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Tropical forest loss and degradation in watersheds disrupt essential ecosystem services that regulate water flow, often causing devastating floods that impact agricultural productivity and impoverish downstream communities. Despite its importance, evaluations of the interconnectedness between the depletion of hydrological services and flooding lack an evidence-base in the Global South and, therefore, have little influence on policy dialogue. In this study, we focus on the forest-rich province of Aceh, Indonesia, using local and national newspaper articles to compile information on flood events between 2011 and 2018. We explored spatio-temporal flood patterns with a combination of climatic, topographic, and environmental factors. We compiled 2,029 reported flood events in mainland Aceh located in 20 of the 21 districts/cities, with a disproportionately high occurrence (71%) in four districts. The trend of flood events exhibited an increasing pattern between 2011 and 2018. Over this period, floods displaced ~158,000 people and damaged ~24,500 houses and ~11,500 ha of agricultural land. Our generalized linear mixed-effect model found that reported flood events were more likely to occur in areas with lower tree cover, more oil palm plantations, and higher precipitation. Areas with a lower human population density and higher poverty rates were found to be most susceptible to flooding events. Our findings highlight the critical link between forest preservation and flood prevention, and the irreplaceable role that forests play in ensuring the well-being of local communities, especially those affected by poverty. Our study underscores the importance of considering these interconnected factors in future land use and economic development plans and policies.

Co-occurrence between mesopredators can be achieved by differentiation of prey, temporal activity, and spatial habitat use. The study of mesopredator interactions is a growing area of research in tropical forests and shedding new light on inter-guild competition between threatened vertebrate species that were previously little understood. Here, we investigate sympatry between the Sunda clouded leopard (Neofelis diardi) and Asiatic golden cat (Pardofelis temminckii) living in the Sumatran rainforests of Indonesia. We investigate: i) spatial overlap of predator-prey species using a combination of single-species occupancy modelling and Bayesian two-species modelling, while controlling for the possible influence of several confounding landscape variables; and, ii) temporal overlap between mesopredators and their shared prey through calculating their kernel density estimate associations. From four study areas, representing lowland, hill, sub-montane and montane forest, 28,404 camera trap nights were sampled. Clouded leopard and golden cat were respectively detected in 24.3% and 22.6% of the 292 sampling sites (camera stations) and co-occurred in 29.6% of the sites where they were detected. Golden cat occupancy was highest in the study area where clouded leopard occupancy was lowest and conversely lowest in the study area where clouded leopard occupancy was highest. However, our fine-scale (camera trap site) analyses found no evidence of avoidance between these two felid species. While both mesopredators exhibited highest spatial overlap with the larger-bodied prey species, temporal niche separation was also found. Clouded leopard was more nocturnal and, consequently, had higher temporal overlap with the more nocturnal prey species, such as porcupine and mouse deer, whereas the more diurnal golden cat had higher overlap with the strictly diurnal great argus pheasant. The Bayesian two species occupancy modelling approach applied in our study fills several important knowledge gaps of Sumatra's lesser known mesopredators and provides a replicable methodology for studying interspecific competition for other small-medium sized carnivore species in the tropics.

The spread of the most recent African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in Asia since late 2018 poses a significant threat to endemic pig species and socioeconomic security. Within domestic pigs and free‐living Eurasian wild boars (both Sus scrofa) in Asia, ASF causes almost 100% case fatality. The ongoing ASF epidemic has so far caused the death of over one hundred million domestic pigs, causing unprecedented economic impacts on the global pork industry. Transmission among free‐living wild boars has been reported, and transmission to threatened Asian pig species is probable but lacks research. Our assessment reveals a near‐term risk for Southeast Asia's 11 endemic pig species, which have small population sizes and small ranges that may be insufficient to withstand the initial, lethal onslaught of the disease. The decline of pigs also triggers cascading impacts for endangered carnivores, plant communities, and livelihoods of millions of people. Our management recommendations include time‐critical research themes, improved emerging infectious disease detection through site‐based monitoring and surveillance paired with online reporting and proper carcass disposal.

