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دائما وإلى الأبد، لارا جين
تحكي الرواية أن لارا جين تقضي أفضل عام دراسي أخير يمكن أن تأمله فتاة الغرق أكثر في حب بيتر، زواج أبيها أخيرا بجارتهم السيدة روتشيلد، وعودة مارغو إلى المنزل صيفا في الوقت المناسب تماما لحفل الزفاف. لكن التغيير يلوح في الأفق بينما تستمتع لارا جين وتنشغل بالمساعدة في التخطيط لحفل زفاف أبيها، لا يمكنها تجاهل قرارات الحياة الكبيرة التي يتعين عليها اتخاذها. يتمثل القرار الأكثر إلحاحا في معرفة أين تريد الالتحاق بالجامعة وماذا يعنى ذلك بالنسبة إلى علاقتها مع بيتر، لقد شاهدت أختها مارغو وهي تمر بآلام النضج هذه الآن لارا حين هي التي ستتخرج في المدرسة الثانوية وستغادر إلى الجامعة وستترك عائلتها.
Book
Patterns of influenza B circulation in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2010–2017
There are limited published data about the circulation of influenza B/Victoria and B/Yamagata in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and most countries have a vaccine policy that includes the use of the trivalent influenza vaccine. We analyzed influenza surveillance data to inform decision-making in LAC about prevention strategies, such as the use of the quadrivalent influenza vaccine.
There are a total of 28 reference laboratories and National Influenza Centers in LAC that conduct influenza virologic surveillance according to global standards, and on a weekly basis upload their surveillance data to the open-access World Health Organization (WHO) platform FluNet. These data include the number of specimens tested for influenza and the number of specimens positive for influenza by type, subtype and lineage, all by the epidemiologic week of specimen collection. We invited these laboratories to provide additional epidemiologic data about the hospitalized influenza B cases. We conducted descriptive analyses of patterns of influenza circulation and characteristics of hospitalized cases. We compared the predominant B lineage each season to the lineage in the vaccine applied, to determine vaccine mismatch. A Chi-square and Wilcoxan statistic were used to assess the statistical significance of differences in proportions and medians at the P<0.05 level.
During 2010-2017, the annual number of influenza B cases in LAC was ~4500 to 7000 cases. Since 2011, among the LAC-laboratories reporting influenza B lineage using molecular methods, both B/Victoria and B/Yamagata were detected annually. Among the hospitalized influenza B cases, there were statistically significant differences observed between B/Victoria and B/Yamagata cases when comparing age and the proportion with underlying co-morbid conditions and with history of oseltamivir treatment (P<0.001). The proportion deceased among B/Victoria and B/Yamagata hospitalized cases did not differ significantly. When comparing the predominant influenza B lineage detected, as part of surveillance activities during 63 seasons among 19 countries, to the lineage of the influenza B virus included in the trivalent influenza vaccine used during that season, there was a vaccine mismatch noted during 32% of the seasons analyzed.
Influenza B is important in LAC with both B/Victoria and B/Yamagata circulating annually in all sub regions. During approximately one-third of the seasons, an influenza B vaccine mismatch was identified. Further analyses are needed to better characterize the medical and economic burden of each influenza B lineage, to examine the potential cross-protection of one vaccine lineage against the other circulating virus lineage, and to determine the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of using the quadrivalent vaccine rather than the trivalent influenza vaccine.
Journal Article
Associations between seasonal influenza and meteorological parameters in Costa Rica, Honduras and Nicaragua
Seasonal influenza affects a considerable proportion of the global population each year. We assessed the association between subnational influenza activity and temperature, specific humidity and rainfall in three Central America countries, i.e. Costa Rica, Honduras and Nicaragua. Using virologic data from each country’s national influenza centre, rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and air temperature and specific humidity data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System, we applied logistic regression methods for each of the five sub-national locations studied. Influenza activity was represented by the weekly proportion of respiratory specimens that tested positive for influenza. The models were adjusted for the potentially confounding co-circulating respiratory viruses, seasonality and previous weeks’ influenza activity. We found that influenza activity was proportionally associated (P<0.05) with specific humidity in all locations [odds ratio (OR) 1.21-1.56 per g/kg], while associations with temperature (OR 0.69-0.81 per °C) and rainfall (OR 1.01-1.06 per mm/day) were location-dependent. Among the meteorological parameters, specific humidity had the highest contribution (~3-15%) to the model in all but one location. As model validation, we estimated influenza activity for periods, in which the data was not used in training the models. The correlation coefficients between the estimates and the observed were ≤0.1 in 2 locations and between 0.6-0.86 in three others. In conclusion, our study revealed a proportional association between influenza activity and specific humidity in selected areas from the three Central America countries.
Journal Article
Genetic evolution of influenza viruses among selected countries in Latin America, 2017–2018
Since the 2009 influenza pandemic, Latin American (LA) countries have strengthened their influenza surveillance systems. We analyzed influenza genetic sequence data from the 2017 through 2018 Southern Hemisphere (SH) influenza season from selected LA countries, to map the availability of influenza genetic sequence data from, and to describe, the 2017 through 2018 SH influenza seasons in LA.
We analyzed influenza A/H1pdm09, A/H3, B/Victoria and B/Yamagata hemagglutinin sequences from clinical samples from 12 National Influenza Centers (NICs) in ten countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay) with a collection date from epidemiologic week (EW) 18, 2017 through EW 43, 2018. These sequences were generated by the NIC or the WHO Collaborating Center (CC) at the U.S Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, uploaded to the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) platform, and used for phylogenetic reconstruction.
