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Gravitational waves are expected to be radiated by supermassive black hole binaries formed during galaxy mergers. A stochastic superposition of gravitational waves from all such binary systems would modulate the arrival times of pulses from radio pulsars. Using observations of millisecond pulsars obtained with the Parkes radio telescope, we constrained the characteristic amplitude of this background, Ac,yr, to be <1.0 × 10–15 with 95% confidence. This limit excludes predicted ranges for Ac,yr from current models with 91 to 99.7% probability. We conclude that binary evolution is either stalled or dramatically accelerated by galactic-center environments and that higher-cadence and shorter-wavelength observations would be more sensitive to gravitational waves.

Time-resolved spectra of six short gamma-ray bursts (sGRBs), measured by the {\\em Swift} telescope, are used to estimate the parameters of a plerion-like model of the X-ray afterglow. The unshrouded, optically thin component of the afterglow is modelled as emanating from an expanding bubble of relativistic, shock-accelerated electrons fuelled by a central object. The electrons are injected with a power-law distribution and cool mainly by synchrotron losses. We compute posteriors for model parameters describing the central engine (e.g. spin frequency at birth, magnetic field strength) and shock acceleration (e.g. power-law index, minimum injection energy). It is found that the central engine is compatible with a millisecond magnetar, and the shock physics is compatible with what occurs in Galactic supernova remnants, assuming standard magnetic field models for the magnetar wind. Separately, we allow the magnetic field to vary arbitrarily and infer that it is roughly constant and lower in magnitude than the wind-borne extension of the inferred magnetar field. This may be due to the expansion history of the bubble, or the magnetization of the circumstellar environment of the sGRB progenitor.

Analyses of quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) are important to understanding the dynamic behaviour in many astrophysical objects during transient events like gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, magnetar flares and fast radio bursts. Astrophysicists often search for QPOs with frequency-domain methods such as (Lomb-Scargle) periodograms, which generally assume power-law models plus some excess around the QPO frequency. Time-series data can alternatively be investigated directly in the time domain using Gaussian Process (GP) regression. While GP regression is computationally expensive in the general case, the properties of astrophysical data and models allow fast likelihood strategies. Heteroscedasticity and non-stationarity in data have been shown to cause bias in periodogram-based analyses. Gaussian processes can take account of these properties. Using GPs, we model QPOs as a stochastic process on top of a deterministic flare shape. Using Bayesian inference, we demonstrate how to infer GP hyperparameters and assign them physical meaning, such as the QPO frequency. We also perform model selection between QPOs and alternative models such as red noise and show that this can be used to reliably find QPOs. This method is easily applicable to a variety of different astrophysical data sets. We demonstrate the use of this method on a range of short transients: a gamma-ray burst, a magnetar flare, a magnetar giant flare, and simulated solar flare data.

Neutron stars spin down over time due to a number of energy-loss processes. We provide tantalizing population-based evidence that millisecond pulsars (MSPs) have a minimum ellipticity of \\(\\epsilon\\approx10^{-9}\\) around their spin axis and that, consequently, some spin down mostly through gravitational-wave emission. We discuss the implications of such a minimum ellipticity in terms of the internal magnetic field strengths and nuclear matter composition of neutron stars and show it would result in the Advanced LIGO and Virgo gravitational-wave detectors, or their upgrades, detecting gravitational waves from some known MSPs in the near future.

Gravitational waves provide a unique tool for observational astronomy. While the first LIGO--Virgo catalogue of gravitational-wave transients (GWTC-1) contains eleven signals from black hole and neutron star binaries, the number of observations is increasing rapidly as detector sensitivity improves. To extract information from the observed signals, it is imperative to have fast, flexible, and scalable inference techniques. In a previous paper, we introduced BILBY: a modular and user-friendly Bayesian inference library adapted to address the needs of gravitational-wave inference. In this work, we demonstrate that BILBY produces reliable results for simulated gravitational-wave signals from compact binary mergers, and verify that it accurately reproduces results reported for the eleven GWTC-1 signals. Additionally, we provide configuration and output files for all analyses to allow for easy reproduction, modification, and future use. This work establishes that BILBY is primed and ready to analyse the rapidly growing population of compact binary coalescence gravitational-wave signals.

We describe 14 years of public data from the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array (PPTA), an ongoing project that is producing precise measurements of pulse times of arrival from 26 millisecond pulsars using the 64-m Parkes radio telescope with a cadence of approximately three weeks in three observing bands. A comprehensive description of the pulsar observing systems employed at the telescope since 2004 is provided, including the calibration methodology and an analysis of the stability of system components. We attempt to provide full accounting of the reduction from the raw measured Stokes parameters to pulse times of arrival to aid third parties in reproducing our results. This conversion is encapsulated in a processing pipeline designed to track provenance. Our data products include pulse times of arrival for each of the pulsars along with an initial set of pulsar parameters and noise models. The calibrated pulse profiles and timing template profiles are also available. These data represent almost 21,000 hrs of recorded data spanning over 14 years. After accounting for processes that induce time-correlated noise, 22 of the pulsars have weighted root-mean-square timing residuals of < 1 \\({\\mu}\\)s in at least one radio band. The data should allow end users to quickly undertake their own gravitational-wave analyses (for example) without having to understand the intricacies of pulsar polarisation calibration or attain a mastery of radio-frequency interference mitigation as is required when analysing raw data files.