Across the tropics, large-bodied mammals have been affected by selective logging in ways that vary with levels of timber extraction, collateral damage, species-specific traits and secondary effects of hunting, as facilitated by improved access through logging roads. In Peninsular Malaysia, 3.0 million hectares or 61 percent of its Permanent Reserved Forests is officially assigned for commercial selective logging. Understanding how wildlife adapts and uses logged forest is critical for its management and, for threatened species, their conservation. In this study, we quantify the population status of four tropical ungulate species in a large selectively logged forest reserve and an adjacent primary forest protected area. We then conduct finer scale analyses to identify the species-specific factors that determine their occurrence. A combined indirect sign-camera trapping approach with a large sampling effort (2,665 km and 27,780 trap nights surveyed) covering a wide area (560 km 2 ) generated species-specific detection probabilities and site occupancies. Populations of wild boar were widespread across both logged and primary forests, whereas sambar and muntjac occupancy was lower in logged forest (48.4% and 19.2% respectively), with gaur showing no significant difference. Subsequent modelling revealed the importance of conserving lower elevation habitat in both habitat types, particularly <1,000 m asl, for which occupancies of sambar, muntjac and gaur were typically higher. This finding is important because 75 percent (~13,400 km 2 ) of Peninsular Malaysia’s Main Range Forest (Banjaran Titiwangsa) is under 1,000 m asl and therefore at risk of being converted to industrial timber plantations, which calls for renewed thinking around forest management planning.

Tigers are critically endangered due to deforestation and persecution. Yet in places, Sumatran tigers ( Panthera tigris sumatrae ) continue to coexist with people, offering insights for managing wildlife elsewhere. Here, we couple spatial models of encounter risk with information on tolerance from 2386 Sumatrans to reveal drivers of human–tiger conflict. Risk of encountering tigers was greater around populated villages that neighboured forest or rivers connecting tiger habitat; geographic profiles refined these predictions to three core areas. People’s tolerance for tigers was related to underlying attitudes, emotions, norms and spiritual beliefs. Combining this information into socio-ecological models yielded predictions of tolerance that were 32 times better than models based on social predictors alone. Pre-emptive intervention based on these socio-ecological predictions could have averted up to 51% of attacks on livestock and people, saving 15 tigers. Our work provides further evidence of the benefits of interdisciplinary research on conservation conflicts. Human-tiger conflict occurs where there is a higher risk of encountering tigers. Here, Struebig et al. use geographic profiling to predict risk of encounters in Sumatra, and show that combining risk measures with social data on tolerance could help prioritise regions for conflict mitigation efforts.

Deforestation is rapidly transforming primary forests across the tropics into human-dominated landscapes. Consequently, conservationists need to understand how different taxa respond and adapt to these changes in order to develop appropriate management strategies. Our two year study seeks to determine how wild Sumatran orangutans (Pongo abelii) adapt to living in an isolated agroforest landscape by investigating the sex of crop-raiders related to population demographics, and their temporal variations in feeding behaviour and dietary composition. From focal animal sampling we found that nine identified females raided cultivated fruits more than the four males. Seasonal adaptations were shown through orangutan feeding habits that shifted from being predominantly fruit-based (56% of the total feeding time, then 22% on bark) to the fallback food of bark (44%, then 35% on fruits), when key cultivated resources such as jackfruit (Artocarpus integer), were unavailable. Cultivated fruits were mostly consumed in the afternoon and evening, when farmers had returned home. The finding that females take greater crop-raiding risks than males differs from previous human-primate conflict studies, probably because of the low risks associated (as farmers rarely retaliated) and low intraspecific competition between males. Thus, the behavioral ecology of orangutans living in this human-dominated landscape differs markedly from that in primary forest, where orangutans have a strictly wild food diet, even where primary rainforests directly borders farmland. The importance of wild food availability was clearly illustrated in this study with 21% of the total orangutan feeding time being allocated to feeding on cultivated fruits. As forests are increasingly converted to cultivation, humans and orangutans are predicted to come into conflict more frequently. This study reveals orangutan adaptations for coexisting with humans, e.g. changes in temporal foraging patterns, which should be used for guiding the development of specific human-wildlife conflict mitigation strategies to lessen future crop-raiding and conflicts.

With the extirpation of tigers from the Indonesian island of Java in the 1980s, the endemic and Critically Endangered Javan leopard is the island's last remaining large carnivore. Yet despite this, it has received little conservation attention and its population status and distribution remains poorly known. Using Maxent modeling, we predicted the locations of suitable leopard landscapes throughout the island of Java based on 228 verified Javan leopard samples and as a function of seven environmental variables. The identified landscapes covered over 1 million hectares, representing less than 9% of the island. Direct evidence of Javan leopard was confirmed from 22 of the 29 identified landscapes and included all national parks, which our analysis revealed as the single most important land type. Our study also emphasized the importance of maintaining connectivity between protected areas and human-modified landscapes because adjacent production forests and secondary forests were found to provide vital extensions for several Javan leopard subpopulations. Our predictive map greatly improves those previously produced by the Government of Indonesia's Javan Leopard Action Plan and the IUCN global leopard distribution assessment. It shares only a 32% overlap with the IUCN range predictions, adds six new priority landscapes, all with confirmed presence of Javan leopard, and reveals an island-wide leopard population that occurs in several highly fragmented landscapes, which are far more isolated than previously thought. Our study provides reliable information on where conservation efforts must be prioritized both inside and outside of the protected area network to safeguard Java's last remaining large carnivore.

