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AbstractObjectiveTo review the evidence on the effectiveness of public health measures in reducing the incidence of covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and covid-19 mortality.DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis.Data sourcesMedline, Embase, CINAHL, Biosis, Joanna Briggs, Global Health, and World Health Organization COVID-19 database (preprints).Eligibility criteria for study selectionObservational and interventional studies that assessed the effectiveness of public health measures in reducing the incidence of covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and covid-19 mortality.Main outcome measuresThe main outcome measure was incidence of covid-19. Secondary outcomes included SARS-CoV-2 transmission and covid-19 mortality.Data synthesisDerSimonian Laird random effects meta-analysis was performed to investigate the effect of mask wearing, handwashing, and physical distancing measures on incidence of covid-19. Pooled effect estimates with corresponding 95% confidence intervals were computed, and heterogeneity among studies was assessed using Cochran’s Q test and the I2 metrics, with two tailed P values.Results72 studies met the inclusion criteria, of which 35 evaluated individual public health measures and 37 assessed multiple public health measures as a “package of interventions.” Eight of 35 studies were included in the meta-analysis, which indicated a reduction in incidence of covid-19 associated with handwashing (relative risk 0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.19 to 1.12, I2=12%), mask wearing (0.47, 0.29 to 0.75, I2=84%), and physical distancing (0.75, 0.59 to 0.95, I2=87%). Owing to heterogeneity of the studies, meta-analysis was not possible for the outcomes of quarantine and isolation, universal lockdowns, and closures of borders, schools, and workplaces. The effects of these interventions were synthesised descriptively.ConclusionsThis systematic review and meta-analysis suggests that several personal protective and social measures, including handwashing, mask wearing, and physical distancing are associated with reductions in the incidence covid-19. Public health efforts to implement public health measures should consider community health and sociocultural needs, and future research is needed to better understand the effectiveness of public health measures in the context of covid-19 vaccination.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42020178692.

Instagram has more than one billion monthly users, which presents a unique research opportunity particularly in rare diseases or hard to reach populations. This study focuses on acute myeloid leukaemia, a rare haematological malignancy and aims to characterise who posts acute myeloid leukaemia-related content and the type of content created. The findings can provide information and a method for future studies, particularly those focused on online or social media based interventions. Acute myeloid leukaemia-related Instagram posts were identified by searching specific and relevant hashtags (#). A content analysis systematically classified themes in the data. A convenience sample of 100 posts (138 photos) were manually extracted and coded. Data are described using descriptive statistics and demonstrated by qualitative examples. The most frequent users in our sample were patients (66%), patient support networks (24%) and professional organisations (10%). Patients who were communicating their health update (31%) were the most frequently posted content and 25% of these posts described a symptom experience. Our findings demonstrate that patients and their support networks are frequenting Instagram and therefore may be able to receive and benefit from tailored intervention, however there is an identified gap in health-organisations participating in this virtual online community.

Resuscitated cardiac arrest is associated with high mortality; however, the ability to estimate risk of adverse outcomes using existing illness severity scores is limited. Using in-hospital data available within the first 24 hours of admission, we aimed to develop more accurate models of risk prediction using both logistic regression (LR) and machine learning (ML) techniques, with a combination of demographic, physiologic, and biochemical information. Patient-level data were extracted from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Adult Patient Database for patients who had experienced a cardiac arrest within 24 hours prior to admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) during the period January 2006 to December 2016. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. The models were trained and tested on a dataset (split 90:10) including age, lowest and highest physiologic variables during the first 24 hours, and key past medical history. LR and 5 ML approaches (gradient boosting machine [GBM], support vector classifier [SVC], random forest [RF], artificial neural network [ANN], and an ensemble) were compared to the APACHE III and Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death (ANZROD) predictions. In all, 39,566 patients from 186 ICUs were analysed. Mean (±SD) age was 61 ± 17 years; 65% were male. Overall in-hospital mortality was 45.5%. Models were evaluated in the test set. The APACHE III and ANZROD scores demonstrated good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] = 0.80 [95% CI 0.79-0.82] and 0.81 [95% CI 0.8-0.82], respectively) and modest calibration (Brier score 0.19 for both), which was slightly improved by LR (AUROC = 0.82 [95% CI 0.81-0.83], DeLong test, p < 0.001). Discrimination was significantly improved using ML models (ensemble and GBM AUROCs = 0.87 [95% CI 0.86-0.88], DeLong test, p < 0.001), with an improvement in performance (Brier score reduction of 22%). Explainability models were created to assist in identifying the physiologic features that most contributed to an individual patient's survival. Key limitations include the absence of pre-hospital data and absence of external validation. ML approaches significantly enhance predictive discrimination for mortality following cardiac arrest compared to existing illness severity scores and LR, without the use of pre-hospital data. The discriminative ability of these ML models requires validation in external cohorts to establish generalisability.

