in mountains, and in Antarctica.

Degrading permafrost can alter ecosystems, damage infrastructure, and release enough carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) to influence global climate. The permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is the amplification of surface warming due to CO2 and CH4 emissions from thawing permafrost. An analysis of available estimates PCF strength and timing indicate 120 ± 85 Gt of carbon emissions from thawing permafrost by 2100. This is equivalent to 5.7 ± 4.0% of total anthropogenic emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and would increase global temperatures by 0.29 ± 0.21 °C or 7.8 ± 5.7%. For RCP4.5, the scenario closest to the 2 °C warming target for the climate change treaty, the range of cumulative emissions in 2100 from thawing permafrost decreases to between 27 and 100 Gt C with temperature increases between 0.05 and 0.15 °C, but the relative fraction of permafrost to total emissions increases to between 3% and 11%. Any substantial warming results in a committed, long-term carbon release from thawing permafrost with 60% of emissions occurring after 2100, indicating that not accounting for permafrost emissions risks overshooting the 2 °C warming target. Climate projections in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and any emissions targets based on those projections, do not adequately account for emissions from thawing permafrost and the effects of the PCF on global climate. We recommend the IPCC commission a special assessment focusing on the PCF and its impact on global climate to supplement the AR5 in support of treaty negotiation.

The Arctic is experiencing the greatest increase in air temperature on Earth. This significant climatic change is leading to a significant positive trend of increasing wave heights and greater coastal erosion. This in turn effects local economies and ecosystems. Increasing wave energy is one of the main drivers of this alarming trend. However, the data on spatial and temporal patterns of wave heights in the Arctic are either coarse, interpolated or limited to point measurements. The aim of this study is to overcome this shortcoming by using remote sensing data. In this study, the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite TerraSAR-X (TS-X) and TanDEM-X (TD-X) imagery are used to obtain sea state information with a high spatial resolution in Arctic nearshore waters in the Canadian Beaufort Sea. From the entire archive of the TS-X/TD-X StripMap mode with coverage around 30 km × 50 km acquired between 2009 and 2020 around Herschel Island, Qikiqtaruk (HIQ), all the ice-free scenes were processed. The resulting dataset of 175 collocated scenes was used to map the significant wave height (Hs) and to link spatial and temporal patterns to local coastal processes. Sea state parameters are estimated in raster format with a 600 m step using the empirical algorithm CWAVE_EX. The statistics of the Hs were aggregated according to spatial variability, seasonality and wind conditions. The results show that the spatial wave climate is clearly related to the dominant wind regime and seasonality. For instance, the aggregation of all the scenes recorded in July between 2009 and 2020 results in an average of 0.82 m Hs, while in October the average Hs is almost 0.40 m higher. The analysis by wind direction shows that fetch length and wind speed are likely the most important variables influencing the spatial variability. A larger fetch under NW conditions results in a mean wave height of 0.92 m, while waves generated under ESE conditions are lower at 0.81 m on average.

Alkalinity generation from rock weathering modulates Earth’s climate at geological time scales. Although lithology is thought to dominantly control alkalinity generation globally, the role of other first-order controls appears elusive. Particularly challenging remains the discrimination of climatic and erosional influences. Based on global observations, here we uncover the role of erosion rate in governing riverine alkalinity, accompanied by areal proportion of carbonate, mean annual temperature, catchment area, and soil regolith thickness. We show that the weathering flux to the ocean will be significantly altered by climate warming as early as 2100, by up to 68% depending on the environmental conditions, constituting a sudden feedback of ocean CO 2 sequestration to climate. Interestingly, warming under a low-emissions scenario will reduce terrestrial alkalinity flux from mid-latitudes (–1.6 t(bicarbonate) a −1  km −2 ) until the end of the century, resulting in a reduction in CO 2 sequestration, but an increase (+0.5 t(bicarbonate) a −1  km −2 ) from mid-latitudes is likely under a high-emissions scenario, yielding an additional CO 2 sink. The weathering alkalinity flux from mid-latitudes to the ocean will be strongly altered by climate warming by 2100. Under different emissions scenarios either a strengthening or a weakening of the flux and thus of the oceanic CO 2 buffer is predicted.

