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1. The addition of large water storage dams to rivers in California's Central Valley blocked access to spawning habitat and has resulted in a dramatic decline in the distribution and abundance of spring-run chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha (Walbaum 1792). Successful recovery efforts depend on an understanding of the historical spatial structure of these populations, which heretofore has been lacking. 2. Graph theory was used to examine the spatial structure and demographic connectivity of riverine populations of spring-run chinook salmon. Standard graph theoretic measures, including degree, edge weight and node strength, were used to uncover the role of individual populations in this network, i.e. which populations were sources and which were pseudo-sinks. 3. Larger spatially proximate populations, most notably the Pit River, served as sources in the historic graph. These source populations in the graph were marked by an increased number of stronger outbound connections (edges), and on average had few inbound connections. Of the edges in the current graph, seven of them were outbound from a population supported by a hatchery in the Feather River, which suggests a strong influence of the hatchery on the structure of the current extant populations. 4. We tested how the addition of water storage dams fragmented the graph over time by examining changing patterns in connectivity and demographic isolation of individual populations. Dams constructed in larger spatially proximate populations had a strong impact on the independence of remaining populations. Specifically, the addition of dams resulted in lost connections, weaker remaining connections and an increase in demographic isolation. 5. A simulation exercise that removed populations from the graph under different removal scenarios - random removal, removal by decreasing habitat size and removal by decreasing node strength - revealed a potential approach for restoration of these depleted populations. 6. Synthesis and applications. Spatial graphs are drawing the attention of ecologists and managers. Here we have used a directed graph to uncover the historical spatial structure of a threatened species, estimate the connectivity of the current populations, examine how the historical network of populations was fragmented over time and provide a plausible mechanism for ecologically successful restoration. The methods employed here can be applied broadly across taxa and systems, and afford scientists and managers a better understanding of the structure and function of impaired ecosystems.

Worldwide, sturgeons (Acipenseridae) are among the most endangered fishes due to habitat degradation, overfishing, and inherent life history characteristics (long life span, late maturation, and infrequent spawning). As most sturgeons are anadromous, a considerable portion of their life history occurs in estuarine and marine environments where they may encounter unique threats (e.g., interception in non-target fisheries). Of the 16 marine-oriented species, 12 are designated as Critically Endangered by the IUCN, and these include species commercially harvested. We review important research tools and techniques (tagging, electronic tagging, genetics, microchemistry, observatory) and discuss the comparative utility of these techniques to investigate movements, migrations, and life-history characteristics of sturgeons. Examples are provided regarding what the applications have revealed regarding movement and migration and how this information can be used for conservation and management. Through studies that include Gulf (Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi) and Green Sturgeon (A. medirostris), we illustrate what is known about well-studied species and then explore lesser-studied species. A more complete picture of migration is available for North American sturgeon species, while European and Asian species, which are among the most endangered sturgeons, are less understood. We put forth recommendations that encourage the support of stewardship initiatives to build awareness and provide key information for population assessment and monitoring.

Quantifying the variability in the delivery of ecosystem services across the landscape can be used to set appropriate management targets, evaluate resilience and target conservation efforts. Ecosystem functions and services may exhibit portfolio‐type dynamics, whereby diversity within lower levels promotes stability at more aggregated levels. Portfolio theory provides a framework to characterize the relative performance among ecosystems and the processes that drive differences in performance. We assessed Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. portfolio performance across their native latitudinal range focusing on the reliability of salmon returns as a metric with which to assess the function of salmon ecosystems and their services to humans. We used the Sharpe ratio (e.g. the size of the total salmon return to the portfolio relative to its variability (risk)) to evaluate the performance of Chinook and sockeye salmon portfolios across the west coast of North America. We evaluated the effects on portfolio performance from the variance of and covariance among salmon returns within each portfolio, and the association between portfolio performance and watershed attributes. We found a positive latitudinal trend in the risk‐adjusted performance of Chinook and sockeye salmon portfolios that also correlated negatively with anthropogenic impact on watersheds (e.g. dams and land‐use change). High‐latitude Chinook salmon portfolios were on average 2·5 times more reliable, and their portfolio risk was mainly due to low variance in the individual assets. Sockeye salmon portfolios were also more reliable at higher latitudes, but sources of risk varied among the highest performing portfolios. Synthesis and applications. Portfolio theory provides a straightforward method for characterizing the resilience of salmon ecosystems and their services. Natural variability in portfolio performance among undeveloped watersheds provides a benchmark for restoration efforts. Locally and regionally, assessing the sources of portfolio risk can guide actions to maintain existing resilience (protect habitat and disturbance regimes that maintain response diversity; employ harvest strategies sensitive to different portfolio components) or improve restoration activities. Improving our understanding of portfolio reliability may allow for management of natural resources that is robust to ongoing environmental change.

