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Estimates and projections of diagnosed incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the United States have been highly inconsistent across published studies. Although it is generally acknowledged that AF incidence and prevalence are increasing due to growing numbers of older people in the U.S. population, estimates of the rate of expected growth have varied widely. Reasons for these variations include differences in study design, covered time period, birth cohort, and temporal effects, as well as improvements in AF diagnosis due to increased use of diagnostic tools and health care awareness. The objective of this study was to estimate and project the incidence and prevalence of diagnosed AF in the United States out to 2030. A large health insurance claims database for the years 2001 to 2008, representing a geographically diverse 5% of the U.S. population, was used in this study. The trend and growth rate in AF incidence and prevalence was projected by a dynamic age-period cohort simulation progression model that included all diagnosed AF cases in future prevalence projections regardless of follow-up treatment, as well as those cases expected to be chronic in nature. Results from the model showed that AF incidence will double, from 1.2 million cases in 2010 to 2.6 million cases in 2030. Given this increase in incidence, AF prevalence is projected to increase from 5.2 million in 2010 to 12.1 million cases in 2030. The effect of uncertainty in model parameters was explored in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Variability in future trends in AF incidence and recurrence rates has the greatest impact on the projected estimates of chronic AF prevalence. It can be concluded that both incidence and prevalence of AF are likely to rise from 2010 to 2030, but there exists a wide range of uncertainty around the magnitude of future trends.

Background Findings from randomized clinical trials may have limited generalizability to patients treated in routine clinical practice. This study examined the effectiveness of first-line palbociclib plus letrozole versus letrozole alone on survival outcomes in patients with hormone receptor–positive (HR+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor–negative (HER2−) metastatic breast cancer (MBC) treated in routine clinical practice in the USA. Patients and methods This was a retrospective observational analysis of electronic health records within the Flatiron Health Analytic Database. A total of 1430 patients with ≥ 3 months of follow-up received palbociclib plus letrozole or letrozole alone in the first-line setting between February 3, 2015, and February 28, 2019. Stabilized inverse probability treatment weighting (sIPTW) was used to balance baseline demographic and clinical characteristics. Real-world progression-free survival (rwPFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed. Results After sIPTW adjustment, median follow-up was 24.2 months (interquartile range [IQR], 14.2–34.9) in the palbociclib group and 23.3 months (IQR, 12.7–34.3) in those taking letrozole alone. Palbociclib combination treatment was associated with significantly longer median rwPFS compared to letrozole alone (20.0 vs 11.9 months; hazard ratio [HR], 0.58; 95% CI, 0.49–0.69; P  < 0.0001). Median OS was not reached in the palbociclib group and was 43.1 months with letrozole alone (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53–0.82; P  = 0.0002). The 2-year OS rate was 78.3% in the palbociclib group and 68.0% with letrozole alone. A propensity score matching analysis showed similar results. Conclusions In this “real-world” population of patients with HR+/HER2− MBC, palbociclib in combination with endocrine therapy was associated with improved survival outcomes compared with patients treated with letrozole alone in the first-line setting. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov; NCT04176354

To assess insomnia symptoms in adolescents with probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and to determine whether there are longitudinal and reciprocal associations between insomnia, PTSD, and depressive symptoms. Participants were 1,492 adolescent survivors who had been exposed to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. Insomnia, PTSD, and depressive symptoms were measured at 12 months (T1, n = 1407), 18 months (T2, n = 1335), and 24 months (T3, n = 1361) postearthquake by self-report questionnaires. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) models were used to examine the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of insomnia with PTSD and depression. Insomnia, PTSD, and depressive symptoms were common among adolescent survivors. Among participants with probable PTSD, approximately 47% (48.5%, T1; 48.1%, T2; and 44.2%, T3) reported difficulty falling asleep or difficulty maintaining sleep. Cross-sectional analyses showed that insomnia co-occurred with PTSD (odds ratio [OR] = 2.04) and depressive symptoms (OR = 2.10). Longitudinal analyses revealed that probable PTSD (OR = 1.50) and depression (OR = 1.42) predicted the incidence of insomnia; in turn, insomnia predicted the incidence of depression (OR = 1.65) over time. Furthermore, PTSD predicted (OR = 3.11) and was predicted (OR = 3.25) by depressive symptoms. There is a bidirectional relationship between insomnia, PTSD, and depressive symptoms. This suggests that insomnia, PTSD, and depression are intertwined over time.