Influenza hemagglutinin sequences from the participating countries (A/H1pdm09 n = 326, A/H3 n = 636, B n = 433) were highly concordant with the genetic groups of the influenza vaccine-recommended viruses for influenza A/H1pdm09 and influenza B. For influenza A/H3, the concordance was variable.
Considering the constant evolution of influenza viruses, high-quality surveillance data-specifically genetic sequence data, are important to allow public health decision makers to make informed decisions about prevention and control strategies, such as influenza vaccine composition. Countries that conduct influenza genetic sequencing for surveillance in LA should continue to work with the WHO CCs to produce high-quality genetic sequence data and upload those sequences to open-access databases.
Journal Article
Characteristics of seasonal influenza A and B in Latin America: Influenza surveillance data from ten countries
The increased availability of influenza surveillance data in recent years justifies an actual and more complete overview of influenza epidemiology in Latin America. We compared the influenza surveillance systems and assessed the epidemiology of influenza A and B, including the spatio-temporal patterns of influenza epidemics, in ten countries and sub-national regions in Latin America.
We aggregated the data by year and country and characteristics of eighty-two years were analysed. We calculated the median proportion of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases caused by each virus strain, and compared the timing and amplitude of the primary and secondary peaks between countries.
37,087 influenza cases were reported during 2004-2012. Influenza A and B accounted for a median of 79% and, respectively, 21% of cases in a year. The percentage of influenza A cases that were subtyped was 82.5%; for influenza B, 15.6% of cases were characterized. Influenza A and B were dominant in seventy-five (91%) and seven (9%) years, respectively. In half (51%) of the influenza A years, influenza A(H3N2) was dominant, followed by influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 (41%) and pre-pandemic A(H1N1) (8%). The primary peak of influenza activity was in June-September in temperate climate countries, with little or no secondary peak. Tropical climate countries had smaller primary peaks taking place in different months and frequently detectable secondary peaks.
We found that good influenza surveillance data exists in Latin America, although improvements can still be made (e.g. a better characterization of influenza B specimens); that influenza B plays a considerable role in the seasonal influenza burden; and that there is substantial heterogeneity of spatio-temporal patterns of influenza epidemics. To improve the effectiveness of influenza control measures in Latin America, tropical climate countries may need to develop innovative prevention strategies specifically tailored to the spatio-temporal patterns of influenza in this region.
Journal Article
The epidemiological signature of influenza B virus and its B/Victoria and B/Yamagata lineages in the 21.sup.st century
We describe the epidemiological characteristics, pattern of circulation, and geographical distribution of influenza B viruses and its lineages using data from the Global Influenza B Study. We included over 1.8 million influenza cases occurred in thirty-one countries during 2000-2018. We calculated the proportion of cases caused by influenza B and its lineages; determined the timing of influenza A and B epidemics; compared the age distribution of B/Victoria and B/Yamagata cases; and evaluated the frequency of lineage-level mismatch for the trivalent vaccine. The median proportion of influenza cases caused by influenza B virus was 23.4%, with a tendency (borderline statistical significance, p = 0.060) to be higher in tropical vs. temperate countries. Influenza B was the dominant virus type in about one every seven seasons. In temperate countries, influenza B epidemics occurred on average three weeks later than influenza A epidemics; no consistent pattern emerged in the tropics. The two B lineages caused a comparable proportion of influenza B cases globally, however the B/Yamagata was more frequent in temperate countries, and the B/Victoria in the tropics (p = 0.048). B/Yamagata patients were significantly older than B/Victoria patients in almost all countries. A lineage-level vaccine mismatch was observed in over 40% of seasons in temperate countries and in 30% of seasons in the tropics. The type B virus caused a substantial proportion of influenza infections globally in the 21.sup.st century, and its two virus lineages differed in terms of age and geographical distribution of patients. These findings will help inform health policy decisions aiming to reduce disease burden associated with seasonal influenza.
Journal Article
Timing of influenza epidemics and vaccines in the American tropics, 2002–2008, 2011–2014
Background Influenza‐associated illness results in increased morbidity and mortality in the Americas. These effects can be mitigated with an appropriately chosen and timed influenza vaccination campaign. To provide guidance in choosing the most suitable vaccine formulation and timing of administration, it is necessary to understand the timing of influenza seasonal epidemics. Objectives Our main objective was to determine whether influenza occurs in seasonal patterns in the American tropics and when these patterns occurred. Methods Publicly available, monthly seasonal influenza data from the Pan American Health Organization and WHO, from countries in the American tropics, were obtained during 2002–2008 and 2011–2014 (excluding unseasonal pandemic activity during 2009–2010). For each country, we calculated the monthly proportion of samples that tested positive for influenza. We applied the monthly proportion data to a logistic regression model for each country. Results We analyzed 2002–2008 and 2011–2014 influenza surveillance data from the American tropics and identified 13 (81%) of 16 countries with influenza epidemics that, on average, started during May and lasted 4 months. Conclusions The majority of countries in the American tropics have seasonal epidemics that start in May. Officials in these countries should consider the impact of vaccinating persons during April with the Southern Hemisphere formulation.
Journal Article
Star gazing: Sharon Stone - GETS ROUGHED UP
We know [Sharon Stone]'s no prude, but when we saw these pics of her being thrown out of a Soho peep show, we couldn't believe our eyes. But luckily it's all for the cameras - Shaz, 47, is filming her new movie, Basic Instinct 2, in London.
Newspaper Article