We present the results of a cross-correlation search for gravitational waves from SNR 1987A using the second year of LIGO Science Run 5 data. The frequency band 75--450\\,Hz is searched. No evidence of gravitational waves is found. A 90\\% confidence upper limit of \\(h_0 \\leq 3.8\\times10^{-25}\\) is placed on the gravitational wave strain at the most sensitive frequency near 150\\,Hz. This corresponds to an ellipticity of \\(\\epsilon \\leq 8.2\\times10^{-4}\\) and improves on previously published strain upper limits by a factor \\(\\approx4\\). We perform a comprehensive suite of validations of the search algorithm and identify several computational savings which marginally sacrifice sensitivity in order to streamline the parameter space being searched. We estimate detection thresholds and sensitivities through Monte-Carlo simulations.

Pulsar-timing analyses are sensitive to errors in the solar-system ephemerides (SSEs) that timing models utilise to estimate the location of the solar-system barycentre, the quasi-inertial reference frame to which all recorded pulse times-of-arrival are referred. Any error in the SSE will affect all pulsars, therefore pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are a suitable tool to search for such errors and impose independent constraints on relevant physical parameters. We employ the first data release of the International Pulsar Timing Array to constrain the masses of the planet-moons systems and to search for possible unmodelled objects (UMOs) in the solar system. We employ ten SSEs from two independent research groups, derive and compare mass constraints of planetary systems, and derive the first PTA mass constraints on asteroid-belt objects. Constraints on planetary-system masses have been improved by factors of up to 20 from the previous relevant study using the same assumptions, with the mass of the Jovian system measured at 9.5479189(3)\\(\\times10^{-4}\\) \\(M_{\\odot}\\). The mass of the dwarf planet Ceres is measured at 4.7(4)\\(\\times10^{-10}\\) \\(M_{\\odot}\\). We also present the first sensitivity curves using real data that place generic limits on the masses of UMOs, which can also be used as upper limits on the mass of putative exotic objects. For example, upper limits on dark-matter clumps are comparable to published limits using independent methods. While the constraints on planetary masses derived with all employed SSEs are consistent, we note and discuss differences in the associated timing residuals and UMO sensitivity curves.

Pulsar positions can be measured with high precision using both pulsar timing methods and very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI). Pulsar timing positions are referenced to a solar-system ephemeris, whereas VLBI positions are referenced to distant quasars. Here we compare pulsar positions from published VLBI measurements with those obtained from pulsar timing data from the Nanshan and Parkes radio telescopes in order to relate the two reference frames. We find that the timing positions differ significantly from the VLBI positions (and also differ between different ephemerides). A statistically significant change in the obliquity of the ecliptic of \\(2.16\\pm0.33\\)\\,mas is found for the JPL ephemeris DE405, but no significant rotation is found in subsequent JPL ephemerides. The accuracy with which we can relate the two frames is limited by the current uncertainties in the VLBI reference source positions and in matching the pulsars to their reference source. Not only do the timing positions depend on the ephemeris used in computing them, but also different segments of the timing data lead to varying position estimates. These variations are mostly common to all ephemerides, but slight changes are seen at the 10\\(\\mu\\)as level between ephemerides.

We extend profile domain pulsar timing to incorporate wide-band effects such as frequency-dependent profile evolution and broadband shape variation in the pulse profile. We also incorporate models for temporal variations in both pulse width and in the separation in phase of the main pulse and interpulse. We perform the analysis with both nested sampling and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods. In the latter case we introduce a new parameterisation of the posterior that is extremely efficient in the low signal-to-noise regime and can be readily applied to a wide range of scientific problems. We apply this methodology to a series of simulations, and to between seven and nine yr of observations for PSRs J1713\\(+\\)0747, J1744\\(-\\)1134, and J1909\\(-\\)3744 with frequency coverage that spans 700-3600MHz. We use a smooth model for profile evolution across the full frequency range, and compare smooth and piecewise models for the temporal variations in DM. We find the profile domain framework consistently results in improved timing precision compared to the standard analysis paradigm by as much as 40% for timing parameters. Incorporating smoothness in the DM variations into the model further improves timing precision by as much as 30%. For PSR J1713+0747 we also detect pulse shape variation uncorrelated between epochs, which we attribute to variation intrinsic to the pulsar at a level consistent with previously published analyses. Not accounting for this shape variation biases the measured arrival times at the level of \\(\\sim\\)30ns, the same order of magnitude as the expected shift due to gravitational-waves in the pulsar timing band.