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ABSTRACTBackgroundWorldwide, countries are examining whether to implement 1-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination instead of using 2 doses. To inform policy, we sought to project the population-level impact and efficiency of switching from 2-dose to 1-dose gender-neutral routine HPV vaccination in Canada. MethodsWe used HPV-ADVISE, an individual-based transmission-dynamic model of HPV infections and diseases, to mathematically model vaccination programs in 2 provinces, Quebec, a province with high HPV vaccination coverage (around 85%), and Ontario, which has lower coverage (around 65%). We examined non-inferior and pessimistic scenarios of the efficacy (vaccine efficacy of 98% or 90%) and average vaccine duration (lifelong, 30 yr, or 25 yr) of 1 dose compared with 2 doses (98% vaccine efficacy, lifelong vaccine duration). Our main outcomes were the relative reduction in HPV-16 (by sex) and cervical cancers, and the number of doses needed to prevent 1 cervical cancer. ResultsOur model projected that 1-dose HPV vaccination would avert a similar number of cervical cancers as 2 doses in Canada, under various scenarios. Under the most pessimistic scenario (25-yr vaccine duration), 1-dose vaccination would avert fewer cervical cancers than 2 doses, by about 3 percentage points over 100 years. All 1-dose scenarios were projected to lead to elimination of cervical cancer (< 4 cervical cancers/100 000 female-years) and to be a substantially more efficient use of vaccine doses than a 2-dose scenario (1-dose v. no vaccination = 800–1000 doses needed to prevent 1 cervical cancer; incremental doses for 2-dose v. 1-dose vaccination > 10 000 doses needed to prevent 1 additional cervical cancer). InterpretationIf the average duration of 1-dose protection is longer than 25 years, a 1-dose HPV vaccination program would protect those vaccinated during their peak ages of sexual activity and prevent a similar number of HPV-related cancers as a 2-dose program, while being a more efficient use of vaccine doses.

This investigation was done to assess vaccine effectiveness of one and two doses of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine during an outbreak of mumps in Ontario. The level of coverage required to reach herd immunity and interrupt community transmission of mumps was also estimated. Information on confirmed cases of mumps was retrieved from Ontario's integrated Public Health Information System. Cases that occurred between Sept. 1, 2009, and June 10, 2010, were included. Selected health units supplied coverage data from the Ontario Immunization Record Information System. Vaccine effectiveness by dose was calculated using the screening method. The basic reproductive number (R0) represents the average number of new infections per case in a fully susceptile population, and R0 values of between 4 and 10 were considered for varying levels of vaccine effectiveness. A total of 134 confirmed cases of mumps were identified. Information on receipt of MMR vaccine was available for 114 (85.1%) cases, of whom 63 (55.3%) reported having received only one dose of vaccine; 32 (28.1%) reported having received two doses. Vaccine effectiveness of one dose of the MMR vaccine ranged from 49.2% to 81.6%, whereas vaccine effectiveness of two doses ranged from 66.3% to 88.0%. If we assume vaccine effectiveness of 85% for two doses of the vaccine, vaccine coverage of 88.2% and 98.0% would be needed to interrupt community transmission of mumps if the corresponding reproductive values were four and six. Our estimates of vaccine effectiveness of one and two doses of mumps-containing vaccine were consistent with the estimates that have been reported in other outbreaks. Outbreaks occurring in Ontario and elsewhere serve as a warning against complacency over vaccination programs.