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Objectives. To determine factors that explain the higher Black:White cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates among US adults. Methods. We analyzed data from the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study from 2003 to 2017 to estimate Black:White hazard ratios (HRs) for CVD mortality within subgroups younger than 65 years and aged 65 years or older. Results. Among 29 054 participants, 41.0% who were Black and 54.9% who were women, 1549 CVD deaths occurred. Among participants younger than 65 years, the demographic-adjusted Black:White CVD mortality HR was 2.23 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.87, 2.65) and 1.21 (95% CI = 1.00, 1.47) after full adjustment. Among participants aged 65 years or older, the demographic-adjusted Black:White CVD mortality HR was 1.58 (95% CI = 1.39, 1.79) and 1.12 (95% CI = 0.97, 1.29) after full adjustment. When we used mediation analysis, socioeconomic status explained 21.2% (95% CI = 13.6%, 31.4%) and 38.0% (95% CI = 20.9%, 61.7%) of the Black:White CVD mortality risk difference among participants younger than 65 years and aged 65 years or older, respectively. CVD risk factors explained 56.6% (95% CI = 42.0%, 77.2%) and 41.3% (95% CI = 22.9%, 65.3%) of the Black:White CVD mortality difference for participants younger than 65 years and aged 65 years or older, respectively. Conclusions. The higher Black:White CVD mortality risk is primarily explained by racial differences in socioeconomic status and CVD risk factors.

Abstract Context The peptide neurotensin is implicated in insulin resistance, diabetes mellitus (DM), and cardiovascular disease. Objective We studied the association of neurotensin’s stable precursor, pro-neurotensin/neuromedin N (pro-NT/NMN) with incident metabolic syndrome (MetS) and DM. Methods We included 3772 participants from the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study who completed the baseline exam (2003-2007), the follow-up exam (2013-2016), and had pro-NT/NMN measured by immunoassay. Weighted logistic regression models were fitted to incident DM, incident MetS, and each MetS component, separately, incorporating demographics, metabolic risk factors, homeostasis model of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and diet scores. Incident MetS was defined by 3 or more harmonized criteria at follow-up in those with fewer than 3 at baseline. Incident DM was defined by use of hypoglycemic drugs/insulin, fasting glucose 126 mg/dL or greater, or random glucose 200 mg/dL or greater in those without these at baseline. Results Median (IQR) plasma pro-NT/NMN was 160 pmol/L (118-218 pmol/L). A total of 564 (of 2770 without baseline MetS) participants developed MetS, and 407 (of 3030 without baseline DM) developed DM. Per SD higher log-pro-NT/NMN, the demographic-adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% CI of incident MetS was 1.22 (1.11-1.35), 1.16 (1.00-1.35) for incident low high-density lipoprotein (HDL), and 1.25 (1.11-1.40) for incident dysglycemia. The association of pro-NT/NMN with MetS was attenuated in the model adding HOMA-IR (OR per SD log-pro-NT/NMN 1.14; 95% CI, 1.00-1.30). There was no association with incident DM (OR per SD log-pro-NT/NMN 1.06; 95% CI, 0.94-1.19). Conclusion Pro-NT/NMN was associated with MetS and 2 components, dysglycemia and low HDL, likely explained by insulin resistance.

Abstract Context Natriuretic peptide concentrations are inversely associated with risk of diabetes mellitus and may be protective from metabolic dysfunction. Objective We studied associations of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) with incident diabetes, metabolic syndrome (MetS), and MetS components. Methods A total of 2899 participants with baseline (2003-2007) and follow-up (2013-2016) examinations and baseline NT-proBNP measurement in the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke study. Logistic regression models were fitted to incident MetS, MetS components, and diabetes; covariates included demographics, risk and laboratory factors. Incident diabetes was defined as fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL, random glucose ≥200 mg/dL, or use of insulin or hypoglycemic drugs at follow-up but not baseline. Incident MetS was defined as participants with ≥3 harmonized criteria at follow-up and <3 at baseline. Results A total of 310 participants (2364 at risk) developed diabetes and 361 (2059 at risk) developed MetS over a mean 9.4 years of follow-up. NT-proBNP was inversely associated with odds of incident diabetes (fully adjusted OR per SD higher log NT-proBNP 0.80, 95% CI 0.69-0.93) and MetS in the highest vs lowest quartile only (fully adjusted OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.37-0.92); the linear association with incident MetS was not statistically significant. NT-proBNP was inversely associated with incident dysglycemia in all models (fully adjusted OR per SD log NT-proBNP 0.65, 95% CI 0.53-0.79), but not with other MetS components. Effect modification by sex, race, age, or body mass index was not observed. Conclusion NT-proBNP was inversely associated with odds of diabetes, MetS, and the MetS dysglycemia component. The metabolic implications of B-type natriuretic peptides appear important for glycemic homeostasis.