An understanding of oceanographic conditions and processes important to marine animal ecology is fundamental to the development of effective management and conservation actions. Longfin Smelt ( Spirinchus thaleichthys ) is a pelagic forage fish found in coastal and estuarine waters along the Pacific coast of North America from Alaska to central California. Substantial population declines in California’s San Francisco Estuary, where Longfin Smelt are protected under California’s Endangered Species Act, have prompted extensive study of estuarine factors associated with the decline. However, coastal factors that affect up to two-thirds of the Longfin Smelt life cycle are poorly understood and may be important drivers of population dynamics. We compiled coastal observations from numerous sources to estimate the range-wide coastal marine distribution of Longfin Smelt and assess habitat factors affecting distribution in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Based on maximum entropy species distribution models, Longfin Smelt distribution was correlated with depth, distance from the nearest estuary, sea surface temperature, and sea surface chlorophyll. Longfin Smelt were found in shallow, higher productivity coastal waters closer to estuaries, with depth and temperature the most consistent factors influencing distribution. Habitat suitability was highly variable at the southern extent of the range, particularly off the California coast, and was largely driven by habitat contractions associated with warm-water conditions. Study results provide insights into the habitat and range-wide distribution of an at-risk estuarine-reliant forage fish and are the first step toward identifying processes that affect the marine portion of the Longfin Smelt life cycle.

Understanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure and function, as well as developing strategies to adapt to the full range of potential changes. This study applies the NOAA Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method to 64 federally-managed species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem to assess their vulnerability to climate change, where vulnerability is a function of a species’ exposure to environmental change and its biological sensitivity to a set of environmental conditions, which includes components of its resiliency and adaptive capacity to respond to these new conditions. Overall, two-thirds of the species were judged to have Moderate or greater vulnerability to climate change, and only one species was anticipated to have a positive response. Species classified as Highly or Very Highly vulnerable share one or more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize a wide range of freshwater and marine habitats; 2) having habitat specialization, particularly for areas that are likely to experience increased hypoxia; 3) having long lifespans with low population growth rates; and/or 4) being of high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such as anthropogenic habitat degradation. Species with low or Moderate vulnerability are either habitat generalists, occupy deep-water habitats or are highly mobile and likely to shift their ranges. As climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information for both scientists and managers as they address the long-term sustainability of fisheries in the region. This information will inform near-term advice for prioritizing species-level data collection and research on climate impacts , help managers to determine when and where a precautionary approach might be warranted, in harvest or other management decisions, and help identify habitats or life history stages that might be especially important to protect or restore

Life histories of migratory species such as anadromous fishes make them particularly susceptible to composite effects of processes experienced across distinct habitats and life stages. Therefore, their population dynamics are difficult to quantify and manage without tools such as life‐cycle models. As a model species for which life‐cycle modeling is particularly useful, we provide an analysis of influential processes affecting dynamics of the Central Valley fall‐run Chinook salmon (CVFC) population (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). This analysis demonstrates how, through identification of covariates that affect this population at each life stage and their relationship to one another, it is possible to identify actions that best promote sustainability for this anadromous species. We developed a life‐cycle model for CVFC examining primary processes influencing variability in observed patterns of escapement from 1988 to 2016. CVFC are a valuable fishery along the US West Coast; however, their natural population is a fraction of its historic size, and recent low escapements have resulted in substantial restrictions on the fishery. Our model explains 68.3% of variability in historic escapement values. The most influential processes include temperatures experienced during egg incubation, freshwater flow during juvenile outmigration, and environmentally mediated predation during early marine residence. This work demonstrates the need, and methodology, for considering the interactions between freshwater and marine dynamics when evaluating the efficacy of managerial practices in freshwater and the ocean, especially in the context of increased environmental variability, climate change, and dynamic predator populations. The methodology developed in this study can be used toward improved conservation and management of other anadromous fishes and migratory species.