Streptoccocus suis (S.suis) infection is a neglected zoonosis disease in humans mainly affects men of working age. We estimated the health and economic burden of S.suis infection in Thailand in terms of years of life lost, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost, and productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) lost which is a novel measure that adjusts years of life lived for productivity loss attributable to disease. A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to simulate the impact of S. suis infection and its major complications: death, meningitis and infective endocarditis among Thai people in 2019 with starting age of 51 years. Transition probabilities, and inputs pertaining to costs, utilities and productivity impairment associated with long-term complications were derived from published sources. A lifetime time horizon with follow-up until death or age 100 years was adopted. The simulation was repeated assuming that the cohort had not been infected with S.suis. The differences between the two set of model outputs in years of life, QALYs, and PALYs lived reflected the impact of S.suis infection. An annual discount rate of 3% was applied to both costs and outcomes. One-way sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulation modeling technique using 10,000 iterations were performed to assess the impact of uncertainty in the model. This cohort incurred 769 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 695 to 841) years of life lost (14% of predicted years of life lived if infection had not occurred), 826 (95% UI: 588 to 1,098) QALYs lost (21%) and 793 (95%UI: 717 to 867) PALYs (15%) lost. These equated to an average of 2.46 years of life, 2.64 QALYs and 2.54 PALYs lost per person. The loss in PALYs was associated with a loss of 346 (95% UI: 240 to 461) million Thai baht (US$11.3 million) in GDP, which equated to 1.1 million Thai baht (US$ 36,033) lost per person. S.suis infection imposes a significant economic burden both in terms of health and productivity. Further research to investigate the effectiveness of public health awareness programs and disease control interventions should be mandated to provide a clearer picture for decision making in public health strategies and resource allocations.

ObjectivesMultimorbidity, defined as two or more chronic medical conditions, leads to the use of multiple medicines, including for cardiovascular conditions. This is associated with frailty and an increased risk of medication-related harm. Hospitalised adults have higher rates of multimorbidity and frailty compared with non-hospitalised adults. The aim of this study was to examine the use of medicines for hypertension, ischaemic heart disease and atrial fibrillation among patients with multimorbidity and frailty, who are generally not well represented in clinical trials.DesignA cross-sectional study was performed of adults aged ≥45 years with inpatient admissions during an 18-month period. Regular medications prescribed at discharge and coding data were obtained from the electronic medical record and hospital datasets.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe prevalence of multimorbidity (using coded chronic medical conditions or the RxRisk pharmaceutical comorbidity index), frailty (using hospital frailty risk score) and polypharmacy (defined as ≥5 medicines) were calculated. The uptake of medicines recommended by the Australian Therapeutic Guidelines for patients with coded hypertension, ischaemic heart disease and atrial fibrillation was also assessed.SettingTwo large acute care, teaching hospitals in Adelaide, South Australia.Participants23 980 unique patients were identified.Results69% (n=16 637) of patients had multimorbidity using the coding definition compared with 94% (n=22 620) using the pharmaceutical comorbidity score. 81% (n=19 366) had polypharmacy and 46% (n=11 091) had frailty. More than 85% of patients with hypertension were taking an antihypertensive. More than 75% of patients with ischaemic heart disease were taking an antithrombotic or a lipid-lowering agent and more than 50% were taking an agent acting on the renin-angiotensin system. Over 70% of patients with atrial fibrillation without a contraindication to anticoagulation were taking an anticoagulant. Patients with multimorbidity were 11–51% more likely to be taking an antihypertensive, antithrombotic or lipid-lowering medicine for the respective cardiovascular conditions, whereas those with frailty were 31–48% less likely to be taking guideline-directed medicines for all conditions studied.ConclusionsOver two-thirds of hospitalised patients with these cardiovascular conditions were taking at least one guideline-directed medicine. Medication use was generally more common in multimorbidity and less common in frailty. Outcomes studies are needed to quantify the risks and benefits of cardiovascular medicines in these patients.

Clinical trials have shown that radial access percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is associated with improved patient outcomes compared to femoral artery access. However, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of radial access PCI. This analysis sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of transradial versus transfemoral access PCI for patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) using data from the Minimizing Adverse Hemorrhagic Events by Transradial Access Site and Systemic Implementation of Angiox (MATRIX) trial. A decision analytic Markov model was constructed from an Australian health care perspective with a 2 year time horizon. The model simulated recurrent cardiovascular disease and death post PCI among a hypothetical cohort of 1000 individuals with ACS. Population and efficacy data were based on the MATRIX trial. Cost and utility data were drawn from published sources. Over a 2-year time horizon, radial access was predicted to save 12 (discounted) quality adjusted life years (QALYs) compared with femoral access PCI. Cost savings (discounted) amounted to AUD $51,305. Hence from a health economic point of view, radial access PCI was dominant over femoral access PCI. Sensitivity analyses supported the robustness of these findings. Radial access PCI is likely to be associated with both better outcomes and lower costs compared to femoral access PCI over 2 years post procedure. In conclusion, these findings support radial access being the preferred approach in PCI for ACS.