Individuals with chronic low back pain (cLBP) frequently report sleep disturbances. Living in a neighborhood characterized by low-socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with a variety of negative health outcomes, including poor sleep. Whether low-neighborhood SES exacerbates sleep disturbances of people with cLBP, relative to pain-free individuals, has not previously been observed. This study compared associations between neighborhood-level SES, pain-status (cLBP vs. pain-free), and daily sleep metrics in 117 adults (cLBP = 82, pain-free = 35). Neighborhood-level SES was gathered from Neighborhood Atlas, which provides a composite measurement of overall neighborhood deprivation (e.g. area deprivation index). Individuals completed home sleep monitoring for 7-consecutive days/nights. Neighborhood SES and pain-status were tested as predictors of actigraphic sleep variables (e.g., sleep efficiency). Analyses revealed neighborhood-level SES and neighborhood-level SES*pain-status interaction significantly impacted objective sleep quality. These findings provide initial support for the negative impact of low neighborhood-level SES and chronic pain on sleep quality.

Background Hypertension prevalence among the overall US adult population has been relatively stable during the last two decades. However, whether this stabilization has occurred across rural-urban communities and across different geographic regions is unknown, particularly among older adults with diabetes who are likely to have concomitant cardiovascular risk factors. Methods This serial cross-sectional analysis used the 5% national sample of Medicare administrative claims data ( n  = 3,516,541) to examine temporal trends (2005–2017) in diagnosed hypertension among older adults with diabetes, across urban-rural communities and US census regions (Northeast, Midwest, South, and West). Joinpoint regression was used to obtain annual percent change (APC) in hypertension prevalence across rural-urban communities and geographic regions, and multivariable adjusted regression was used to assess associations between rural-urban communities and hypertension prevalence. Results The APC in the prevalence of hypertension was higher during 2005–2010, and there was a slowdown in the increase during 2011–2017 across all regions, with significant variations across rural-urban communities within each of the regions. In the regression analysis, in the adjusted model, older adults living in non-core (most rural) areas in the Midwest (PR = 0.988, 95% CI: 0.981–0.995) and West (PR = 0.935, 95% CI: 0.923–0.946) had lower hypertension prevalence than their regional counterparts living in large central metro areas. Conclusions Although the magnitudes of these associations are small, differences in hypertension prevalence across rural-urban areas and geographic regions may have implications for targeted interventions to improve chronic disease prevention and management.

Background Biopsychosocial factors above and beyond pathoanatomical changes likely contribute to the severity of chronic low back pain. A pro-nociceptive endogenous pain modulatory balance (↓inhibition and ↑facilitation) may be an important contributor to chronic low back pain severity and physical function; however, additional research is needed to address this possibility. The objective of this study was to determine whether quantitative sensory tests of endogenous pain inhibition and facilitation prospectively predict movement-evoked pain and cLBP severity self-reported on a validated questionnaire. Methods One hundred thirty-four individuals with chronic low back pain were enrolled in this two-session study. During the first study session, temporal summation of mechanical pain and conditioned pain modulation were assessed at the lumbar spine to determine endogenous pain facilitation and inhibition, respectively. One week later, participants returned for a second study session whereby they reported their pain severity and pain interference using the Brief Pain Inventory-Short Form. Movement-evoked pain and physical function capacity were assessed upon completion of the balance, walking, and transition from sit to stand tests of the Short Physical Performance Battery. Results Temporal summation of mechanical pain, but not conditioned pain modulation, significantly and prospectively predicted greater movement-evoked pain and poorer physical function on the Short Physical Performance Battery. Neither temporal summation nor conditioned pain modulation were significantly related to self-reported pain severity or pain interference on the Brief Pain Inventory-Short Form. Conclusions Findings suggest that a pro-nociceptive pain modulatory balance characterized by enhanced pain facilitation may be an important driver of movement-evoked pain severity and poor physical function in individuals with chronic low back pain.