The green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris), which is found in the eastern Pacific Ocean from Baja California to the Bering Sea, tends to be highly migratory, moving long distances among estuaries, spawning rivers, and distant coastal regions. Factors that determine the oceanic distribution of green sturgeon are unclear, but broad-scale physical conditions interacting with migration behavior may play an important role. We estimated the distribution of green sturgeon by modeling species-environment relationships using oceanographic and migration behavior covariates with maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) of species geographic distributions. The primary concentration of green sturgeon was estimated from approximately 41-51.5° N latitude in the coastal waters of Washington, Oregon, and Vancouver Island and in the vicinity of San Francisco and Monterey Bays from 36-37° N latitude. Unsuitably cold water temperatures in the far north and energetic efficiencies associated with prevailing water currents may provide the best explanation for the range-wide marine distribution of green sturgeon. Independent trawl records, fisheries observer records, and tagging studies corroborated our findings. However, our model also delineated patchily distributed habitat south of Monterey Bay, though there are few records of green sturgeon from this region. Green sturgeon are likely influenced by countervailing pressures governing their dispersal. They are behaviorally directed to revisit natal freshwater spawning rivers and persistent overwintering grounds in coastal marine habitats, yet they are likely physiologically bounded by abiotic and biotic environmental features. Impacts of human activities on green sturgeon or their habitat in coastal waters, such as bottom-disturbing trawl fisheries, may be minimized through marine spatial planning that makes use of high-quality species distribution information.

It is now routinely possible to generate genomics‐scale datasets for nonmodel species; however, many questions remain about how best to use these data for conservation and management. Some recent genomics studies of anadromous Pacific salmonids have reported a strong association between alleles at one or a very few genes and a key life history trait (adult migration timing) that has played an important role in defining conservation units. Publication of these results has already spurred a legal challenge to the existing framework for managing these species, which was developed under the paradigm that most phenotypic traits are controlled by many genes of small effect, and that parallel evolution of life history traits is common. But what if a key life history trait can only be expressed if a specific allele is present? Does the current framework need to be modified to account for the new genomics results, as some now propose? Although this real‐world example focuses on Pacific salmonids, the issues regarding how genomics can inform us about the genetic basis of phenotypic traits, and what that means for applied conservation, are much more general. In this perspective, we consider these issues and outline a general process that can be used to help generate the types of additional information that would be needed to make informed decisions about the adequacy of existing conservation and management frameworks.

Two decades have passed since the initiation of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s research program aimed at advancing the understanding of estuary and ocean ecology of U.S. West Coast Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). In this review and prospectus, we summarize key findings from this program and describe a plan for transitioning it to better support Ecosystem-Based Management (EBM). While we focus on salmon research, our approach applies to research design generally. Our path forward involves increasing understanding of ecosystem processes to improve the dependability of scenario testing under novel conditions. Over the past two decades, we developed a conceptual model for how climate, predators, prey, fisheries, and human activities influence salmon. Knowledge gaps we identified from our conceptual model include limited understanding of salmon distributions, behavior, maturation dynamics, and population dynamics, and salmon interactions with predators, competitors, and prey during winter. We consider emerging risks and vulnerabilities facing salmon and propose analysis frameworks for evaluating them. Increased predator populations, coupled with climate change, pose increasing threats to West Coast salmon and will require new strategies and actions to mitigate their negative impacts. We propose research to support the development of decision-support tools to evaluate tradeoffs associated with alternative management strategies and to inform an adaptive ecosystem management system to improve the resilience of salmon populations and salmon-dependent fisheries.

The green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris) is a highly migratory, oceanic, anadromous species with a complex life history that makes it vulnerable to species-wide threats in both freshwater and at sea. Green sturgeon population declines have preceded legal protection and curtailment of activities in marine environments deemed to increase its extinction risk. Yet, its marine habitat is poorly understood. We built a statistical model to characterize green sturgeon marine habitat using data from a coastal tracking array located along the Siletz Reef near Newport, Oregon, USA that recorded the passage of 37 acoustically tagged green sturgeon. We classified seafloor physical habitat features with high-resolution bathymetric and backscatter data. We then described the distribution of habitat components and their relationship to green sturgeon presence using ordination and subsequently used generalized linear model selection to identify important habitat components. Finally, we summarized depth and temperature recordings from seven green sturgeon present off the Oregon coast that were fitted with pop-off archival geolocation tags. Our analyses indicated that green sturgeon, on average, spent a longer duration in areas with high seafloor complexity, especially where a greater proportion of the substrate consists of boulders. Green sturgeon in marine habitats are primarily found at depths of 20-60 meters and from 9.5-16.0°C. Many sturgeon in this study were likely migrating in a northward direction, moving deeper, and may have been using complex seafloor habitat because it coincides with the distribution of benthic prey taxa or provides refuge from predators. Identifying important green sturgeon marine habitat is an essential step towards accurately defining the conditions that are necessary for its survival and will eventually yield range-wide, spatially explicit predictions of green sturgeon distribution.