Arctic coasts, which feature land-ocean transport of freshwater, sediments, and other terrestrial material, are impacted by climate change, including increased temperatures, melting glaciers, changes in precipitation and runoff. These trends are assumed to affect productivity in fjordic estuaries. However, the spatial extent and temporal variation of the freshwater-driven darkening of fjords remain unresolved. The present study illustrates the spatio-temporal variability of suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the Adventfjorden estuary, Svalbard, using in-situ field campaigns and ocean colour remote sensing (OCRS) via high-resolution Sentinel-2 imagery. To compute SPM concentration (CSPMsat), a semi-analytical algorithm was regionally calibrated using local in-situ data, which improved the accuracy of satellite-derived SPM concentration by ~20% (MRD). Analysis of SPM concentration for two consecutive years (2019, 2020) revealed strong seasonality of SPM in Adventfjorden. Highest estimated SPM concentrations and river plume extent (% of fjord with CSPMsat > 30 mg L−1) occurred during June, July, and August. Concurrently, we observed a strong relationship between river plume extent and average air temperature over the 24 h prior to the observation (R2 = 0.69). Considering predicted changes to environmental conditions in the Arctic region, this study highlights the importance of the rapidly changing environmental parameters and the significance of remote sensing in analysing fluxes in light attenuating particles, especially in the coastal Arctic Ocean.

Arctic permafrost coasts are sensitive to changing climate. The lengthening open water season and the increasing open water area are likely to induce greater erosion and threaten community and industry infrastructure as well as dramatically change nutrient pathways in the near-shore zone. The shallow, mediterranean Arctic Ocean is likely to be strongly affected by changes in currently poorly observed arctic coastal dynamics. We present a geomorphological classification scheme for the arctic coast, with 101,447 km of coastline in 1,315 segments. The average rate of erosion for the arctic coast is 0.5 m year⁻¹ with high local and regional variability. Highest rates are observed in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Beaufort Seas. Strong spatial variability in associated database bluff height, ground carbon and ice content, and coastline movement highlights the need to estimate the relative importance of shifting coastal fluxes to the Arctic Ocean at multiple spatial scales.

NRC publication: Yes

Arctic warming is leading to substantial changes to permafrost including rapid degradation of ice and ice-rich coasts and riverbanks. In this study, we present and evaluate a high spatiotemporal resolution three-year time series of X-Band microwave satellite data from the TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellite to quantify cliff-top erosion (CTE) of an ice-rich permafrost riverbank in the central Lena Delta. We apply a threshold on TSX backscatter images and automatically extract cliff-top lines to derive intra- and inter-annual CTE. In order to examine the drivers of erosion we statistically compare CTE with climatic baseline data using linear mixed models and analysis of variance (ANOVA). Our evaluation of TSX-derived CTE against annual optical-derived CTE and seasonal in situ measurements showed good agreement between all three datasets. We observed continuous erosion from June to September in 2014 and 2015 with no significant seasonality across the thawing season. We found the highest net annual cliff-top erosion of 6.9 m in 2014, in accordance with above-average mean temperatures and thawing degree days as well as low precipitation. We found high net annual erosion and erosion variability in 2015 associated with moderate mean temperatures but above average precipitation. According to linear mixed models, climate parameters alone could not explain intra-seasonal erosional patterns and additional factors such as ground ice content likely drive the observed erosion. Finally, mean backscatter intensity on the cliff surface decreased from −5.29 to −6.69 dB from 2013 to 2015, respectively, likely resulting from changes in surface geometry and properties that could be connected to partial slope stabilization. Overall, we conclude that X-Band backscatter time series can successfully be used to complement optical remote sensing and in situ monitoring of rapid tundra permafrost erosion at riverbanks and coasts by reliably providing information about intra-seasonal dynamics.

Yukon’s Beaufort coast, Canada, is a highly dynamic landscape. Cultural sites, infrastructure, and travel routes used by the local population are particularly vulnerable to coastal erosion. To assess threats to these phenomena, rates of shoreline change for a 210 km length of the coast were analyzed and combined with socioeconomic and cultural information. Rates of shoreline change were derived from aerial and satellite imagery from the 1950s, 1970s, 1990s, and 2011. Using these data, conservative (S1) and dynamic (S2) shoreline projections were constructed to predict shoreline positions for the year 2100. The locations of cultural features in the archives of a Parks Canada database, the Yukon Archaeological Program, and as reported in other literature were combined with projected shoreline position changes. Between 2011 and 2100, approximately 850 ha (S1) and 2660 ha (S2) may erode, resulting in a loss of 45% (S1) to 61% (S2) of all cultural features by 2100. The last large, actively used camp area and two nearshore landing strips will likely be threatened by future coastal processes. Future coastal erosion and sedimentation processes are expected to increasingly threaten cultural sites and influence travelling and living along the Yukon coast.