Background The impact of young drivers’ motor vehicle crashes (MVC) is substantial, with young drivers constituting only 14% of the US population, but contributing to 30% of all fatal and nonfatal injuries due to MVCs and 35% ($25 billion) of the all medical and lost productivity costs. The current best-practice policy approach, Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) programs, are effective primarily by delaying licensure and restricting crash opportunity. There is a critical need for interventions that target families to complement GDL. Consequently, we will determine if a comprehensive parent-teen intervention, the Drivingly Program, reduces teens’ risk for a police-reported MVC in the first 12 months of licensure. Drivingly is based on strong preliminary data and targets multiple risk and protective factors by delivering intervention content to teens, and their parents, at the learner and early independent licensing phases. Methods Eligible participants are aged 16-17.33 years of age, have a learner’s permit in Pennsylvania, have practiced no more than 10 h, and have at least one parent/caregiver supervising. Participants are recruited from the general community and through the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia’s Recruitment Enhancement Core. Teen-parent dyads are randomized 1:1 to Drivingly or usual practice control group. Drivingly participants receive access to an online curriculum which has 16 lessons for parents and 13 for teens and an online logbook; website usage is tracked. Parents receive two, brief, psychoeducational sessions with a trained health coach and teens receive an on-road driving intervention and feedback session after 4.5 months in the study and access to DriverZed, the AAA Foundation’s online hazard training program. Teens complete surveys at baseline, 3 months post-baseline, at licensure, 3months post-licensure, 6 months post-licensure, and 12 months post-licensure. Parents complete surveys at baseline, 3 months post-baseline, and at teen licensure. The primary end-point is police-reported MVCs within the first 12 months of licensure; crash data are provided by the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation. Discussion Most evaluations of teen driver safety programs have significant methodological limitations including lack of random assignment, insufficient statistical power, and reliance on self-reported MVCs instead of police reports. Results will identify pragmatic and sustainable solutions for MVC prevention in adolescence. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov # NCT03639753.

Public health research often concerns relationships between exposures and correlated count outcomes. When counts exhibit more 0s than expected under Poisson sampling, the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model with random effects may be used. However, the latent class formulation of the ZIP model can make marginal inference on the population sampled challenging. The paper presents a marginalized ZIP model with random effects to model directly the mean of the mixture distribution consisting of 'susceptible' individuals and excess 0s, providing straightforward inference for overall exposure effects. Simulations evaluate finite sample properties, and the new methods are applied to a motivational interviewing-based safer sex intervention trial, designed to reduce the number of unprotected sexual acts, to illustrate the new methods.

We introduce and evaluate the oblique random survival forest (ORSF). The ORSF is an ensemble method for right-censored survival data that uses linear combinations of input variables to recursively partition a set of training data. Regularized Cox proportional hazard models are used to identify linear combinations of input variables in each recursive partitioning step. Benchmark results using simulated and real data indicate that the ORSF’s predicted risk function has high prognostic value in comparison to random survival forests, conditional inference forests, regression and boosting. In an application to data from the Jackson Heart Study, we demonstrate variable and partial dependence using the ORSF and highlight characteristics of its ten-year predicted risk function for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events (ASCVD; stroke, coronary heart disease). We present visualizations comparing variable and partial effect estimation according to the ORSF, the conditional inference forest, and the Pooled Cohort Risk equations. The obliqueRSF R package, which provides functions to fit the ORSF and create variable and partial dependence plots, is available on the comprehensive R archive network (CRAN).

Background Firearms injuries present a major pediatric public health challenge in the United States. This study protocol describes research to develop and then conduct a randomized clinical trial to evaluate ShootSafe, an interactive, engaging, educational website to teach children firearms safety. ShootSafe has three primary goals: (a) teach children basic knowledge and skills needed to hunt, shoot, and use firearms safely; (b) help children learn and hone critical cognitive skills of impulse control and hypothetical thinking needed to use firearms safely; and (c) alter children’s perceptions about their own vulnerability and susceptibility to firearms-related injuries, the severity of those injuries, and their perceived norms about peer behavior surrounding firearms use. ShootSafe will accomplish these goals through a combination of interactive games plus short, impactful testimonial videos and short expert-led educational videos. Methods Following website development, ShootSafe will be evaluated through a randomized controlled trial with 162 children ages 10–12, randomly assigning children to engage in ShootSafe or an active control website. Multiple self-report, computer-based, and behavioral measures will assess functioning at baseline, immediately following training, and at 4-month follow-up. Four sets of outcomes will be considered: firearms safety knowledge; cognitive skills in impulse control and hypothetical thinking; perceptions about firearms safety; and simulated behavior when handling, storing and transporting firearms. Training in both conditions will comprise two 45-min sessions. Discussion If results are as hypothesized, ShootSafe offers potential as a theory-based program to teach children firearms safety in an accessible, engaging and educational manner. Translation into practice is highly feasible. Trial registration The study protocol was registered on 11/10/20 at clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT04622943 ).