Examine the relationships between blood lead concentrations and children's intelligence quotient (IQ) and school performance. Participants were 1341 children (738 boys and 603 girls) from Jintan, China. Blood lead concentrations were measured when children were 3-5 years old. IQ was assessed using the Chinese version and norms of the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence - Revised when children were 6 years old. School performance was assessed by standardized city tests on 3 major subjects (Chinese, Math, and English [as a foreign language]) when children were age 8-10 years. Mean blood lead concentration was 6.43 µg/dL (SD = 2.64). For blood lead concentrations, 7.8% of children (n = 105) had ≥10.0 µg/dL, 13.8% (n = 185) had 8.0 to <10.0 µg/dL, and 78.4% (n = 1051) had <8.0 µg/dL. Compared to children with blood lead concentrations <8 µg/dL, those with blood lead concentrations ≥8 µg/dL scored 2-3 points lower in IQ and 5-6 points lower in school tests. There were no significant differences in IQ or school tests between children with blood lead concentrations groups 8-10 and ≥10 µg/dL. After adjustment for child and family characteristics and IQ, blood lead concentrations ≥10 µg/dL vs <8 µg/dL at ages 3-5 years was associated with reduced scores on school tests at age 8-10 years (Chinese, β = -3.54, 95%CI = -6.46, -0.63; Math, β = -4.63, 95%CI = -7.86, -1.40; English, β = -4.66, 95%CI = -8.09, -1.23). IQ partially mediated the relationship between elevated blood lead concentrations and later school performance. Findings support that blood lead concentrations in early childhood, even <10 µg/dL, have a long-term negative impact on cognitive development. The association between blood lead concentrations 8-10 µg/dL and cognitive development needs further study in Chinese children and children from other developing countries.

Purpose “Double Reduction” Policy requires schools to reduce the burden of excessive homework and off-campus training for Chinese students to reduce their academic stress and promote mental health. We conducted a study in compulsory education students before and after the “Double Reduction” Policy to explore changes in mental health problems and relevant influential factors. Methods A total of 28,398 elementary and junior high school students completed both waves of the survey through electronic questionnaires. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Patient Heath Questionnaire (PHQ-9), and anxiety symptoms were assessed using the Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale (GDA-7). Demographic information was evaluated at baseline, and “Double Reduction” related factors and negative life events were measured at follow up. Results The overall depression and anxiety levels significantly decreased after the “Double Reduction” Policy. Girls, poor parental marital quality, chronic physical illness, and psychiatric family history were related to increased occurrence of mental health. Sleep duration > 8 h/night, reduced homework, more extracurricular activities more time with parents, and reduced academic stress were protective factors against mental health problems. Conclusions The “Double Reduction” Policy has improved the mental health symptoms of students to a certain extent. Appropriately increasing sleep time, participating in more extracurricular activities and parental involvement, and reducing the burden of homework are effective ways to promote the development of students’ mental health.

The 8-item Youth Self-rated Insomnia Scale (YSIS) was developed to assess insomnia severity in the past month among youths. The YSIS has satisfactory psychometric properties in the general adolescent population. This study examined psychometric properties of the YSIS in a large sample of adolescent psychiatric patients. A total of 536 patients aged 10–19 years were consecutively recruited from the outpatient department of Shandong Mental Health Center between December 2021 and March 2022. Patients completed a structured questionnaire consisting of the YSIS scale and questions about sleep duration, nightmares, psychiatric history, depression, psychiatric and sleep medications, and demographics. Patients were diagnosed following the ICD-10 criteria. Of the participants, the mean age was 15.30 years (SD = 1.95), 61.0% were female, 60.9% were diagnosed with mood disorders, 65.7% were on antidepressants, and 49.0% were on anxiolytics or hypnotics. The mean YSIS score was 22.6 (SD = 8.07). Coefficient omega was 0.84. Exploratory factor analysis revealed one factor and two correlated residuals. The YSIS scores were significantly correlated with depression scores (r = 0.68) and significantly increased with sleep onset latency, short sleep duration, nightmare frequency, and sleep medication use. The YSIS demonstrated satisfactory internal consistency reliability, construct validity, and criteria-related validity in adolescent psychiatric patients. The YSIS appears to be a reliable and valid scale for measuring insomnia severity in adolescent psychiatric patients.

Data on real-world effectiveness of cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6 inhibitor combination therapy versus endocrine therapy alone are limited. The Flatiron Health Analytic Database was used to assess overall survival (OS) in patients with hormone receptor–positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–negative (HR+/HER2−) metastatic breast cancer (MBC) treated with first-line palbociclib plus an aromatase inhibitor (AI) versus an AI alone in routine US clinical practice. In total, 2888 patients initiated treatment during February 3, 2015–March 31, 2020, with a potential ≥6-month follow-up (cutoff date, September 30, 2020). After stabilized inverse probability treatment weighting, median OS (95% CI) is significantly longer among palbociclib versus AI recipients (49.1 [45.2–57.7] versus 43.2 [37.6–48.0] months; hazard ratio, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.65–0.87]; P < 0.0001). Progression-free survival (95% CI) is 19.3 (17.5–20.7) versus 13.9 (12.5–15.2) months, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.62–0.78]; P < 0.0001). These data support first-line palbociclib plus an AI treatment for HR+/HER2− MBC.(Trial number NCT05361655).