In the present study, we aimed to estimate the impact of hypertension in the working-age Japanese population. We developed life table models to estimate total deaths, years of life lived, and productivity-adjusted life years lived (a newly developed metric for quantifying the burden of acute and chronic health conditions on work productivity) among Japanese individuals with hypertension aged 20-64 years, with simulated follow-up until age 65 years. Data inputs were drawn from local population statistics and published sources. Gross domestic product per person employed, a measure of labor productivity, was used to assign an economic value to each productivity-adjusted life year lived. Outcomes and costs were discounted by 2% annually. In 2017, 26.3 million Japanese individuals aged 20-64 years (37.5%) had hypertension. Of these people, 23.7% were treated and had controlled blood pressure, 23.2% were treated but had uncontrolled blood pressure, and 53.1% were untreated. During the simulated follow-up until age 65 years, 335,342 deaths (28.0% of total deaths), 1.6 million years of life (0.8% of total), 3.1 million productivity-adjusted life years (1.9% of total), and US$242.9 billion or 28.3 trillion Japanese yen of gross domestic product were lost to hypertension. Our findings highlight the considerable economic burden of hypertension in Japan, as well as the importance of effective strategies for hypertension prevention and management, which are likely to deliver a significant return on investment.

Dihydrosphingolipids refer to sphingolipids early in the biosynthetic pathway that do not contain a C4-trans-double bond in the sphingoid backbone: 3-ketosphinganine (3-ketoSph), dihydrosphingosine (dhSph), dihydrosphingosine-1-phosphate (dhS1P) and dihydroceramide (dhCer). Recent advances in research related to sphingolipid biochemistry have shed light on the importance of sphingolipids in terms of cellular signalling in health and disease. However, dihydrosphingolipids have received less attention and research is lacking especially in terms of their molecular mechanisms of action. This is despite studies implicating them in the pathophysiology of disease, for example dhCer in predicting type 2 diabetes in obese individuals, dhS1P in cardiovascular diseases and dhSph in hepato-renal toxicity. This review gives a comprehensive summary of research in the last 10–15 years on the dihydrosphingolipids, 3-ketoSph, dhSph, dhS1P and dhCer, and their relevant roles in different diseases. It also highlights gaps in research that could be of future interest.

ObjectiveMost studies investigating the association between resting heart rate (RHR) and mortality have focused on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and measured RHR at only one time point. We aimed to assess associations of RHR and changes in RHR over approximately a decade with overall and cause-specific mortality.MethodsWe used data from participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study with RHR measures at baseline (1990–1994; n=41 386; 9846 deaths) and at follow-up (2003–2007; n=21 692; 2818 deaths). RHR measures were taken by trained staff, using Dinamap monitors. Cox models were used to estimate HR and 95% CI for the associations between RHR and mortality. Vital status and cause of death were ascertained until August 2015 and December 2013, respectively.ResultsAfter adjustment for confounders, including blood pressure and known medical conditions but not arrhythmias or atrial fibrillation, RHR was associated with a higher risk of death of similar magnitude for CVD (HR per 10 beats per minute (bpm)=1.11, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.16), cancer (HR=1.10, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.13) and other causes (HR=1.20, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.25). Higher mortality was observed for most cancer sites, including breast (HR=1.16, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.31), colorectal (HR=1.18, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.29), kidney (HR=1.27, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.57) and lung cancer (HR=1.19, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.29). Temporal increases in RHR were associated with higher mortality, particularly for individuals whose RHR increased by more than 15 bpm.ConclusionsRHR and changes in RHR over a decade are associated with mortality risk, including from causes other than CVD such as breast, colorectal or lung cancer. Monitoring of RHR may have utility in identifying individuals at higher mortality risk.

Background and objective: This paper describes the overall number of prescriptions and unique medicines dispensed and costs borne by a cohort of patients treated with lipid-lowering therapy and report on associations with age, concessional status and comorbidity. Methods: This was a 12-month cross-sectional study using the 10% random sample of the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) dispensing data for 2019. Results: A high number of prescriptions and unique medicines dispensed was associated with older age, concessional status and comorbidity. Around one-quarter of patients aged 61-80 years were dispensed >=57 prescriptions, >=10 unique medicines and seven or more unique long-term medicines during the year. PBS status was the strongest predictor of cost borne, with one-quarter of general beneficiaries paying 760 or more. Discussion: This cohort commonly has related comorbidities resulting in multiple prescribed medicines, frequent dispensing and out-of-pocket costs. General practitioners are likely aware of patients' overall health and circumstances and can assist with periodic medicine review and the use of combination or extended-release preparations when available. Improved knowledge of the PBS safety net would be beneficial. Recent changes to the PBS will effect some reduction in dispensing frequency and cost borne by patients, but these changes could be extended.