This study determines whether the establishment of tropical protected areas (PAs) has led to a reduction in deforestation within their boundaries or whether deforestation has been displaced to adjacent unprotected areas: a process termed neighbourhood leakage. Sumatra, Indonesia. We processed and analysed 98 corresponding LANDSAT satellite images with a c. 800 m² resolution to map deforestation from 1990 to 2000 across 440,000 km² on the main island of Sumatra and the smaller island of Siberut. We compared deforestation rates across three categories of land: (1) within PAs; (2) in adjacent unprotected land lying with 10 km of PA boundaries; and (3) within the wider unprotected landscape. We used the statistical method of propensity score matching to predict the deforestation that would have been observed had there been no PAs and to control for the generally remote locations in which Sumatran PAs were established. During the period 1990-2000 deforestation rates were found to be lower inside PAs than in adjacent unprotected areas or in the wider landscape. Deforestation rates were also found to be lower in adjacent unprotected areas than in the wider landscape. Sumatran PAs have lower deforestation rates than unprotected areas. Furthermore, a reduction in deforestation rates inside Sumatran PAs has promoted protection, rather than deforestation, in adjacent unprotected land lying within 10 km of PA boundaries. Despite this positive evaluation, deforestation and logging have not halted within the boundaries of Sumatran PAs. Therefore the long-term viability of Sumatran forests remains open to question.

1. Crop raiding by great apes is an emerging conservation issue across their range. It is important because it involves highly threatened species that can cause significant economic damage and be killed in retribution. Yet, to date, no quantitative study has sought to test possible solutions for preventing this form of human-wildlife conflict. 2. From February 2007 to August 2009, we monitored crop-raiding patterns across a Sumatran agroforest landscape to determine background levels of human-orangutan conflict. We also intensively monitored a subset of 50 farms to assess changes in farmer attitudes towards orangutan management; differences between farmer reported and independently enumerated monetary loss from crop raiding; and the effectiveness of mitigation techniques in reducing orangutan crop raiding on 35 treatment farms (25 trialling noise deterrents and 10 tri ailing tree nets) in comparison with 15 control farms over a pre-trial (12 month) and a trial (18 month) phase. Five months after the trials had ended, the ongoing use or uptake of the techniques were assessed. 3. Across the wider landscape, background levels of mean daily orangutan crop-raiding incidents per month (± SE) farms did not significantly differ between the pre-trial (9-1 ± 3-7) and trial (7-1 ± 4-3) phases, whilst on the 35 treatment farms it reduced significantly. Furthermore, crop yield increased (+ 60-8%) on the netted trial trees, but reduced (-27.4%) on the control farm trees.Despite this, there was no subsequent use of this technique, unlike those farmers (40%) who continued using the less-effective noise deterrents. 4. Farmer participation in the project yielded unexpected and positive attitude changes, from preferring orangutan removal (pre-trial) to in situ management with crop protection measures (posttrial).However, project participation may have increased farmer expectations of receiving compensation because the treatment farmers consistently overestimated their crop losses, unlike the control farmers who did not. 5.Synthesis and applications.Whilst human-orangutan conflicts caused substantial losses to local livelihoods, the identification of an effective mitigation method (nets) neither guaranteed its continued use nor uptake. Developing easy to install nets for valuable tree crops is therefore recommended.Nevertheless, the project intervention efforts did create benign farmer attitudes towards orangutan management, an essential prerequisite for managing large-bodied mammals in conflict with people.

Threatened species become increasingly difficult to detect as their populations decline. Managers of such cryptic threatened species face several dilemmas: if they are not sure the species is present, should they continue to manage for that species or invest the limited resources in surveying? We find optimal solutions to this problem using a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process and rules of thumb derived from an analytical approximation. We discover that managing a protected area for a cryptic threatened species can be optimal even if we are not sure the species is present. The more threatened and valuable the species is, relative to the costs of management, the more likely we are to manage this species without determining its continued persistence by using surveys. If a species remains unseen, our belief in the persistence of the species declines to a point where the optimal strategy is to shift resources from saving the species to surveying for it. Finally, when surveys lead to a sufficiently low belief that the species is extant, we surrender resources to other conservation actions. We illustrate our findings with a case study using parameters based on the critically endangered Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae), and we generate rules of thumb on how to allocate conservation effort for any cryptic species. Using Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes in conservation science, we determine the conditions under which it is better to abandon management for that species because our belief that it continues to exist is too low.