Synthetic octacalcium phosphate (OCP) activates bone tissue-related cells, such as osteoblasts, osteoclasts, and vascular endothelial cells. However, the effect of OCP on tendon-related cell activation remains unknown. This study examined the response of rat tendon stem/progenitor cells (TSPCs) to OCP and related calcium phosphate crystals in vitro. TSPCs were cultured with OCP and Ca-deficient hydroxyapatite (CDHA) obtained from the original OCP hydrolysis to assess the activity of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and the expression of osteogenesis-related genes. Compared with CDHA, the effect of OCP on promoting the osteogenic differentiation of TSPCs was apparent: the ALP activity and mRNA expression of RUNX2, Col1a1, OCN, and OPN were higher in OCP than in CDHA. To estimate the changes in the chemical environment caused by OCP and CDHA, we measured the calcium ion (Ca2+) and inorganic phosphate (Pi) ion concentrations and pH values of the TSPCs medium. The results suggest that the difference in the osteogenic differentiation of the TSPCs is related to the ionic environment induced by OCP and CDHA, which could be related to the progress of OCP hydrolysis into CDHA. These results support the previous in vivo observation that OCP has the healing function of rabbit rotator cuff tendon in vivo.

China has a high prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) and a consequently high burden of disease with respect to cervical cancer. The HPV vaccine has proved to be effective in preventing cervical cancer and is now a part of routine immunization programs worldwide. It has also proved to be cost effective. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of 2-, 4-, and 9-valent HPV vaccines (hereafter, HPV2, 4 or 9) combined with current screening strategies in China. A Markov model was developed for a cohort of 100,000 HPV-free girls to simulate the natural history to HPV infection. Three recommended screening methods (1. liquid-based cytology test + HPV DNA test; 2. pap smear cytology test + HPV DNA test; 3. visual inspection with acetic acid) and three types of HPV vaccination program (HPV2/4/9) were incorporated into 15 intervention options, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated to determine the dominant strategies. Costs, transition probabilities and utilities were obtained from a review of the literature and national databases. One-way sensitivity analyses and threshold analyses were performed for key variables in different vaccination scenarios. HPV9 combined with screening showed the highest health impact in terms of reducing HPV-related diseases and increasing the number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Under the current thresholds of willingness to pay (WTP, 3 times the per capita GDP or USD$ 23,880), HPV4/9 proved highly cost effective, while HPV2 combined with screening cost more and was less cost effective. Only when screening coverage increased to 60% ~ 70% did the HPV2 and screening combination strategy become economically feasible. The combination of the HPV4/9 vaccine with current screening strategies for adolescent girls was highly cost-effective and had a significant impact on reducing the HPV infection-related disease burden in Mainland China.

Background Somatic complaints and suicidal behavior are prevalent in adolescents. However, longitudinal data examining the associations between somatic symptoms and suicidal behaviors in Chinese adolescents are limited. The present study aims to investigate the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between somatic symptoms and suicidal behavior in a large cohort of Chinese adolescents. Methods A total of 6,934 Chinese teenagers were assessed at baseline and one year later. Somatic symptoms were assessed using the somatic complaints subscale of the Youth Self-Report. A self-administered questionnaire was utilized to measure suicidal behavior (suicidal ideation or suicide attempt), depressive symptoms, and adolescent and family covariates. Logistic regression models were utilized to examine the relationships between somatic symptoms and suicidal behavior. Results Both cross-sectional and longitudinal data analyses showed that the prevalence rates of suicidal behavior were significantly increased with the severity of somatic symptoms (score range 0–14). After adjusting for demographic characteristics and depressive symptoms, somatic symptom scores of 4–5 and ≥ 6 were associated with increased odds of suicidal behavior at baseline (AOR = 1.93 and 2.32) and at one-year follow-up (AOR = 1.33 and 1.59). Adolescents with no suicidal behavior at baseline but somatic symptom scores of ≥ 6 were 1.70 times more likely to report newly incident suicidal behavior within the year of follow-up. Conclusions Somatic symptoms independently predict suicidal behavior in adolescents. This finding underscores the need to assess and manage somatic complaints for suicide prevention among adolescents.